Group D Qualification Scenario [R]

[Motterman]

http://sports.yahoo.com/sow/news?slug=reu-eurogroups&prov=reuters&type=lgns


The Czechs became the first qualifiers for the quarter-finals with their dramatic 3-2 victory over the Netherlands as the only team in the tournament to win both their games. Germany would join them if they beat the Czechs. If they do not, the winners of the Netherlands v Latvia match would go into the last eight.

If both matches are drawn, the Germans would qualify.

If Germany lose to the Czechs and the other match is drawn, three teams would finish on two points. The Dutch would then be certain to qualify unless their match finishes 0-0 in which case goal difference between the Dutch and Germans would decide.

The Dutch would have an advantage because of their two goals in the 3-2 loss to the Czechs. Germany could not afford to lose by more than one goal and would have to score at least two themselves to edge out the Dutch.

[BSjanitor]

I have to pick one of the games to watch on Wednesday because DISH network does not have repeats :mad:. Holland v Latvia or Czech Rep. v Germany? Which one and why?

[Spartak]

I have to pick one of the games to watch on Wednesday because DISH network does not have repeats. Holland v Latvia or Czech Rep. v Germany? Which one and why?
CZE/GER is the game to watch. Germany has to win the game to advance. And even if the Czechs field a reserve team I still think Germany will find it hard to score on them. The Czechs will relish the chance to eliminate the Germans. Plus, if Germany can't score on Latvia they probably have no hope against the Czech Republic. The Holland/Latvia game is gonna be a whitewash. This is the scenario I envision:

Holland is winning over Latvia 5-0 and the whistle blows for full-time. The Dutch are celebrating because they hear that the Germany/Czech game is almost full-time and it is still 0-0. But wait :p GOOOOOOOOOOL for Germany in the 90th minute. The Dutch sit stunned in the stadium at what has just transpired. :D

[SLC25]

CZE/GER is the game to watch. Germany has to win the game to advance. And even if the Czechs field a reserve team I still think Germany will find it hard to score on them. The Czechs will relish the chance to eliminate the Germans. Plus, if Germany can't score on Latvia they probably have no hope against the Czech Republic. The Holland/Latvia game is gonna be a whitewash. This is the scenario I envision:

Holland is winning over Latvia 5-0 and the whistle blows for full-time. The Dutch are celebrating because they hear that the Germany/Czech game is almost full-time and it is still 0-0. But wait :p GOOOOOOOOOOL for Germany in the 90th minute. The Dutch sit stunned in the stadium at what has just transpired. :D

I Think the Germans have a better chance to score next game, why? because the Czech won't defend with 8 players

[fuxer]

the germans even can loose to play the quaterfinals

when they loose 2:3 and holland plays 0:0 the germans are second in group d with 2 points.
that would be a real funny scenario.
:D

[kevbrunton]

Here is another article discussing the scenarios...

http://soccernet.espn.go.com/euro2004/feature?id=303562&cc=5901

[skipshady]

Here is another article discussing the scenarios...

http://soccernet.espn.go.com/euro2004/feature?id=303562&cc=5901
Should Germany lose and Holland and Latvia be involved in a goalless draw, Holland will go through - unless Germany lose by one goal in a scoreline of 2-3 or equivalently greater.
I realize I could be very, very off, but if the Germany vs Czech Rep ends 2-3 and Netherland vs Latvia draw, my calculation says Netherlands go through.

Germany and Netherlands would be tied on:
- points
- points, goal diff. and goals scored in matches involving Germany, Netherlands and Latvia
- total goal diff
- total goals scored

So we go to the next factor, points earned in WC2002 and Euor 2004 qualifiers. Holland earned 20 pts in WCQ and 19 pts in ECQ (not including 3 pts in playoff vs Scotland) for a total of 39, and Germany earned 18 pts in WCQ (not including 4 pts in playoff vs Ukraine) and 17 pts in WCQ for a total of 35.

(http://fifaworldcup.yahoo.com/02/en/t/q/uefa-g2.html
http://fifaworldcup.yahoo.com/02/en/t/q/uefa-g9.html
http://www.euro2004.com/tournament/qualifying/teams/team=95.html
http://www.euro2004.com/tournament/qualifying/teams/team=47.html)

Anyway you look at it, Holland comes out on top. Am I missing something here?

