Three years later, has anything changed?

[Nermalthecat]

It's rarely good to post after a disgusting loss (see: Rica, Costa), but I went back to look at a post I made after the Czech loss in 2006 and realized that it may have been more on target than I hoped.

http://www.bigsoccer.com/forum/showpost.php?p=8691744

Some snippets:

"What we're left with is ... a team that, going forward, will be "led" by players -- very likely Donovan and Beasley -- who seem to have stagnated badly in their development vis a vis competing at the World Cup level."

"Donovan doesn't get tested enough in MLS to actually evolve positively as a player (nor does he seem to want to be) while Beasley seems to have been exposed at the higher levels of soccer as being woefully short of actual skill."

"The guy being groomed to take over (and maybe should have already, or at least acts like he has) is only 24, but doesn't show signs of ever being a good enough player to lead a US team to victory over a team of the caliber of the Czechs. Donovan likes to talk and act the part, but I'm afraid he will never be more than a good complementary piece on an elite team."

"I like what I see in the talent pipeline, but I have significant concerns about the leadership ability and the upside of the players who currently are considered the future of the national team. It also appears that our players do not develop the requisite skills at an early enough age and/or creativity is beaten out of them so they conform to the team concept. Moments of brilliance win at the World Cup, not moments of worthless possession and backpasses."

"These concerns go well beyond the disgusting performance today. It just seems like we're still a long way away from where we want to be. If we face a similar situation where Donovan is our best field player four years from now, I don't think the results will be much different from today."

So, is this the reality in 2009? Donovan is still our best field player and we may have the worst core of talent in recent Nats memory playing what has been almost exclusively forgettable soccer for at least a year?

Or are there signs of progress that I and others are not seeing? Bob has many issues as the manager, but it's not his job to develop talent.

[Arid_Torpor]

How would we expect that to change. Perhaps the post was prescient, but there wasn't a whole lot that could be addressed. You basically said that the future crop of guys looked good but that there was lack of ability and leadership in the current (Donovan, Beas, Dolo, Gooch, etc.) generation. Well, that's still true. The new guys look to have a lot of potential, and they're having to step in early because the current generation of veterans is not impressing anyone. But what were we going to do about that in the last three years. After 2006, was there really much possibility that Donovan was going to go from the best US player to one of the best in the world? Was Beasley going to become a consistent go to guy? I don't think so. We just have to develop the young guys as quickly as we can and hope they can take over, because there are very few veterans right now who are reasonably trustworthy (Howard, Gooch, and Donovan are solid, but the group gets dicey after that).

[Nermalthecat]

We just have to develop the young guys as quickly as we can and hope they can take over, because there are very few veterans right now who are reasonably trustworthy (Howard, Gooch, and Donovan are solid, but the group gets dicey after that).

Well, the other part of the 2006 post was lamenting that we were in a transitional period from the Reyna/McBride core to the Donovan/Beasley/Whatever group. The problem, as you hinted at, isn't as much that Landon is what he is and Beasley has regressed horribly as much as over the last three years we haven't developed anyone else that's any good. There have been a lot of flavors of the month that haven't worked out for various reasons (injury, skill level, bizarre coaching agendas, etc.)

An honest question: When's the last time you walked away thinking we played 90 minutes of quality soccer? It sure hasn't been in WCQs despite a couple 3-0 home wins over T&T.

[Ghost]

We have a left mid trying to cover at left back, to disastrous results, just like last time

Our first choice lineup has five players over 30, just like last time. (Howard, Boca, Ching, Mastroeni, Cherundolo/Hejduk.)

We don't know who is going to score up top.

[TulkasTheStrong]

We have a left mid trying to cover at left back, to disastrous results, just like last time

Our first choice lineup has five players over 30, just like last time. (Howard, Boca, Ching, Mastroeni, Cherundolo/Hejduk.)

We don't know who is going to score up top.

Just asking, but don't most of the WC teams have at LEAST 5 players starting who are over 30? If I recall correctly, a significant number of teams have even more than that.

I don't know if you're calling that a negative or what, but WC teams are generally best when the core of the team is around that age, and there are some very good youngsters thrown in.

Clearly, at least to me, we lack both still, and will for the near future and possibly beyond. Hard to say when it'll ever come. Here's hoping though.

