Or we need a guy that is actually a better finisher, finishing more of the chances that we actually create....
how is it working for me? it doesn't change a thing, we should expect 3 points from the expansion side the remaining two times we play them. I never said we should count the points before we have them- Why do people think this thread makes any difference to anything? It doesn't, it is a thread on a subpar forum on a subpar website that not many people read or care about- I am of the opinion that SKC should win the Supporters Shield this season, that hasn't changed and if everytime we drop points you guys want to come to this thread and point out that we dropped points then so be it but I'd say that it says more about you than it does me.
Maximum point potential SEA 92 NYR 91 SKC 91 SJE 90 RSL 89 VAN 87 CHI 87 HOU 85 DCU 84 CLB 84 NER 82 LAG 80 PHI 80 PTL 81 CHV 82 COL 78 MTL 78 DAL 76 TOR 75
Maximum point potential SKC 89 SJE 87 RSL 86 DCU 84 NYR 84 VAN 83 SEA 82 CLB 82 CHI 81 HOU 80 NER 77 COL 76 PTL 76 TOR 76 CHV 75 LAG 74 PHI 74 MTL 72 DAL 67 Dallas is almost eliminated from the SS already (i know it isn't a statistical fact yet, it is way too early for that but....). 67 points is what it took last year to win it and LA had a historic season.
Maximum point potential SJE 82 SKC 81 DCU 78 NYR 77 CHI 76 RSL 75 PHI 74 SEA 73 CLB 73 HOU 73 VAN 72 CHV 71 NER 70 LAG 68 COL 67 PTL 63 DAL 62 TOR 61 MTL 60
Surprised a bit to see Montreal at the bottom. I would have figured TFC had the Wooden Spoon all but wrapped up.
Montreal has already played a bunch of games. 76 points is the cutoff for the playoffs right now in the east 73 in the west 72 being the Wild Card play in games
Funny that morry hasn't visited the forum since may 18 after posting this pretty much anywhere and everywhere after our hot start.
Maximum point potential SJE 77 RSL 75 DCU 75 NYR 74 SKC 73 SEA 73 CLB 73 HOU 73 CHI 71 PHI 68 CHV 68 VAN 67 LAG 66 NER 62 TOR 58 COL 58 PTL 58 MTL 57 DAL 55
I honestly feel that we should be vying for the SS... and it's not like we're totally out of that hunt or anything either... but I guess I'd just say that I feel like we have had more games where we could say "we should've gotten more from that" (@Portland, @chicago, @Colorado, Columbus at home... to an extent Chicago at home or even @houston) than we can say "we were lucky to get those points" (@Chivas, possibly @DC, possibly @Montreal). Not saying we deserve to take credit for points we didn't actually earn, but more just looking at the fact that we've probably played better than our point total indicates right now... so I don't think that the SS was (or even is) out of our potential with this team. As far as the premise of this thread goes, the East turned out to be a lot stronger than people thought they'd be, with us, NY, DC, Chicago and Houston being quality sides and even Philly is much better than their Nowak-suppressed point total right now would indicate. We did capitalize on our early schedule and the CCL point is just now coming into play (though doesn't apply to the leaders right now, NY and SJ). The sad point, and probably the only reason we aren't up there with SJ right now, is our home form. ---- So while I totally agree that "should win the SS" was a gross overstatement, I have always considered that we could win it and should be in the hunt for it.
I would still say we have still dropped more points by making incredibly stupid mistakes than actually being outplayed. (Columbus, @Portland, Joseph's red at Houston etc) We have a team that should be capable of a SS run, but to call it in the first month of the season? Yikes. We have to face the music. We are barely hanging onto a playoff spot at this point considering the next three teams below us all have games in hand and we are dropping points all over the place.
If we lose out on it, it will probably be by a game or two unless we have a collosal collapse or a team just goes on a tear and runs away from everyone else which could happen. If we do lose it like that, we are going to look back on a few games and remember them for a very long time.
9 teams with 6 points this far into the season is not the norm. The fact remains though that SJ and RSL are currently in the drivers seat, with SJ having the easier schedule. If anybody is going to make a run at the SS it will be due to those two losing pace.
With the recent revelations regarding tiebreakers for the MLS playoffs, it made me wonder what the tiebreakers are for the Supporters' Shield. Does it follow the official MLS tiebreaker for the given year, or is it different? I'm not sure I even know who the governing body of the SS is. Can someone shed some light on this? EDIT: Never mind, assuming Wikipedia is correct. EDIT2: The Wikipedia article mentions that "these are standard MLS regulations for breaking ties in point totals." So, that makes me wonder if the SS inherently will stay in lock-step with MLS with respect to tiebreakers. Question reinstated. Comments please.
I'd expect it to be the same as the rest of the league's tiebreakers cause that's all it is, is a tie for first place.
According to this, we need to win 7 of the remaining 10 to have at least a 50% chance of winning the supporters shield. (It says 8 of 11 - and we just took care of DCU). But, the odds might now be worse since SJ just beat Seattle. Regardless, given San Jose's lead, form, and remaining schedule, we'll have to be lights-0ut to overtake them, IMHO.
According to my current ELO projections, a team needs at least 49 points to make the playoffs this year. Which means that the record for most points won and still missing the playoffs (a record held by the 2005 Kansas City Wizards with 45 points) is in jeopardy this year. With 10 games left, 10th play Los Angeles are sitting on 33 points.