People have been griping about the World Cup draw, especially this year. So I thought I'd see what would happen if you set up the World Cup groups by a non-random process. Here's how it works: 1. Start with the current FIFA rankings. Yes, I know all the problems with them--but they're what FIFA would be likely to use if they adopted a seeding system. 2. Assign each team to a group in a snake pattern. So the top ranked eight teams go in pots 1 through 8, the next best also goes in pot 8, the next best in pot 7, and so on. 3. If a natural placement would result in a confederation having more than one spot, skip it and move to the next pot. Europe is allowed to have 5 pots with 2 teams. 4. If there is no place to put a team in the fourth position, it is swapped with the previous team until a valid result is reached. (Theoretically this can get complicated--in this case, only the last two teams, Australia and Cameroon, were swapped). Here's the ranking that resulted (assuming no upset in the final qualifier); the numbers are the FIFA ranking used. (Brazil was seeded first, of course). Do you think these would be more or less balanced than what a FIFA draw would give us? Do you think this would be subject to gaming, with teams trying to tank their FIFA ranking for some perceived advantage? Would you rather have a deterministic system like this one, or would you miss the random draw? POT 1 Brazil (11) Bosnia-Herzegovina (16) Cote d'Ivoire (17) Australia (56) POT 2 Spain (1) Greece (15) Ecuador (22) Cameroon (59) POT 3 Germany (2) Chile (12) Croatia (18) South Korea (56) POT 4 Argentina (3) Portugal (14) Russia (19) Iran (49) POT 5 Colombia (4) USA (13) France (21) Japan (44) POT 6 Belgium (5) England (10) Ghana (23) Honduras (34) POT 7 Uruguay (6) Italy (9) Mexico (24) Nigeria (33) POT 8 Switzerland (7) Netherlands (8) Costa Rica (31) Algeria (32)
I already did what you suggest, except I got the following groups. Which I like even more, since I made one adjustment to make sure teams from the same confederations were put in different groups. (UEFA eligible to have 2 teams in any group but others only 1). Incidentally, I don't know about the rest of you with your comments underestimating Iran, but I really like Group E! Group B Spain (#1) Bosnia (#16) Ivory Coast (#17) Australia (#57) Group C Germany (#2) Greece (#15) Ecuador (#22) South Korea (#56) Group D Argentina (#3) Portugal (#14) Croatia (#18) Cameroon (#59) Group E Colombia (#4) USA (#13) Russia (#19) Iran (#49) Group F Belgium (#5) Chile (#12) Ukraine (#20) Japan (#44) Group G Uruguay (#6) England (#10) Ghana (#23) Honduras (#34) Group H Switzerland (#7) Italy (#8) Mexico (#24) Nigeria (#33) Group A (hosts) Brazil (#11) Netherlands (#8) Costa Rica (#31) Algeria (#32)
Considering that there are no friendly matchdays before the World Cup draw that didn't also have qualifiers, how much opportunity would there be for teams to "tank their FIFA Ranking" even if they wanted to? Teams that considered doing that would have to try to guess whether Portugal or Sweden would win the playoff (and the same goes for other playoffs) in order to guess what World Cup group would be better for them. Also by tanking their FIFA Ranking it could make it harder for the country to qualify for World Cup 2018.
The idea is, since the seeds would be determined by formula instead of a draw, teams with dead rubbers at the end of qualifying (like the U.S. this time around) might be able to affect their pot by taking a dive in those games--or, in the U.S. case, whether Mexico or Panama advanced might actually affect their placement, for instance. I don't think it's likely myself, but was wondering if someone smarter than I might be able to come up with a scenario.
Fortunately, that is not going to mess Iran's group (Group E)! Just put France in place of Ukraine in Group F and that group suddenly looks a lot tougher!
Using this method for earlier world cups get the following draws (using ELO for World Cups prior to 1994) 2010 A South Africa Chile Serbia North Korea B Brazil Mexico Cote d'Ivoire New Zealand C Spain Greece Paraguay South Korea D Netherlands Cameroon Australia Slovenia E Italy Switzerland Uruguay Japan F Germany USA Denmark Ghana G Argentina Portugal Algeria Slovakia H England France Nigeria Honduras
2006 A Germany Costa Rica Iran Angola B Brazil Croatia Poland Australia C Netherlands Japan Tunisia Trinidad & Tobago D Czech Republic Sweden South Korea Ghana E Argentina Italy Saudi Arabia Serbia & Montenegro F France England Paraguay Togo G Mexico Portugal Ecuador Ukraine H USA Spain Switzerland Cote d'Ivoire