WC 2014: What big team(s) will croak in the first round and really let down this fans this summer?

Group B, D and G are pretty tough. Any big team can choke and go home early there. In fact, one big team in group D has to leave early.
Based on the stats Mexico, Ghana and USA don't have good chances to pass the groups. And I guess it's not looking good for England too. I don't think that Netherlands will go far either.

 

No offense to those teams but USA, CIV, Mexico, Ghana, and Russia aren't really "Big teams" by any stretch of imagination. Any team you left out from the poll can easily beat/tie the above teams any day of the week.

 

in this order

1. England
2. Holland
3. Uruguay
4. Portugal
5. Italy
6. Spain

 

I think Uruguay, Italy and England will not advance.

Just kidding!

Portugal, Holland, England. I can't seem to vote so feel free to put mine in

 

And Colombia, Netherlands, Portugal, Uruguay and Belgium are??

 

Yes Netherlands are far bigger and better than the US who are not that good. Uruguay not great same Portugal . Belgium are a good side.

I think the groups will go pretty much as expected but I think Brazil will go out in either the second or third round.

 

I expect Portugal to go home after the group stage. They're good and certainly not a one-man-show, but the group is pretty much the toughest possible with a European seed. Ghana and the US are both hard to beat and one of them will advance alongside Germany ( hoping that will be Ghana obviously ).

 

Uh, so you think Ghana and US will be both hard to beat and Portugal will be what, easy?

You should do some research. Portugal has the best group stage record of any team in Europe in the last decade.

 

No, I expect Portugal to go out completely undeserved and either Ghana or the US to just hold out and sneak through despite being the much worse team. I really respect Portugal and in pretty much any other draw they'd advance, but this is just one of "those" groups.

 

Neither Ghana nor the US have the defensive ability to "hold out" particularly with Ronaldo on the opposing side. Yes, its a difficult group but that in no way means that Portugal suffer more from that than Ghana or the US. Portugal has more experience, more talent, etc. etc.

 

I'm not debating that at all. You are the second best team in the group quality wise by a large margin ahead of the US and Ghana, but that's not how things play out in a group like that.

 

Please enlighten me.

 

wait what?






















would love to see it tho since it's almost imposible.

 

I think the only teams capable of having a catastrophic failure given expectations are Brazil, Germany and Spain.

Spain and Germany are in the only groups that may give them some trouble though (I expect them to progress in first place though). Brazil will cruise through.

As for other teams, obviously one of group D has to fail. Italy I think are most likely to make it, and I would put England having the edge over Uruguay. However, it's pretty close.

USA will fail their massive Bigsoccer fanbase.

I expect the Dutch, Portuguese, Belgians, Argentinians and French to progress.

 

Personally, I think the (Twice!) should be for the fact that France has made two finals of the last four WCs. I'm never shocked when they're bounced from the first round.

 

I don't consider Portugal a big team. They've never won anything. They are the equivalent of a Norway or Slovenia with the added benefit of Cristiano Ronaldo's presence. Its not really an upset if they finish below Ghana or the US.

I predict Chile will surprise and win group B, which will set up an epic Brazil-Spain game in the round of 16.

Uruguay is going to flop in the World Cup. All the other S. American teams will advance and they'll be 3 and out.

 

I don't want to give credence to the list of "big" teams in this poll. I will share my 2 cents on the overall topic tough.

1) I don't think Uruguay will advance to the R16. For fans of a team that made the semifinal last time, and who are Copa America champions, that will certainly be disappointing. But that just fits in with a pattern that has developed for a couple of decades now.

2) I wouldn't be entirely surprised if Spain failed, but for now, I pick Holland as the team that will not get out Group B. France and Italy gave us the precedent of both previous World Cup finalists failing to advance from their group last time around, but this time I don't see Australia and Chile as the teams to advance from this group. But I do see one of Spain and Holland failing and Chile advancing instead.

3) Portugal is on the cusp. They may advance, but they can't take if for granted They have a tough enough group that can derail their World Cup.

 

I didn't realise there were at least 17 big teams in this World Cup.

 

Looking at the draw, I think the most likely elite teams to crash out early are:

Group B: Spain or Netherlands. I'll be very surprised if Chile crash out instead.

