Online tool is based on Excel simulator model built by dlokteff, formulas for Elo% come from their site. The Winning % formula was derived by Dr. Lokteff using results of group games from the past 4 World Cups. The games are simulated via a random number combined with those formulas. Ties are broken randomly (we don't simulate scores of games, so no GD). Brazil gets extra points for being a host, their opponents have 100 points subtracted. FIFA and SPI converted into an "Elo" based on fitting it to a curve based off the Elo ratings and ranking. Match Predictor is using the same model, and you have a choice to apply custom weighting factors which will affect probability. Drs. Q., W., Y. have contributed to adapting of simulator model to Match Predictor. Tool is hosted on free Web hosting sites, so be patient if site is down or slow, from my experience 1st link is more reliable: http://pirozhok.somee.com/sim.aspx http://aspspider.info/pirozhok/sim.aspx Any feedback, questions, suggestions/ideas, bug reports - feel free to PM or post in the thread.
Could be Russia instead of Belgium, both teams missed previous WCs, nobody knows how they will do this summer.
It's different everytime you simulate it, I got Brazil, Germany, Spain, Portugal, Netherlands, Argentina, France, England, United States, Chile, Mexico, Iran (and probably a few more) all winning at least once
I usually get Brazil as a champ when i run using ELO ratings. Spain, Uruguay, and Argentina come close.
Some team named "England" has won a couple times. Might want to look into that bug for the next update. Also, I wonder how long some poor Honduran or Algerian is going to spend trying to simulate this thing until their country wins.
It's not a bug, simulator is based on ratings, and UK is #6 in all systems: http://pirozhok.somee.com/elo.aspx
I got the US topping our group (tied with Germany on 5 points, both with +3 goal differential), then beating Belgium and Ecuador in the knockout stages, before losing to Brasil in the Semifinals. We went on to defeat Mexico in the third place game. Brasil beat Germany in the final. this was using ELO.
Ran one sim for each of the different ranking systems. Got a final of Brazil over Argentina all three times.
All 3 systems we are using are pretty close to each other, so results should not be drastically different. If i have time tonight, i will add converted to ELO points column to all 3 ranking tables, so you can compare team ratings using the same base.