Easy dude, i'm perfectly happy with the spots Conmebol gets. I just found your reasoning of taking some "factors" in consideration to change the record of CAF vs. Conmebol kinda funny... You dind't need to do it to prove CAF has been competitive against South Americans. Argentina, at least, always struggle against africans, and do much better vs. Concacaf, asians or mid tier europeans.
Spot on. The Papa Bouba Diop Project. It's destroying the game but there are too many short-sighted people or people that don't care about the development of the game in influential positions within the African game. The lack of African coaches is a-whole-nother subject. On the 2010 performances, Ghana were well worth their quarter-final place. You can't argue with any of the penalties that were given and they gave a good account of themselves in every game bar the Australia match. Cote d'Ivoire were disappointing, Sven pretty much killed them and I suppose they were slightly unlucky with regards to the order of the matches. Cameroon, Nigeria and Algeria were just plain whack. I'm not having any of it about Cameroon being unlucky. They have a shambles of an FA and are a shambles of a team. I have no sympathy for them, they are useless. The perfect example of how not to run a national team. There's a reason why they haven't qualified for the Nations Cup twice in a row.
First off, that wasn't me. Second, that post came in response to someone questioning Africa's history in the competition, and apparently believed that it was legitimate to nominally compare CAF's WC berths to CONMEBOL. So don't take it up with me. Maroonaviator4 is the one who began to make a direct correlation between CAF and CONMEBOL using results to prove allocation in absolute rather than proportionate terms, take it up with him. My response to him was that his argument was irrelevant since CONMEBOL's allocation was well rewarded considering the size of the confederation. Personally I think that it's poor form to put that type of comparison on the table considering CONMEBOL's relatively long history in the sport relative to CAF. It's not a comparison that I personally care for. It's not relevant in context to what we're discussing for one. Secondly there are better correlations with the other confederations that could be discussed. I will say this as far as allocation goes. I would be fine if they arranged some sort of playoff between CAF, AFC, OFC, and CONCACAF and allowed CONMEBOL to keep their 5th spot on a permanent basis despite the fact that CONMEBOL is so small. Why? Because it would force CAF to tier their qualifiers and possibly lead to a final round-robin qualifier instead of the current group qualifiers. Second it would end the second-guessing and allow the next tier confederations to be properly assessed. No more questions as to who deserves to send how many. I'm confident that Africa's 5th qualifier would do well against CONCACAF or AFC's 4th. With that said, I don't think that any of those three have demonstrably shown that they deserve it any more than CAF.
they need to impove there finishing as a continent i watched most of the matches at the recent Cup Of Nations and that was really the only glaring weakness to me is just the absolute brutal finishing by almost all the teams they certainly have good enough work rate from midfielders and defenses are solid enough, but the lack of an end product and maybe a little lack of creative players holds them back
Looking at the groups, I think that Nigeria have the best chance of getting to the 2nd round. Even though I think Ghana are better than Nigeria, their group is much tougher.
All of the African sides got relatively moderate draws except for Ghana who is the best African side who has twice proven capable of qualifying from a group of death. ALL 5 teams have a chance to advance. The draw really couldn't have been any better for African sides tbh.
Woah woah woah woah woah... Cote d'Ivoire, understandable. Nigeria, debatable. But Cameroon?? Cameroon are straight garbage. Ghana have a better team and better individuals than Cameroon. With regards to why African teams fail - things like organisational/administration issues are the fault of the FAs themselves. It's nobody else's fault. A successful national team takes good, committed players and a professional governing body, as well as a decent coach. If FECAFOOT officials are corrupt or incompetent, then it's nobody else's fault but theirs. All the above reasons are just excuses, yes they had an effect on the teams but they were all self-inflicted. One of my bug bears about some fans is that they seem all too willing to accept corruption and incompetence over a lack of talent. As if it's ok to be incompetent, or less shameful than having less talented players. I'd much rather have a group of average player with a well run, honest, competent and professional national governing body. African teams are lacking in talent anyway. Let's get real. Having said that, African teams and players are criminally underrated on this board by non-Africans (mainly due to ignorance I suppose).
Disagree strongly here. I'd like to have swapped Ghana with Algeria or Cameroon who are both garbage imo and will definitely not advance simply because they are not good enough. Nigeria and Cote d'Ivoire both have a decent chance if they take their groups seriously. Ghana have a slim chance simply because their group is so tough. Cameroon and Algeria can book their return flights now.
Sure they are self-inflicted. But this situations did occur. And it really hampers African chances in such a competitive event. As for the groups: Both you and vancity eagle are exaggerating. Naturally the group draw isn't perfect, especially for Ghana. Nigeria and Algeria can't complained, but Cote d'Ivoire and Cameroon could have gotten easier draws. Oh! And Cameroon isn't garbage. Enough said that Cameroon has the most players of all African countries in the playoff phase of the Champions League. That must count for something.
