World Cup 2014 - Group G: Preview & Analysis

It didn't really worked then, as they were dominated by pretty much every good team they met. They were dominated by Argentina in quarters and were saved by the penalty shootout. They were beaten by Italy who scored twice during overtime where certainly "superior fitness" should have prevailed ?

 

Oh the benefit of hindsight.

Germany in 2006 totally overperformed, people tend to forget that this WC followed what was possibly the weakest period in German football and an absolute lowpoint. Nobody before the tournament gave Germany any chance at all. Klinsmann somehow brought a massive performance boost out of them so that achievement shouldn't be overlooked.
And Argentina were only dominating for the first 75 minutes , after that and in extra time Germany reversed it

 

I don't see how they were dominated by either Argentina or Italy. But the 2006 team simply wasn't that good technically. They put up a good fight against both those teams, each with superior individual players. They came back against an Argentinian side that was one of the hottest teams, maybe even THE favorite to win it all and I think they really looked good against Italy. Germany was certainly punching above its weight in both those matches.

Either way, I really don't think that fitness was their problem. It was a mixture of an outmoded 4-4-2 system with individual weak links and no depth whatsoever. And of course it didn't help that the most important player at that time (Frings) was suspended due to the scuffle with the Argentinians after the quarter final.

Remember that just before the World cup, Germany lost 4-1 to Italy and looked absolutely terrible. Italy totally destroyed them. In fact, this almost cost Klinsmann his job before the WC even started, because it was his A team that got hammered and the DFB officials started to lose their nerves.

 

Beat me to it

 

Argentina began the Mexico rout on a Tevez goal that was so offside that he could have had a one-on-one conversation with Mexico's keeper before the defenders arrived back in the play.

 

Agreed. Wrong offside calls happen in every game but the Tevez call was an unbelievably shocking decision

 

Granted, Mexico's players did not respond at all appropriately to that call and lost their composure. It's similar to what happened to CIV's players with the Luis Fabiano handball, which was pretty intentional since he move his upper arm towards the ball. CIV's players lost their composure as well. Good teams shouldn't lose their composure, but this highlights the fact that the World Cup and football in general are inundated with poor officiating. And it's a hard sport to officiate too. Only the most blatant acts of gamesmanship are really ever remembered.

 

I don't think it's surprising that teams lose their compsure when they're outmanned and playing a superior foe. They need the refs to be at the top of their game to have a chance considering the dispairity in talent/ability of the two squads, when the poor calls conspire against their efforts, that can make almost any team snap. The great ones don't, but that's usually why they're the great ones.

 

This is true.

I have to add that the same thing happened to England against Germany with the Lampard goal that wasn't called. It's why you kinda have to train your team to expect the worse in big games. I personally believe that there is a tendency among referees to give the benefit of the doubt to bigger name players. The team that they think is better tend to get more calls. This type of bias is impossible to avoid and occurs in every sport. Take the Dallas Mavericks first NBA Finals against the Heat; D-Wade got fouls called for breathing on him and the Mavs lost their composure. The second time around the Mavs expected the worst and were prepared for it. It's harder in football though bc there are so few goals scored. In all three of those examples, the games were close until the controversial call happened. And the underdogs were disheartened by a single bad call which either allowed or disallowed a goal.

 

Looking at the venues where most games will take place ... G has the smell of a Group Of Sweat ... still I'm expecting high intensity games instead of playing with minimal effort and exertion ... for all 4 teams this could turn into a war of attrition. Usually fatigue and recuperation become more important issues when making deep runs ... yet the final 30 minutes of these games could prove to be demanding.

Portugal could be the team that tries to sit back the most but when needed they can crank up the tempo. For a while they were somewhat disorganised in their qualifying campaign + friendlies ... yet Portugal is one of those tournament teams and I expect this won't be an issue in Brazil. Regardless of their gameplan, I'm guessing that conserving energy will be hard in each of their 3 group matches.

