Surprises

[Nutmeg]

What do these numbers mean to you at first glance?

337 - O'brien
287 - Donovan
15 - Hejduk
0 - Beasley
0 - Mastroeni
Those are the total numbers for minutes the above players saw in World Cup Qualifying during the last cycle. You can take off 90 minutes a piece for Donovan and O'brien, who both played full games at Trinidad and Tobago once qualification was in the bag. These guys played very minor roles in qualification for the 2002 World Cup, especially when compared against the minutes the following players saw:

Armas
Regis
Cobi
Kirovski
Razov
Moore
Llamosa

This second group of players saw major minutes in 2002 world cup qualification, yet for various reasons either did not make the world cup roster at all, or played minor roles in Korea. Bruce Arena is often criticized on BigSoccer for being too loyal and sticking with his guys when they no longer warrant the time. In some circumstances, I think that criticism is fair. But when you look at the guys in the second group, sans Armas, you have to admit that Bruce changed directions pretty dramatically between qualification and the world cup itself.

The other direction Arena went with were the guys in the first group. In some cases, injuries forced Arena's hand and made him go with guys like O'brien instead of Reyna, and then Mastroeni instead of Armas. In other cases, Bruce recognized that DaMarcus Beasley was coming on too strong to be ignored, and that despite all of Frankie's flaws, he was still a safer play than Regis.

The point I want to make is this - do not get too wrapped up on Arena's qualifying rosters. They will change. Time will shape them. Players will fall from grace, and others will rise. Players will be injured, and others will step in, grab the spotlight, and never let it go. Keep these numbers and the two groups of players above in mind when you want to pull your hair out in frustration when Arena goes with player-X for the umpteenth time. Chances are, time itself will weed those players out.

Now that I've layed the groundwork, I want to speculate where I think the biggest 2006 "surprises" will come from. By surprises, I mean players who I do not believe will see significant time in Qualification, but who for various reasons may see time in 2006. Just to be clear, these aren't predictions. Most of these will be dead wrong. Calling things out 3 years ahead of time has worse odds than pin the tail on the microscopic donkey. But its fun...

Target forward - I think Brian McBride will justly play a huge role in qualification. But nobody can ignore the fact that he is 34 now and plays a brutally physical style of soccer that has gotten him injured in the past.

Conor Casey: Casey may see time in qualification, but as long as McBride is healthy, I think it will be in a limited role. Sometime between next year and 2006, though, I think Casey gets a shot as the man up front for the US, and I think the job may be his in 2006. Other players to watch: Kenny Cooper, Edson Buddle.




Right midfielder: - I think Arena will stick with his system and not use a pure right midfielder most of the time. When he does, I think he'll go with utility guys like Ralston and Klein.

Eddie Gaven: By 2006, I think Arena may take a look at Gaven in the classic Earnie Stewart role. His play in MLS early this season has been remarkable, and I think it will be tough to ignore Gaven in some role on the world cup roster as Eddie gains experience. Other players to watch: Donovan dropped back from forward.




Defensive midfielder: - This job will likely rotate between players like Armas and Mulrooney through qualification, but I think there are younger players who are going to be too good to ignore in 2006.

Ricardo Clark: Size, speed, strength, ability on the ball, defensive prowess and acumen. The only thing Rico doesn't have is experience, but by 2006 he'll have 3 1/2 years of that, too. He's a step above anything we've had at that position previously. Other players to watch: Danny Szetela - really. Look out if this kid finally lands somewhere and starts playing.




Left back: - I imagine we'll continue to see a role player here most of the time in qualification, most likely Vanney or Hejduk. We might also see more experiments like Convey and possibly O'brien.

Danny Karbassiyoon: Recent news has Karb playing regularly at left back for Arsenal's reservce system. Considering that Arsenal is probably the world's best team right now, that is truly impressive. Keep your eye out on Karb. Other players to watch: Zack Whitbread, Jose Burciaga.




Right back: - If Sanneh gets back to health, Sanneh and Cherundolo will battle it out for the right back spot in qualification.

Chris Albright: He's 2006's version of Sanneh. Big, strong, converted forward who has found new life in a new position. He's played very well for LA, but I'd be surprised if he played a huge role in qualification, if Sanneh or Dolo slip, though... Other players to watch: Jonathon Spector.

[SamsOK]

Nutmeg,

Great post as usual, I wish I knew half as much as you do about soccer. One minor quibble though, McBride will be 34 in 2006, not now.

[Atouk]

Overall, another great post. Thanks for the effort. As I digest it some more, I may have a few more comments on the speculative side, but for now, here are a few small points/thoughts on your look back:

If you're counting the November '01 game at Trinidad, and you did in Donovan and O'Brien's numbers, Beasley started and so played 45 minutes in qualifying. As I recall, it was a slight concussion that knocked him out of the game -- Jones came on at the half.

