Coca-Cola Championship -- Promotion/Relegation Odds

[Atouk]

We're 10 days out from the kick-off of the Coca-Cola Championship. What are our odds for promotion/relegation? Those of the rest of the division?

William Hill makes West Ham, Wolves, and Leicester the three most likely to be promoted and Rotherham, Gillingham, and Crewe the three most likely to be relegated.

They have us even with Derby as joint 10th most likely for relegation at 6.5 to 1; we're listed as 16th most likely for promotion at 15 to 1.

I guess being tied for 10th most likely to be relegated isn't awful, but I sure wish those odds were a bit higher than 6.5 to 1. Still, when Leeds is just 10 to 1 and play-off qualifier Ipswich is just 12 to 1, I guess it's not that bad.

Here are William Hill's odds for promotion and relegation for every team in the Championship:

Team (Promotion Odds, x to 1/Relegation Odds, x to 1)

West Ham (2.25/41.00)

Wolves (2.50/34.00)

Leicester (3.20/29.00)

Sunderland (3.50/26.00)

Wigan (4.50/19.00)

Sheff Utd (5.50/13.00)

Nottm Forest (5.50/13.00)

Ipswich (5.50/12.00)

Reading (6.00/17.00) -- of note, bookies see them as slightly less likely to be both promoted and relegated than Sheff United, Nottingham Forest, and Ipswich

Millwall (6.00/12.00)

Leeds (6.00/10.00)

Cardiff (8.50/9.00)

Coventry (10.00/7.50)

Derby (13.00/6.50)

Stoke (13.00/5.50)

Q P R (15.00/6.50) -- so, they think we have less chance of promotion than Stoke, but also less chance of getting relegated; also, we're considered less likely for relegation (and more likely for promotion) than Division Two champ Plymouth

Plymouth (19.00/5.50)

Watford (21.00/4.50)

Preston (21.00/4.50)

Brighton (26.00/4.00) -- I'm a bit surprised that Brighton, who was relegated two years ago and returned through the play-offs last year has four teams listed as more likely for relegation

Burnley (29.00/3.60)

Gillingham (34.00/3.20)

Crewe (34.00/3.20)

Rotherham (34.00/3.00)

[JacksonJazz#9]

We're 10 days out from the kick-off of the Coca-Cola Championship. What are our odds for promotion/relegation? Those of the rest of the division?

William Hill makes West Ham, Wolves, and Leicester the three most likely to be promoted and Rotherham, Gillingham, and Crewe the three most likely to be relegated.

They have us even with Derby as joint 10th most likely for relegation at 6.5 to 1; we're listed as 16th most likely for promotion at 15 to 1.

I guess being tied for 10th most likely to be relegated isn't awful, but I sure wish those odds were a bit higher than 6.5 to 1. Still, when Leeds is just 10 to 1 and play-off qualifier Ipswich is just 12 to 1, I guess it's not that bad.

Here are William Hill's odds for promotion and relegation for every team in the Championship:

Team (Promotion Odds, x to 1/Relegation Odds, x to 1)

West Ham (2.25/41.00)

Wolves (2.50/34.00)

Leicester (3.20/29.00)

Sunderland (3.50/26.00)

Wigan (4.50/19.00)

Sheff Utd (5.50/13.00)

Nottm Forest (5.50/13.00)

Ipswich (5.50/12.00)

Reading (6.00/17.00) -- of note, bookies see them as slightly less likely to be both promoted and relegated than Sheff United, Nottingham Forest, and Ipswich

Millwall (6.00/12.00)

Leeds (6.00/10.00)

Cardiff (8.50/9.00)

Coventry (10.00/7.50)

Derby (13.00/6.50)

Stoke (13.00/5.50)

Q P R (15.00/6.50) -- so, they think we have less chance of promotion than Stoke, but also less chance of getting relegated; also, we're considered less likely for relegation (and more likely for promotion) than Division Two champ Plymouth

Plymouth (19.00/5.50)

Watford (21.00/4.50)

Preston (21.00/4.50)

Brighton (26.00/4.00) -- I'm a bit surprised that Brighton, who was relegated two years ago and returned through the play-offs last year has four teams listed as more likely for relegation

Burnley (29.00/3.60)

Gillingham (34.00/3.20)

Crewe (34.00/3.20)

Rotherham (34.00/3.00)

Less likely than Plymouth??? come on!!!! at least they dont have us at the bottom 3.... but PUH-LEASE... we mopped the floor with the QPR last year and walked away with the crown.... how can we be figured to finish lower than your lot?!?!??!

utter CR@P!!!!

