Group C Quarterfinal Scenarios : Who will make it?

[prk166]

Here's a crude layout of the scenarios for advancing to the quarterfinals for Group C. Italy still has a chance but Sweeden and Denmark are in the drivers seat.

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Bulgaria can not advance to the quarter finals.

Italy can advacnce if they beat Bulgaria and they win a tie breaker if Denmark and Sweeden tie.
Italy can advance if they beat Bulgaria and Denmark beats Sweeden or Sweeden beats Bulgaria.

Sweeden can advance if they beat Denmark.
Sweeden can advance if they tie Denmark and Italy loses or ties Bulgaria.
Sweeden can advance if they tie Denmark and they win a tie breaker if Italy beats Bulgaria.
Sweeden can advance if they lose to Denmark and Italy loses or ties Bulgaira.

Denmark can advance if they beat Sweeden.
Denmark can advance if they tie Sweeden and Italy loses or ties Bulgaria.
Denmark can advance if they tie Sweeden and they win a tie breaker if Italy beats Bulgaria.
Denmark can advance if they lose to Sweeden and Italy loses or ties Bulgaria.

[cmos]

Italy can advance if they beat Bulgaria and Denmark beats Sweeden or Sweeden beats Bulgaria.



Sweden have already beaten Bulgarie.

[Ceres]

Sweden have already beaten Bulgarie.

Your quite right, and Denmark is not like the Bulgarian team ;)...

[Premium Hamatachi redded]

denmark and sweden definetely deserve to go to quarterfinal

bulgaria was very disappointing but who can blame them when they had to face two of the top 5 euro side denmark and sweden. however, i expect them to show what they are made of against italy

[skipshady]

Soccernet has the scenarios for all groups: http://soccernet.espn.go.com/euro2004/feature?id=303562&cc=5901

Italy: Must beat Bulgaria to stand any chance of making the knockout stages.

An win, coupled with a victory for either Denmark or Sweden, will send them through.

If Sweden and Denmark draw 0-0, then Italy will go through ahead of the Danes as they scored a goal against Sweden.

If Sweden and Denmark draw 1-1, then Italy will have to win by at least two goals to put themselves in contention. Should they win by two goals, any other scoreline than 2-0, they will go through.

If Sweden and Denmark draw 1-1, and Italy win 2-0, it will go to the next factor. That is points gained in the qualifing competitions for the 2002 World Cup and Euro 2004. Both gained 37 points. But Italy have a goal difference of +25 to Denmark's +22, so Italy would go through.

If Sweden and Denmark draw 2-2, Italy are out regardless of their performance against Bulgaria.

So basically, Italy will try to score as many goals as possible and keep tabs on the score of Sweden vs Denmark. If one team is ahead comfortably, then Italy might just defend. If it's close, then they're try to get at least 3 goals.

[prk166]

Your quite right, and Denmark is not like the Bulgarian team ;)...

Doh! I meant Bulgaria.

[kevbrunton]

Sweden - Advances with a win or draw. Can advance with a loss and an Italy draw or loss.

Denmark - Advances with a win. Can also advance with a draw or loss if Italy draw or lose. Can also advance with a draw and an Italy win by 1 goal - or a draw and an Italy 2 goal win if they have more goals scored than Italy.

Italy - If Sweden v. Denmark draw, Italy must win by 3 goals or win by 2 goals and have more goals scored than Denmark in order to advance. If Sweden v. Denmark do not draw, then any win by Italy gets them through. Cannot advance with a draw or loss.

Bulgaria - Out.

[Revolt]

Soccernet has the scenarios for all groups: http://soccernet.espn.go.com/euro2004/feature?id=303562&cc=5901



So basically, Italy will try to score as many goals as possible
Ha!

[skipshady]

Italy - If Sweden v. Denmark draw, Italy must win by 3 goals or win by 2 goals and have more goals scored than Denmark in order to advance.That's only if the score is 1-1.

Let's assume Italy beat Bulgaria and Denmark and Sweden - all three teams are tied on points at 5.

The first tiebreaker is the record in games involving the teams that are tied on points - Denmark vs Italy (1-1), Sweden vs Italy (1-1) and Denmark vs Sweden (x-x). If Denmark and Sweden draw, each team will have earned 2 points from the matches against the other 2.

Since the goal differential in all 3 matches is 0, we go to the next factor, goals scored in games involving the teams in question.

If Denmark vs Sweden ends 0-0, then the total goals in the 3 games for Italy, Denmark, and Sweden are 2, 1, and 1, respectively. Italy advance as the group winners, followed by Sweden, based on their advantage in goal differential over the whole tournament (+7 for Sweden, +2 for Denmark).

If Denmark vs Sweden ends 1-1, then all 3 teams are tied on points (2), goal differential (0) and goals scored in the 3 matches (3).
And like you say, Italy have to beat Bulgaria by at least 2 goals to get get an edge on Sweden. A 3-goal margin puts Italy on top of Denmark in goal differential, and a 3-1 or better would give them a better goals scored record.
But even a 2-0 win is enough because of Italy's superior record in WC2002 and Euro2004 qualifiers.

If Denmark vs Sweden ends 2-2 or higher then, both Denmark and Sweden will have scored more goals than Italy in matches involving the 3 teams (at least 3 for Denmark and Sweden, only 2 for Italy), and Italy are eliminated whether they beat Bulgaria 1-0 or 9,999,999-0.

[DartNut]

Let's hope for a 2-2 draw with SWE-DEN and we won't have to worry about the darn Italians. They are already crying about a match fix between Sweden and Denmark......boo hoo hoo Italy.

[DartNut]

Let's hope for a 2-2 draw with SWE-DEN and we won't have to worry about the darn Italians. They are already crying about a match fix between Sweden and Denmark......boo hoo hoo Italy.
Better yet.......GO BULGARIA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! (I know that's a bit of a stretch.)