Your point about Hejduk is spot on, but he had to have more than 15 minutes since he was a 74th minute sub in one appearance and a 77th minute sub in the other. However, as you point out, his is a perfect example of the rise-and-fall-and-rise-again nature of this process. His appearances were in the first two matches in the semifinal round. He didn't play again in the qualifiers. A bit of an oversimplication, but: a fall in form by Regis, a good Gold Cup for Hejduk, and boom -- Frankie is a World Cup starter.

Donovan's arc was an interesting one. Not even on our 18-man squad until the final game of the semifinal round, then only in our 18-man squad for two of the first six in the final round (both at home), didn't play in qualifying until our 7th game of the final round, but then started three of the final four and played in the other, before starting at three different positions and in all five games of the World Cup.

Also, I don't think injuries made him go with O'Brien instead of Reyna. They are rarely healthy at the same time, but after O'Brien established himself, when they both are healthy, they generally both start.

[Nutmeg]

Thank you both for the corrections and comments. I will try to edit my original post to be more accurate. My editor was fired a long time ago.

EDIT: No go on the edit. I guess the time limit passed.

[E Diddy]

OK, I'll go ahead and be the one to say it----

Freddy.

OK, now everyone can rip me a new one.

[Ghost]

Nutmeg, good post. I think we're going to really see this dilemma take shape this year for Bruce. For everyone that you named, I can name another one (or two). EJ, Simek, Marshall, Eskandarian etc. And you could see a Gbandi, for instance, sneak back into the picture. You made a good point in the MLS N&A thread on Ed Johnson about the number of players hitting 20 yoa this year and the importance of that age to professional development. We're about to really dip into our streak of young talent. I've been critical of the way that BA has handled this team for the past two years, giving obscene amounts of minutes to the Kirovskis of the world at the expense of the Caseys. In fact, I called for his resignation after the Haiti game, come to think about it, mainly citing the failure to adequately experiment with young players. But the young versus old thing is about to get really intense over the next twoish years. Yoiu can see that with some of the starts that the young guys have had this year.It was always going to wind up as a weird mix of players for the next cup --- Reynas and McBrides trying to hold onto spots and being challenged by talented 22 year olds. And that's starting to take shape.

I think Simek is a pretty big omission, as he is probably about to embark on a career outside of the reserves. He is a canddate for right back, and perhaps D-mid, possibly even right mid.

I too like the potential of Albright as the right back, and I think it is going to be hard to deny Gaven in some quote-unquote right wing role, sooner rather than later.

[Pgcruz]

Nice post Nutmeg, about right mid though. What do you think of Ben Olsen. He finally looks healthy this year. And when he's in form he's pretty good. You think he'll get a shot at right mid soon? It would be nice to see him play in some friendlies.

[luvdagame]

target forward and right midfield:
eddie johnson is also one to watch for both these positions, imho, as we proceed towards 2006. i keep dreaming about dmb on the left and ej on the right mesmerizing defenses with speed and skill, so much so that casey's less that pacey target forward moves (buddle is not a target forward the way he plays) won't be much of a drawback. don't know about cooper - have never seen him play.

[JimmieLivealot]

target forward and right midfield:
eddie johnson is also one to watch for both these positions, imho, as we proceed towards 2006.


I'm definetly hoping Eddie can break through this year but his is not a target forward. Almost all of his dangerous chances come when he's face to the goal and can dribble at defenders.

[luvdagame]

[QUOTE=JimmieLivealot]I'm definetly hoping Eddie can break through this year but his is not a target forward. Almost all of his dangerous chances come when he's face to the goal and can dribble at defenders.[/QUOTE
------------------------------------------------------------------
he did a great job controlling the ball with his back to the goal at the u20 world cup. he did, at that level, all the flick ons with his head, all the shielding of the ball, and all the passing off you would want a target forward to do. his marksmanship still is the thing he should work on, but he can play target forward.

[Bajoro]

This thread makes me think back to the final US WC2002 roster announcement -- although there had been b!tchin' and moanin' at every training camp and match roster for 3 solid years, the Cup roster was met with almost universal approval.

Great stuff, Nutmeg. Keep it coming.

[russ]

"although there had been b!tchin' and moanin' at every training camp and match roster for 3 solid years, the Cup roster was met with almost universal approval."

The main reason there was universal approval was injury,specifically the one to Armas.
Injuries are the reason why we need 30 players to consider for the final 18.

My contribution to the controversy is to point out that we need to look at as many possible options as we can in central midfield.

Right now we would -most of us- agree that a Reyna O'Brien central midfield w/ both healthy would be damn good.

I submit that due to JOB's injury history and Reyna's advancing age and declining mobility,this will not be the case in June 2006.

Thus the need to consider younger players NOW.