[dmid]

I realize I could be very, very off, but if the Germany vs Czech Rep ends 2-3 and Netherland vs Latvia draw, my calculation says Netherlands go through.

Germany and Netherlands would be tied on:
- points
- points, goal diff. and goals scored in matches involving Germany, Netherlands and Latvia
- total goal diff
- total goals scored

So we go to the next factor, points earned in WC2002 and Euor 2004 qualifiers. Holland earned 20 pts in WCQ and 19 pts in ECQ (not including 3 pts in playoff vs Scotland) for a total of 39, and Germany earned 18 pts in WCQ (not including 4 pts in playoff vs Ukraine) and 17 pts in WCQ for a total of 35.

(http://fifaworldcup.yahoo.com/02/en/t/q/uefa-g2.html
http://fifaworldcup.yahoo.com/02/en/t/q/uefa-g9.html
http://www.euro2004.com/tournament/qualifying/teams/team=95.html
http://www.euro2004.com/tournament/qualifying/teams/team=47.html)

Anyway you look at it, Holland comes out on top. Am I missing something here?

From another thread

If they lose 3-2, then the next tiebreaker is UEFA coefficients, from which Germany will advance (2.188 vs 2.167). This is where Holland's dismal performance in the 2002 World Cup quals hurt...

[Spartak]

From another thread
I think skipshady is definately wrong because he is using total points not points per game. Holland played 2 more games in 2002 than Germany so that is not right. I'm not sure how Rangers came up with those numbers. He might be right. But by my calculations Holland and Germany would still be even :eek:

Holland:
WC 2002: 10 GP/20 Pts= 2.000
Euro 2004: 8 GP/19 Pts= 2.375
-----------------------------Total Coefficieint= 2.1875

Germany:
WC 2002: 8 GP/17 Pts= 2.125
Euro 2004: 8 GP/18 Pts= 2.25
-----------------------------Total Coefficient= 2.1875

This doesn't include playoffs and gives equal value to 2002 and 2004 so maybe this is where Rangers numbers are different. I actually don't know what is the exact formula so my numbers could be way off.

[skipshady]

I think skipshady is definately wrong because he is using total points not points per game. Holland played 2 more games in 2002 than Germany so that is not right.Thanks, I missed that. I was wondering how the Dutch had more points despite missing WC2002 and qualifying through playoffs in 2004.

I do think rangers00 is wrong about UEFA coefficients. From the official Euro 2004 site (http://www.euro2004.com/tournament/standings/index.html):
Tie breakers
If teams finish level on points, then the winner of the match between the sides in question will finish highest, or should they have drawn, goal difference, followed by goals scored, qualifying record for the 2002 FIFA World Cup and UEFA EURO 2004™, a fair play ranking and finally either a penalty shoot-out or drawing of lots.

Assuming they don't count points earned in playoffs (where Germany would have an advantage because they earned 4 points vs Ukraine in 2001 as opposed to Holland's 3 points vs Scotland in 2003), the next factor is the fair play ranking (!).

Well, if we do go to fair play ranking, Germany would have a huge advantage according to the official UEFA site (http://www.uefa.com/uefa/news/Kind=16384/newsId=186477.html) - Germans are #5 and Dutch all the way down at #24.

So if I didn't make a mistake here, I guess Germany do go through if they lose 3-2 vs the Czechs and Holland vs Latvia end up in a scoreless draw.

Fair Play criteria
UEFA's Fair Play ranking only takes into account national associations that have played what UEFA says is a reasonable number of games. For the purposes of the list below, a cut-off point of 29 matches has been applied. The Fair Play coefficient is based on criteria such as positive play, respect for opponents and the referee, the behaviour of team officials and supporters as well as cautions and dismissals.

[gold.field]

Actually the coefficient is already a tiebreaker.
It is:
Holland 39 P : 18 G = 2,166
Germany 37 P : 16 G = 2,188

It is the same coefficient used in the seeding, where Germany was in pot B and Holland in pot C.

http://www.euro2004.com/News/Kind=1/newsId=127713.html

Let's all hope this doesn't decide this group. I'd rather have Germany beat the Czech Rep. and the dutch people hang Advokaat ;) . It would be a shame if they needlessly bought him his plane ticket...

