Who is going to be the big Surprise in SouthAfrica 2010!!

It becomes obvious if you look at the amount of possible "easy" matches compared to "difficult" ones.

IMO

Pot A:
Easy - Sth Africa
Difficult - Brazil, Spain, England, Italy, Germany, Netherlands#
Normal - France*, Argentina

Pot B (Euro):
Easy - Slovakia, Greece*, Slovenia*
Difficult - Netherlands#, Portugal*, Russia*
Normal - the rest

Pot C (Africa/ CBol):
Easy - Algeria?*,New Zealand#
Difficult - CIV, Chile
Normal - The rest (very high quality "normal" though)

Pot D:
Easy - Nth Korea, New Zealand#
Difficult - Mexico, USA, Australia, Sth Korea
Normal - Costa Rica*, Honduras, Japan

* = if they qualify
# = depending on the Uruguay - Costa Rica match up New Zealand could be in either pot. Also If France doesn't qualify it will (most likely) be Netherlands as a seed.

Before everyone goes on about putting USA and Sth Korea in the same class as The Netherlands, these are meant to be relative to their groups - ie "easy" is the team(s) you would want to get from teat pot, "difficult is the teams you would want to avoid, and Normal is a team somewhere in between.

One obvious thing is that as long as Uruguay qualify over Costa Rica, there is no chance for an "all easy" group as it would have to be a C-Bol team in Sth Africa's group so even Algeria couldn't be their.

These are my opinions of course but I think the general rule stands - much more "groups of death" type than "groups of life"

 

In response to Gold is the Colour I came up with a list of who I would want my team to draw in each pot, even though some teams are not yet qualified for sure I am guessing on a few. Number 1 is the team I would most want to draw.

POT 1 1. RSA 2. FRA 3. GER 4. ITA 5. ARG 6. ENG 7. SPA 8. BRA
POT 2 1. SLO 2. SWI 3. UKR 4. DEN 5. RUS 6. POR 7. SER 8. HOL
POT 3 1. PAR 2. URU 3. NIG 4. EGY 5. CAM 6. CHI 7. GHA 8. CIV
POT 4 1. NKO 2. NEW 3. HON 4. KOR 5. ****** 6. AUS 7. USA 8. MEX


Therefore I think the hardest group possible would be

Brazil Holland Ivory Coast Mexico

and the group of life would be

S Africa Slovakia Paraguay N. Korea

 

lol it appears the 3 letter abbreviation of japan cannot be used on this forum

 

Can't argue too much with that.

I would have Russia higher and I'd swap Sth Korea and Japan at least - not going to get into the who C-Caf/ AFC thing, suffice it to say that the top 2 of each are all pretty even IMO.

Argentina is dicey ATM as well with El Fatso managing the team the could be abject failures, or their class could shine through in spite of Maradona.

 

Argentina is very dicey, but the prospect of Messi and guys like Aguero, Tevez running at your defence is not something I would want, in the same breath their defence looks like absolute crap. As for Russia I predict they will be this WC's Czech Rep. ( a team that was great in the euro's but fail in the WC proper, they did not impress me v Slovenia ) Player for player Japan is better than Korea, maybe not as a team however.

 

I often disagree with you, but this time I'm in total agreement, I think the traditional powers will struggle again, like in '02 for a variety of reasons. I think the European squads will struggle simply because they often do in tournaments outside of Europe (and w/some of their more traditional strong sides like Croatia, and Sweden not making it, maybe Russia, and maybe Portugal too), and I also think Brazil and Argentina could struggle. Brazil because the coaching is subpar, and I think they lack some leadership, and a bit of an identity, Argentina because their coach is an incompetent idiot and they're playing horrid under him.

I also think this is the year, FINALLY, when CAF will deliver on their promise. Pre-draw anyway. Will reevaluate after draw. But based on overall strength, I'd project a round of 16 featuring:

AFC:

None or Australia

CAF:

Ivory Coast
Ghana
Cameroon

Conmebol:
Brazil
Chile
Paraguay
Argentina-if they fire Maradona

Concacaf:
Mexico

No USA (Incompetent coach, horrific injury to Davies really derailed the teams overall design and approach, crippled w/o him unless Altidore grows up real real fast)

Honduras-a side that could surprise if they ended up in S. Africa's likely cake group.

