So now it looks like ESPN has caught up on SPI. Jamaica now, rightly so, is one of the "Biggest Movers," jumping 12 spots in their ranking. Strangely though, we have swapped spots with Honduras and are now ranked slightly ahead of them. I'm not sure whether SPI was disappointed that they only beat us by one goal at home, older results are being added or dropped, or it's something that's gone on at the club level. We didn't change much, it was Honduras that dropped. Not that much change for MEX, PAN, or CR either. At any rate... Top3% + 4th%*WinNZ% Mexico: 97.4% + 1.9%*92.7% = 99.1% Costa Rica: 60.4% + 17.7%*74.7% = 73.6% Honduras: 50.5% + 20.7%*67.0% = 64.3% United States: 35.1% + 21.0%*70.0% = 49.8% Jamaica = 29.1% + 19.3%*60.9% = 40.9% Panama = 27.6% + 19.4%*65.1% = 40.2% Lesson, a strong Jamaica is not good news for anybody.
I can confirm this. Bolivia has an exaggerated standing. Most likely their 7-1 result against Argentina in the 2010 qualifiers weighs heavily.
If I calculated the Elo points exchanged yesterday correctly, it stands this way: Top3%+ 4th%*BeatNZ% Mexico = 94.2% + 4.0%*87.7% = 97.8% USA = 72.6% + 15.3%*71.6% = 83.5% Honduras = 61.0% + 19.5%*61.4% = 73.0% Panama = 31.8% + 24.3%*62.4% = 46.9% Costa Rica = 31.9% + 24.5%*59.4% = 46.5% Jamaica = 8.5% + 12.4%*43.9% = 13.9% Very good night for the good guys.
BTW, the Hobbits secured qualification for the play-off yesterday in the wee hours of the morning(EST), so now they are watching carefully what happens in our corner of the rock.
All of our opponents matches so far have been draws. This is a very good thing. To illustrate, Elo had the Jamaica/Panama game as very even (Panama 52 to 48, one Elo point was exchanged), so you might say a draw was the expected result. However, these 2 nations both suffer for it. Jamaica's top3% dropped to 8.5% from 11.3%, and Panama's went down to 31.8% from 37.8%.
I wrote about it extensively in some thread now buried who knows where before the Hex started: the fact that the UNCAF teams are so close this time around, and also close to Jamaica, was going to prove good for the USA in the end. The more ties happen in the other games, the better the chances to climb the table. Right now after two games the USA is second only to the team that has played two home games (Honduras), so the effect is already showing (in my calculations I wasn't expecting Mexico to be also in the group with the many ties, it's been a happy surprise). When there is a tie, both teams are basically wasting a point. If you win all your games at home, lose all the games away, and all the other teams tie each other in games not involving your team, you emd up at the top (you got 15 points, everybody else got 11).
Being in a race keeps some folks from getting desperate. But it can also keep them from being decisive. Current Elo rankings : Mexico - 10th (1867 pts) USA - 28th (1735) Panama - 37th (1677) Honduras - 38th (1671) Costa Rica - 41st (1659) Jamaica - 65th (1564) On paper, this is Mexico and everyone else but it surely isn't turning out this way so far. Places 2-5 ought to be hotly contested and Jamaica's stronger with its English contingent (that is not reflected in the ratings) and arguably in the thick of things as well.
Jamaica really messed up, allowing Panama to tie at home in the 66th minute. Going into the Hex, they were considered, by most, the two weakest teams. It really hurt their qualifying chances (and, of course, boosted Panama's). Teams have to hold serve at home to qualify. Once again, Jamaica's character and organizational abilities are at question. http://www.sbnation.com/2014-world-...876/jamaica-vs-panama-2013-final-score-result
My perhaps superfluous update including the including recent Hex results and ELO changes. Results: Team-------------- Direct Q %-------------- Playoff %----------------- Out% Mexico: ---------------89-------------------------7-------------------------4 USA: ------------------68------------------------17------------------------ 15 Honduras:-------------52-------------------------22-----------------------25 Panama: --------------22------------------------19------------------------59 Costa Rica: -----------57-------------------------21------------------------22 Jamaica: -------------12-------------------------13------------------------75 Things are getting intersting.
More fun: according to ELO, the US does not want CR to win v. Jamaica (probably obvious). If the US loses to Mexico, then direct qualification (top 3) runs from 59% to 68% depending on other results. CR result against Jamaica has the largest effect.
And if the US steals a point, the direct qualification (top 3) runs from 71% to 77% depending on other results.
After the results of Matchday 3 and the associated ELO point swaps, here are how the teams' probabilities of qualifying or making the playoff stand: Team-------------- Direct Q %-------------- Playoff %----------------- Out% Mexico: ---------------78------------------------13--------------------------9 USA: ------------------76------------------------13------------------------ 11 Honduras:-------------36------------------------25------------------------38 Panama: --------------34------------------------24------------------------43 Costa Rica: -----------70------------------------16------------------------14 Jamaica: --------------7--------------------------9------------------------84 Hmmm. My instincts tell me the picture should not be this clear at all. JAM's ELO is not very good and does not reflect the new recruits. Panama is leading the group, but still has a 43% chance of crashing out? Well that must be because 4 of their remaing 7 matches are against the US and Mexico. But, Honduras has already played Mexico and the US and gotten 4 points, so why aren't they given a better chance? Their road loss shouldn't be that big a deal. But their ELO may be underrrated. Maybe I have a bug. Plenty of time to do some digging before June!
