Italy is out if Sweden and Denmark agree to tie...

[FireTrapatoni]

at 2-2, 3-3, or higher. Italy could then beat Bulgaria 300-0 and it would not make a difference according to the head-to-head tiebreak rules.

[Valjean]

No chance either team would do that though.

[cleazer]

Hey, I have a great idea. Lets go out and tie the match today 5-5.


This is one of the stupider posts I've read on bigsoccer.

[FireTrapatoni]

Perhaps, but if Sweden takes a 2-0 lead, and Denmark comes back to tie it, Sweden will be quite content to play defensive and play to a 2-2 tie. They probably will be very defensive from the start being the leaders in the group, which I suppose could help Italy if it's a lower scoring tie.

[FireTrapatoni]

Hey, I have a great idea. Lets go out and tie the match today 5-5.


This is one of the stupider posts I've read on bigsoccer.

It may be stupid to think that they will fix it to screw Italy, but because they are the leaders in the group, they aren't going to go all out for a win, and if it's a high scoring tie (even 2-2 like France and Croatia), Italy's destiny is out of their hands.

[Valjean]

Perhaps, but if Sweden takes a 2-0 lead, and Denmark comes back to tie it, Sweden will be quite content to play defensive and play to a 2-2 tie. They probably will be very defensive from the start being the leaders in the group, which I suppose could help Italy if it's a lower scoring tie.

Well its rather theoretical. But you may be right. Unlikely though Imo.

[Udpint]

If the score 2-2 happens naturally during the game then we might very well see both teams becoming quite defensive and content.
But there's no way they would aim for or arrange such a result from the start.

[Wowbagger]

Like others have said, there's no way this result could be arranged, those days are over, at least in this part of the world. And the scandinavians never fixed results in any case.
However, it is an amusing thought that the Italian team, after 2 games, no longer controls it's own destiny, but have to rely on another game ending in a specific way, in order to advance.

[picaraza]

No, the Swedes and Danes will not fix the match...

But you can already hear the Italians looking for some conspiracy.

That way they can blame the refs, or Uefa, or Fifa, or any one else but themselves when they go home.

[Valjean]

Id say Italy are almost certain to go through if they dont screw up against Bulgaria.

45% chance Denmark advances, 45% chance Sweden advances....10% chance both teams advance.

[Wowbagger]

So you think there's a 10% chance of 2-2, 3-3 or a similar result? Hmm, I would think 0-0 or 1-1 is more likely. And I think the swedes has a greater chance of winning than Denmark.
Edit: Because Denmarks finishing so far has been crap, while Swedens has been a lot better. Denmark seemed like they had a better defense in the first game, but not today.

[FireTrapatoni]

I think there is a much better chance of both Denmark and Sweden going through than Italy advancing. If Denmark and Sweden tie (probably at least a 33 percent chance of that), it makes it very difficult for Italy.

[speedcake]

Goal differential isn't the first tie breaker in this case? If so then italy just need to win by 3 against Bulgaria in the case of a Sweden-Denmark tie.

regardless, I'll be pulling hard for Bulgaria. A draw or a win for them and bye bye Italy no matter what happens in the other game.

[Samarkand]

Is there any way Sweden And Denmark draw 2-2 or higher, and not have the Italians screaming fix?

[FireTrapatoni]

The differentials used first would not involve the goal differential in the Bulgaria match, so Italy could win by 300 goals and it wouldn't matter if Denmark ties at 2-2 or higher.

[Ombak]

I think speedcake is right. Head-to-head is irrelevant when it's a three-way tie.

So, if Italy have a better goal-differential than Denmark they go through. Regardless of the score a Sweden x Denmark tie.

[Wowbagger]

Goal differential isn't the first tie breaker in this case? If so then italy just need to win by 3 against Bulgaria in the case of a Sweden-Denmark tie.

regardless, I'll be pulling hard for Bulgaria. A draw or a win for them and bye bye Italy no matter what happens in the other game.
This has been discussed to death in the other threads, and yes, goal difference is a tie breaker. However, the goals scored between the 3 teams on equal points come first, before the results against the 4th team. So if the game ends 2-2, Sweden would have a total score of 3-3, Denmark 2-2, and Italy 1-1 - Sweden in 1st, Denmark 2nd.
Edit: Check it out: http://www.livescore.com/euro.dll?page=rules
Rule (c) (Greater number of goals scored in the matches between the teams in question (if more than two teams finish equal)) comes before rule (d) (Goal difference in all the group matches.).

[Ceres]

Id say Italy are almost certain to go through if they dont screw up against Bulgaria.

45% chance Denmark advances, 45% chance Sweden advances....10% chance both teams advance.

Perhaps you forget that if the match between Denmark and Sweden e.g. ends with a 1-1 draw then Italy needs to beat Bulgaria with 3 goals or 3-1, 4-2 and so on, and Italy have actually never ever scored more than 2 goals at the Euro finals ;) ...

[Valjean]

So you think there's a 10% chance of 2-2, 3-3 or a similar result? Hmm, I would think 0-0 or 1-1 is more likely. And I think the swedes has a greater chance of winning than Denmark.
Edit: Because Denmarks finishing so far has been crap, while Swedens has been a lot better. Denmark seemed like they had a better defense in the first game, but not today.

10% chance of 2-2, 3-3 or higher draw or Italy screwing up against Bulgaria.
Which game is on first anyways? Den-Swe?

[Valjean]

Perhaps you forget that if the match between Denmark and Sweden e.g. ends with a 1-1 draw then Italy needs to beat Bulgaria with 3 goals or 3-1, 4-2 and so on, and Italy have actually never ever scored more than 2 goals at the Euro finals ;) ...

Ah...well Im a pessimist :p