[Adam Zebrowski]

usa depth is far better...the pool contains MORE good players...

usa with altidore will seat ching...

i think davies is better too...

injuries killed usa in 2006, gibbs, JOB, hejduk,

right now usa at least has people who are decent..

rome wasn't built in a day despite the impatience of some...

let's revisit after tonight...

usa responded after t&t....will it tonight??

[VioletCrown]

Definitely worth revisiting after tonight.

What I've been finding myself doing it comparing to how things were in the '02 qualifying run. We found ourselves in a similarly difficult run of games with lots of injuries. Some players stepped up in that run, but it wasn't until Arena brought in Donovan and Beasley that things sparked.

I'm going on memory here, so I wouldn't be surprised to be wrong, but I'm pretty sure we were aware of those guys before they were brought in right before the actual Cup -- they were potential hot young guns that could spark things, and did.

Things just don't feel that way now. The two hot young guns, Altidore and Adu, have actually been playing with the US for a while now, and haven't really done much. Now, maybe that's a good thing. Maybe they'll be settled in and do something grand.

But I just don't see anyone else out there to help us out in any strong way.

Then again, after so many years since the Olympics, maybe it's Connor Casey. Not that he's young. But maybe he's that 'right age.'

[Peretz48]

As many have pointed out, we are producing a greater number of serviceable players, greatly adding to our depth, but few players capable of displacing many of the 1st string incumbents. Even looking to our youth teams, where are the individual players coming out of the U20s who would be considered on the "fast track?" Beyond maybe Adu & Altidore, I wonder? There was some hope for Robbie Rogers last year, but he has slid back this year. A lot of hopefuls, but nobody stepping forth to seize an opportunity.

[TrueCrew]

We have much greater depth, and more players player abroad than we did four years ago.

Now, the cream of the crop (McBride, Reyna) isn't really any better, and might be a tad worse. But there are so many possibilities:

GK: Howard, Guzan, Robles, Perkins, Pickens, Seitz
D: Wynne, Marshall, Parkhurst, Goodson, Cameron, Pearce, Borsntein
M: Adu, Bradley, Edu, Torres, Feilhaber, Holden, Szetela, Zizzo, Rogers, White, C. Clark
F: Altidore, Tracy, Cooper

A bit of slim pickings up front, but very nice, pretty young talent elsewhere. And a nice batch of uber talented super youngsters (Renken, etc) that are signing developmental deals in Europe. When we have generation of players who grew up in the European/SA system. They'll have some creativity left, and better technical and tactical skills to build upon.

Also, when we have more talent in the top leagues (which is probably coming), the fact that you are a starter in a top 5 Euro league will no longer guarantee one a place on the team. It will create competition for spots, and there will be consequences for poor performances. We don't have it now.

Donovan has realized (belatedly) that MLS had little left to offer him. Maybe he won't take a big step, but a step forward will happen after this year. And lets not write of DMB just yet. Let's see what he plays like when he's getting regular minutes, and not playing out of position (or is more familiar with the position he's playing).

[jsimm]

While the overall skill level of our player pool has gone up, our top end players have not improved. I had wild hopes for Donovan & Beasley after 2002 but it hasn't happened. The only players that has gotten better since 2006 are Howard & Dempsey (dispite Saprissa). Among the newer players, Bradley is about the only one who really seems to have the talent. Adu has been the great potential for 5 years now and we're still waiting. I hold out great hope for Torrez, Edu & Altidore but I fear it's 2002 redux.

However, we are a team with no speed at CB, a rt back with perhaps a career ending injury ala JOB, with no sign of a replacement and no signs of a left back anywhere. Oh, and we don't score & our domestic league isn't producing any superstars at the moment. Perhaps some coaching would work out the mids and the strikers but Guus Hidink would be hard pressed to field a defense.

[Mr Martin]

Just asking, but don't most of the WC teams have at LEAST 5 players starting who are over 30? If I recall correctly, a significant number of teams have even more than that.

I don't know if you're calling that a negative or what, but WC teams are generally best when the core of the team is around that age, and there are some very good youngsters thrown in.


I don't have my 2006 WC age distribution numbers handy, but my recollection is that close to 60% of WC players are between ages 25-30. That's about 6 of 11 starters. Then there are typically 2-3 younger than that and 2-3 older than that.

