Actually not long ago it was on the news that two Brazilian footballers, Claudiney Rincon (midfielder) and Danilo (goalkeeper), who played for the Guinea-Bissau national team (they have naturalized a bunch of Brazilians), contracted malaria and were in treatment back in Brazil. Claudiney died, while Danilo recovered. Malaria is no joke.
Take this video and replace one whiny, Portuguese-speaking diver with another. That is how we should deal with him.
You lost me here. A true football hipster pick Doesn't even mention, Germany vs Portugal too come on man!
I'm certain that this isn't true, just speaking from a probability standpoint. In fact, it's probably more likely that we take points off of Germany than they go 3-0 while we go 0-3.
True. I was mentally bundling in all Group G matches with the US matches, as in absolutelycannotwaitjesuschristwhenwillJunegetherealready - level anticipation.
No, I'm not saying that is the most likely outcome. Nor do I think that will happen. I'm just speaking to the idea that Germany will be favored to win in all 3 of its matches, and we will be favored to lose in each of our matches. But the actual probability of W-W-W for Germany and L-L-L for USA is probably less than 20%. More specifically, there are 4 teams playing a round-robin, so there are "4 choose 2" = 4!/(2! * 2!) = 6 matches. Each match has 3 possible outcomes -- win, draw, or lose. So there are 6*3 = 18 possible outcomes for the group, and the sample space is 18. For each match, we can look at the probability of each outcome (W/D/L). For example, against Germany, the numbers might be: 10% USA win, 30% draw, 60% Germany win. I just made up those numbers for illustration. We can do a similar exercise for the other matches. Once we have all 6 probability sets, we can choose the most likely outcome from the sample space of 18. I would be interested in seeing the numbers on that. Maybe some kind statistician (*wink*) will run the numbers. Some will say that we should be favored over Ghana. I think it's close. USA is probably overrated in the FIFA rankings and Ghana underrated. Let's see what happens in Natal. If we beat Ghana, I will be giddy with joy. Now we have a motivational slogan: "Win this one for Bob!"
From November The Guardian Ranks the 32 Nations Esteemed football thinker Jonathan Wilson and Zonal Marking/ESPN.com's Michael Cox each assessed the 32 sides in Brazil and came up with a combined ranking. They pegged the US at 15th -- noting, however "Their progress is heavily dependent upon a good draw..." ...sigh....
and this is how we can have Jermaine deal with those Germans Jones has some history with Marco Reus as well Jones is a dirty, enforcing type of player but he's our dirty, enforcing player. I'm being a little sarcastic but I actually enjoy having a guy that other teams hate on our team. Us against them mentality, I guess.
I'd disagree with this pretty strongly. The most realistic outcome of each individual match may be for Germany to win and for us to lose (and I think even that's questionable as I think we may be favored vs. Ghana), but the most realistic outcome of all of the matches put together is for Germany to drop points in at least one match or for us to pick up points in at least one match, probably both. An 80% favorite in all three matches would actually win all three only half the time.
What percentage of World Cup groups, since say 1998, have seen their 6 matches played with zero draw results in that group? (And of those, which have seen one team finish on 9 points and another finish on zero?)
Teams that won all group matches, since 1994 -- just FYI: 2010: Argentina, the Netherlands 2006 Germany, Portugal, Brazil, Spain 2002 Spain, Brazil 1998 France, Argentina 1994 zippo
With the mix of English and German and the ******** you attitude, that music should be Jones' personal theme song.