[skipshady]

Actually the coefficient is already a tiebreaker.
It is:
Holland 39 P : 18 G = 2,166
Germany 37 P : 16 G = 2,188

It is the same coefficient used in the seeding, where Germany was in pot B and Holland in pot C.There is no mention of coefficients in the listing of tie breakers at the official site (www.euro2004.com/tournament/standings/index.html) and your link doesn't say that the coefficients will be used to break ties.
So unless I read otherwise, it's:
1) the winner of the match between the sides in question, or should they have drawn, goal difference, followed by goals scored
2) goal difference, followed by goals scored in the tournament
3) qualifying record for the 2002 FIFA World Cup and UEFA EURO 2004™
4) fair play ranking
5) finally either a penalty shoot-out or drawing of lots.

The Dutch and the Germans can be even on (1) and (2), they're even on (3) but Germany have the edge on (4).

Of course, it's a moot point since we end up at the same conclusion.
Let's all hope this doesn't decide this group. I'd rather have Germany beat the Czech Rep. and the dutch people hang Advokaat ;) . It would be a shame if they needlessly bought him his plane ticket...Eh, I wish both Germany and Holland go home, so I'm hoping for a Latvia win over Holland and a Czech win over Germany. Ha!

I think a more likely result is a Germany draw or loss vs Czech Rep and a Dutch win over Latvia. Holland go through 2nd in the group.

[gold.field]

Made a google search and found this (official) pdf-file:
http://www.uefa.com/newsfiles/175531.pdf

It states that the coefficient is decisive. Man, am I nitpicking or what... ;)

To be honest, from a neutral standpoint, Holland should advance. That Czech Rep. - Holland game was the best of the tournament so far, and I doubt Germany will participate in a better one. But if Völler stopped playing the likes of Bobic, Wörns and Baumann and fielded Podolski, Hinkel, Kehl and the other youngs instead, we probably would play better (but not in terms of winning, and that is all that counts in Germany).

[skipshady]

Made a google search and found this (official) pdf-file:
http://www.uefa.com/newsfiles/175531.pdf

It states that the coefficient is decisive. Man, am I nitpicking or what... ;)Thanks for digging that up. It looks like we were arguing the same thing and I was just confused on what the coefficient was.

[White-green Pride]

This is the scenario I envision:
Holland is winning over Latvia 5-0 and the whistle blows for full-time. The Dutch are celebrating because they hear that the Germany/Czech game is almost full-time and it is still 0-0. But wait :p GOOOOOOOOOOL for Germany in the 90th minute. The Dutch sit stunned in the stadium at what has just transpired.

And that is just the scenario that has been haunting me for 3 days now....:(

[Fevernova99]

If you want the scenarios just go to uefa2004.com and download the excel sheet they have, you can enter scores and see the standings change accordingly. Beats writing it down and paper and calculating everything manually

[hobeco]

the germans even can loose to play the quaterfinals

when they loose 2:3 and holland plays 0:0 the germans are second in group d with 2 points.
that would be a real funny scenario.
:D

What the hell is funny about that?

[Forza AZ]

I've calculated all possibilities:

Germany go through if:

- they win
- they draw and Netherlands-Latvia is a draw
- they lose 2-3, 3-4, 4-5 etc. and Netherlands-Latvia is 0-0

Netherlands go through if:

- they win and Germany doesn't win
- they draw 1-1, 2-2, 3-3 etc. and Germany lose
- they draw 0-0 and Germany lose 0-1, 1-2 or with more goals difference

Latvia go through if:

- they win and Germany doesn't win

[triplesevn]

It seems everyone is forgetting what GREECE has done, and what Latvia has done so far!
I wouldn't put anything beyond Latvia's reach. Both Holland and Germany lose, guess who will be joining the Greeks at the party! It's more then possible!

Although, I would prefer to see Holland make it to the Finals if not England against.....France! ;+)

Holland is and never has been a team to rely on. They are too up and down. Germany over the past several years has not been the same of old Germany. They could sneak up once again like in WC2002.

[Premium Hamatachi redded]

good luck to latvia :) let's join the world's powerhouse now!!