why not Gomez?

Discussion in 'USA Men: News & Analysis' started by bct81, Oct 17, 2011.

  1. bct81

    bct81 Member

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    part of this reposted from a YA Gameday element and some part added about Herc Gomez's scoring rate :

    my premise is based on statistics why is he not always the first sub off the bench for the US MNT - particularly if we have not scored.

    have at it ..

    -------------------------------------------------------

    if I play Moneyball here ..

    1 goal every other game he shows up in ....
    as a sub 176 minutes /5 goals or 35 minutes per goal ... that is 2011 with the Tecos ....
    what about 2010-2011 with all of his clubs (Puebla, Pachuca, Estudiantes) .... 21 goals in 55 appearances ....

    if I assume

    15 minutes per appearance - 40 minutes per goal
    20 minutes per appearance - 52 minutes per goal
    30 minutes per appearance - 78 minutes per goal
    45 minutes per appearance - 117 minutes per goal

    even Dempsey in 2010-2011 had 12 goals in 37 appearances - if I assume he averages 75 minutes an outing over the entire EPL season that is a goal every 231 minutes.

    so far this year Altidore is 3 for 7 - if I assume 60 minutes per appearance that is 140 minutes per goal ...
    Jozy's best year with Red Bulls was 2007 or 9 goals in 22 appearances ... if I assume 45 minutes per appearance that year that is 110 minutes per goal ..

    how about Donovan over 2 years (2010 and 2011) with club - 18 goals in 39 appearances ... he is a workhorse so if I assume 80 minutes per appearance - that is 173 minutes per goal ...

    bottom line - if I play statistics Gomez needs to be a sub as much as possible and the odds are that every other or third game he puts the ball in the back of the net. He needs to be the first sub off the bench every time .... purely based on statistics.

    I really don't care about the age as much the goal scoring percentage and as a sub perhaps his career has been extended .. because his goal scoring is not slowing down (yet).

    in credit to another posting: http://www.socceroverthere.com/?p=7008

    so what about for the USMNT ...

    all time2 goals in 8 matches .. ONLY 8 CAPS?

    I added it up ... a total of 197 minutes he has played for the USMNT since 2007 and he has scored 2 goals (1 goal per 100 minutes at the international level) ....

    he appeared twice (Argentina and Colombia) at 2007 Copa America for 66 minutes total - no goals - aged 24 which is daunting in South America. Those were his first matches with the USMNT.

    he appeared twice in WC 2010 run up tour and scored twice in 53 minutes (age 27) against the Czech Republic and Australia.

    he appeared three times in South Africa for 56 minutes and scored no goals .... in 45 minutes against Algeria he got off 4 shots and 2 on goal - Altidore was on the receiving end of 6 fouls but only got off one shot that entire game.

    He played 23 minutes against Brazil in Aug 2011 and did not score.

    so internationally 1 goal per 100 minutes all time ... he is 28 years old ... he is smack in his prime.

    folks he simply scores at a higher rate than Altidore, Buddle, Johnson etc. all the time and everywhere - so why in the heck is not ahead of them in the pecking order or the first sub off the bench .. makes no sense to me (statistically speaking) unless we just want a bigger body (Altidore, Buddle, Agudelo) at that position .. but we are not producing goals reliably so why try statistics for once?


  2. schrutebuck

    schrutebuck Member+

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    Just like Omar Gonzalez, he's not "Latin" enough.
  3. AutoPenalti

    AutoPenalti BigSoccer Supporter

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    Looks like someone did their homework, I wouldn't mind calling Gomez up at least, I like that he isn't latino enough, oh wait..
  4. vaquero28

    vaquero28 Member

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    he should be called up. The worst that can happen is he does not score...what would be the difference? He may not be as big and "powerful" as JA but maybe he can at least put it on frame..as if we need a big clutzy running back?


