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Mr Hanki's Throne

26 Aug 2004, 06:39 PM

Go Rams!!!

Preseason pick of Utah for MWC seems justified. The MWC actually is scary this year. Who can't win the title. Then next year sees the Horny Toads....

Just smile Coach Lubick. It's gonna be that kind of season.

Mr Hanki's Throne

26 Aug 2004, 06:49 PM

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/preview04/news/story?id=1867399

Texas A&M at Utah (Thurs., Sept. 2)
Let's see if we have this straight -- Everyone is talking about how good Utah is and A&M is thinking it can make a statement with a win here. Welcome to Bizarro World.

Colorado State vs Utah (Sat., Nov. 6)
Say Utah is undefeated here, do BCS officials root for Colorado State?

Mach1

27 Aug 2004, 08:25 AM

Say Utah is undefeated here, do BCS officials root for Colorado State?Um, yes.

Especially if no other team is undefeated then. The BCS is definatly an elitist group. Only the "top" level teams need apply. The interesting thing is with the Big East so depleted, West Virginia may go undefeated (it's possible with their schedule) and still not be selected for the championship. The Big East is still owed a BCS bowl game, but I doubt any Big East team could be selected for the Orange Bowl this year. Unless you're Notre Dame, or in the Big 10, Big 12, Pac-10, ACC or SEC, forget it. I really also don't see how any team besides USC could really get into the title game from the Pac-10 unless they're the only ones undefeated.

Having said that, I'd love to see Utah (or any other "mid-major" school) force their way into the BCS and beat whomever they play. Maybe then we could have a playoff.

Mr Hanki's Throne

27 Aug 2004, 10:45 AM

ESPN's BCS beat reporter last year described NCAA Div IA conferences as either being "equity" or "non-equity" conferences. It throws in their face more directly the financial aspect of BCS and how it reinforces the divisions between Div IA-E and Div IA-NE.

Mr Hanki's Throne

27 Aug 2004, 12:46 PM

Last year's final Wilson's computer rankings (http://homepages.cae.wisc.edu/~dwilson/byrate.html) are shown below. I like these rankings because Wilson makes the computer code available, so you can discern what really is going into the rating.

Top 5:
1 - LSU
2 - USC
3 - Georgia
4 - Ohio State
5 - Miami, FL
tied - Miami, OH

20 - Utah
52 - Colorado State
54 - New Mexico
59 - UNLV
59 - Air Force
70 - BYU
75 - San Diego State
83 - Wyoming

Last year's conference arraignments, average conference ratings were:

835 - ACC
832 - SEC
825 - Pac 10
819 - Big 10
812 - Big 12
797 - MWC
794 - Big East
781 - Div IA Indep
748 - MAC
746 - WAC
745 - CUSA
643 - Sun Belt

NoodlesMacintosh

30 Aug 2004, 01:58 AM

The MWC actually is scary this year. Who can't win the title.

I'd be genuinely surprised if anyone besides Utah or Colorado State does. Air Force was basically exposed on national television last year, and will need a new game plan to really dominate. BYU is in a doldrum. I refuse to take New Mexico seriously.

I'm pulling for the Utes, but I'd like to see the Rams and Falcons do well. With the Cougars down (getting shut out...by their eternal rivals...at home...my goodness...), other teams need to step up to give the Mountain West some credibility, and I think Utah, Colorado State, and Air Force are those teams. Sure, the Lobos might have a really good year, but then it might also rain frogs in Chile.

Mr Hanki's Throne

30 Aug 2004, 03:51 PM

30 Aug

Utah jump two spots in coaches' poll, past UVA and UMD, despite none of the three teams having seen any action.

Also recieving votes were BYU, San Diego St, and Colorado St.

