For some, it's the only tournament that matters. ( ) The quest to unseat FC Buyern Moonchen (sorry Dhajj, but with the Big Ears title come the attacks on your club ) as European champion began with the qualifying rounds in the first week of July. It will all come to an end on Saturday 24 May when the final will be played in Lisbon. Amazingly, this will only be the second time the Portuguese capital has hosted the final of Europe's premier club competition. The other occasion was in 1967 when Celtic smashed two second half goals past Internazionale's vaunted catenaccio defence which brought smiles to those frustrated with Helenio Herrera's negative yet successful tactics of the 1960s. But that match was played at the Nacional do Jamor, that wonderful venue in Oeiras surrounded by beautiful trees with the curious-looking open east end and is often the site of the Portuguese Cup final every Spring. The 2014 final will be played at the Estádio da Luz, home ground to SL Benfica. The stadium has only been in existence since 2003 yet it was the scene of arguably the greatest moment ever in world football.
With the second legs of the Playoff round still to be played the four pots for the group stage draw are yet to be finalized. But we do know some of the clubs that are confirmed to be in certain pots and where others could end up depending on the playoff results. So going into Tuesdays matches here's how things look with the pots. Teams in red are involved in the playoff round. POT 1 Bayern München (GER) FC Barcelona (ESP) Chelsea (ENG) Real Madrid (ESP) Manchester United (ENG) Arsenal (ENG) FC Porto (POR) Benfica (POR) Will go in either Pot 1 or 2 Atlético Madrid (ESP) POT 2 Olympique Lyon (FRA) Shakhtar Donetsk (UKR) AC Milan (ITA) Schalke 04 (GER) Olympique Marseille (FRA) CSKA Moscow (RUS) Paris Saint-Germain (FRA) Will go in either Pot 2 or 3 Juventus (ITA) Zenit St. Petersburg (RUS) Manchester City (ENG) Ajax (HOL) PSV Eindhoven (HOL) POT 3 Borussia Dortmund (GER) FC Basel (SUI) Olympiakos Piraeus (GRE) Galatasaray (TUR) Will go in either Pot 3 or 4 Bayer Leverkusen (GER) FC København (DEN) Napoli (ITA) Fenerbahçe (TUR) Anderlecht (BEL) POT 4 Celtic (SCO) Steaua Bucuresti (ROM) PAOK Thessaloniki (GRE) Viktoria Plzen (CZE) Dinamo Zagreb (CRO) Real Sociedad (ESP) Austria Wien (AUT) Legia Warsaw (POL) Paços de Ferreira (POR) NK Maribor (SLO) Ludogorets Razgrad (BUL) Shakhtyor Karaganda (KAZ) Quite certain I have everything correct regarding clubs that can move up or down the respective pots. Interesting article about the draw I found on yahoo (which actually took it from... goal.com. Yeah, I know. But the article is an interesting read.) http://sports.yahoo.com/news/arsenal-not-pot-1-team-120000753--sow.html
Oh, and keep in mind the [R] in the thread title. Immediately after the playoff matches of Tuesday and Wednesday I'll post updates on how the pots look. I suppose we can still use the 'Other Teams thread' for match chats.
That is an interesting article on co-efficients and how the 5 year period and inclusion of the country coefficient (for 20%) helps some teams stay in pot 1 year after year over teams who are playing better of late. So Arsenal has to qualify to even make the CL and then once it makes it gets in is back in Pot 1 again - way ahead of Man City, Dortmund, Juventus, PSG. One point that is not made at all in the article is how Europa League points can really boost a coefficient. I don't think we'd see two Portuguese teams in Pot 1 but for that, and it also helps our own Atletico Madrid. If I was tweaking the formula I might give CL twice the value of Europa (or at least 150% as much) and then give last season 40% weight, prior season 30%, 3 years ago 20%, 4 years ago 10%. That would still value teams that have enjoyed success over a span of time without keeping down up and coming sides for so long. I might also eliminate the country coefficient but I'd like to keep in place the no two teams from the same country in the same group or in the same first elimination draw.
