The BigSoccer Panel: USA vs. Spain Confed Cup Pregame

[Nutmeg]

Reminder that the BigSoccer Panel is an open invitation. A couple panelists have kind of dropped off - some replacements would be appreciated. Coming up we'll do a retrospective on the Confed Cup, a prep for the Gold Cup, and a panel give and take on a few players on the fringe of the US Team. If you want to contribute, please PM me.

Thanks to those that have been rock solid - make sure you spread the panelists rep and love for their contributions.

Primer on Spain - La Furia Roja:


Current ELO Rank: #!
Undefeated in 35 matches (including Euro 2008)
World Cup Qualifying: 18 points from 6 games
Games in past year (including Euro2008):

Goals Against Average: .25
Goals Scored Average: 2.4
W-L-D: 19-0-1




Tactical Alignment:
------ FW ---- FW
MF ------ CM ----- MF
-------- CM
LB -- LCB -- RCB -- RB

Overstating Spain's recent dominance is difficult. They toy with teams, both good and bad. They impose their game, whether the opponent be England or Armenia.

When asked to describe Spain's style of play, most would mention possession. Perhaps underappreciated is the suffocating defense of the Spaniards. Opponents get no time on the ball. Either Spain is keeping it away from them, or they are pressing the opponent furiously in defense.

Spain presses on all parts of the field. They don't maul opponents. They fleece them like a pick-pocket in Moscow. The unaware ball handler is often dispossessed so cleanly they couldn't identify their assailant in a police lineup.

In possession, Spain looks to Xavi. Again, as he did in Euro2008, Xavi is completing close to 90% of his passes. He completes the simple square ball to Xabi Alonso. Then he comples a finely threaded through ball to Villa. There isn't a pass in soccer Xavi won't try, and there are few he won't complete. Xavi and his teammates are a blur of motion, constantly providing each other passing options and pulling defenders away from the player on the ball. Pressing a Spanish player often becomes a game of "pick your poison." At the end of the day, the poison pill often comes from one of the two best strikers in the world - Fernando Torres and David Villa - who each need only a split second on the ball to score a ridiculous highlight goal.

If I've sounded hyperbolic and made the task of beating Spain seem an impossible one, then I've just started to paint how difficult the game will be tomorrow. Is Spain impossible to beat? Since 2006, the answer's been a dominant yes.


1. Key matchups.


FCmagic01:

Torres/Villa vs Onyewu/DeMerit-- This could get ugly. Torres and Villa are the best striking combo in the world and well Onyewu/DeMerit won't be able to handle them. They need help from the CM's.
Donovan vs Ramos-- Donovan can take him with speed. Landon needs to make similar runs with the ball to the Egypt game. This time FINISH!!
Bradley vs Fabregas-- Bradley can help handle him defensively. Hopefully Busquettes doesn't pick up his late runs because they should be open, Fabregas doesn't have "defense" in his vocab.




JeremyEritrea:

Our central defenders versus Torres. Can he be stopped?
Our defensive midfield versus Cesc Fàbregas. Can Bradley / Clark (provided they play) stop Fàbregas?
Landon Donovan versus Xavi.
And Jozy Altidore versus Puyol.




Nutmeg:

Bradley vs. Xavi: All heart vs. all world. I don't know how you negate Xavi, but I know allowing him space and time isn't an option. Bradley must press upfield and at least one forward must pinch back to try an make the world's best playmaker uncomfortable.



2. One thing you'll be watching for.


FCmagic01:

Spain--Their left wing. With Capdevilla at LB they concentrate the ball on that side. Obviously possession too. Xavi and Fabregas in the middle will be tough.
USA--Speed in the attack. Charlie Davies and Landon will cause trouble all game. I don't know how Jozy will figure in, but I have a feeling this might be his game.




JeremyEritrea:

Our lineup. Will Torres or Adu finally get a start? Or will Bradley go back to the same lineup that we used against Egypt, with the exception of Howard back in goal.




Nutmeg:

USA: I hope the kids go out an enjoy themselves. There should be no result expectations. They should just go out, run like hell, and give Spain their best shot.
Spain: For my money, Pique is already one of the best central defenders in soccer. So smooth, so composed. I'll watch him with envy.