  5. bct81

    bct81 Member

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    statistics does not care about ethnicity. :D

    all that we want is the ball in the back of the net and he seems to do it at a higher rate than most anyone else in the pool.

    let's see Klose wants to play in 2014 and we worry about Gomez who is 28?
  6. IndividualEleven

    IndividualEleven Member+

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    Should be noted he played in midfield at the Copa if one is thinking his numbers as a striker.
  7. bct81

    bct81 Member

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    then that is 2 in 131 (65 minutes per goal) .. yikes - that is scary (good).

    think of that - a 24 midfielder playing for the USMNT for the first time against Argentina and Colombia.

    and then he had the injury later that same year in training for the Rapids.
  8. irish56

    irish56 Member

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    about two months ago everybody were convinced that 30 was too old for the WC. I just don't get it. I have watched last five WCs and that has never been the case.
  9. vaquero28

    vaquero28 Member

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    Depends on the individual, does it not, my most successful season was at 32, that was nearly 40 years ago..
  10. Real Corona

    Real Corona Moderator Staff Member

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    Gomez probably hasn't received a call up because he doesn't really fit in the formation that Klinsmann has put out there. Gomez is a player who plays best with a partner in the top. So he'd be competing for Dempsey's position for his best spot, which we know isn't happening. He isn't really a target striker, unlike Buddle, who I think is not nearly as good as Gomez, so he can't really take Altidore's role. And he is not really a winger, (then again neither is Danny Williams, but.....) so he can't really be moved out wide at least in the lineup that we have been showing so far under Klinsmann.
  11. vaquero28

    vaquero28 Member

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    I have a very strong feeling that we will soon see a 2 striker system since as is apparent to everyone, a single target man is not working with those on board. secondly, these two strikers will also be our first line of defense when balls are lost in the final third, something that a single cannot pull off consistently as is patently evident.
  12. irish56

    irish56 Member

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    We heard that about a few players. Wasn't JK suppose to find the American style? I mean, that is what he said when he was introduced. Hard to say he is trying to find the American style when so many players doesn't fit his.

    I'm just saying, not really claiming this to be true. But a thought.
  13. bct81

    bct81 Member

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    maybe he replaces Donovan then ... since 2007 he scores at a higher rate per minute than most anyone out there .... yes I know the gasps that might cause ... but if we are truly interested in putting the ball in the back of the net then we need to put the folks out there that have a track record of doing so regularly? Perhaps what you are getting at then is the need to adjust the formation to the players.

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/football/2010/jun/25/world-cup-2010-jurgen-klinsmann

    if we will play with the target player who is our Klose?

    Klose is 6 feet (33 years old)

    Gomez is 5'10" (29 years old)

    Altidore is 6'1" ()

    Klose scored 62 goals in 112 appearances for the German NT. Insane. He is 33 and has scored 4 goals in 6 matches for Lazio this year.
  14. Real Corona

    Real Corona Moderator Staff Member

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    tough to say. If you think about the players we have, our strongest depth is in the middle of the field. So if you want to maximize your talent, maybe you want as many on the field as possible? Certainly striker is our weakest link. All I know is that as long as Klinsmann keeps putting out the same formation he's been using, it doesn't really leave a spot for Gomez.
  15. Maximum Optimal

    Maximum Optimal Member

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    Based on club scoring rates, the Gomez-Wondolowski combination should be starting for the Nats.

    But I can tell from just watching them that they would not make much of a dent against a quality international defense. I know we have not been scoring much of late with Altidore and Agudelo out there. But we have before and imo it is only a matter of time before the goals start coming. Scoring is a streaky contagious kind of thing. Like hitting in baseball. The guys might be pressing a little right now, but I'm happy to see Altidore and Agudelo out there rather than Gomez and Wondo.
  16. bct81

    bct81 Member

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    My gut tells that me that you are spot on.

    But the #'s don't support that.

    If MLS or FMF or EPL or otherwise American strikers are consistently (based on minutes) scoring when they are on the pitch then they should be playing ... it is all about results.

    Agudelo has a brief splash but has not scored much since.

    Jozy is working harder - no doubt about that - and becoming more professional - but he has not scored consistently over his career ....

    all that matters is the ball in the back of the net -

    2 for 5 .. that is where we are today with JK (so far)

    maybe Gomez / Wondo should be the two strikers for the USMNT.

    I really don't care if the goal looks pretty or not.

    Remember Al Davis:

    "Just win baby"

    "We don't take what the defense gives us; we take whatever the hell we want.

