Cannon
14 Aug 2009, 09:39 PM
So Arsenal.com has a new article (http://www.arsenal.com/match-menu/3149186/first-team/everton-v-arsenal?tab=preview) with some interesting quotes from Wenger:
The opponents - Manchester United, Liverpool and Chelsea - you do not know how strong they will be. But, in the Premier League, the target is to always be over 82 points if you want to win the title. In a League of this quality you need to win at least 25 games.
I look at last year’s season as a product of bad circumstances. We had a bad start and that is why maybe we feel a little bit under pressure to start well this time because we know that last year after 14 games we had lost five and that was too many
Hmm...I have a problem with these quotes. First 82 points (or 83 points since he says "over 82") is hardly a guarantee of winning the Prem. Lets look at past seasons. In 08/09, ManU won with 90 while Chelsea was third with 83. In 07/08, ManU won it with 87 and Arsenal finished third with 83 points. In 06/07, ManU got the title with 89 and Chelsea in second had 83 points. In 05/06, Chelsea won the Prem with 91, ManU had 83 for second, and Liverpool got third with 82 points. The season before that Chelsea got the title with 95 and Arsenal were second with 83 points. In the invincibles season, Arsenal took 90 and Chelsea in second only had 79 points. Finally in 02/03 we see the last time 83 points won the Prem. It took 87 in 01/02, 80 in 00/01, 91 in 99/00, and before that the winners each season had high 70s or low 80s until you get to Blackburn's win with 89 points in 94/95.
My point is that the aim to get to 82 or 83 points is unlikely to produce a title unless the Prem title race is going to be much more like it was back in the 90s and the early part of this decade. It was true then that around 25 wins put you in the title hunt but the number of late has been around 28 wins. No club has won the title with more than 5 losses since the 00/01 season. That makes the second part of the quote interesting.
Wenger correctly pointed out that the five losses by the end of November that the club had last season made it all but impossible for them to win the Prem. I think it is quite possible that we'll see 3 losses (and another draw/loss) by the end of September so talking about how we'll avoid a bad start this season seems more than a bit hopeful. After 14 games last season Arsenal had 23 points and had managed 12 by the end of September. This season they'd have 25 points (assuming we win in the two matches with new clubs to the Prem) after 14 games and just 8 by the end of September if we match last season's performance in the corresponding fixtures. I predict that Arsenal will actually have just 7 by the end of September and 24 points after fourteen matches. In other words, we're likely to have no better a start this season than last and in fact the first two months look more difficult.
My problem with Wenger's quote is that if he is telling the truth than he is aiming too low to have a realistic chance to win the Prem and is counting on an unlikely better start to the season. What happens when the start is worse than he expects and the club gets its fourth loss by the end of November?
The opponents - Manchester United, Liverpool and Chelsea - you do not know how strong they will be. But, in the Premier League, the target is to always be over 82 points if you want to win the title. In a League of this quality you need to win at least 25 games.
I look at last year’s season as a product of bad circumstances. We had a bad start and that is why maybe we feel a little bit under pressure to start well this time because we know that last year after 14 games we had lost five and that was too many
Hmm...I have a problem with these quotes. First 82 points (or 83 points since he says "over 82") is hardly a guarantee of winning the Prem. Lets look at past seasons. In 08/09, ManU won with 90 while Chelsea was third with 83. In 07/08, ManU won it with 87 and Arsenal finished third with 83 points. In 06/07, ManU got the title with 89 and Chelsea in second had 83 points. In 05/06, Chelsea won the Prem with 91, ManU had 83 for second, and Liverpool got third with 82 points. The season before that Chelsea got the title with 95 and Arsenal were second with 83 points. In the invincibles season, Arsenal took 90 and Chelsea in second only had 79 points. Finally in 02/03 we see the last time 83 points won the Prem. It took 87 in 01/02, 80 in 00/01, 91 in 99/00, and before that the winners each season had high 70s or low 80s until you get to Blackburn's win with 89 points in 94/95.
My point is that the aim to get to 82 or 83 points is unlikely to produce a title unless the Prem title race is going to be much more like it was back in the 90s and the early part of this decade. It was true then that around 25 wins put you in the title hunt but the number of late has been around 28 wins. No club has won the title with more than 5 losses since the 00/01 season. That makes the second part of the quote interesting.
Wenger correctly pointed out that the five losses by the end of November that the club had last season made it all but impossible for them to win the Prem. I think it is quite possible that we'll see 3 losses (and another draw/loss) by the end of September so talking about how we'll avoid a bad start this season seems more than a bit hopeful. After 14 games last season Arsenal had 23 points and had managed 12 by the end of September. This season they'd have 25 points (assuming we win in the two matches with new clubs to the Prem) after 14 games and just 8 by the end of September if we match last season's performance in the corresponding fixtures. I predict that Arsenal will actually have just 7 by the end of September and 24 points after fourteen matches. In other words, we're likely to have no better a start this season than last and in fact the first two months look more difficult.
My problem with Wenger's quote is that if he is telling the truth than he is aiming too low to have a realistic chance to win the Prem and is counting on an unlikely better start to the season. What happens when the start is worse than he expects and the club gets its fourth loss by the end of November?