Betting odds are prone to blind favouritism and not true form. Does anyone truely think Brasil and Argentina are better than Spain and Germany? Pure biased favouritism and a big bonus for the 'continental boost' in my book. Also expect big sides to be higher ranked. A lot more Germans and Brasilians than there are Dutch or Uruguayans. Also lots more English or French with money than Ivorians or Mexicans. Add it all up rankings will be skewed in the favour of the big and wealthy countries plus on assymetric information.
For case in point: USA (or Russia for that matter) has higher ratings at the bookies than Ivory Coast, Croatia or Japan (or Ghana who have beaten USA twice in the last 2 world cups). Honestly people...
Again with this.. these people cannot miss... the odds between US and Ivory Coast are much much much less important than the top (where they HAVE TO PAY OUT) Blind favoritism is when you go against Vegas, they are not your regular bookies... once again, if you can put your money where the conversation is, you get a say on things. Vegas does exactly that. And trust me they are not into losing money. They do not blindly throw their money at competitions like most of us would, they look into the team's history, they look into the competition's history, head to head matchups (recent and old) They go into that nice little formula that's explained in soccernomics about match predictions, they simulate these number 50,000x and from there they take their little odds... Reason their odds don't change daily it's because it take a long time for them to calculate it. And they don't change their odds because a lot more people are betting on it, they just make more money. Or they would never take sure bets like last week Brazil x Iraq. But they do take those bets and still make money off it.
Top ten? 1. Spain 2. Germany 3. Argentina 4. Brazil 5. Netherlands 6. Italy 7. France 8. England ------------ From there, pick 2 of: Portugal, Russia, Croatia, Uruguay, Mexico, Ivory Coast, Ghana, Colombia. Mine: 9. Mexico 10. Portugal
1. Brasil 2. Italy 3. Germany 4. Argentina 5. Uruguay 6. France 7. Spain 8. Holland 9. Egypt 10. Ghana []__[]
I can't see England up that high, what's the thought process in that? I'm just wondering. Not knocking on your list, it's very viable. But for that England (and France) part.
Well, here's my thinking. First on France. Going into the Euro's they had an unbeaten streak of over 20 matches. Pretty impressive. They progressed out of the Group phase at the Euros. They haven't lost to an inferior team in forever, and just drew Spain 1-1 away, despite having a good goal disallowed and dominating much of the second half. Since 2011, France are: 14-6-2 (W-D-L). Wins over Germany away and Brazil. Drew away to Spain. Only losses were 2-0 to Spain at the Euros, 2-0 to Sweden in the final group match at the Euros (where I think some players were held out), and the 1-0 loss to Japan which was played 3 days before the WCQ with Spain (again, hardly the A squad). Really, they've only lost 1 game they went all in to win in the last 2 years, and that to Spain. If that doesn't scream top 10, I don't know what does. Despite being in the teens in ELO and FIFA rank, I think France's recent run of form has been much better than any of the other teams around them (Portugal, Colombia, Uruguay, Russia, Sweden, Croatia, Ivory Coast, Ghana, etc). As for England, I kind of find in curious that you find that so objectionable. ELO has them 6th, FIFA 5th. They rarely lose to a non-power team. They've lost twice this year. 3-2 to the Netherlands at home, and went out on penalties at the Euro's to Italy, whom they have also beaten this year in a friendly. There have been some bumps, but those have mostly been draws (away to Poland, home to Ukraine). This year, they've beaten Italy, Sweden, Belgium, and Norway and drew France. They didn't lose a match in 2011, including wins over Spain and Denmark. Though their were some troubling draws, this is still a team that has lost 1 regulation match in 2 years (13-5-2), and that to the Dutch, and a PK loss to Italy. They have wins over Italy and Spain. Really, I'm surprised anyone can argue about England. It isn't always pretty, I guess, but the results speak for themselves. France, I get (somewhat) if you haven't been playing close attention lately, and the stain of the last WC still lingers (as it should), but England have been solid. Frankly, I think my choice of Portugal may be the one team I'd take back if I could (and going with Colombia or Ivory Coast instead).