    "You don't adjust, you just dominate."
  17. vaquero28

    vaquero28 Member

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    I agree with that, however that is not how we have traditionally approached the game with the bunker/counter system We took what a defense gave us and then attacked, not overly successfully.
    It should be, Attack as a team and defend as a team, that is why conditioning is so hyper-important.
  18. Real Corona

    Real Corona Moderator Staff Member

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    Isn't he the guy whose team was an absolute embarrassment most of the time?
  19. Skevin

    Skevin Member+

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    Gomez and Wondolowski are the same exact type of player and both are doing pretty well right now. We really shouldn't be using Agudelo considering he isn't starting for a midtable MLS club and he isn't really scoring goals. Jurgen needs to have someone who can come off the bench and score so take your pick, Wondo or Gomez. Both are relatively the small age and haven't played many games for USA. Gomez has scored a couple more goals for the national team and is playing in a better league but isn't considered a starter. Wondolowski again is one of the top scorers in the MLS but he has been mediocre for the national team. There really isn't a wrong answer between the two. The only wrong thing to do is exclude both but Jurgen has a habit of doing the wrong thing.
  20. Maximum Optimal

    Maximum Optimal Member

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    It is all about results. Wondo got some PT in the Gold Cup and flopped, missing at least one memorably good opportunity. Gomez has gotten some PT with the Nats too. I believe both have lower scoring rates with the Nats than Altidore, Agudelo and Buddle.

    Given the fact that there are good a priori reasons not to expect them to be as successful as the forwards who have been getting callups, I'd say their lack of output in the opportunities they have been given is sufficient to keep them on the outside for now.

    If we are looking to invest in new strikers, Sapong is one I'd bring up. I think he has the combination of size, strength, athleticism, soccer intelligence and ball skills needed to have a good opportunity to translate his success in MLS to the international level.

    I think a good analogy is Brek Shea versus Brad Davis. Brad Davis is a very very fine MLS player. But he has certain limitations which make it unlikely that he will succeed as an international player. I'm ok with giving him some opportunities with the Nats, but not too many. Shea (even before his recent move with the Nats) was clearly the better prospect and the correct one to invest in.

    Sapong is not as outstanding a prospect as Shea. But we're going to notice a big improvement in his game in 2012 now that he has a year as a pro under his belt. If JK were to bring in a new forward, I'd much rather it be Sapong than Gomez or Wondo.
  21. bct81

    bct81 Member

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    12 goals in 42 caps for Altidore (roughly a goal per 220 minutes at 60 mins per match) .

    2 goals in 8 caps and a goal per 65 minutes as a striker for Gomez.

    Gomez scores more per minute for club and country.

    Sapong has 5 goals in about 2000 mins (1 goal per 400 mins) with his club.

    Davis has 35 goals in 19000 mins (1 goal per 540 mins) for his whole MLS career.

    Obviously the coaches make the call but in terms of numbers the answer is clear.

    And I like Shea and Altidore both. We just need to score more and defend better. Kind of obvious I know.
  22. Stan Collins

    Stan Collins Member+

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    And at any rate, I don't think he's attached to a particular formation up front. It seems to me that the two things he feels important are defenders who play the ball out of the back, and a creative presence in the center of the pitch just behind the forward(s) (and a deeper-lying mid who supports that role).

    I think he'd play with two forwards if he thought that
    a) the two forwards in question were good enough,
    and
    b) the defensive/possession posture is strong enough that we don't give away too much by vacating a more defensive position

    And I'm not sure at all that he's made up his mind on those issues.
  23. vaquero28

    vaquero28 Member

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    You see this is a problem as I see it, not only should strikers score goals, shoot, follow up but also instantly put pressure to retrieve a lost ball so that defenses have time to switch and mark fast break counters, which is why I continue to say a shot should either miss or force a hard save. Even if forwards are not good enough to score they certainly should be good enough to initiate immediate pressure to recover the ball in lieu of falling down and throwing up his hands and scowl at the ref. Just harrasssing even if they do not recover the ball will force hurried passes, making recovery just that much more possible.
    Oh, and I am certain that is already being worked on.
  24. bct81

    bct81 Member

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    by the way - Wondolowski (for club) has 40 goals in 110 appearances since 2005..

    http://www.mlssoccer.com/players/chris-wondolowski

    club minutes total of 6666 - 166 minutes per goal ...

    obviously this year (15 goals) - has been good - but it is still only 172 minutes per goal - a goal every other game if he is playing the whole match.

    and he is 0 for 5 for country ...

    but at club level - the #'s would indicate Wondo is a far better option to score than Sapong and Davis. but not as good as Gomez.
  25. irish56

    irish56 Member

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    For the Nats, Kenny Cooper scores a goal every 113 minutes.

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