UEFA:

Serbia
Denmark
Germany
Spain
England
Italy
Holland
France

 

CONMEBOL always send their best 4 or 5. Their qualifying format ensures that.

Agree about Messi and Aguero. But Tevez is merely average. I wouldn't even use him if I were Madadona.

 

I have some misgivings with respect to Paraguay.

They are a team that plays much better within their confederation, but when they play outside they tend to underperform. I think Colombia does better outside CONMEBOL, even if in reality they are a weaker team. Paraguay gets scared, and just defends.

In the last 18 months, Paraguay has lost to Qatar, South Korea, tied the Saudis and barely defeated Oman 1-0 (always as visitors or on neutral ground).

Colombia comes from defeating Mexico, El Salvador, Haiti (well...), Nigeria, and losing to France by one goal. To be fair, Paraguay tied France 0-0 (both games in Paris) and Colombia played Haiti and Nigeria at home (Paraguay didn`t play any game at home).

Otherwise, I know Paraguay has a better history in the World Cups and they are indeed the better team, but I wish they showed more of the grit the Colombians can show at times. If they did, and didn`t seem to get star-struck when facing the "big teams," they could go far.

After all, they have been a top CONMEBOL team for a while. They cannot afford to go aorund losing to the likes of Qatar, not even in a friendly, not even as a joke.

When I watched Colombia play Germany or England, I was expecting the surprise, it was obvious the game could go one way or the other. When I watched Paraguay playing France or England, I was thinking, "how long can they keep the 0-0?"

 

lol

 

I'm pretty curious to see paraguay myself, as Holland will play them on wednesday. It's a nice opportunity to test a CONMEBOL team that qualified with just one point less than Brazil. It's a strange thing they can't bring their A game outside their own continent. I expect them to be pretty loaded after losing 2-0 against Qatar. I mean there hundreds of thousands fans at home that have seen that same game and are pretty pissed about it I would think. Friendly's in general don't add very much, but for Paraguay it can be a learning experience to handle yourself on srange territory. Hope to see that on the pitch wednesday.

 

I would, though I'm alarmed at some of the quotes that have come out from him recently. He's consistently brought his a game when under immense pressure (West Ham, and Copa '04 really pop into mind). I may be biased, as I love his game, but I really believe Tevez is a huge asset. He may not be the talent Messi is, or what Aguero can be, but Tevez has more fight than either of them in my view. At least that's what I thought until I saw the recent quotes, preceeding the quotes, I'd argue that he was a must bring, and a legit starting option for Argentina. They just need a new coach, badly, to reinstill confidence and some coherent plan and approach. They were sybil out there, during qualifying. Totally inconsistent, and just completely bizarre to watch.

 

Totally fair. Paraguay doesn't seem to have the same tenacity they had a decade ago (around '97-'03 when they had a more fiery disposition). We'll see though. In my mind, Paraguay's performance is totally contingent on the draw, they are not a side that will be fine no matter what draw they get. If they get a draw with say, Ivory Coast, Italy and Mexico, they could go home with 0 points, easy.

That's really the interesting thing. Any group with really Ivory Coast, Ghana, or Cameroon in it is a potential group of death, potentially add Nigeria if they'd stop playing schizophrenic soccer, add the US if the coach were different and Charlie Davies wasn't nearly killed in a car wreck a month ago, Mexico can be added to that list as well, I'm pretty well convinced that Chile could be too.

I don't know if there's ever been a time where there was more potential for absolutely horrific (but entertaining) powerhouse groups in the world cup. This could potentially be a truly immensely entertaining tournament.

After all there just aren't many weak sisters around. Last time, Concacaf dragged two weak sisters in in Costa Rica (not nearly their '01-'02 selves), and T&T (at best never better than fifth or sixth best in concacaf). The AFC brought in the annual pathetic side in S. Arabia, and Iran ended up being nowhere near as impressive as their fans expected. CAF left 2 or 3 of their best sides at home, dragging annual also rans Tunisia, and new lambs to the slaughter Togo and Angola (both of whom I'd argue were not nearly as bad as presented in the former case, and as expected in the latter). UEFA brought Poland, and Serbia, Poland was never good enough, and Serbia suddenly forgot how to play after dominating a tough group in qualifying. Conmebol admittedly sent no dogs. But still, that's at least 8 dogs, and then you add factors in like the US imploding. Paraguay playing terrible, Croatia playing awful etc and you have what was a terribly inconsistent cup.

