Review: Weekly MLS Power Rankings.

Discussion in 'MLS: News & Analysis' started by Fiosfan, Mar 14, 2012.

  1. Fiosfan Member+

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  2. Fiosfan Member+

    Member Since:
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  3. Fiosfan Member+

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  4. JasonMa Member+

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  5. Jough Member

    Member Since:
    Jul 30, 2007
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    Kansas City
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    Sporting Kansas City
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    United States
    Yay MLS is back! My spreadsheet was getting dusty. I managed to crank out rankings for the last three weeks. I feel like it's gonna take another week of results to get things to shake out but it seems like it's tracking mostly right.

    Full rankings and some thoughts

    Let's see how well this copies and pastes now...

    edit - ugh. it copies and pastes not well. Here's the simple table. Actually wait, here's an image!

    [IMG]
    MOS5 repped this.
  6. Fiosfan Member+

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  7. Fiosfan Member+

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  8. Jough Member

    Member Since:
    Jul 30, 2007
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    Kansas City
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    Sporting Kansas City
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  9. Jough Member

    Member Since:
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    Kansas City
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    Sporting Kansas City
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    United States
    One more iteration to spam.

    Likely some "controversy" in a few rankings. RSL and DC both lost to direct rivals but didn't drop in ranking. Again, with a moving average, slow adjustment formula I think the RSL-SJE and DC-NY swap may happen next week unless there's some dramatic wins for RSL and DC and losses for San Jose and New York. RSL really just a sneeze above San Jose at this point just a week and a half after being the clear top team.

    LA starting to make some upward movement as well, and Seattle, while still ranked a bit high, looks to be in free fall just a hair above Chicago, and is gonna need a big result to stay in the top 10.

    [IMG]
  10. ColinMcCarthy Member

    Member Since:
    Apr 2, 2010
    Location:
    San Jose, CA
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    San Jose Earthquakes
    Haven't been back to this thread in awhile so this was my first "new" post. Looks like we found a way to win games.
  11. Fiosfan Member+

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  12. Jough Member

    Member Since:
    Jul 30, 2007
    Location:
    Kansas City
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    Sporting Kansas City
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    United States
    Further down the rabit hole... Here's my updated Week 17 power rankings. RSL still a bit high based on their performance, but a big rating drop and the second worst form in the league (behind Montreal) means I think they'll drop more and have a hard time clawing back. Kansas City with a big drop too and probably in the same boat while Chicago makes a move and jumps two teams.

    Kind of weird how there was no change in the bottom 11 teams, too...

    [IMG]
  13. Fiosfan Member+

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  14. Fiosfan Member+

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  15. Fiosfan Member+

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  16. Jough Member

    Member Since:
    Jul 30, 2007
    Location:
    Kansas City
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    Sporting Kansas City
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    United States
    So again, I wasn't sure if I wanted to do mid week ratings, but I took a few days off for the holiday and wanted to roll out a fun new rating I'm calling the Super Happy Fun Rating. Here's the full writeup. It's basically the same rating as I was using before, except I took the inverse, so higher becomes better, and then multiplied it by a million, because huge numbers are fun. It also makes it easier for me to figure things out at a glance.

    Big change this week was DC up to #1, RSL down to #4 after continuuing poor form, and Seattle down to #9 for the same reason. SKCs win stopped their bleeding and Toronto is catching up to Dallas.

    Here's the table in image form.

    [IMG]
    SiberianThunderT repped this.
  17. Jough Member

    Member Since:
    Jul 30, 2007
    Location:
    Kansas City
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    Sporting Kansas City
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    United States
    Here's the final Week 18 rankings (and musings). I will note that DC get a bit lucky in that they played really well going into their bye week and the top teams around them sputtered a bit, so they sort of cruised into the top spot. The formula should self correct this as it now expects more of them, but it is something I'm aware of and thinking about.

    Here's the table. Kind of an interesting week really, even if not a lot changed.

    [IMG]
  18. Fiosfan Member+

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    Toronto FC
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  19. Fiosfan Member+

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  20. Jough Member

    Member Since:
    Jul 30, 2007
    Location:
    Kansas City
    Club:
    Sporting Kansas City
    Country:
    United States
    Another crack at weekly ratings. This time it's Toronto who get's screwed by the system, though in fairness, they're still last in the league by every metric. Looking at just the last 5 though they'd be ranked ninth in the league, and since the system is form based I think that even if they lose their next match they'll still be gaining in rating points. They're finally picking up momentum.

    Hard to figure out whether teams at the top should have dropped more or less after the craziness in San Jose and Houston, but I think it loks about right. DC drops a spot and RSL just barely holds onto 3rd above SKC.

    [IMG]
  21. Fiosfan Member+

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    Mar 21, 2010
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    New York
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    Toronto FC
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    United States
  22. Fiosfan Member+

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    United States
  23. Fiosfan Member+

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  24. Jough Member

    Member Since:
    Jul 30, 2007
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    Kansas City
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    Sporting Kansas City
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    United States
    Anoter iteration of mid week ratings. Now I'm starting to feel bad for Tortonto, but I understand why my system is still putting em at the bottom. They were so bad for so long that the formula "remembers" their truly awful form early in a season. In a sense, it's account for just how bad Toronto has shown they can be, though I personally feel like they're playing better than the worst team in the league lately. Maybe next season I'll tweak it so it only remembers the last 16 or so games...

    Also kinda weird to see Philly move like they did, but I think it's more an artifact of how bunched up thigns are towards the bottom of the table. And Dallas earns the rare "positive points" with a loss this week, showing that for them, just not getting blown out was a net positive. Anyway, here's the ratings.

    [IMG]
  25. Jough Member

    Member Since:
    Jul 30, 2007
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    Kansas City
    Club:
    Sporting Kansas City
    Country:
    United States
    Fiosfan repped this.

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