I didn't even say that Italy was better than Mexico. I asked him if he felt that an even-money bet on Venezuela to beat Italy was a good bet. In the end, his painting me as an idiot reflects more on his lack of intelligence than mine.
The latest SPI ratings (which I was referring to in the Venezuela vs Italy post) have Venezuela ahead of Italy. DGreat stated that all those nations ranked ahead of Italy were at least as good if not better, and I asked him if he'd feel good about a bet (I meant an even-money bet) on Venezuela over Italy. In other words, as much as I like to root against Italy, I can't imagine 20 teams more likely to go deep in the World Cup than them.
The key betting question is in which Balotelli Italy will be fielding - the crazy one or the really, really crazy one.
I think it's a toss up. Italy has been pretty bad (by their standards) in these last few years. They're definitely a beatable team for a team like Mexico (or us apparently )
I think this would have been true until the Euros. That team was very different from the one we beat in Genoa. That team was definitely a team Mexico could beat at least 3 times out of 10, maybe 4 on a neutral ground. But the Italy that was at the Euros and in the WCQs so far would not be an even toss up with Mexico. They would beat them at least 8 times out of 10 on a neutral ground.
And Mexico is one of the teams ahead of Italy. I am in no way saying that Mexico is not good. They are good, and while as a USMNT fan I think that the US has a chance to win every time we play them, they are definitely the more talented team at this moment in time. But they are not as good as Italy. They are not even close. They have 2 players that could make Italy's squad, Guardado and Chicharito. And even if you did not originally intend to say that you believed Mexico was at least as good as Italy, you think it, because you said every team ahead of them is at least as good. That is how it became Mexico vs Italy. The following teams are ranked ahead of Italy in that ranking but are not as good as Italy: Mexico Ivory Coast Chile England Uruguay Sweden Japan Venezuela Is that better, now that I'm not singling out Mexico's place as what's wrong with these rankings?
I fail to see how I'm painting you as an idiot. Look, even Mexico had a tough time against Venezuela. We are entitled to an opinion but to say Italy is this unbelievable team is false. Italy is getting through a transition phase and are on the up swing again, Italy's raking will continue to go up.
They all are capable of beating Italy in a one-off. That is not what a ranking system is. If any team that could possibly beat Italy in a one game situation was ahead of them, EVERY team would be ahead of them, even American Samoa or whoever took over their spot as the worst team on the planet. None of those team would be even money to beat them, and are not as good. Of course Mexico can beat Italy. No one ever said they couldn't. But you said in the first post that every team ahead of Italy in these ESPN rankings was at least as good if not better than Italy.
Italy has lost their 2 games going into Euros, went 2-3-1 in the euros (as far as match rankings go), then have been 3-1-1 since. So they're 5-4-4 in their last 13 games. I don't think Italy is as good as you think they are.
They also made the Euro Final and gave Spain the toughest game they've had since the WC 2010 final. They are plenty good.
And they are just as good as italy. At the end of the day these rankings get settled with official matches. They had a great euro but let's face it the WCQ group Italy has is on similar strength as the hex.
0.o Spain put on a clinic that night. That was the best game Spain played in the euros. Losing 4-0 is not giving an opposing team a tough match.
No, Portugal provided that game the round before. Italy looked like shit and got beat 4-0 by spain. Yes, they made the Euros but as I pointed out they did it on a terrible record (PK's = a draw).
He may be referring to the first group-stage match. Italy 1 - Spain 1. I'm confused. What are we trying to resolve here?
I think it has more to do with match ups and styles of play. Slightly weaker Mexican teams have outplayed stronger Italian sides when compared to current squads. Mexico is a team that matches up well against Italy in the sense that we don't have to bunker against them in order to beat them. Argentina is a good match up for the US but not for Mexico. The opposite is true when it comes to Brazil. Honduras is a tough game for Mexico but the US seems to do well against them while Costa Rica has proven to be more than competitive against the US but not Mexico.
Yeah, mixed up the group match and the final. But technically, they did do both of what I said, just not in the same game
perfectly stated. I always found the who would beat who argument ridiculous in terms of who is better. Brazil is better than Mexico, but one would not know that by looking at recent competitive head to head matches. I look at how teams do against the field. There are many teams I would put money on to win a specific head to head, but not to finish ahead in a round robin. Head to Head only matters in a knock out game, which are rare between two specific teams, especially from different confeds. Maybe in 2014, Mexico can finally avoid Argentina and the US can avoid Ghana. Maybe we will see R16 match-ups of US-ARG and Mex-Ghana. That would be interesting.
portugal has lost to russia, and dropped a point to m ireland, so portugal now looks like it's a playoff, as beating russia in portugal is not enough, now with capello as russian manaher
On a good day, Mexico can give anyone a tough go. On a bad day, it can lose to the US B-squad at home.
What is a mistery is how Italy keeps being Germany's "daddy" even when they suck. PS: Very good ranking. People keep over-rating the European teams, when in reality beyond the very Top 3 or 4 the rest are quite beatable. Also matches my prediction for CONMEBOL: Argentina and Colombia qualifying easy, Ecuador the surprise, And Chile & Uruguay still making it but mostly due to inertia (all in all, I think Chile and Uruguay will do better in the WC final than Ecuador due to experience). Also, I think the USA would be evenly matched with Peru right now (they got a killer striker in Claudio Pizarro, and a fearsome SS in Paolo Guerrero), can probably beat Venezuela and Bolivia on neutral ground, but (for all the low ranking), I think Paraguay would still be a tough nut to crack, due to their style.