Veepstakes 2012

Now that July is almost here, the Election forum needs a thread on the race for the Vice Presidency. Republicans in recent years have made some surprising selections for the VP spot, but the general speculation right now seems to be that Romney wants a less daring selection with a focus on economic policy issues.

Right now, my top 5 would be Portman, Jindal, Ryan, Pawlenty and Thune.

I imagine Obama will stick with Biden, while I think most of the 3rd parties have already selected their candidates.

I say that Romney will pick Marco Rubio or Condi Rice.

Jindal and Ryan are similar cases IMO. On paper, both are exciting for the Republican base but at the same time both are rather bland and vanilla. That's perfect for what Romney is looking for. I have Jindal ahead of Ryan because I think he's been "vetted" more since he has been seen as a possibility since 2008.

Let me list the candidates I don't see as likely:

-Rubio: he is young enough that even a Romney victory doesn't end his chances for higher office so he doesn't have to commit now; in an Obama victory, he can make sure to come across as a "reasonable" GOP voice in any immigration legislation.
-Christie: too much of an alpha dog, plus at this point he's a top contender for 2016 if Romney loses.
-Santorum: will bring up too many issues that Romney would want to ignore.
-Daniels: fits Romney's criteria but has become president of Purdue University, so it seems he's signaling that he's not interested.
-Martinez, Ayotte, Haley, Bachmann: Romney seems to be scared off by simplistic reasoning, that a woman will turn into Palin 2.0.

Obama is definitely sticking with Biden. If the 0.001% chance that Biden isn't on the ticket interests anybody, however, it is fair game in this thread.

Romeny is from the avaricious wing of the party. They dont have the electoral numbers. In fact, the only thing which makes the party feasible is the god, guns and gays wing. The first, when sitting in soft leather wing chairs, despises the second. However, they are in that basket. The GOP is a MasterBlaster. Therefore, they have to shine on the rubes by making one of them XO. Its either Ryan Paul, Alan West, or Eric Cantor.

Hasn't Rubio already made a Shermanesque-ish statement?

Also, Christie's candidacy, in 2012 or 2016, is a non-starter, I think, for one reason, two words: Bernie, Madoff.

I like Rice, shit I may even vote for that ticket (sorry Green Party) but I doubt that will happen, the conservative base would hate it.

R-Money picking Condi is his double down on the oppression olympics (black and female) and trumps Obama (only black, sad face). Plus Condi isn't Palin.

I think Romney has to go with a pick that will add pizzazz to the ticket, and I don't see any non-minority candidate doing that, can you? Pawlenty? Boring.

Rubio is also articulate and seemingly has no skeletons in the closet besides fibbing his origin story.

Rubio or Ryan.

Put me down for Rubio for the simple reason that the Romney campaign knows that losing Florida is checkmate. Not that I think Rubio actually helps Romney in FL, but that's another kettle of fish...

Pawlenty.

Don't you think Pawlenty is too boring and would make a Romney/Pawlenty ticket the most vanilla, boring ticket in the history of the entire world?

Rubio was on The Daily Show the other day, acting like a non-crazy conservative.

Just sayin'...

I've found that quinoa is a fantastic substitute for rice, and it's far more healthy for you. I mean, it's got all the complex amino acids, bro (or so I'm told)! Plus, it's a grain that even gluten-intolerant peeps can eat. Plus, it's grown sustainably in the Andes!

Yeah, But The Ann-Bot Tells Fox "News" That a Woman Is Being Considered For The Ticket

Mitt Romney's wife has disclosed a tantalizing detail about her husband's intensely secret vice presidential search: He's considering choosing a woman.

"We've been looking at that, and I love that option as well," Ann Romney told CBS News in an interview broadcast Thursday. She added: "There's a lot of people that Mitt is considering right now."

She also argued that Obama and his Democrats will "do everything they can to destroy Mitt."

"Early on we heard what their strategy was. It was kill Romney," she said, adding a message to Obama: "Not when I'm next to him you better not."

Oh: And Quinoa is great, but it's too ethnic-y to appeal to the base. Then again, so is rice.

Now, "Connie Whitebread" does have an appealing dog-whistle-like ring to it, now that I think about it.

Yep, but if Mitt follows the general logic of a VP pick (it can only hurt you, not help), he'll go with Pawlenty. Rubio doesn't want the job, sure they all say it, but I'm convinced he's serious.

This is, of course, very likely exactly what Romney wants.

Also, bear in mind that Romney won't repeat the mistake of the previous GOP nominee and pick a VP who is more exciting than himself. And Romney is exceedingly boring.

I'm pretty much entirely sold on the idea that it will either be Portman or Pawlenty. And if Romney is worried about Ohio, it'll be Portman.

But VP candidates don't actually win you otherwise contested states, right (is this something campaigns still care about?)? Portman seems to make sense, if only because he's less tainted than the others in my eye.

The evidence isn't convincing either way. But I suspect campaign consultants still believe they help.

Portman is a boring white guy who might make Romney look more interesting by comparison.

Here's my not-so-contrarian view on things. As much as I hate "conventional wisdom" there are plenty of people out there saying that Romney is looking for a "boring white guy" (obviously not to balance the ticket but I digress).

McCain's team (and I say "McCain's team" and not "McCain" because by all accounts he wasn't in love with the pick) chose Sarah Palin because she was perceived as a game-changer, and the only reason you go with a game-changer is, well, because you want to change the game because you think you're losing. Obviously that didn't work out for McCain very well.

If they think they're likely to win, I think they go with Pawlenty, who is as boring a white guy as you can find. If they think they need a game-changer, they go with Jindal, who is a boring non-white guy.

What we do know is that:
1. Campaigns don't look to VP candidates to deliver states, which could be a self-fulfilling prophecy, but still.

2. There's no example of a VP candidate delivering a state, or even making it competitive since, arguably, LBJ in 1960.

Which isn't to say that the Romney campaign won't consider the potential to deliver a state. But it's probably pretty low in the list of priorities, like Manuel Neur's ability to score from the spot. It's a nice asset, but it's not why he's on the team.

The other female choice floating around is Kelly Ayotte from New Hampshire. R-Money walked with her during the 4th of July parade. I don't know a thing about her.

I honestly don't believe that campaign operative are always persuaded by evidence in matters of this sort. Of all the irrational reasons for choosing a veep that we've seen in recent years, possibly delivering a state is one of the least irrational.

That said, if it came up I think it'd play out like this: hypothetically, they're deciding between Jindal and Portman, pluses and minuses on both sides, all things even out, but Portman gets the nod because of Ohio.

I saw Ryan. He is safe, he appeals to the core, and he is with Mitt on helping the top 1 percent.

Well with Al Gore you could say Presidential candidates do not win their own home states.