Mr Hanki's Throne

31 Aug 2004, 01:18 PM

NoodlesMacintosh

31 Aug 2004, 01:41 PM

Mr Hanki's Throne

31 Aug 2004, 04:33 PM

This week's matches, (with Wilson's computer rankings from last year):

Texas A&M (74) vs. Utah (20) Thursday 5:30 pm MDT
Washington St (14) vs. New Mexico (54) Friday 6:00 pm MDT
California (31) vs. Air Force (59) Saturday 10:00 am MDT
Appalachian St (159) vs Wyoming (83) Saturday 1:00 pm MDT
Colorado St (52) vs Colorado (56) Saturday 6:00 pm MDT
Idaho St (111) vs San Diego St (75) Saturday 7:00 pm MDT
Notre Dame (41) vs BYU (70) Saturday 7:15 pm MDT
UNLV (59) vs Tennessee (17) Sunday 6:00 pm MDT

I'd go with Wyoming as a clear chance for MWC, and UNLV as a clear defeat. I'd edge toward Utah over Texas A&M (but size can equalize things) and SDSt over Idaho St. I think it'd be a major accomplishment for CSU to beat CU, because CU's main threat from last year, the deep pass, will have an untested defence to go against. AFA over Cal is a fair upset pick, because Cal has figured out how to lose these MWC games in the past. BYU may suck right now, but so does Notre Dame, so this is a coin flip. New Mexico over WashSt seems the most remote MWC upset possibility.

Footer Phooter

02 Sep 2004, 09:51 PM

Is A&M really this bad, or is Utah much better than I gave them credit for?

Mach1

03 Sep 2004, 09:10 AM

Is A&M really this bad, or is Utah much better than I gave them credit for?Little bit of both, I think. The problem is that Utah doesn't really play anyone of real quality in their entire schedule this year so we won't really be able to tell until the bowl season. They have a good chance to go undefeated, and they'll probably make a real push to be involved in a BCS bowl, especially if they play like they did last night and keep hitting on all cylinders. Urban Meyer's a great coach; he's not going to be at Utah for very long.

As for A&M, they have a lot of problems. The Aggies better get used to this type of result all season. If they allow Franchione to stay, however, they should be in good shape in a few years. I heard he did a great job recruiting last year (his first recruiting class), so once those players mature A&M should be fine.

Mr Hanki's Throne

05 Sep 2004, 11:11 AM

Utah beat Texas A&M 41-21. In winning Utah had an edge 370-270 in passing yards (11.2-6.0 per play); 212-167 in rushing yards (4.7-5.4 per play).

Colorado State was denied on the last play, losing to Colorado 24-27. In losing, CSU had a 403-117 edge in passing yards (9.6-4.7 per play); and a big 44-256 disadvantage in rushing yards (1.6-5.8 per play).

New Mexico lost to Washington State 17-21. In losing, the Lobos nearly matched the Cougars in passing yards 229-240 (6.7-5.6 per play); and a huge advantage in rushing 186-31 (4.3-1.0 per play).

San Diego State beat Idaho State 38-21. In winning, the Aztecs were outthrown with 291-352 passing yards (6.9-5.0 per play); but had a huge advantage in rushing yards 290-46 (5.7-2.7 per play).

Air Force lost to California 14-56. In losing, the Falcons were outthrown 89-231 in passing yards (4.7-11.0 per play); and were outrushed 182-342 (3.4-7.8 per play).

Brigham Young beat Notre Dame 20-17. In winning, the Cougars matched the Irish in passing 263-265 yards (7.1-5.3 per play); and were equally inept in running 22-11 yards (0.6-0.5 per play).

Wyoming beat Appalachian State 42-15. In winning, the Cowboys outpassed 271-200 yards (8.0-5.9 per play); dominated in rushing 266-30 (5.2-0.9 per play).

UNLV plays today.

NoodlesMacintosh

06 Sep 2004, 11:29 AM

4-4 for the conference overall...not bad. Both Utah and BYU have beaten 6 BCS conference teams since the start of that whole mess, making them something like tied for third overall for most victories by a non-BCS team over BCS teams. Louisville and Fresno State have more, I think.

My guesses for next week (and I'll try to be a little less spiteful towards Wyoming this time):
Air Force over Eastern Washington
Stanford over BYU
USC over Colorado State
New Mexico over Texas Tech
San Diego State: Idle
Wisconsin over UNLV
Utah over Arizona
Wyoming over Texas A&M--why not?

4-3 for the weekend, although it's very possible I'm completely wrong about Wyoming and BYU. I like New Mexico's odds. Who made UNLV's schedule??

