2004 MLS Attendance

[mellon002]

I'm always fascinated by attendance numbers in MLS because of course it's the first thing people want to see to gage the success of the league. There are a few threads in the MLS forum regarding predictions and things like that and I think we can keep the predictions in there. This thread can be strictly from an analytical point of view. That being said:

League attendance is at 16,990 which can be attributed to Freddy-mania. I think Victoria Street was larger than the listed 27,000 because they opened the grassy knoll. If we could only get Dallas and San Jose to get their act together this league might have some great attendance numbers. I don't have the numbers for last year but here's what this year would look like without Dallas or SJ:

With: 18,990
Without: 23,468

That's a huge difference.

[mellon002]

A trend I've found is that Victoria Street has twelve consecutive games (playoffs included) with crowds of 20K+. Thirteen including MLS Cup. This is the benefit of a world class SSS.

[Auxodium]

That is the problem here in the NSL in Australia. It was Perth, Adelaide, South Melbourne, Brisbane & Newcastle propping up the other clubs.
I hope the APL uses the MLS, EPL & JLeague winning formula. I would take a 23,000 average attendance for the NSL or the New APL ANY DAY! :D

[mellon002]

Attendance in games without Freddy is at 14,828. Not very good through 3 weeks. Great crowd in New York of 31K but San Jose puts up a second straight game not being able to break 10K. Another game at Dallas will hurt the average next week. Hopefully they can do better than the 7K opening week. I was surprised at Chicago only drawing 12K but looking back at last year they started even slower.

[ChrisE]

Attendance in games without Freddy is at 14,828. Not very good through 3 weeks. Great crowd in New York of 31K but San Jose puts up a second straight game not being able to break 10K. Another game at Dallas will hurt the average next week. Hopefully they can do better than the 7K opening week. I was surprised at Chicago only drawing 12K but looking back at last year they started even slower.

Except last year they were playing in Cardinal Stadium, Naperville. I don't know what the deal was with 12,000 - weather, maybe - but it was certainly quite disappointing.

I'll be interested, as the season matures, to see the average attendance change Adu brings to a team - it's clear to me he's already earned the $500,000 salary that everybody keeps blathering about.

[numerista]

I'll be interested, as the season matures, to see the average attendance change Adu brings to a team - it's clear to me he's already earned the $500,000 salary that everybody keeps blathering about.

I think that this is probably true, but we ought to be careful about our conclusions. For instance, last week San Jose had dismal attendance. One of several factors was the fact that people preferred to skip opening day in favor of Adu (da) day.

[ChrisE]

I think that this is probably true, but we ought to be careful about our conclusions. For instance, last week San Jose had dismal attendance. One of several factors was the fact that people preferred to skip opening day in favor of Adu (da) day.

You're suggesting that people didn't go to the Quakes game because they knew Adu was coming in almost a month? It's an interesting point, but I don't know if I can buy into it. What might be interesting to track, just as much as Adu's effect, is his wake - do home attendances before DC visits fall, as you claim, in anticipation of his arrival, and do attendances after fall, for the same reason, or rise, as MLS attracts more fans?

[ChrisE]

That is the problem here in the NSL in Australia. It was Perth, Adelaide, South Melbourne, Brisbane & Newcastle propping up the other clubs.
I hope the APL uses the MLS, EPL & JLeague winning formula. I would take a 23,000 average attendance for the NSL or the New APL ANY DAY! :D

So would we, GF, so would we.

[Goodsport]

Great crowd in New York of 31K but San Jose puts up a second straight game not being able to break 10K.

Yeah, it's a damn shame that not a single person attended Spartan Stadium for the game that the Earthquakes played in New England! :rolleyes:


-G

[numerista]

You're suggesting that people didn't go to the Quakes game because they knew Adu was coming in almost a month? It's an interesting point, but I don't know if I can buy into it.
Yes, that's what I'm suggesting ... if you're a casual observer who'll attend one or two games all year, three weeks isn't much of a wait.