The German defense has been shaky at times and Low will most likely work harder at (near) perfect defense than when it was already solid ... breaking it down will require lots of commitment. Seeing that they tend to swarm the middle of the park when the opposing team is trying to break through there or suffocate the wide men if they have the ball ... both teams will have to display a high work rate.

There seems to be a consensus already that playing against the USA won't be a walk in the park ... and I agree fitness levels will have to be of the highest standards. The same goes for Ghana who also have enough pace and stamina in their squad. In every game I expect only a few moments to 'catch your breathe' ... slowly building up play with pass move seems less likely than a more direct attacking style and breaking down defenses will only be possible by commiting plenty of players and running the extra miles.

 

I look back at the US experiences in cups. Sometimes there were matches in which a call was up to the eye of the beholder, like the non-pk the us gave up that Friedel saved against S. Korea (both players had arms wrapped around one another), the Donovan goal waived off against Poland which caused a Tevez style melt down. Looking at the play you see Donovan score on a header to equalize in about the 10th minute, the goal is waived off because a Polish player the equivalent of a TE, to Donovan's Placekicker size took a dive. Some argue it was a foul, Im suspicious when a guy the size of Donovan is causing a player far larger to fall down, and get a goal waived off. The US was irate, argued vociferously with the ref while Poland counterattacked with ref support and immediately made it 2-0 in less than 30 seconds going the other way. That melt down should have cost us the QF run, instead, Portugal bailed us out by losing their minds against S. Korea, and after 5 flubbed break aways, S. Korea finally scored and knocked Portugal out w/some GK help. A similar, depends on how you interpret it call was made in the QF with Germany where an auto red card and PK should have been awarded for Frings pulling a Suarez, but the ref was delusional and didn't give the PK or the red. Frings arms were at a 135 or so degree angle when the ball hit it. Regardless as to whether he was moving it or not (he was), the arm was acting as an extra goal keeper arm by his leaving it in that position. That's an auto PK, some disagree, but there arguments are flawed. In that game the US didn't break down mentally, and nearly drew it later w/a header that flashed just over the cross bar.

In '06 the US had the Italy red cards, where at least one of those cards was harsh and they held together mentally, not so much against Ghana when the Reyna nightmare injury goal, followed by the bogus PK right after Dempsey equalized more or less broke their spirit.

In '10 it was the opposite, I've never personally seen a team have 3 legit goals denied in back to back group games but that happened against Slovenia and Algeria. A screen capture was even made of the goal against Slovenia which showed the entire Slovenian team commiting fouls in the box on the corner where Edu scored, and yet the ref not only waived off the goal, but actually inexplicably called a foul on the US. At the time I could only imagine the ref was either paid off, or in a moment of tension accidentally called the wrong team for the foul like Ref Tripplet in the notorious Thanksgiving game, when a coin toss was held, the steelers called (heads I think? its been a while), tripplet then said "Steelers call Tails" and coin came up heads. Bettis and others looked at Tripplet like he'd been dosed with acid or shrooms. I wonder if that's what happened to the ref, he recently was involved in some bizarre CAF fixing scandal in which he was approached by Tunisian figures to rig their playoff with Cameroon, so there's that, but that doesn't mean he's guilty, just that guys came to him to get him to throw a game. Anyway the US beats slovenia 3-2 only for the ref to keep it a draw in one of the worst 3 calls in US World Cup History. Following that the US scores early against Algeria TWICE, and the ref calls both offsides when NEITHER are. I have no idea how the US didnt melt down from that, that they scored in the 91st minute a third goal to win 1-0 is astounding to me.

So with the US you can see in the last three cups vastly differing responses to the stress of getting hosed by the ref, sometimes its circumstances, sometimes its just the mentality of the team. Perhaps the US handled getting hosed so badly in Africa better because of the absurd, pure luck, howler that gave them a draw against England? So they felt luck was evening out? Not sure. Maybe they were just more mentally tough. But in '02 they handled issues, in '06 they didn't in the group finale, and in '10 they handled again. Interesting.