Mr Hanki's Throne

07 Sep 2004, 01:05 PM

Finally UNLV loses to Tennessee 42-17. In losing, the Rebels were outrushed 164-272 yards (4.4-6.0 per play); out passed 175-241 yards (6.3-8.3 per play). A comprehensive loss.

I will follow these stats this year. In losing and winning efforts, maybe it is interesting to see that a particular team shuts down the run on defense or finds its passing arm on offense.

FearM9

07 Sep 2004, 02:20 PM

The Boise State v BYU game is on the 24th (and I do believe it's on TV..ESPN or ESPN2). I would like to go to that game, but I also want to head up into the mountains that weekend too.

NoodlesMacintosh

08 Sep 2004, 04:22 PM

That might be enjoyable if it weren't for the Saturday afternoon traffic crush on I-15. In no way does a football game justify wading through that much traffic.

Mr Hanki's Throne

09 Sep 2004, 01:26 PM

This week's matches (with Massey ratings in parenthesis). All games Saturday:

UNLV (81, down 9) at Wisconsin (31), 10AM MDT
Air Force (74, down 13) host Eastern Washington (149), Noon:07 MDT
Wyoming (89, up 8) at Texas A&M (63, down 5), 1:30 PM MDT
Colorado State (47, down 2) at Southern California (1), 6PM MDT
New Mexico (58, up 1) hosts Texas Tech (30), 6PM MDT
Utah (32, up 10) at Arizona (67), 8PM MDT
Brigham Young (54, up 15) at Stanford (56), 8PM MDT

I'll favor the obvious, Air Force and Utah to win, UNLV and CSU to lose. The Aggies seem to enjoy losing, so I'l favor the Cowboys. I don't see BYU winning the even matchup against Stanford. TTU over New Mexico in OT.

http://www.mratings.com/rate/cf-m.htm

Mr Hanki's Throne

12 Sep 2004, 01:22 PM

UNLV lost to Wisconsin 18-3. In losing, the Rebels were outrushed 72-145 yards (2.7-3.3 per play); outpassed 102-131 yards (3.3-5.2 per play).

Air Force beat Eastern Washington 42-20. In winning the Falcons outrushed EWU 353-120 yards (6.8-3.0 per play); were outpassed 145-293 yards but were more effective (8.1-7.1 yards per play).

Wyoming lost to Texas A&M 0-31. The Cowboys were outrushed [-3]-158 yards ([-0.1]-3.8 per play); and outpassed 184-324 yards (5.1-11.2 per play).

Colorado State were crushed by USC 0-49. The Rams were outrushed 48-322 yards (1.8-7.2 per play); but outpassed USC 233-231 yards (tho 6.0-7.5 yards per play).

New Mexico beat Texas Tech 27-24. In winning, the Lobos outrushed the Red Raiders 40-22 yards (3.6-1.9 per play); but were outpassed 168-452 yards (though quite efficient 6.7-6.6 per play).

Utah beat Arizona 23-6. In winning, the Utes outrushed Arizona 156-114 yards (4.1-3.5 per play); were outpassed 170-198 yards (7.1-7.3 per play).

BYU lost to Stanford 10-37. In losing, the Cougars were outrushed 41-72 yards (1.5-2.1 per play); and outpassed 288-297 yards (5.0-6.6 per play).

Mr Hanki's Throne

15 Sep 2004, 11:50 AM

Games for the coming weekend (all Saturday) with Massey ratings:

San Diego State (1-0) [71; down 2] at Michigan (1-1) [15]; 10 AM MDT
New Mexico (1-1) [50; up 8] at Oregon State (0-2) [36]; 2 PM MDT
Utah (2-0) [25; up 7] at Utah State (1-1) [106]; 5 PM MDT
Colorado State (0-2) [51; down 4] hosts Minnesota (2-0) [34]; 8 PM MDT
Brigham Young (1-1) [63; down 9] hosts USC (2-0) [1]; 8 PM MDT

The first conference game:::
Air Force (1-1) [69; up 5] at UNLV (0-2) [83; down 2]; 8 PM MDT

Wyoming (1-1) [92; down 3] has the week off.

By the computer rankings, conference team strength lines up:
Utah :: UNM :: CSU :: BYU :: AFA :: SDSU :: UNLV :: Wyoming