So I finally finished my simulator, now good for the whole tournament. Also, can someone tell me how to copy something from Excel without the formatting getting all screwed up. Version based on SPI Ratings: USA Finish: Fail to Advance from Group = 60.58% Round of 16 Loss = 18.48% Quarterfinal Loss = 11.94% Semifinal Loss = 6.13% Final Loss = 2.18% World Champion = 0.69% Version based on Elo Ratings: USA Finish: Fail to Advance from Group = 61.76% Round of 16 Loss = 16.06% Quarterfinal Loss = 12.48% Semifinal Loss = 6.92% Final Loss = 2.14% World Champion = 0.65% Anything is possible, if not rational! Below are all 32 teams odds to win, along with some betting odds that I found. Brazil seems to be highly undervalued; odds are less than 3 to 2 based on SPI and Elo, but the bookmakers have them at 3-1. But you have to believe the plus 100 elo points for the home field advantage. If you pick the right parlour, along with Brazil, SPI also likes Germany, Chile, Ecuador, USA, Costa Rica and Honduras (YAY CONCACAF!). Elo bets are Brazil, Spain, Germany, Netherlands, USA, and Costa Rica. SPI Version: Team, Win%, Odds, Betting Odds Brazil, 41.639%, 1.4, 3 -3.5 Germany, 15.631%, 5.4, 5 - 6 Spain, 11.882%, 7.4, 6 - 7 Argentina, 11.553%, 7.7, 4.5 - 5 Chile, 3.187%, 30.4, 40 - 66 Colombia, 2.824%, 34.4, 20 - 22 Uruguay, 1.973%, 49.7, 25 - 33 France, 1.790%, 54.9, 18 - 22 Netherlands, 1.671%, 58.8, 20 - 28 England, 1.297%, 76.1, 25 - 33 Portugal, 1.093%, 90.5, 25 - 33 Ecuador, 0.842%, 117.7, 100 - 150 Belgium, 0.827%, 119.8, 14 USA, 0.689%, 144.2, 125 - 200 Italy, 0.677%, 146.6, 20 - 28 Russia, 0.663%, 149.8, 50 - 80 Bosnia, 0.308%, 323.5, 125 - 200 Switz, 0.294%, 339.2, 80 - 125 Ivory Coast, 0.276%, 361.0, 80 - 200 Greece, 0.202%, 494.1, 200 - 300 Mexico, 0.169%, 591.3, 100 - 150 Ghana, 0.123%, 812.1, 125 - 250 Nigeria, 0.082%, 1213.4, 200 - 300 Croatia, 0.081%, 1239.9, 125 - 200 Costa Rica, 0.074%, 1349.3, 1000 - 5000 Japan, 0.047%, 2134.6, 100 - 200 Korea, 0.039%, 2588.2, 200 - 500 Iran, 0.030%, 3345.7, 750 - 1500 Honduras, 0.025%, 3980.6, 1000 - 5000 Cameroon, 0.007%, 13680.6, 250 - 1000 Algeria, 0.001%, 73061.3, 500 - 2500 Australia, 0.001%, 79953.0, 250 -1000 Elo Version: Brazil, 42.140%, 1.4, 3 -3.5 Spain, 16.152%, 5.2, 6 - 7 Germany, 15.095%, 5.6, 5 - 6 Argentina, 8.130%, 11.3, 4.5 - 5 Netherlands, 4.228%, 22.6, 20 - 28 Portugal, 2.224%, 44.0, 25 - 33 Colombia, 1.837%, 53.4, 20 - 22 England, 1.675%, 58.7, 25 - 33 Uruguay, 1.438%, 68.6, 25 - 33 Italy, 1.185%, 83.4, 20 - 28 France, 1.001%, 98.9, 18 - 22 Chile, 0.782%, 126.9, 40 - 66 USA, 0.646%, 153.7, 125 - 200 Russia, 0.611%, 162.7, 50 - 80 Switz, 0.548%, 181.4, 80 - 125 Belgium, 0.492%, 202.1, 14 Ecuador, 0.488%, 204.1, 100 - 150 Greece, 0.326%, 306.2, 200 - 300 Mexico, 0.204%, 489.5, 100 - 150 Croatia, 0.180%, 554.6, 125 - 200 Ivory Coast, 0.179%, 556.4, 80 - 200 Bosnia, 0.161%, 618.5, 125 - 200 Japan, 0.070%, 1432.2, 100 - 200 Iran, 0.061%, 1629.4, 750 - 1500 Nigeria, 0.060%, 1673.1, 200 - 300 Costa Rica, 0.023%, 4401.8, 1000 - 5000 Korea, 0.022%, 4470.5, 200 - 500 Ghana, 0.020%, 4927.1, 125 - 250 Honduras, 0.011%, 8825.1, 1000 - 5000 Australia, 0.007%, 13537.4, 250 -1000 Algeria, 0.002%, 54244.9, 500 - 2500 Cameroon, 0.001%, 91690.5, 250 - 1000
I remember laughing at a German rapper Sido, talking about the mean streets of Berlin. Or another guy, can't remember his name, talking about how hard it was growing up in Koln. I felt like I'd just watched a rap video of how hard it was for kids growing up in suburban New Jersey or Connecticut.
And the "zero-point" teams from specifically those shared groups as the 9-pointers? Edit: 2010: Netherlands 9 w/ Cameroon 0 2006 Germany 9 w/ Costa Rica 0 2002 Spain 9 w/ Slovenia 0 Brazil 9 w/ China 0 1998 Argentina 9 w/Japan o So, if we accept the sample size of the last four WC finals, there have been 10/32 groups with a effect 3-0-0 tam on 9 points. And there have been 5/32 groups that have had both a 9-Pt and a 0-Pt team. (If that ratio is held and repeated, then we could/should see perhaps one group with both a 3-win and a 3-loss team. Don't know if Group G is any more or less likely than any of the other groups to be "that" or one of "those" groups.)
Yes, your first phrase was the point I was trying to make, and the rest of it is the point I was making in my followup post. The most likely outcome, by definition, is that Germany goes 3-0 and we go 0-3, because those are the expected results of each match. However, there is less than a 20% chance that that will occur (I don't know the true figure according to the bookies -- just accept the 20% for the sake of discussion). And therefore, there is greater than 80% chance that this won't occur. These types of groups almost always have upsets. I'm sure this group will be no different.
There are in fact 3 to the 6th power, or 729, possible outcomes for the set of six group-stage matches.
I knew a guy (fcuking trustafarian) who decided it was a good idea to sleep out in a tent in the tropical lowlands to be closer to nature. On top of that, no mosquito net. End result was he got a bot fly larva behind his ear. The worst part about it ...on top of the pain I imagine...was he could hear the thing move around.