As for the hoops examples, you've got it. In basketball its been particularly egregious with ref(s?) on the take. The Sac-Lakers game from several years ago being one of the most notorious examples of either fixing, or simply giving everything to the favorites. I've seen it in all sports though. Irvin and the Cowboys got a pile of calls when they were winning super bowls that they don't anymore. The Niners were notorious for getting calls, except when they didn't (the '83 championship game at washington). the packers got some brutal calls going their way in Favre's prime in the late nineties. Kobe got the calls, ditto Jordan. Teams get calls when they're winning, and players get calls in the NBA because of the system which is marketed based on players, so refs feel a pressure there on top of simply having the natural of all bias towards the favorite and/or the home favorite.

Supposedly and Madden swears by this, after the Immaculate Reception TD at Pittsburgh that was illegal and gave the Steelers a ticket to the Super Bowl with zero seconds left instead of the Raiders, Madden was screaming at a ref absolutely livid, and quoted the ref as saying back to him, "I'd like to get out of hear alive, TOUCHDOWN!"

Sometimes the bias is blatant, but like you think sporting bias is similar to that of boxing, if a contender wants to beat the champion, he not only has to beat them, he has to beat them w/o question and without leaving any room whatsoever, even for a blind judge, for doubt. In sports, if you're an underdog you have to look at it that way. The US got screwed against Germany, knowing that going ahead, they needed to finish the opportunities they had to take the power out of the incompetent refs hands (Donovan's 2 chances for goals, Lewis's chance, Reyna's midfield volley, or Sanneh's flashing header just high), leaving it up to the refs against a world power or heavy favorite is ALWAYS playing with fire.

I kind of think S. Korea's run was more in keeping with the Raiders issue, the fans created an insane atmosphere for S. Korea which intimidated refs, and I think made them gun shy when it came to relatively close calls. Doesn't explain how the S. Korea got to keep France from scoring a goal despite being two yards into the goal mouth when he saved it though? Lol, that was one of those all time worst calls.

 

How many points will it take to advance from Group G? Will 1-1-1 (4 pts) be enough? If so, I could imagine a scenario in which the US gets 3 pts vs Ghana, and could nick a draw vs Portugal. If Germany defeats everyone, and Portugal & Ghana draw, we're in!

 

Re

Regarding Frings in 2002 - absolutely correct decision. The ball hit the player's arm, that's not a penalty or even red. No experienced ref would give this. Is he supposed to take his arm off?

 

As a big guy, I find this line of thinking really annoying. Now, I'm not saying during this particular play the Polish player didn't go down easier than he normally would have. But just because someone is big, doesn't mean little guys can't foul you. And guess, what? Because you're big, it's really hard for a little guy to actually knock you down. Which means it's pretty rare you get a foul call your favor. Maybe that's why the Pole went down like he did. And it doesn't just happen in soccer either. In pretty much all sports the little guy gets the advantage call against the big guy.

Sorry for the rant. It's just one of my pet peeves.

 

I think the stereotype of US superior fitness is a little exaggerated. Compared to CONCACAF, maybe, we are pretty fit but we only recently began to play the high-pressing style that top teams play under Klinsmann and many players struggled with his fitness regime. Guys like Donovan and Bradley have world class fitness, but I can't think of any other player that would have a fitness advantage over any of these teams. The Germans may get zonked by the weather but they are typically one of the most fit and athletic teams around. In fact, I imagine the German contingent of the US are among our most fit players.

 

It's not really just fitness, it's also heat. Many American players grow up playing in hotter summer conditions than any Europeans. For any player that's ever played in MLS, they know how to deal with heat and humidity. The Germans and the Portuguese don't have that experience.

