First one. Scott French didn't cover last night's match because he was at the Galaxy. But, yeah, they're in a world of hurt. Halfway through their home schedule.
Division 3 Code: 46.2% complete Year Avg Median %<1K %>3k 2005 1692 1410 19.5% 14.6% 2006 1706 1450 17.1% 14.6% 2007 1609 1451 28.3% 8.7% 2008 1710 1678 17.4% 8.7% 2009 1669 1553 24.4% 4.9% 2010 1739 1385 37.0% 22.2% 2011 2302 1646 27.3% 30.3% 2012 2765 1800 31.1% 39.3% Median-33%: 1200 Median+33%: 2400 <MED-33%: 24 / 39.3% >MED+33%: 26 / 42.6% Median has managed to stay at 18oo, but this is still very abnormal distribution, with only 15 games in the 'center'. I'll probably quit mentioning that it is actually almost certainly substantially lower, what with the missing Dayton and Harrisburg attendances. I'm happy to see LA being brave enough to post their numbers from this past weekend. Here's hoping they continue. The average dropped about 100. However, it's nice to see Harrisburg, Pittsburgh and Charlotte hit season highs this weekend. They're all going to need some more of that to match their number from last year. Next weekend is a light weekend, with only Pittsburgh, Orlando, Richmond, Charleston, and Dayton hosting. Average will probably go down again, but the median might actually go up.
And, so, at the end of the day, what does this all mean? Orlando can draw, we know that. They're in a solid situation, and the only question is what happens if their MLS ambitions aren't realized in a reasonable timeframe? Rochester is putting up similar numbers, but with the caveat that those actually in Rochester don't believe those numbers reflect the number of people going to games. Wilmington and Charleston are two clubs you don't have to worry about, apparently. They matter to their communities, and while the Hammerheads could use an actual soccer stadium, Wilmingtoners are apparently not that interested in paying for a new baseball stadium to lure a Carolina League team, so there we are. Richmond could use a new yard, but I don't know how realistic that is. Charlotte seems to make do (there's long been talk of them moving into a new facility when it's done) and Pittsburgh is on its way to a new yard. Harrisburg seems like it either has to get Skyline renovated or move to Hershey or something, but the City Islanders don't seem to be a sickly franchise. All those clubs seem solid, no? So it seems to come down to Dayton, LA and Antigua in terms of the question marks, doesn't it? Dayton seems to be all about its youth academy, which is great if it's your business but not that great in terms of a pro league. Once Antigua is bounced from World Cup qualifying, I don't know how interested their federation will be in continuing to help out Barracuda FC after this year. And we've talked about LA. Could USL Pro go with just those eight solid franchises? Sure, I reckon. They could use a few more, but a solid core would be worthwhile, given how much churn there's been at the lower levels for all these years.
"Could USL Pro go with just those eight solid franchises? Sure, I reckon. They could use a few more, but a solid core would be worthwhile, given how much churn there's been at the lower levels for all these years." Agreed that a solid 8 would be something to build on. The sad thing is that would mean going from 15 down to 8 (almost half) over the course of two seasons, but a solid 8 would give stability and conceivably greater credibility. Another plus would be the reduced travel costs sans LA and Antigua. A solid eastern based 8 could attract new potential ownership groups and be something to grow on.
Yeah, but 8 is still more than the third division had in 2010. It's not like 1997-98 anymore when there were 39 third division teams. Addition by subtraction is often a good thing. I'd rather have these eight than those 15.
It looks a lot better in person from fan perspective, if you ignore the higher bowls. Of course it doesn't help that you were watching on the feed. There was a TON of people on the side opposite where the camera was facing. Had to have been at least three times as many as the camera side. Charlotte's actually drawing more than flies. Interesting. VC: The "circa 150" was probably LA's real attendance. And ~250 still sucks.
Charlotte had a best season average of 1561 in 2007, and has usually drawn at least 1,000, sometimes nearing 2,000. Until the start of this season. The three bad attendances were a Friday, a Tuesday, and a Friday. Wonder if that had something to do with it. Anyone know what the weather was like there in mid-April?
This. This is what I said about the USL Pro right from the beginning. This would have been in line with what they were telling us they were doing - a regional D3 league. When your outliers are Orlando and Rochester, it's a lot more "regional" than if they are the Caribbean and Los Angeles. Maybe, finally, someone over at USL HQ has decided it's time to do away with trying to compete with the NASL on national, and even international footprint, and instead focus on what they told the world they were going to do in the first place, be a regional D3 league. Promote expansion within your established core regions. Maybe someday you have the interest to grow divisions across the map. But as Kenn said, they have what looks to be a pretty solid core. Grow out from them instead of randomly all over the place.