This time round, it appears Africa's qualifyers will be twice as strong as last time, and generally the sides considered the best 4, are all going (Ivory Coast, Ghana, Cameroon and Nigeria) Asia is only bringing one potential dog, and N. Korea actually played some excellent defensive soccer in qualifying (unlucky and if i recall correctly, were hosed in not beating S. Korea, at S. Korea). Concacaf isn't really sending a dog. Sure Honduras is no world beater, but a lot of concacaf backers including me, view Honduras as the team most capable of pulling an upset or at least a quality result, against elite teams at a cup after Mexico and the US. UEFA appears likely to only send one team little is expected of (Slovakia) though perhaps 2 (Ukraine or Greece). And Conmebol is certainly sending their best 5 if Uruguay finishes Costa Rica off, as expected on wednesday. So really, the only definitive, expected to be dogs sides this time around would probably be the hosts, N. Korea, maybe Japan, Honduras (thought a more capable concacaf side than Costa Rica or T&T in '06), Slovakia and maybe one other UEFA side.

Makes for a very interesting cup.

Particularly when you realize the potential with sides like Ivory Coast, Ghana, Cameroon, Nigeria, Mexico, USA, Chile, Paraguay, Uruguay, Australia, S. Korea, Denmark, potentially Holland or Portugal and maybe Russia. That's a real big pile up of quality teams, all of which could/and will be unseeded. Basically, it's not hard to imagine 4 groups that in the past might be considered groups of death. Cannot wait for the draw.

 

I'm not liking the Asian teams here whatsoever...

North Korea is an extremely weak side that got in because bunker ball can be used with some success against Asian sides. This is not going to be the case against the sides they come up against in South Africa.

Australia were solid yet unspectacular in qualifying... I think most Socceroo fans will tell you that they have their doubts about Pim Verbeek's brand of football. Despite a good showing last time around I think their a steep learning curve for a country featuring in only their third World Cup. They remind me of the 2006 US side that coasted through qualifying and got served a hard dose of reality when they landed in a group with the Czech Republic, Italy, and Ghana.

Japan and South Korea have become Asian staples in World Cup competition. I don't think they'll be easy for any side to contend with. If I had to pick a team to advance from Asia I would pick South Korea based on the fact that they qualified from their group with two matches to play and they were also in the tougher of the two AFC Qualifying groups.

I think Africa is going to be in a position to send at least 3 of the 6 teams to the next round. I just have a feeling that one of those teams is going to be a surprise semi-finalist. I fancy the Serbs to be the surprise of the tournament as long as they avoid the group of death.

 

What did you make of the 0-0 draw between South Africa and Japan this past weekend?

I see it as a turn of events for the hosts, ending their very very long losing streak...I hope i'm right....They are playing Jamaica tonight....

 

I'd say UEFA are sending a pretty good representation this time around. Only if Slovenia or Bosnia achieve surprising results in the playoffs will there be really weak sides coming from UEFA.

 

I would rate Slovakia at the same level as Bosnia and Slovenia though. But certainly Bosnia wouldn't be a push over even if they do qualify.

Despite some serious scares, it appears that every confederation is sending pretty close to their best.

but Paraguay still reached the second-round 2 world cups in-a-row (1998,2002). They have much more potential to do some damage in South Africa than Colombia would had they qualified.

 

Paraguay has been ruined by excessively conservative coaching the last two World Cups.

In 2002 they beat out Slovenia (at the last second) and South Africa to get to the next round. Big deal.

1998 was a team of heroes and warriors--but all on defense.

They need to play like a team that has Haedo Valdez, Roque Santa Cruz and Salvador Cabanas, not like scared bunny rabbits.

If they attack, they will surprise.

 

this does look like it will be one of the most competative WC's in recent history, there will be many tough groups. With regards to the discussion on Paraguay, they do strike me as a team that does well within their confederation but not so well outside of it, and yes they do play very defensive in all the WC's I've seen them in. There are many examples of teams who do very well in their confederation but can't get it done internationally. In CAF we have a team like Tunisia who have a very good record within Africa but suck balls when they play teams from other confederations. They almost beat out Nigeria, and I would say they are actually better at getting results against minnows in CAF than Nigeria is, but against a euro team Nigeria is ten times more effective. Same could be said for teams like Poland and Greece who could get results in uefa but really lack on the world stage.