3. Result expectations.


FCmagic01:

We are up against a tough one here. Spain will be overlooking us though. We can catch them off guard with a goal in the first half we will be sitting pretty. If we keep 11 on the field 2-1 Win. 10 players = 3-1 Loss.




JeremyEritrea:

Spain 3:0 USA.




Nutmeg:

My head says 2-0 Spain. But I have this nagging feeling we're going to pull off a 1-0 shocker.

[YiddoYiddoYiddo]

go to the sticky

[aveslacker]

Amazing that you mentioned all that quality Spain has in the preview and could skip Iniesta. I'm not sure if he's playing (I thought I'd read somewhere that he isn't), but my point is that it's pretty scary that the players you've outlined are that good and the team that dominant without even mentioning him.

As far as I'm concerned, this game is all about heart and courage for the U.S. team. If Landon gets one-on-one with Casillas, he has to shoot. There should be no weak passes across the goal mouth. Back yourselves and believe!

Dempsey is problematic for us. He does great things with the ball, but has given up possession in the wrong spots for us and he is inconsistent defensively, which could cost us heavily with Capdevila on that side of the field. I'm not sure Feilhaber is as good out wide, but he might be an option.

Otherwise, I'd like to see a healthy Boca at left back, DeMerit in the middle and Davies up top. And if we're down with 60 minutes gone, we must put Adu and/or Torres on.

[Lloyd Heilbrunn]

Spain is so good their coach is unafraid to play a defender named PK.....

I think we give them a game and if Timmy stands on his head,you never know. My big concern is that our guys hit the wall from playing short and not subbing.

[Cujo1126]

Amazing that you mentioned all that quality Spain has in the preview and could skip Iniesta. I'm not sure if he's playing (I thought I'd read somewhere that he isn't), but my point is that it's pretty scary that the players you've outlined are that good and the team that dominant without even mentioning him.



Injured. Probably watching the game on tv in Spain.

[schrutebuck]

Key matchups.


FCmagic01:

Donovan vs Ramos-- Donovan can take him with speed. Landon needs to make similar runs with the ball to the Egypt game. This time FINISH!!




Nutmeg:

Bradley vs. Xavi: All heart vs. all world. I don't know how you negate Xavi, but I know allowing him space and time isn't an option. Bradley must press upfield and at least one forward must pinch back to try an make the world's best playmaker uncomfortable.


I see these two matchups as the decisive matchups.

Ramos and Cesc Fabregas are not too strong defensively, so I would consider defensively that Spain's right side is their 'weak' point. Donovan and Bornstein are going to have to aggressively push with the ball down the left side.

Tomorrow is going to be a huge day for Bradley and Clark. Can they continue their (especially Bradley) incredible workrates and hamper service from Xavi and Xabi Alonso? Bradley more importantly will have to maintain his composure and pop up into the attack.

I honestly feel that the United States is one of the few countries/clubs in the world that can disrupt the Spain/Barcelona midfield game. But can we get any goals against the potent Spanish defense? I think so, if the US attacks down the 'weaker' left side.

What the hell, 2-1 United States beats Spain.

[Matrim55]

Our most important match-up is Bob Bradley vs. Himself. Does he have the wisdom (balls?) to go with two forwards, or is it squeaky bum time? Does he have the wisdom to realize you need a real d-mid in there (Clark), or will we see an overly aggressive central midfield pairing that Xavi and Cesc will tear to pieces?

Those are the questions we should be sweating at this point. Everything metioned above is academic if Bradley goes with yet another "pulled it out of a hat" lineup.

[TrueCrew]

Good stuff guys. Except for the predictions, of course.

Spain 3-1. No shame in losing to the best, even though they are missing arguably their best offensive midfielder (Iniesta) and best defensive midfielder (Senna). That one can barely tell is testament to their absurd depth in midfield.

[Matrim55]

Spain 3-1. No shame in losing to the best, even though they are missing arguably their best offensive midfielder (Iniesta) and best defensive midfielder (Senna). That one can barely tell is testament to their absurd depth in midfield.
This is overstated.

Spain is still great, but this team can be had (though probably not by us). I expect Brazil will beat them in the final.

If Iniesta and Senna were healthy, it would be a different story entirely.

[tehGEO]

Nice work.

I think 3-1 or 2-0 Spain. USA just doesn't have the horses, in the end.