Group C:

I don't believe this will actually happen, but group C is deceptively difficult for Colombia. None of the teams are weak. Ivory Coast isn't what it was from 2005-2010, but it still is a lethal squad in the attack, it could keep up with Colombia. Japan has been outstanding for at least the past five years. They dramatically outplayed a very, very good Italy team at the Confed Cup, but were undone by a difficult draw (2 of the 3 toughest teams at the confed cup were in their group, they weren't advancing out of that group barring a miracle), and they played better and better as World Cup '10 drew on, defeating Cameroon, nearly drawing Netherlands, falling 1-0 in a very even game. crushing Denmark 3-0, and playing Paraguay very tough before falling on PK's in the round of 16. They are very good. This looks like the best Greek team I've seen since 2004, and maybe a better team than that considering that this one actually has a legit threat at striker. This is a Greek team that could beat Ivory Coast, could beat Japan, and could draw, or hold Colombia scoreless. They could also get pummeled and humiliated as they have been in every major tourney they've played in since '04, I just tend to doubt that happens. So while I technically have Colombia making a run to the quarters or the semi's, it would not be totally shocking to see them crash out in group play. None of the teams in C are bad. And in that sense, C is a great deal like group G, a group without a single weak side.

Group D:

I see England crashing out entirely. I think Uruguay and Italy take the group without much of a problem. I think Costa Rica could actually leave England with only 1 or 0 points in the whole tourney.

Group G:

Portugal.

They've been underrated by everyone, and I actually view them as a top 8 side in the tourney, whatever struggles they may repeatedly have in qualifiying, they have shown a remarkable ability to get focused in major tourneys, and redouble their efforts when the pressure is levied upon them. So in that sense, they are well prepared to handle whatever comes at them in the group of death. However, with that being said, there's very little evidence available to suggest that they are better than any of the sides in G. Ghana basically showed they are a legit top 4-8 side in the world when they're on their game, and are well deserving of top 12 in the world consideration despite FIFA's moronic rankings (and the underrankings of more respected systems like those of SPI and ELO), the United States played the best soccer in its history for long stretches of 2013, and if healthy, are excellent in the midfield and in the attack and at goal keeper. Both sides could steal a ticket ahead of Portugal very easily, especially if they can either get a result against Germany, or at least keep the GD down as Portugal did at the '12 Euro's.

My guess is that Portugal advances, but I think Ghana and the US have nearly identical odds to advance as Portugal, and Portugal actually has the worst schedule of any team considering every game they play will likely be against a team desperate for a win, and focused entirely on the 3.

So at the end of the day the most likely crash shockers to me are:

Netherlands, Spain, Colombia, England, and Portugal.

Among that group I think the squads most likely to deliver the shock are Netherlands, England, and Portugal.

 

Obviously, I have the US bias going for me; but you can go back to many of my posts before the draw to see that I have been very skeptical of Portugal's quality.

Can you make the case that Portugal is a top 8 squad? Sure. But, there isn't a big difference between 7,8 and 15,16, imo. And that is basically the range that Portugal are. They're not elite. They're not even that close to it, imo.

Therefore, them advancing or being eliminated is not a 'shocker.' In fact, given the percent odd of them advancing is 42 percent, it would be slightly more 'shocking' to see them advance.

What WC team isn't top 4-8 when on their game? I don't think that means much to me. Ghana is the worst team in the group, and if a team doesn't get a result against them, they are going to be in serious peril. Hopefully, Portugal and Germany make the mistake of seeing us down at or under the Ghana level, and that'll play into our heads in terms of attaining results. Tis true, that being cast as the underdog may be what the US wants.

Actually, as far as odds go, Portugal and US are the ones with the near identical odds (42,39). Ghana is at 28 percent. I reallize you may have a different opinion, but just going by Nate Silver (noted statistician)'s analysis.

 

Except without Ronaldo, I repeat without Ronaldo, they have a team value of 192 million Euro, Slovenia 63.5 million and Norway 20 million. Nothing wrong with being Ignorant, but it's better to say I don't know, rather then assert a ridiculous claim. I guess you could also believe Portuguese player agents happen to be the best in the world.