Tunisia-Egypt-Qatar Unified Theory Thread

Iranians would have toppled tunisia and egypt combined within hours... you CANT compare IR with tunisia. IR had planned for this for decades and has way more forces. tunisia was caught by surprise.

 

Of course I know that. Nevertheless, it's fact that the protests after the election fraud from 2009 apparently haven't reached their goal of democratic change (unfortunately). Now it's interesting to see whether Mubarak is better prepared than Ben Ali (like you, I doubt he'll be better prepared than the current Iranian regime, though) ... hopefully he's gonna be smart enough to avoid a bloodshed if the protests should turn into a revolution.

Buona notte.

 

Back in March of 2005, in a thread about Lebanon, I said the following:

I have more hope for something good coming out of Tunisia (as it is smaller with no real Islamist political movement) than Egypt (a sprawling country where the main opposition is the Brotherhood). had Mubarak steped down and his son gotten a job in Paris or Frankfurt, things might not have reached this point.


Unfortunately, diplomats prize "stability" over all.

 

I meant I doubt he'll be as well prepared as the Iranian regime.


Btw: It seems that things are turning more & more violently ... so I'm curious whether Mubarak is going to follow Hillary Clinton's advice (apparently, it's too late now).

http://english.aljazeera.net/news/middleeast/2011/01/201112617427113878.html#

 

I don't at all mean to diminish your concern about egypt, which is quite real. No doubt, the brotherhood dudes were hard when bin laden was nothing more than a glimmer in his daddy's fourth wife's eye. Nevertheless, though the muslim brotherhood might be the only organized opposition to the government, I don't suspect the majority or the protesters on the street are looking to them for leadership.

 

Respuesta: Re: Tunisia-Egypt-Qatar Unified Theory Thread

Give me a Jasmine Revolution for Cuba and I'll give you an eternal box of candies.

 

The Muslim Brotherhood is for the most part sitting this one out. I would wager they believe the protests don't have the necessary traction for regime change.

They wouldn't be the only ones running the show anyway.

 

I think it's also worth pointing out that Tunisia, through its links to France, is quite Europeanized. More so than Egypt I think.

 

Looks like we can add Yemen to this, though they've been protesting one thing or another off and on for a while. This time, though, it's focusing on getting rid of the president.

Common link between Tunisia, Egypt and Yemen: 3-decade-long regimes.

 

how ducky for Tunisia.

 

The majority of Iranian protesters in 79 weren't looking to Khomeini for leadership either.

 

yeah, true.

 

Unlike Iran (where I still think the president was correct in keeping out of the internal struggle), I do think it is time to start pushing some buttons here. One big difference is that unlike Iran, we have lots of influence in Egypt. Our aid props up their economy. And with that influence, like Laxalt did with Marcos in 1986, someone needs to get on a plane to Cairo and explain to Mubarak that the gig is up. It is time to announce his retirement and for his son to take a banking job in Paris.

 

though I agree with your conclusion, we did indeed have a lot of influence in Iran in 1979.

 

I am refering to the ability to make Mubarak go. WHat happens after, who knows. But by Mubarak staying longer, he makes it more likely that an obnoxious regime takes over.

 

This. ^

The problem with these type of regimes who refuse to reform (Shah, Mubarak etc) is that they push everyone into a corner, unifying every group in their opposition to the regime. So when the regime finally collapses due to an uprising, and there is a power vacuum as a result. Islamists, by the virtue of their thuggish nature, and better organization through mosques, would easily sweep aside the nationalists, the communists, and the liberals, and take over. This is what happened in post-revolutionary Iran between 1979 and 1981 when Khomeini and gang managed to oust President Banisadr, and solidify the power in the hands of the Islamists.

 

Looks like the Muslim Brotherhood and National Front for Change are getting involved in the demonstrations.

 

One thing I think is virtually certain by now: Mubarak's days are numbered. While he is a man of the military, I don't think he can cling to the power any more. Either we'll get a revolution with an uncertain outcome (everything from a democracy to an islamic fundamentalist dictatorship is in the cards) or the military will crush the protests and install a new leader (like Omar Suleiman, although he might be a little too old already).

 

I wouldn't underestimate the resiliency of Mubarak's regime. Egypt has highly trained riot police and years of practice in dealing with these demonstrations. It's very far from a foregone conclusion that Mubarak is done. It's not as if the Iranian revolution sparked a domino effect that overthrew many Middle Eastern regimes - there's a good chance Mubarak and Egypt continue to plod along for some time.

 

This is truly amazing what's happening in Egypt with the Muslim Brotherhood now stepping into the fray starting Friday.

Mubarek was an Air Chief Marshall in the Air Force. Ben Ali didn't have that kind of background.

But who can predict which way the army and the internal security forces will jump on Friday?

 

Joe Biden has spoken -- Mubarak is NOT a dictator and should not step down.

Also, Egypt, the non-dictatorial country where the leader should not have to resign, has apparently shut off the Internet. I did not realize you could do that. I guess we need to send the South Park kids to turn it back on again.