[QPR Kevin H]

Less likely than Plymouth??? come on!!!! at least they dont have us at the bottom 3.... but PUH-LEASE... we mopped the floor with the QPR last year and walked away with the crown.... how can we be figured to finish lower than your lot?!?!??!

utter CR@P!!!!
Probably based on the fact that we've been in this division before and Argyle have not been this high up in over a decade. Predicting who's going up and down this season is a crap shoot - it's an incredibly competitive division. I think we'll both be safe - and not much better than that.

[Atouk]

Less likely than Plymouth??? come on!!!! at least they dont have us at the bottom 3.... but PUH-LEASE... we mopped the floor with the QPR last year and walked away with the crown.... how can we be figured to finish lower than your lot?!?!??!

utter CR@P!!!!
2002-03 Division Two
2. Crewe - 86 points, +36 goal difference
6. Cardiff - 81 points, +25 goal difference, promoted via an extra-time goal in a play-off final against a team who'd looked better that day

How could Cardiff possibly finish ahead of Crewe the next season?

2003-04 Division One
13. Cardiff - 65 points, +10 goal difference
18. Crewe - 53 points, -9 goal difference

Last time I checked, teams don't finish in the same order every year. I think that's why they play the games.

That being said, I agree with Kevin. It's impossible to predict this division. Many of the reviews I've read have 2/3 of the teams listed as play-off teams, on the fringes of the play-offs, or thereabout. 13th place last season was within 8 points of the play-offs. Over a long season, it's easy to see how you could have gained or lost 8 points. This year, with the entering teams thought to be a bit stronger than the departing teams, this division will likely be even tighter.

The bookies are pros at making money based on what people think will happen, but can the betting public really have a good idea at this point? Not really. While I think the automatic promotion teams will come from a select half-dozen or so teams, I agree with Kevin that it's too early to predict the relegated teams or, for that matter, the play-off teams.

[Atouk]

The BBC now has a small club-by-club guide to this year's Championship (http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/football/eng_div_1/3896733.stm) on their website.

About QPR, they say:

QPR

Nickname: Rangers
Ground: Loftus Road
Capacity: 19,148
Last season: Division Two runners-up (promoted)
Manager: Ian Holloway (February 2001)

In: Lee Cook (Watford, tribunal).
Out: Clarke Carlisle (Leeds), Steve Palmer (MK Dons), Dennis Oli, Richard Pacquette, Ben Walshe, Terrell Forbes.

BBC Sport verdict: Ian Holloway's side deservedly clinched promotion on the last day of the season. They have since lost Clarke Carlisle to Leeds but if they keep the rest of the squad together should have no worries about relegation.
Key man: Kevin Gallen.

[QPR Kevin H]

Always funny and intresting preview from Watford site Blind, Stupid and Desperate...

http://www.bsad.org/0405/reports/uberanalysis.html

[Atouk]

Sky Sports (http://skysports.planetfootball.com/list.asp?hlid=217623&cpid=10&CLID=&lid=4&title=Coca+Cola+Championship+Preview) has their Championship preview up. The folks at Sky pick Rangers to finish 17th this season, securing our place in the division. They pick Leicester as champions, West Ham for auto promotion, and list Ipswich, Sunderland, Wigan, and Sheffield United as their play-off teams. Sky tips Rotherham, Gillingham, and Brighton for relegation.

Always funny and intresting preview from Watford site Blind, Stupid and Desperate...

http://www.bsad.org/0405/reports/uberanalysis.htmlGood stuff!