[mellon002]

Yeah, it's a damn shame that not a single person attended Spartan Stadium for the game that the Earthquakes played in New England! :rolleyes:


-G

True. Sorry, I guess I have just gotten used to seeing crowds below 10K in SJ. ;)

[ChrisE]

Yes, that's what I'm suggesting ... if you're a casual observer who'll attend one or two games all year, three weeks isn't much of a wait.

It's possible, and it's obviously worth tracking, but I doubt that's how things go. It's not like MLS tickets are prohibitively expensive. I'd suspect instead that most of these potential fans have a small chance of going to an MLS game (if, say, they know about it, don't have anything else going on, realize Landon Donovan's coming to town, are in a good mood, can find people to go with, etc.), and that Freddy just significantly increases their likelihood of going to that one DC game. Three weeks may not be a long time if you're only going to one MLS game a year, but why would anyone have already decided that they're only going to one MLS game all year?

[suppitty]

heres the solution. u move san jose to either portland or seattle. u move kc or colorado (one of them has a stadium planned so keep them in place) to oklahoma city. then u expand to rochester and bring in chivas usa to san diego, santa fe, houston, or phoenix. this way u solve the expansion by only adding 2 teams.

[Rommul]

heres the solution. u move san jose to either portland or seattle. u move kc or colorado (one of them has a stadium planned so keep them in place) to oklahoma city. then u expand to rochester and bring in chivas usa to san diego, santa fe, houston, or phoenix. this way u solve the expansion by only adding 2 teams.

Thats all well and good but what about the fans who DO come to games in those markets?

MLS should not be like other sports where they just have teams that have no loyalty to any city *cough*Raiders*cough*.

We don't need that kind of upheaval.

We need to start marketing these teams better.

[Goodsport]

but what about the fans who DO come to games in those markets?

MLS should not be like other sports where they just have teams that have no loyalty to any city *cough*Raiders*cough*.

We don't need that kind of upheaval.

We need to start marketing these teams better.

Abso-frickin'-lutely!


-G

[ChrisE]

I think this rather baffling thread hijacking is a first order sign that the Stats and Analysis forum has made it. If anyone could start a promotion/relegation statistics thread, I suspect we'd be able to verify this result.

[bilfish]

heres the solution. u move san jose to either portland or seattle. u move kc or colorado (one of them has a stadium planned so keep them in place) to oklahoma city. then u expand to rochester and bring in chivas usa to san diego, santa fe, houston, or phoenix. this way u solve the expansion by only adding 2 teams.

Let me be the voice of the lonely and humble Colorado Rapids Fans.

"I don't know you personally, but this idea blows."

BTW -- Oh, and I'm willing to say that if MLS DOES try this, I really will say screw it, buy the EPL package on Fox Sports World and never look back. It's time a major league felt responsible to its fanbase (investors).

[mellon002]

Contract San Jose. Only 17K to see Freddy start? Pathetic. The rest of the attendance for the league was pathetic as well with the exception of KC.

D.C. United at San Jose
17,667

Dallas at Columbus
13,271

Los Angeles at New England
13,811

MetroStars at Chicago
11,262

Colorado at Kansas City
24,740

[mellon002]

Another interesting aspect to watch as the Freddy circus continues is the percent decrease in attendance the following week for DC's away games. Such as:

Los Angeles - 27K to 20,317 (25% decrease)

NY/NJ - 31,419 to 8,129 (74% decrease)

Now of course there is going to be a decrease because Freddy is the most popular attraction in MLS. Perhaps the more interesting aspect will be to see how the following game compares to the season average. LA seems to be right around what their season average will be. 8K is definately lower than NY/NJ's season average. Will people decide that one game is enough and that's why the games that follow don't do well?

[mellon002]

This is starting to get troublesome. Dallas, Colorado, and San Jose can't be counted on for crowds over 10K anymore. Freddy didn't draw at least 20K for the second straight week.

New England
at Colorado
7,784

Los Angeles
at Dallas
6,755

Columbus
at D.C. United
18,376

Chicago
at Kansas City
11,094

MetroStars
at San Jose
7,522

Continuing with the percentage decrease following the Freddy circus, San Jose decreased 58% from last week to this week. :(