 

In 1994 and 2010 the climate was less of an issue, so I'm using WC2002 as an indicator. Heat & humidity wasn't a big issue for the Germans during their group matches in 2002 while in the KO stage they arguably had more difficulty ... still that squad was much older than the current one (or the 2010 squad), there was friction within the team and little was expected of the Germans in 2002 after a poor display at EURO2000. The 2014 squad still boasts one of the highest standards of all NTs that are going to Brazil when it comes to work rate & stamina and they'll be thoroughly prepared for the conditions they'll face in Brazil ... even when they play at a lower tempo, they can be deadly ... e.g. when already qualified before the 3th match + with the KO stage in mind doesn't mean the Germans will be a walkover.

In any case I expect all matches to be heavily contested ... even when it's unusually hot & humide, the form of the day will be the determining factor.

 

Just curious where you're from, because you're underestimating the effect of jungle heat. It changes the game and it changes the tactics profoundly.

 

@LongDuckDong: in a previous post you could have read that I agree that the weather conditions will have an impact, especially when looking at the way these teams win their games ... I called it a Group Of Sweat ... still when you consider all the aspects, heat & humidity will be less decisive than e.g. technical abilities of the players, repertoire of efficient & effective tactics, being 'on fire' (in their first game at WC2002 the 'cold-blooded' Germans cut the allegedly 'heat-proof' S.Arabians to ribbons ... 8 - 0 ... even when lowering the tempo in the 2nd half, they still scored 4 more goals). This German squad in 'uber-spirit' is a huge improvement on that 2002 squad and will be better prepared to cope with the conditions in Brazil ... I don't expect them to burn out in the early stages.

PS as a fan of direct attacking football I'm enthralled by a fast-paced match in which many chances are created ... while I usually get bored quickly when a 'controlled' one with minimal effort and exertion is going nowhere. During those few moments when everything comes together, great squads can display jaw dropping combinations and be unplayable ... but how often have you seen a team achieve little to nothing after 90 minutes of sterile possession? Most likely I will be bored at times as I've grown accustomed to the tempo of the big leagues + UCL ... yet even in this Group Of Sweat I'm expecting to see high intensity games ... the football culture/philosophy of the countries in this group is based less on energy conservation than for example Holland ('Ollandse School).

 

Bias or what buddy?! It's pretty obvious you have no clue WTF you're talking about with respect to Portugal. You haven't paid attention to their history of qualification vs actual tournament play. They have been one of the most consistent and strongest sides in the last few footy majors. This GOD will actually favor their playing style because they simply play their best when their backs are against the wall.

I sure hope all the other three coaches don't share this simplistic and very ill founded summary of this Portuguese team because they would all get their asses handed to them. The one and main thing you fail to realize is that this Portuguese team is one tough bitch to beat when it matters most.

Keep your day job, scout! LOL

 

Portugal had been playing in a disorganised manner far too often during this campaign ... as a result they look weaker ... still on tournaments they tend to get it together. According to the bookmakers Portugal is favored in their matches against Ghana and the USA yet on the day I expect it to be much tighter.

 

On any given day any good team can beat another so I definitely think all these games in this group are up for grabs including Germany's points which some think are a lock. I wouldn't be surprised if Germany is in a dog fight for points with the other three in the group. I suspect too the strongest one that comes out of this group will go deep if they can rest and re-energize in time from the brutal travel,weather conditions, and tough competition within the group.

 

It's already been pointed out to you if you didn't recall how far Portugal has gone in many of the last major tournaments. When they bow out, it's usually to the eventual winner by a mere goal or even penalties at a deeper stage.

I don't put to much merit on FIFA rankings but there is a reason they have been consistently on average a top 5-10 team the last 10 years and are currently 5th.

BTW, I wasn't the one trying to analyze them with a scouting report. I know better to not underestimate them. Teams like this are far more unpredictable and dangerous than you seem to think. Portugal has long been a country that most other nations would rather not meet too early.

If you're serious about scouting them, go back and watch both legs of the Sweden games and watch how the team plays outside of Ronaldo if you really think this is a one man team. Try to watch the Spain-Portugal friendly too right after the WC where they dismantled Spain 4-0 after losing to them by a mere 1-0 at 2010 WC. Get back to me then. You've got a lot of ignorance in your original post about this team.