Updating the pots after Tuesday's playoff results. (Hope I have it all correct.) Teams in red are involved in Wednesday's playoff action. POT 1 Bayern München (GER) FC Barcelona (ESP) Chelsea (ENG) Real Madrid (ESP) Manchester United (ENG) Arsenal (ENG) FC Porto (POR) Benfica (POR) POT 2 Atlético Madrid (ESP) Olympique Lyon (FRA) Shakhtar Donetsk (UKR) AC Milan (ITA) Schalke 04 (GER) Olympique Marseille (FRA) CSKA Moscow (RUS) Paris Saint-Germain (FRA) Will go in either Pot 2 or 3 Juventus (ITA) Zenit St. Petersburg (RUS) Manchester City (ENG) POT 3 Ajax (HOL) PSV Eindhoven (HOL) Borussia Dortmund (GER) FC Basel (SUI) Olympiakos Piraeus (GRE) Galatasaray (TUR) Will go in either Pot 3 or 4 Bayer Leverkusen (GER) FC København (DEN) POT 4 Napoli (ITA) Anderlecht (BEL) Celtic (SCO) Steaua Bucuresti (ROM) Viktoria Plzen (CZE) Real Sociedad (ESP) Austria Wien (AUT) Paços de Ferreira (POR) NK Maribor (SLO) Shakhtyor Karaganda (KAZ)
Actually CL already counts for more points than EL. But there aren't that many teams that do well in the CL consistently . Dortmund, Juve, Milan, Man City etc wouldn't be top seeds even using your formula because they haven't done much in the CL (ie. less than Porto anyway). Also winning the EL the way Porto did to me is more impressive than, say, losing in the round-of-16 in the CL. That said, there is an obvious flaw with the UEFA coefficient (by not putting more weight on recent seasons). But I like it. Makes for some interesting groups. Otherwise the group-stage would be like watching paint dry. Or worse. Like watching Chelsea play without a striker.
CL barely counts for more than EL or else how would Shaktar have been the high point winner in 2009 when we won CL and they won EL - I get that they may have won a couple more games along the way but seriously, no way should the CL winner be statistically less significant than the EL winner, even if that CL winner had more draws and losses on their way to the title? (Shaktar is 13th down): http://www.uefa.com/memberassociations/uefarankings/club/index.html I do agree that an EL winner should have more points than a Rd of 16 CL loser. But as you said it does make for some interesting groups when there are great teams in pots 3 and 4.
Okay, I'm going to take this to the extreme. Looking back over the years, the fewest number of points that a club gained to finish second in their group and advance to the knockout rounds is 7. -- Happened six times. 4 of those had won 2, drawn 1 and lost 3 2 of those had won 1, drawn 4 and lost 1 So let's say a team picks up 7 points in the CL group stage, finishes second in their group to advance to the knockout round, then proceeds to draw every single one of their KO matches, advancing by either the away goals rule or penalties. They then win the final on penalties to lift the Champions League trophy. In the Europa League the eventual winner is unstoppable, winning all six of their group games, then wiping out the competition in the KO rounds winning every single leg home and away as well as winning the final in 90 minutes. Do you still feel the CL winner should not be statistically less significant than the EL winner? If not, then what's the threshold?
They made some changes since 2009.. Now CL teams get 9 bonus points just for reaching the round of 16 (which means, barring getting drawn into the CL group of death, you still haven't beaten any top teams yet if you finished 2nd in your group). In the EL, you have to get through at least 3 KO rounds (which means reach semi finals) just to recover the 9 points that a CL round of 16 team would have earned by getting thru an overrated group. Many people don't notice it but CL is 70% filled with EL-calibre teams. There is only about 8 "special" teams and you don't have to beat any of them to reach the second round. Last season, for e.g., 13 of the top 16 coeffiecient point gainers went through the CL,
I think the CL has gotten tougher and tougher over the last few years. I think we won't see anymore "easy" teams in the R16 anymore.
Not sure I buy this. Theoretically every team that reaches the Round of 16 is of quality. "The real tournament begins now" is what we often hear. But before the Round of 16 draw is conducted there has always been and will probably always be one or two clubs whom everyone hopes to be paired with. Last season it was Celtic and Galatasaray. The year before it was APOEL and Basel. In 2011 it was Copenhagen. I don't see things changing anytime soon, if not ever. The Russian sides are mainly feared because of the travel and weather rather than for the quality of the teams.
Well I say this only because of the mancity, PSG, etc emergence A possible R16 could possibly be this: Barca, Madrid, bayern, bvb, mancity, manU, Chelsea, arsenal, juventus, PSG, Leverkusen, benfica, Porto, etc, etc, etc A little tougher overall R16 then I used to see.
So if I understand correctly, Man City will need Lyon, Milan and Zenit to lose in order to avoid pot #3. (?) No chance of that. Now it will be very interesting to see how Pellegrini and Man City navigate the group stage this time around, while still staying close to Man Utd and Chelsea in the league.
Correct. Juventus look set to move into pot 2 with Lyon on the verge of being dumped out by Real Sociedad. And if that happens, Real would be in pot 4 which means they - along with Napoli - could end up being the team to avoid during the draw (ie. they could be the key to forming the potential 'group of death'). Real advancing would also confirm Leverkusen moving into pot 3. Kopenhagen are as good as gone into pot 4 with Pacos de Ferreira needing a miracle to get past Zenit.