The mean and median age is 27.

[russ]

How tall are they?














:)

[voros]

Just asking, but don't most of the WC teams have at LEAST 5 players starting who are over 30? If I recall correctly, a significant number of teams have even more than that.
In the World Cup? No.

Here's the age data for the last three World Cups:

Age GK DF MF FW OF
40 2 0 0 0 0
39 2 1 0 0 1
38 1 1 0 1 2
37 11 1 4 2 7
36 10 3 3 2 8
35 14 12 8 9 29
34 20 13 19 13 45
33 19 37 24 15 76
32 21 39 31 22 92
31 20 54 30 19 103
30 18 49 68 35 152
29 24 73 65 42 180
28 22 68 69 47 184
27 23 71 71 37 179
26 12 59 78 56 193
25 15 69 67 54 190
24 20 43 50 35 128
23 13 46 48 23 117
22 3 30 41 24 95
21 9 10 19 35 64
20 4 8 8 11 27
19 0 3 5 4 12
18 2 1 2 1 4
17 0 0 0 3 3

For our purposes the 30 year olds are players born in 1980 or earlier. 73% of the outfield players on WC Rosters are younger than that. Even slightly more than half (52%) of the goalkeepers are.

[USA4Life]

How about Altidore, Bradley, Torres, and Adu. These are four great young players.
With Bradely at center mid the US has a big midfielder. We haven't had a guy like this since Tom Dooley.

The level of talent and the ability to pass the ball is better than in years past.

The team had one bad game. Relax.

[Karl K]

As some have said, what's changed is that we are deeper. Even four years ago, I don't think we could have fielded two separate squads for two summer tournaments.

But are we better? Not really.

We gave no great players. We have no field player right now who would ever make the best 11 in a top league. Teams with great players tend to go deep into tournaments; teams with not so great players tend not to.

We are going to have great games and awful games. Our team is held together by string and glue. This is what it is.

Root for the USA but don't labor under any illusions. This is as good as its going to get.

[Knave]

Our progress over the last 3 years is not the proper metric. I've said it before and I'll say it again: I really do not believe this team has made any substantial progress since 2002.

[JohnR]

I've said it before and I'll say it again: I really do not believe this team has made any substantial progress since 2002.

In hindsight, 2002 represented a cyclical peak. Team leaders Reyna, O'Brien, McBride, Sanneh, and Pope were in peak form, and the young guns Donovan and Beasley outperformed expectations. Toss in role players like Frankie, Earnie Stewart, Eddie Lewis, and Cobi also playing as well as they ever would, and we had a squad where all the pieces came together, for that brief period.

I do think we are gradually improving our player pool yes, but the cyclical factor is also important. If the right players aren't in good health and in good form at the same time, you can have a deeper pool but not as strong of a team.

Put another way, it will be a while before we can be misfiring on a few cylinders, and still be able to muster up a team that is better than the 2002 version. Someday, yes I think that will happen. The great soccer countries can always assemble a better squad than what we did that year -- even if they didn't necessarily beat us in the actual match (right, Portugal?). But the good ones, not so.

[Ghost]

Just asking, but don't most of the WC teams have at LEAST 5 players starting who are over 30? If I recall correctly, a significant number of teams have even more than that.

I don't know if you're calling that a negative or what, but WC teams are generally best when the core of the team is around that age, and there are some very good youngsters thrown in.


Not to my recollection.

[Ghost]

I don't have my 2006 WC age distribution numbers handy, but my recollection is that close to 60% of WC players are between ages 25-30. That's about 6 of 11 starters. Then there are typically 2-3 younger than that and 2-3 older than that.

The mean and median age is 27.

2-3 would be alright with me. It's the 4 or 5 that bugs me. Especially when the 4-5 this time around aren't as good or professionally distiguished as the 4-5 last time around. Reyna, McBride, Lewis, Keller, Pope. This time, Howard, Ching, Mastroeni, Boca, Hejduk/Cherundolo. Heck, it could happen we switch Frankie over to left back, giving us six.

[JohnR]

This time, Howard, Ching, Mastroeni, Boca, Hejduk/Cherundolo. Heck, it could happen we switch Frankie over to left back, giving us six.

Howard is in his prime and GK, he doesn't count. Mastro and Ching surely won't start in WC ... right? :eek: