can anyone estimate what SLC might avg for attendence in 2005?

[yellowbismark]

I don't know if this has been discussed before in the other threads, but since attendence figures are a big deal to some BS posters (and I curiously follow the attendences myself), I was wondering if we can have some insightful analysis about what kind of attendence climate to expect in Salt Lake.

With regards to some possible analysis topics related to attendence, what sort of demographics will be targeted or may form a big part of their fanbase, what is the pro-sports culture like there--will it translate positively for the MLS team, how big or popular is soccer there, will the local media get behind it, the various stadium issues, how big will the season ticket base be, etc...

locals and other people who may have insight, please feel free to make a discussion about this.

As for what I personally think will happen (and I'm basing this off of no great knowledge about SLC), I think the team will draw about 15,000 for average--which I think is good for a somewhat non-traditional market. The team get decent coverage and become accepted into the local sports landscape.

[jasoncox]

I don't think anyone knows. There is a largley untapped market that they are betting they can lure in. The fact that they have no real competition during the summer months helps. The fact that the Jazz are one of the attendance leaders in the NBA is a positive sign. The Blitzz drew pretty well for their league without much advertising or coverage by local media.

So, while there are positive signs, there are also many variables. A lot will depend on the management group and how they market/sell the team to the area.

[prk166]

I'll bet it'll be something under 100,000 / match. :-P

[kenntomasch]

I don't think there's any way to predict what a new market will draw.

We've pretty much established that an organization with serious issues will get about 8k a night on average, and a good organization in a big market can do 20k. Other than that, it's pretty much conjecture.

I don't think there's a magic equation where you plug in population base, how much competition from other sports franchises there is, average summer climate, and anything else you can think of, and it spits out what a market should average.

That doesn't stop most people from standing up at their introductory press conference and saying "There's no reason we can't average (insert ridiculous figure here)."

Obviously, Salt Lake has a smaller population base, so you're starting with a pool of potential customers that is smaller than in a lot of other areas. Whether there's a higher percentage of people who would be willing to attend MLS matches than in other, larger markets, I can't tell you.

Anyone who tells you they know what Salt Lake will average next year is kidding you.

[Blitzz Boy]

We'll let you know if you can tell us who our general manager will be. And who our coach will be.

And what the weather will be like next year.

And if the Jazz will make the playoffs next year.

And if BYU & U of U football programs get off to strong starts in 2005.

[Czar Pazzo]

When Dave Checketts (I pause to cross myself and thank him every time I mention his name) spoke to a local talk show, Bolerjack and Monson, somebody asked him this same question. He said he did not want to say a specific number that they expect or need for attendance, for these reasons:

A. There's no way anybody can tell at this point.

2. If he says a specific number, the first game that draws less than that number will have all the press saying that the team is going to have to leave town. Pretty smart guy.

But he said regardless, he will "make it work," which is a good attitude to take. I'm optimistic.

[Revolt]

Has SLC starting selling season tix packages, yet?

[lond2345]

I would say the attendance would be 99%...mormons.

[Czar Pazzo]

Has SLC starting selling season tix packages, yet?

No, not yet. They are still hiring their GM and the rest of the big-wigs, so I imagine that they will start selling tickets when they announce the team name. Look for that in 1-3 weeks. Hopefully the replica jerseys will go on sale as well, I'm gonna need one or nine.

[Jabinho]

I would say the attendance would be 99%...mormons.I would say you're wrong.. For one thing, Mormons are a minority in SLC and only a majority in a lot of the more "rural" areas of Utah.
They may attend in numbers a little more than their percentage of the population, the reason being the often noted exposure for many of them to soccer culture overseas on their missions. There's not as much of that "soccer is un-American" nonsense there as some places from my experience as a soccer fan living there..

It's really hard to guess but I expect good support right off for SLC team and the only real evidence at this point would be the good support of the Blitzz.

[Bluecat82]

I would say you're wrong.. For one thing, Mormons are a minority in SLC and only a majority in a lot of the more "rural" areas of Utah.



Provo is rural??? :)

Orem, I'd believe...

[Jabinho]

Provo is rural??? :)

Orem, I'd believe...
Well I don't know the figures for Provo but I can tell you they are a minority in SLC and if they are a majority in Provo it wouldn't be big.. You must remember that people move there from all over for lots of reasons that have nothing to do with the church.

[Lizzie Bee]

I wish Orem was rural. My little .19 acre lot might convince some otherwise. Manhattan it ain't, though.

Even little rural Orem is changing demographics (religiously)... in my neighborhood, I'd say only about 50-60% of people are LDS.

[prk166]

I would say the attendance would be 99%...mormons.

Wow. Haven't heard any of those jokes before.

FYI - SLC is only 50% LDS.

[Lizzie Bee]

will it translate positively for the MLS team, how big or popular is soccer there, will the local media get behind it, the various stadium issues, how big will the season ticket base be, etc...


I think the local media will get behind it. Tonight there was an editorial piece at the end of the 6:30 newscast about the MLS coming to Utah. It had a positive feel to it and was optimistic. This may not be a big deal, but it tells me that people at the television stations are at least thinking about it and aware of it. My impression was that the only comment they ever made about the Blitzz was, "The who?"

[Jabinho]

Wow. Haven't heard any of those jokes before.

FYI - SLC is only 50% LDS.
48% and dropping.. ;)

[prk166]

48% and dropping.. ;)

Dropping? I thought LDS had adopted the old Catholic policy of 'Every Sperm is Special'? ;)

[Sean Reynolds]

Wow. Haven't heard any of those jokes before.

FYI - SLC is only 50% LDS.

Actually it's 40%.

It drops each decade.

[Jabinho]

Dropping? I thought LDS had adopted the old Catholic policy of 'Every Sperm is Special'?
Utah is being Californicated.. :eek:
Hence the drop faster than the Mormons can "work".. :p

[kenntomasch]

Actually it's 40%.

It drops each decade.

Seems like it drops with every post. :)