Why SKC should win the Supporters Shield

Target revised to 10 points out of the last 6 games, through Sep-16.

 

This thread can pretty much be closed, barring a completely unexpected collapse by the Quakes.

 

Our inability to score more than one goal per game might also be a factor.

 

Rather than the SS, hanging on to 1st-place in the East would be the top priority now...

 

KansasCity.com predicting NYRB winning the Eastern Conference, interesting...

MLS Eastern Conference chase: A closer look

 

I don't really understand why that's interesting. Most people looking at the schedule the way it breaks down would see New York as the favorite in the East even though they're currently in third.

 

With K.C. gaining 3 big points and S.J. dropping 2 today, the SS race is alive again...

 

The quest to set new club records, through Sep-19:

1. Highest points total (57, set in 2000): Currently at 54, need 4 more points from the 5 remaining games.​

2. Highest PPG (1.781, set in 2000): To reach 61+ points over 34 games, need 7 more points.​

3. Most wins (16, set in 2000): Currently at 16, need 1 more win.​

4. Least losses (7, set in 2000): Currently at 7, no new records will be set.​

5. Most goals scored (61, set in 1996): Currently at 37, need 24 more goals!!??​

6. Least goals conceded (29, set in 2000): Currently at 25, can't let in max 3 more.​

7. Best goal difference (+18, set in 2000): Currently at +12, need 6 more clear goals.​

 

I believe that SKC's magic numbers are now as follows:

• 6 for a playoff spot (5 if DCU draws at PHL tonight, 4 if DCU loses)
• 9 for a top-3 finish to avoid the wildcard game (8 if DCU draws or loses)
• 13 for hosting MLS Cup vs. anyone but SJE
• 14 for first place in the Eastern Conference
• 19 for the Supporters' Shield

 

Similar threads for the other clubs on the verge of something special in 2012 season:

• SJ: The quest to set new club records in 2012...
• NYRB: The quest to set new club records in 2012...
• Chicago: The quest to set new club records in 2012...

 

DC's playoff drought (4 years through 2011) is currently second only to the Wooden Spoon FC (5):
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_MLS_club_post-season_droughts#MLS_Cup_Playoffs

MLS Cup Playoffs

Club​

Last appearance
in post-seasonPost-season
drought

Toronto FC​

never 5 seasons

D.C. United​

2007 4 seasons

Chivas USA​

2009 2 seasons

New England Revolution​

2009 2 seasons

Chicago Fire​

2009 2 seasons

San Jose Earthquakes​

2010 1 season

Portland Timbers​

never 1 season

Vancouver Whitecaps FC​

never 1 season​

 

There should be no Magic Number for SS, given that SJE is still ahead of them with equal number of games played.

 

It represents the total number of points that SKC has to gain and SJE has to drop in order for SKC to win the Supporters' Shield, assuming that no one else catches the two of them. For example, if SKC wins out (15 points), then SJE has to drop at least 19-15=4 points. That would put SKC at 69 and SJE at 68.

 

Unless we some how make up that monster goals scored difference... Cause we all know that'll happen.

 

Or MLS reveals a new and different tiebreaker rule that the teams supposedly knew about all season.

 

We're also pretty far behind in goal difference, so I'm not sure why you're rolling your eyes.

 

The eye-rolling was for announcing the revised tiebreaker rule mid-season. But hey, maybe they will change it to fewest goals allowed, since defense wins championships . . .

 

I was thinking about this last night... while not nearly as robust or elegant as the magic number, this clarifies my thinking in terms of what we need to do.

Scenarios that allow SKC to win SS:
If SJ wins 4, we're out.
15 pts: If we are: 5-0-0, then SJ needs to NOT win at least 2.
13 pts: If we are: 4-0-1, then SJ needs to lose two -OR- not win 3
12 pts: If we are: 4-1-0, then SJ needs to draw 4 -OR- lose 2 AND draw 1
11 pts: If we are: 3-0-2, then SJ needs to draw 4 -OR- lose two AND draw 2 -OR- lose 3
10 pts: If we are: 3-1-1, then SJ needs to draw 5 -OR- lose 3 -OR- lose 2 AND draw 3
9 pts: If we are: 3-2-0 or 2-0-3, then if SJ gets six points any way, they win.

Bottom line:
If we don't win 4 of the next 5 games, then SJ can go 2-2-1 (or better) and knock us out. And I think it is unlikely that they go worse than 2-2-1. Thus, we gotta win 4 of the next 5 to have a chance.

 

SKC's dwindling hopes for the Supporters' Shield largely hang on what happens in Seattle tonight. Meanwhile, New York's draw at New England and Chicago's win over Columbus make Friday's game at LSP that much bigger. Besides being yet another head-to-head battle for first place in the Eastern Conference, SKC can now clinch a playoff spot with a win.

 

It is always hard to root for Seattle, but it would have been nice if they had at least managed to salvage a draw tonight. Losing kept them from clinching a playoff spot, although three teams in the Western Conference have now punched their post-season tickets, while (obviously) none in the Eastern Conference have done so. San Jose's magic numbers are 4 for first place and 9 for the Supporters' Shield, and look out--LA is suddenly in second place.

 

So at this point, we won't get the Supporters Shield right? Can anyone confirm this?

 

5 points back with 4 to play. So no we're not eliminated yet, but San Jose just won their most difficult game remaining.

 

Thanks for spelling it out for me. Sunday morning hangover -_-

 

Technically even Houston is still in the running for the Shield at this point...