If Howard, Demerit, Gooch and Spector play out of their damn minds maybe this will be kept close... who knows, anything can happen if the US actually gets some possession. But I'm not betting the farm on it happening.

No matter what happens tomorrow, gonna be a successful cup with worse case being South Africa for 3rd place.

[El Chuma]

Who has Spain tied in the last 35?

[SportsFan9]

Who has Spain tied in the last 35?
Sept. 8, 2007
Iceland 1 Spain 1 - Euro 2008 Group F qualifying

Oct. 17, 2007
Finland 0 Spain 0 - International friendly

June 22, 2008
Spain 0 Italy 0 - Euro 2008 quarter-final (4-2 PKs)

15 straight wins since then.

[LBS8844]

June 22, 2008
Spain 0 Italy 0 - Euro 2008 quarter-final (4-2 PKs)

And a fine match that was!

[JohnW]

To me, the key will be not giving up the early goal.

Even against Egypt, Demerit misplayed the ball in about the 5th minute allowing the Egyptian striker an open shot, then about 3 minutes later there was the cross that went across the box on the ground. (After that Donovan made a couple runs and the team seemed to settle down.)

Spain will punish the U.S. if we come out even slightly flat or disorganized.

I expect Spain to dominate in possession and us to look to counter-attack.

If it's 0-0 at half, I like our chances.

[49erFan1]

Spain obviously has the advantage in technical skill as well as in depth. For the USA to win they must do two things.

1. Limit the turnovers. Spain's possession style can wear down a team, when they press in return, we can't give the ball away quickly. Quick turnovers often lead to goals when playing a Spain. First touch will be critical. If Spain dominates the possesion more than 60-40 it will put more pressure on very tired legs.

2. Counter attack. Landon Donovan will be crucial. Sergio Ramos tends to get caught up the pitch, often deep up the pitch. Pique and Puyols are not the most fleet of CB, and they play a high line. If Donovan can take a quick touch and use his pace on the counter attack he may be able to draw some fouls and get us some set pieces. Our Counter Attack must produce at least 2 goals for us to win today, I don't see Spain giving up one on a build up play.

[DLee]

We could play "well" in relative terms and still lose 3-0 or 4-0. I just don't see us scoring.

[braun]

Spain obviously has the advantage in technical skill as well as in depth. For the USA to win they must do two things.

1. Limit the turnovers. Spain's possession style can wear down a team, when they press in return, we can't give the ball away quickly. Quick turnovers often lead to goals when playing a Spain. First touch will be critical. If Spain dominates the possesion more than 60-40 it will put more pressure on very tired legs.

2. Counter attack. Landon Donovan will be crucial. Sergio Ramos tends to get caught up the pitch, often deep up the pitch. Pique and Puyols are not the most fleet of CB, and they play a high line. If Donovan can take a quick touch and use his pace on the counter attack he may be able to draw some fouls and get us some set pieces. Our Counter Attack must produce at least 2 goals for us to win today, I don't see Spain giving up one on a build up play.

That miss by Donovan on a break-away is an example of our limitations on the field internationally or domestically. You have to finish those. Spain would finish those. O well, it's an old story.

Our counter-attacks will come on Spain's corners and set-pieces, where our height and strength will help.

Finland and Iceland are physical teams as is Italy really, which explains those draws vs Spain in '07 and '08.

[GringoTex]

JeremyEritrea:

Our lineup. Will Torres or Adu finally get a start?





Not Torres or Adu in the midfield. We can't beat Spain at their own game with lesser players. We have to be physical with them- it's our only chance.

[Morpheus1271]

To me, the key will be not giving up the early goal.

Even against Egypt, Demerit misplayed the ball in about the 5th minute allowing the Egyptian striker an open shot, then about 3 minutes later there was the cross that went across the box on the ground. (After that Donovan made a couple runs and the team seemed to settle down.)

Spain will punish the U.S. if we come out even slightly flat or disorganized.

I expect Spain to dominate in possession and us to look to counter-attack.

If it's 0-0 at half, I like our chances.

I actually disagree with you. I think if we going into the 2nd half tied, it's a curse of death for the US team. We either need to be up a goal or down a goal.

[Pandy Flapjack]

I actually disagree with you. I think if we going into the 2nd half tied, it's a curse of death for the US team. We either need to be up a goal or down a goal.

I don't know about anyone else but I'll take "Up a Goal".