It looked a little more than that. But the rain was coming down hard. Next up is Rochester. It should be back to normal numbers.
Division 3 Code: 50.0% complete Year Avg Median %<1K %>3k 2005 1629 1390 22.2% 13.3% 2006 1732 1472 17.8% 15.6% 2007 1595 1423 30.0% 8.0% 2008 1667 1662 18.0% 8.0% 2009 1608 1289 26.7% 4.4% 2010 1762 1379 36.7% 23.3% 2011 2302 1646 27.8% 30.6% 2012 2735 1879 31.8% 39.4% Median-33%: 1253 Median+33%: 2505 <MED-33%: 28 / 42.4% >MED+33%: 26 / 39.4% We're halfway through the season now. Average went down a little, and median went up. Which means it actually was a fairly decent week. Both median and average are the highest they've ever been, but if you look at the distribution, it actually might look more like a double bell. Dayton's attendance was the lowest they've reported this season, and because of the weather in Florida, so was Orlando's. But it was still better than last year's low. Next week, home games in Charlotte, Antigua, Dayton, Pittsburgh, Rochester, and Wilmington. Median should go back to 1800. I'll be interested to see if Charlotte can keep their numbers up. And seeing whether Antigua reports 800 or 1000.
"And seeing whether Antigua reports 800 or 1000." lol - maybe they'll shock you and report a number than starts with an odd number....there will still just be zero's at the end, but maybe switch it up a bit and go 900 or 1100.
That would certainly be different. Their attendances this year have been 1800, 1200, 1000 or 800. Where I am today, I have an odd appreciation for it. Reality is, those numbers may not be that much more accurate than LA's (just to pick on someone) 2432, 1388, etc. There is a certain amount of fiction to the idea that you can accurately know exactly how many people are at a game.
You can get a drop count. Electronically scanned tickets can get you that number more quickly, but most lower-level teams aren't going to have that. We used to count ticket stubs the next day.
Oh, yeah, I understand. I was just feeling philosophical, heisenbergian and tropical. As bent out of shape as I can get seeing '800' as a reported attendance several times, I was just thinking that there's other realities involved that are an entirely different mindset.
Division 3 Code: 53.8% complete Year Avg Median %<1K %>3k 2005 1645 1400 20.8% 12.5% 2006 1719 1472 18.8% 14.6% 2007 1570 1423 30.2% 7.5% 2008 1633 1633 20.8% 7.5% 2009 1565 1284 29.2% 4.2% 2010 1725 1379 37.5% 21.9% 2011 2245 1424 31.2% 29.9% 2012 2740 1800 32.4% 39.4% Median-33%: 1200 Median+33%: 2400 <MED-33%: 28 / 39.4% >MED+33%: 30 / 42.3% Code: Final Numbers Year Avg Median %<1K %>3k 2005 1680 1457 21.4% 11.9% 2006 1803 1703 14.1% 11.8% 2007 1575 1423 28.1% 6.3% 2008 1614 1629 26.0% 7.3% 2009 1602 1518 31.8% 7.1% 2010 1689 1385 35.1% 17.5% 2011 2269 1449 32.4% 31.0% Median went down, average went up, pushed by solid numbers out of Rochester and Wilmington. The only attendance not mentioned above was Thur @ Charlotte - 530 Annoying that Antigua couldn't bother to report their attendance. I mean, really, how hard is it to write down '800'? A check of the weather indicates no issues on that front. So I'm now up to five missing attendances for the season. This week's games actually start tonight. For this coming week, we'll have Richmond, Dayton, Rochester (2x), Pittsburgh, Charleston, Los Angeles (2x), Harrisburg, Wilmington, and Charlotte. I wonder, with a 4th of July game, if Rochester can top 10k. That's probably asking way too much, and we should be happy to see them beat last year's high of 7459. Checking the forecast, yeah, that's probably asking too much. Since there's still a dearth of attendances around the median, we could see it drop quite a bit. Assuming that all attendances are reported. If the big players put up big numbers again, I suppose attendance could rise. Out of curiosity, I started looking at some additional analysis like bgix did here. But as you can see by eyeballing the numbers above for averages (which is the only one I looked at), there isn't any nice trend like with MLS. If I took the time to save the images and upload them, all you'd see is more reinforcement of the instability that we all know has always been there.