Mathematically, all things being equal, each team has a 50/5o chance to advance from its group. But obviously all things aren't equal, so what are the real odds for each of the African teams in their respective groups? This is how I see it. Nigeria: 40% (The first game against Iran is critical and will decide this group, since Argentina's place is secure. If Nigeria win that match, I am almost sure they will qualify; if they don't, they probably will not. I certainly am hoping they won't, but its important to note that I see this group a fight between 3 teams for the 2nd place with Argentina pretty much guaranteed to move to the next round. If those 3 teams were equal, their respective mathematical chances would be 33.3%, which means that by giving Nigeria a 40% chance, I see Nigeria a bit more equal than the other 2) Ghana: 30% (The CAF team with the best record in the past 2 World Cups will have to fight it out with Portugal and the US for 2nd place in this group, with Germany taking the first spot. That then drops the mathematical odds, if all of them were equal, to 33.3%. As they aren't all exactly equal, the best I can give Ghana is a 30% chance) Cameroon: 20% (If you take Brazil place as a given, you are then left with Cameroon fighting with Croatia and Mexico for the other spot in this group. Cameroon is not hopeless; Croatia and Mexico aren't all that great. But Cameroon starts with lower odds than they do and I rate its chances at around 20%) Algeria: 20% (In any other group, Algeria's chances would be less than 20%. But here there is no one team that is almost certain to grab one of the spots and you have a fight between 4 teams for 2 spots. Among these 4, Belgium, Russia and South Korea will have better odds than Algeria, but none of our assured of anything against anyone) _____________ When its all said and done, I expect CAF to continue with its tradition of having only 1 team qualify to the Round of 16. I hope that team is not Nigeria, even if their odds are better than the rest.
Ivory coast and Nigeria should make the round of 16. Ghana would if they were switched with anyother african team, and I wouldnt count them out completely. Theyve proven they can beat Americans and Portugal isnt perfect, but if i had to put money on it I'd say only IC and Nigeria make it through, with Ghana coming 3rd to Portugal. Algeria simply arent good enough, and even though Cameroon has the great players they (regardless of the Tunisia result) simply havent proven enough to take them seriously
I forgot all about Ivory Coast! I give them a good chance. On my analysis, around a 40% chance. P.S. No African team has even a 50/50 chance in my book., even if past history (and their mathematical odds combined) suggests that at least one of them will go through.
It really doesn't. Talent-wise, Ghana absolutely destroys Cameroon. Dede Ayew, Jordan Ayew, Asamoah, KPB, Atsu, Opare, Boye, Gyan, Waris etc etc. A past it Eto'o and perhaps Assou-Ekotto & N'Koulou are the only Cameroon players that would have a chance of getting into the Ghana XI. I do like Makoun and Emana (he wasn't involved in the playoffs) but Ghana has better midfielders at its disposal. Oh snap, I'll give you Itandje aswell. But still, in a squad of 23 you'd be looking at 6 Cameroonians max. Cameroon are no match for Ghana, in fact I wanted Ghana to draw Cameroon in the playoffs. We'd have beaten them silly and got revenge for 2008.
Jordan Ayew? Sorry, but he comes out pale in comparison with Jean Marie Dongou or Fabrice Olinga. Strikerwise Cameroon is better than Ghana, who may have a lot of up-and-coming talent, but I would take Vincent Aboubakar and Eric Choupo-Moting over every Ghanaian striker other than Asamoah Gyan. Ghana has much better wings and in general a stronger midfield, but Alex Song, Joel Matip, Stephane Mbia would all fight for 1 starting slot (ahead of Sulley Muntari or Mohamed Rabiu in DM) and would likely feature on the bench. As for the backline it would be entirely Cameroonian with maybe only Opare and Mensah with a shout. If I made a starting XI out of both teams this would be it: ----------------------Itandje-------------------- ----------Chedjou--------------Nkoulou------ Mbia----------------------------Assou-Ekotto -------------------------------------------------- -----------Song----------------Essien--------- Ayew---------------------------------Asamoah -----------------Eto'o--------------------------- -----------------------Gyan--------------------- Possible changes: Opare for Mbia, Mensah for Chedjou, Matip for Song, Boateng for Eto'o. The reason that Ghana is vastly better than Cameroon isn't because they have better players, but because they have a better team, with vastly superior teamplay and set tactics.
With you odds (however arbitrary they may be) you should have 1,5 African teams - ergo 1 or 2 - going to the second round.
Ghana has a better everything. A better FA, a better coach, better players, better team spirit, better teamplay, better tactics, better everything. My combined XI: ----------------Itandje--------------------- Opare----Boye---N'koulou---Assou-Ekotto --------------Asamoah--Wakaso----------- Atsu--------------Boateng----------Ayew -----------------Eto'o------------------------- But that's just me.
I agree on all of the above apart from better players. But having better players isn't what it's cracked up to be. I would argue that in 2010 Ghana had the weakest line-up of all African nations save South Africa and Algeria, but looks what they managed to achieve?
I said at least 1 team from CAF will advance, which allows for the possibility of 2 since I doubt 0.5 will advance! Of course, since one of the CAF teams that has the best chance to advance is Nigeria, and they are in Iran's group, I am not going to give them the benefit of the doubt. Especially since past history suggests only 1 CAF team will go through at the end. My odds are definitely arbitrary of sorts. No better than the odds you get from anyone else.
I think you're doing the Black stars a massive disservice there, but I suppose we simply have to agree to disagree.
Whichever team plays the best defense and is organized will go through. I hope multiple teams show up this time around since last cycle they failed to live up to expectations (except Ghana).
but it is the same case as nigeria, no? the fact that you refused to comment further regarding nigeria proves that you believe the same.