Early kickoff saw Zenit complete their dispatching of Pacos de Ferreira. So Kopenhagen are now confirmed into pot 4 while Manchester City are confirmed into pot 3. Teams in red are involved in Wednesday's playoff action. POT 1 Bayern München (GER) FC Barcelona (ESP) Chelsea (ENG) Real Madrid (ESP) Manchester United (ENG) Arsenal (ENG) FC Porto (POR) Benfica (POR) POT 2 Atlético Madrid (ESP) Olympique Lyon (FRA) Shakhtar Donetsk (UKR) AC Milan (ITA) Schalke 04 (GER) Olympique Marseille (FRA) CSKA Moscow (RUS) Paris Saint-Germain (FRA) Will go in either Pot 2 or 3 Juventus (ITA) Zenit St. Petersburg (RUS) POT 3 Manchester City (ENG) Ajax (HOL) PSV Eindhoven (HOL) Borussia Dortmund (GER) FC Basel (SUI) Olympiakos Piraeus (GRE) Galatasaray (TUR) Will go in either Pot 3 or 4 Bayer Leverkusen (GER) POT 4 FC København (DEN) Napoli (ITA) Anderlecht (BEL) Celtic (SCO) Steaua Bucuresti (ROM) Viktoria Plzen (CZE) Real Sociedad (ESP) Austria Wien (AUT) NK Maribor (SLO) Shakhtyor Karaganda (KAZ)
Yes, even in that extreme example I think that winning the CL is far and away the most glamorous and sought after trophy. and even a club that "won ugly" in your example, or one like Chelsea that seemingly was NOT the best club in England (much less in all of Europe) in the year they won, still deserves more coefficient points than an undefeated EL winner. Frankly, I think UEFA keeps the EL points pretty significant to try to keep teams from fielding less than their best team in the EL (as sometimes happens especially with some clubs that have great ambitions than EL - frankly I think it is a credit to Chelsea that they won last year but of course Mou downplayed that victory under Benitez).
Agreed. But OTOH you have a team like Milan going .500 in a weak CL group last season getting more points than one of the EL semifinalists. When you have to design the formula beforehand there are always going to be extreme examples where it looks flawed in hindsight. Remember too that the main purpose of the UEFA coefficient is to rank leagues, not teams. So you can't make the EL too insignificant otherwise the league rankings will be nothing more than a comparison of each leagues top 2-3 teams.
Oof, too many possibilities for one, maybe even two, Groups of Death with teams like Citeh and BVB in Pot 3 and Napoli in Pot 4...
WITH GAMES NOW OVER group of death would seem PSG or Juventus from Pot 2, ManSee or Dortmund from Pot 3, and Napoli or Sociedad from Pot 4. If you had just 3 of those teams in a draw it would be bad, if you added one of the top Pot 1 teams Bayern, Real, Barca, perhaps Chelsea or ManU it would be truly brutal.
POT 1 Bayern München (GER) FC Barcelona (ESP) Chelsea (ENG) Real Madrid (ESP) Manchester United (ENG) Arsenal (ENG) FC Porto (POR) Benfica (POR) POT 2 Atlético Madrid (ESP) Shakhtar Donetsk (UKR) AC Milan (ITA) Schalke 04 (GER) Olympique Marseille (FRA) CSKA Moscow (RUS) Paris Saint-Germain (FRA) Juventus (ITA) POT 3 Zenit St. Petersburg (RUS) Manchester City (ENG) Ajax (HOL) Borussia Dortmund (GER) FC Basel (SUI) Olympiakos Piraeus (GRE) Galatasaray (TUR) Bayer Leverkusen (GER) POT 4 FC København (DEN) Napoli (ITA) Anderlecht (BEL) Celtic (SCO) Steaua Bucuresti (ROM) Viktoria Plzen (CZE) Real Sociedad (ESP) Austria Wien (AUT)
Too bad LPB can't face Cheslki in the group stages, but if they both go through, it's one of those matchups UEFA will make happen. I'd like to see this group Real Madrid (ESP) Paris Saint-Germain (FRA)/Manchester City (ENG) Borussia Dortmund (GER) Napoli (ITA)
I'd prefer a harder group this year, to keep the team in competitive spirit and give Tata a taste of what exactly he'll be up against during the spring. Last year our main issues, aside from injuries and the coach's situation, were that we had things fairly easy for us, sitting on top of La Liga comfortably for more than half the season and having a straightforward CL group which brought us into a relaxed mode without many tests until we faced Milan and Madrid in the space of a week, something which brought somewhat of a shock to the players. I'd rather we have hard games throughout the year, that way everyone is kept on their toes and has little room for error. A group like this would be nice: Barcelona Juventus Ajax Steaua Bucuresti