 

I pretty much agree on all points. The main reason I'm happy w/Asia is that they are sending 3 sides that can be expected to show up and not be hopeless. Australia will fight, S. Korea is hard to contend with, Japan always plays competent, sometimes good soccer. N. Korea is an unknown quantity. None of the teams that traditionally get thoroughly stomped are coming. That's good to me.

Agreed on Africa. I have a distinct feeling that 3 sides, and maybe 4 make it to the knockout round, pending the draw. If Ivory Coast, or Ghana or Cameroon can pull a relatively friendly group, and be paired with groups w/o a best of the best type seed, any of the three could make a run to the semi's, even a finals run is possible in Ivory Coast's case. I cannot project Nigeria, and Cameroon is hard to project too, they continued to play very inconsistent ball this cycle, as they did last, only Ghana, and Ivory Coast seemed to bring their a games in both this cycle and the '05 cycle.

 

My current Power Table:

Code:

UEFA           CONMEBOL     CONCACAF      CAF           AFC        OFC
Spa./Ger.      Brazil
Eng./Neth.
Ita./Fra.      Chile
Denmark        Argentina                  Iv. Coast
Serbia                      Mexico        Ghana
Port./Russ.    Paraguay     USA                         S. Korea
Swit./Slova.   Uruguay                                    
Slovenia                    Honduras                    Australia
Ukra./Bos.                  C. Rica       Camer./Niger.
Ireland                                   Egy./Alg.        
Greece                                                  Japan
                                          S. Africa     N. Korea
                                                                   N. Zealand

This is considering inter-confed play. Within their own confed., some teams overperform (Paraguay, USA, Egypt, Japan, Greece, Slovakia). On the other hand, some underperform (Argentina, Uruguay, Algeria, Slovenia, Ukraine).

Some of those teams are on the upswing: France, Argentina, Ghana, South Korea, Mexico), while some I expect to improve for the WC finals (Italy, Australia).

The only "weak" teams are New Zealand, North Korea and South Africa. Japan is on the downswing, and it's been a while that they are not playing to their potential.

The real "contenders on paper" are the Group of Five: Brazil, Spain, Germany, Netherlands, England. They all are playing beautiful football. I expect, though, for England, Spain and Netherlands to decrease in power and the WC goes on, and Italy to grow, so IMO the three "true contenders" are Brazil, Italy and Germany (a.k.a. The Usual Suspects).

France and Argentina are starting to come out of their funk. Argentina is playing better, but still has ways to go. They can still demand a lot from Spain, and in Madrid. A good sign. France is coming back in form and is already playing top level football at moments. These two are teams that, if they make it out of group, can become formidable --both are stronger in the one-on-one.

 

Here are the factors that I think make this the most competitive World Cup ever:

1. Instead of Australia OR a fifth CONMEBOL team, you will have Australia AND Uruguay.

2. Russia under Guus Hiddink, if they make it. Probably the best tournament master on the planet.

3. Ghana-Nigeria-Ivory Coast-Cameroon. Yes, ALL of them. On their home continent.

4. A truly dangerous England team with a great coach. When's the last time we've been able to say that?

5. The fact that the Cup is being held outside of Europe or South America. No home cooking for the favorites.

6. A confident Spain with a Euro 2008 title under its belt, not the self-doubters of old.

 

I will say Ghana and if they don't mess around with prostitutes and can actually qualify, I will add Egypt.

Ghana have solved their striker problem, they have a dangerous forward now. Their back line still needs work. They lack organization at the back. If they solve this by playing like their under 21 team, they are unbeatable. The midfield is very strong and is at the same level as Spain. If you think this is an exaggeration you are in for a surprise.

Egypt are actually a tremendous team and are hard to beat in Africa but this last summer they got done by USA as they were fatigued, turned out they had night visitors, Reason why I don't want to live in Arabic countries, if you ask me. Cross fingers, hope Egypt qualify, Algeria are not a good team.

 

Please remove Nigeria from this list and add Egypt (if they qualify). Nigeria are and will always be a disappointment.

 

I'll add Egypt....if they qualify.

Nigeria beat Spain in 1998 and at least got to the Round of 16.