Possibles definitely Clark and Convey possibly Martino. Szetela and Spector if they play soon in England.Mastro is still a possiblity as well.

Any others guys?
Props to Nutmeg for creating this thread.

[JimmieLivealot]

=luvdagame------------------------------------------------------------------
he did a great job controlling the ball with his back to the goal at the u20 world cup. he did, at that level, all the flick ons with his head, all the shielding of the ball, and all the passing off you would want a target forward to do. his marksmanship still is the thing he should work on, but he can play target forward.

Eddie may have controlled the ball well but I don't remember him doing much distribution at the U20s. This could just be my mis-remembering, though. Either way looking at his performance with the Burn against defenders who know his tendencies still leads me to believe that Johnson is best as a supporting forward or winger. Last year he was nearly invisible when paired with Jason Kreis or Ali Curtis but became much, much more dangerous when Toni Nhelko was brought in.

[Sachin]

Is Buddle a target forward? I thought he preferred to be the other forward, but I could be wrong.

Also, will Karbassyoon be able to get first team time at Olympique Londres with all the other players in front of him? Or will be on loan to another team for the next few years?

Sachin

[Nutmeg]

I think Buddle and Johnson are similar players in that they both can run at defenders, but they can also post up and act as traditional target forwards. I think they differ from McBride and Casey in that they probably are not as good in the air.

I don't think, though, that target forwards have to be 6'3" tall and aerial monsters. They need to be able to:
1 - shield the ball from defenders
2 - be strong enough to play with their backs to the goal, and
3 - be able to combine well with forwards and midfielders who are more comfortable facing the goal and running at defenders.

Both Buddle and Johnson could develop into that type of player. The plus is they are versatile and skilled enough that they can turn around and take defenders on themselves, too. That's not a strong suit for either Casey or McBride. I don't know about Cooper.

[Martin Fischer]

I think Buddle and Johnson are similar players in that they both can run at defenders, but they can also post up and act as traditional target forwards. I think they differ from McBride and Casey in that they probably are not as good in the air.

I don't think, though, that target forwards have to be 6'3" tall and aerial monsters. They need to be able to:
1 - shield the ball from defenders
2 - be strong enough to play with their backs to the goal, and
3 - be able to combine well with forwards and midfielders who are more comfortable facing the goal and running at defenders.

Both Buddle and Johnson could develop into that type of player. The plus is they are versatile and skilled enough that they can turn around and take defenders on themselves, too. That's not a strong suit for either Casey or McBride. I don't know about Cooper.

I would add the fourth ability, not required, but desirable, that the forward be good enough in the air to make the threat of crosses realistic enough to keep defenses honest. I think that while Buddle and Johnson are not the aerial threat that Casey and McBride are, they are good enough the they can score off their head if there is a little space and the cross is decent.

For me, EJ is the most intriguing prospect as he meets all four requirements, can beat people off the dribble and can make off the ball runs that get behind the defense. But one goal, albeit a good one, does not answer the finishing question.

[stopper4]

While we're on EJ, he likes to shoot from outside, too, which is something I haven't seen McBride do too much. I think Buddle does, too.

[ttrevett]

First of all, Nutmeg, you should be doing the soccer writing for SI or someone else because I thoroughly enjoy reading your posts.

Secondly, I would agree that Simek, Spector and Karb are definately the ones to watch over the build-up to 2006. They might be the ones who play limited roles in qualifying due to their age and development, but earn a spot on the team in late 2005, early 2006 if they are playing consistently in the EPL for ManU, and Arsenal.

I hope I'm wrong about Martino, but his development (or lack thereof) is scaring me. He doesn't seem to have become the player I thought he would two years ago.

[Rahbiefowlah]

yeah, no sh!t nutmeg, what's your day job man? i'd rather read an article by you than see paul gardner's horns grow any longer. here's a tiny wildcard for right back: antonio de la torre..........i don't know, he seems skillful enough, has cojones to chip the keeper from midfield. i think his wife is american, right? and he has cool hair. and really really honestly, can you imagine us coming out onto the field in liepzig or someplace, next to france or somebody, all of us on our couches rubbing our hands together, and albright's fat head pops up out of the tunnel?

[onefineesq]

I read Nutmegs opening post and immediately thought to myself that I would be the one guy to give him props for a great post .......... until I read every one else had already beat me to the punch! anyway, I think that EJ is definitely the wildcard. This guy is ooozing talent out of his pores, and if he can just get his head together, he will be an AMAZING player at the national level. speed, strength, overall athleticism .......... you just hope he gets himself together. However, I do believe that Buddle can play a target role better than EJ, and frankly, I think it would be a waste of EJ's talents to make him a target forward. Hell, who says we need one. Let's put 2 guys of the field who play well together. period. I've been high on EJ for a year. So while it seemed that everyone had jumped off of his bandwagon the last 6 months, I'm hoping he makes me a genius this year.