Using my own eyes and judgement to predict the Hex (sometimes a bad barometer, I know) 1. Jamaica is in trouble after their early tie at Azteca. Allowing, Panama, once considered the weak sister in the Hex to tie at the Office and losing 2-0 in Costa Rica last night, nearly knocks them out of consideration. 2. The USA may have played their toughest two away qualifiers (Honduras and Mexico) and has four games left at home. This is good. 3. Mexico has too much talent to founder much more. 3 ties, Holy Smokes . . a coaching change may be in the offing.
I think you do have a bug actually. Check your Costa Rica points/math somewhere. I'm getting this: Top3 + 4th*NZ = WC Mexico = 86.7% + 8.6%*86.5% = 94.1% USA = 78.3% + 12.8%*73.5% = 87.7% Panama = 45.9% + 24.6%*64.8% = 61.8% Costa Rica = 42.9% + 23.0%*61.1% = 56.9% Honduras = 42.0% + 24.1%*59.2% = 56.3% Jamaica = 4.2% + 7.0%*42.3% = 7.2% My thoughts on this: 87.7% is optimistic for me, and I'll run with that to the bank right now. Mexico, no coaching change needed. Dogfight for 3,4,5 is gonna be fun. Jamaica is better than Elo thinks it is. Did anyone see if ESPN gave an update on their odds? They did after the Costa Rica match. If they did can someone post it? If not I'll run my SPI version...SPI actually looking pretty accurate now IMHO; MEX #10, USA #29, CR #32, HON #39, PAN #41, JAM #51, NZ #67
Ok, bug found! (If you give Costa Rica points for beating Panama, when the actual result was a draw, it will screw things up). Actual probabilities: Team-------------- Direct Q %-------------- Playoff %----------------- Out% Mexico: ---------------80------------------------12--------------------------9 USA: ------------------77------------------------12------------------------ 10 Honduras:-------------39------------------------24------------------------38 Panama: --------------49------------------------23------------------------29 Costa Rica: -----------49------------------------21------------------------31 Jamaica: --------------7--------------------------9------------------------84 This looks better to my eye and is a lot more consistent with dlokteff. So I think it's pretty good. The bad news for the US is that it makes the trip to Panama look all the more difficult.
I just want to put out a big Thank You to the posters who have the knowledge and time to do this kind of analysis and post the results here. It is much appreciated, even with the occasional boo-boo.
ahhh, but I screwed up. Didn't account for goal difference earlier and failed to give New Zealand credit for their inspiring win over the Solomon Islands. Doesn't impact the US much, but my corrected table is.... Mexico - 86.2% + 8.9%*85.6% = 93.8% USA - 77.8% + 13.1%*72.0% = 87.2% Panama - 48.1% + 24.7%*64.3% = 64.0% Costa Rica - 45.0% + 22.5%*60.2% = 58.5% Honduras - 39.1% + 24.3%*56.3% = 52.8% Jamaica - 3.9% +6.5%*40.1% = 6.5%
And here are the probabilities using ESPN's SPI instead of ELO: Team-------------- Direct Q %-------------- Playoff %----------------- Out% Mexico: ---------------81------------------------10--------------------------9 USA: ------------------69------------------------15------------------------ 16 Honduras:-------------43------------------------22------------------------36 Panama: --------------37------------------------22------------------------41 Costa Rica: -----------57------------------------19------------------------25 Jamaica: --------------13------------------------13------------------------74 This makes it notably tighter for the US and Panama, and Costa Rica continues to look pretty solid according to SPI. Jamaica and Honduras get a little more love by this metric, but not enough to be excited about.
ESPN did write that Mexico now stands at 86.4% overall qualification, and the US at 77.5% My #'s below seem to overvalue Mexico relative to how ESPN does their sims, but is close on the US. I haven't seen a full table published by ESPN so here is mine based on SPI: Mexico = 89.8% + 6.5%*91.9%= 95.4% USA = 67.2% + 15.9%*76.2% = 78.7% Costa Rica = 53.3% + 20.6%*74.6% = 65.7% Honduras = 43.9% + 22.3%*70.3% = 56.5% Panama = 35.3% + 22.9%*67.9% = 50.1% Jamaica = 10.4% + 11.7%*59.5% = 15.1%
Ours look pretty similar now. Other than Mexico, we are within 2-3 percentage points for all teams. I think the actual odds of surviving the two legs against New Zealand are not so rosy though, for any of the countries. Over 30 matches in the HEX, the percentages tend to come through, but for an around the world, 180 minute gut-check, well, let's just say I would take New Zealand and 2 to 1 odds against Panama.
I wonder if it worth trying to skew the results formula to predict more draws -- in line with what has been happening this cycle. Would be interesting to see if it changes the odds any or if it just changes the point totals.
I wouldn't take New Zealand over anyone except maybe Jamaica. New Zealand has a hard time generating offense, they also don't really know what is like to play in an intimidating environment it took Australia a while to adjust back in the days when they would represent the OFC and have to travel to Latin America. It would be easy for any CONCACAF team to tie New Zealand 0-0 in New Zealand and win at home
I may have been unclear. Right now I would bet $10 to win $20 that NZ would win the two-leg playoff with Panama.