I'm going to look at the Hex's for the last 3 WCs to see how well the final standing correlated with the teams Elo Ratings as of the end of the semifinal rounds. Let's start with qualifying for the 2010 WC. I give two numbers in parentheses. The first is the points the team gained in the Hex and the second is their Elo Rating as of the end of the semifinal rounds. 2010 US (20) (1791) Mex (19) (1814) Hond (16) (1706) CR (16) (1682) ES (8) (1471) T&T (6) (1568) Elo did pretty well here in distinguishing between the front-runners (US and Mexico), the middle teams (Honduras and Costa Rica) and the weaklings (ES and T&T). There was a mild upset in the form of the US finishing ahead of Mexico and a bit more of an upset from El Salvador finishing ahead of T&T. Moving on to to the 2006 WC. 2006 Mex (22) (1844) US (22) (1804) CR (16) (1670) T&T (13) (1473) Guat (11) (1581) Pan (2) (1495) Here there was one upset. T&T's Cinderella run all the way to the WC. Otherwise, no significant surprises. 2002 CR (23) (1579) Mex (17) (1848) US (17) (1768) Hon (14) (1689) Jamaica (8) (1536) T&T (5) (1639) Here we get an even bigger surprise from Costa Rica. They outperformed their rating by a huge amount (with the result that their Elo Rating rose almost 200 points over the course of the Hex). Notable results for CR included road wins at Honduras, T&T, Jamaica and Mexico! And T&T was a significant underperformer. Let's now take a look at the ratings going into the 2014 Hex 2014 Mex (1894) US (1744) Pan (1668) Hon (1664) CR (1648) Jam (1624) Based on these ratings, this could be a very competitive Hex. The #6 team has a significantly higher rating than in the prior three Hexes. The US's gap over the number #6 team is 120 points. In the prior three Hexes the gap was 320, 331, 232. In this Hex our gap over the #4 and #5 teams is less than 100. In prior Hexes we enjoyed a bigger ratings edge over those teams. Finally, Mexico starts out this Hex with a seemingly much bigger gap over us and the rest of the competition than in the prior three Hexes.