WC'06 seeding thread--updated to 8/4/04

[eldiablito]

The most recent FIFA rankings are out and so the world cup seeding formula can be updated. And just as expected, Argentina reclaimed their seed bumping the US back to bubble status.

Here are the current numbers:

63.67 Brazil
51.17 Spain
49.17 Germany
47.17 Italy
47.00 England
46.00 Argentina
45.83 Mexico
45.67 France
_________________
41.67 Holland
40.67 USA
39.17 Denmark (presuming Greece doesn't qualify)
38.17 Turkey (again presuming Greece finishes 3rd in qualifying group)

How other teams of interest compare:

Euro darling Czech Republic 27.67

Euro Champion Greece 15.67 (presuming either Denmark or Turkey does not qualify)

Euro runner-up Portugal 23.67

Here is the link to the previous thread. For any newcomers, the background information may become useful.
http://www.bigsoccer.com/forum/showthread.php?t=87489

Note to moderators:
I've started a new thread because I'm under the impression the old one was too long. If for whatever reason it is easier to merge this thread with the old, by all means feel free to do so.

[Raider Red]

I know someone on the Concacaf board ran simulations designed to predict each country's chances for qualifying for WC 2006...is there someone who sould do this for the teams listed above? Looks like France, the Dutch and Turkey have the most challenging groups, but I'd like to see the numbers on that.

[Solid444]

How much should we expect those standings to fluctuate? What does Mexico have to do (or teams below them) so that Mexico doesnt get a seed?

[eldiablito]

I know someone on the Concacaf board ran simulations designed to predict each country's chances for qualifying for WC 2006...is there someone who sould do this for the teams listed above? Looks like France, the Dutch and Turkey have the most challenging groups, but I'd like to see the numbers on that.

That's certainly an interesting idea. Sorry I can't accomodate it.

Although, I'd have to say that I'd be very surprised if any of the "seeded" teams do not qualify from their groups--particularly France.

The toughest groups are Group 1 (Czech, Holland, Romania) and Group 2 (Turkey, Greece, Denmark). But regardless of how these teams do--it's unlikely for any of them to get a seed. Also, I'd expect the US to not lose any ground to this lot.

[eldiablito]

How much should we expect those standings to fluctuate?
Well you've probably noticed in that longer, older thread how the standings fluctated month to month. What's important to note is that the fluctuation among the top 8 doesn't matter. The 2nd team gets no advantage over the 8th team--all of them just get appointed group seeds (leaders). The advantage is that they won't have to play each other in the group stage. Therefore the internal fluctuation of the 8 seeds really doesn't matter.

However, more to the point of your question:
These 8 seeds have been primarily consistent since April 2003 when I started tracking. There were only two times where the seeds changed from the countries you see in the first post. Once was in June 2003 when Holland took Italy's place. Italy reclaimed their seed the following month. The other time was last month when USA took Argentina's spot.

As you can see, the status quo has resumed. I fully expect it to stay that way, but one can only hope that another anomaly occurs in November 2005 when the seeds are actually determined.

What does Mexico have to do (or teams below them) so that Mexico doesnt get a seed?
Basically, Mexico has to completely implode. Mexico has pretty firmly had a lock on a seed since April 2003 (if not before). Even if the teams below them perform exceptionally well, it will be very difficult to unseat them.

The magic number for seeded teams is 45.01. This is because if Holland became the #1 ranked team and stayed that way until November 2005, their seeding formula result would be 45.00. As you can see, for this reason alone, it is highly unlikely that any of the seeds lose their place--as long as they maintain their current FIFA/coke ranking.

Therefore, Mexico has to completely fall apart. Mexico will be vulnerable if their ranking falls to 12-14 range, depending on how well USA, Holland, and Turkey improve their respective rankings. As you know with Concacaf's qualifying, this is an unlikely scenario.

[Solid444]

Well you've probably noticed in that longer, older thread how the standings fluctated month to month. What's important to note is that the fluctuation among the top 8 doesn't matter. The 2nd team gets no advantage over the 8th team--all of them just get appointed group seeds (leaders). The advantage is that they won't have to play each other in the group stage. Therefore the internal fluctuation of the 8 seeds really doesn't matter.

However, more to the point of your question:
These 8 seeds have been primarily consistent since April 2003 when I started tracking. There were only two times where the seeds changed from the countries you see in the first post. Once was in June 2003 when Holland took Italy's place. Italy reclaimed their seed the following month. The other time was last month when USA took Argentina's spot.

As you can see, the status quo has resumed. I fully expect it to stay that way, but one can only hope that another anomaly occurs in November 2005 when the seeds are actually determined.


Basically, Mexico has to completely implode. Mexico has pretty firmly had a lock on a seed since April 2003 (if not before). Even if the teams below them perform exceptionally well, it will be very difficult to unseat them.

The magic number for seeded teams is 45.01. This is because if Holland became the #1 ranked team and stayed that way until November 2005, their seeding formula result would be 45.00. As you can see, for this reason alone, it is highly unlikely that any of the seeds lose their place--as long as they maintain their current FIFA/coke ranking.

Therefore, Mexico has to completely fall apart. Mexico will be vulnerable if their ranking falls to 12-14 range, depending on how well USA, Holland, and Turkey improve their respective rankings. As you know with Concacaf's qualifying, this is an unlikely scenario.

k, thnx

[SJJ]

I still see the USA's ranking improving a little this year. They still have the WCQ qualifiers to play. All other countries played in continental tournaments (although some with mixed results), so they have most of their "big wins" that give the most Fifa points. The USA doesn't have those, yet, so their qualifiers through the end of this year is the chance to improve a little.

[eldiablito]

I still see the USA's ranking improving a little this year. They still have the WCQ qualifiers to play. All other countries played in continental tournaments (although some with mixed results), so they have most of their "big wins" that give the most Fifa points. The USA doesn't have those, yet, so their qualifiers through the end of this year is the chance to improve a little.

But do you see any of the teams ahead of the USA going in the opposite direction? That's what USA needs--their ranking to improve while a seeded team's ranking gets much worse. Unfortunately, I don't see that happening.

USA needs to be 5 or better to have a legitimate claim, 7 or better to have a chance. But then one of these things have to happen:

France needs to fall out of the top 5.
Mexico out of the top 12.
England out of the top 10.
Argentina out of the top 8.
Italy out of the top 13.
Germany is a moot issue because they're the host.
Spain needs to plummet to almost #20 and Brazil even farther.