Until England starts losing they deserve a spot in the top 10, It's debatable where in the top ten but they definitely deserve to be there. I would have to make a point about one team, Brasil. I'm not sure if they deserve a spot in the top ten. But it's hard to evaluate them as they are the home nation for the world cup, they don't play qualifiers. As we all know, it is tough to evaluate a team based on friendlies. Their performance at the Copa America was less than inspiring. I think we are going to have to wait until the Confeds Cup to truly evaluate them. Personally I see Mexico at #12-14 right now, if they can dominate in the Hex like they did in the semifinals then they will be a #8-9. Then the Confeds Cup will show if they belong at that spot or even higher.
An overrated team does not get those odds before a World Cup, last Cup Brazil was 6:1 and so was the winner Spain
never ceases to amaze how the oddsmakers permanently overate england tornament after tornament. somehow they find themselves ahead of italy yet again. a 4 time world champion just coming off making the final at euro 2012 (where they knocked england out) behind a side that very rarely surpasses the quarterfinal mark.
I would never think of England in TOP5,6 ... nor do Uruguay ... have such chance The absence of France is very unlikely ... they forgot to watch the last game vs Spain!!! They could have beaten Spain no sweat ... with a new trial squad ...
Really? surprised? first you ask how anyone can question England's place in the top ten, then in the same paragraph say you would remove Portugal. Let us do a bit of a comparison shall we? Fabio Grosso started this thread with the top ten in question starting from 2000 to present. Portugal England Euro 2000: Semi's(defeated England) - Group stage knockout WC 2002: group stage knockout - Quarter finals Euro 2004: 2nd place(defeated England) - Quarter finals WC 2006: Semi's(defeated England) - Quarter finals Euro 2008: Quarter finals - did not qualify WC 2010: Round of 16 - Round of 16 Euro 2012 Semi's - Quarter finals I also believe results speak for themselves, so with that in mind I can only come up with 2 possible reasons you can justify England in the top 10 and Portugal not. 1:Biased, very possible because you are in the U.S and you could have English roots or your a fan of the EPL, or just dislike Portugal like most football fans. 2:Qualification and friendlies mean more then the actual tournaments, although that does not fully justify your argument because England failed to make it to Euro 2008 however Portugal recently has made qualifying a needless adventure. I personally put England in my top 10, so that's not my issue. I would however love to hear how in the fu*king world anyone in there right mind can say England is better then Portugal, so please I beg you, tell me why England is better then Portugal? England can honestly not make it past a quarter final until 2048 and they will still be put as a top 5 or 6 favorite for a tournament, biggest mystery since the Voynich manuscript.
Hi, You forgot to put 2 confederations cup won by France 2001 and 2003 And 2 confederations cup won by Brazil in 2005 and 2009 In my opinion Spain is the best but they have to win Confederations Cup next year . Brazil and France got the 3 titles. Regards, Yoni
Yeah like they lot 4-0 to Portugal and 4-1 to Argentina in friendlies, and then lost 3-2 to USA in COnfed 09, and had a sweating tie 1-1 to France recently ? I would say they are ahead of everyteam in term of possession ... and that's true statement
1. Spain (it's not even a question, their dominance in the Euros Final against Italy cemented this current team as one of the best National Teams of All-Time, if not the best) 2. Argentina 3. Italy 4. Brazil 5. Germany 6. England 7. Netherlands 8. Colombia (they are going to surprise a lot of people next World Cup) 9. Portugal 10. Russia
Spain is simply the best no question about that, Colombia is also a team that would not surprise me in the least, they are in amazing form with a lot of talented players. However again we see England being rated above Netherlands and Portugal, this to me has got to be one of the biggest mysteries in sports. I need a logical explanation for this, from anyone. From 2000 on, Netherlands have reached 2 semi's and 1 final, Portugal 3 semi's and 1 final, England 0. Is it based on potential? And if so at what point does "potential" get converted to hype. Is it based on familiar names, which again is a mirage as we have further and further evidence the EPL is not as dominate as it once was. Let me ask anyone who reads this one more question, if Mexico and England played tomorrow who would you bet on? And If England why? I use Mexico as an example because they are not often placed in anyone's top ten, yet if I was a manager I would rather avoid over England.
That's just my personal list and yeah I do base it off potential and their experience together as a team. England defends very well. The EPL is definitely not as dominant as it once was, I think leagues like La Liga and Bundesliga are on par with it. Netherlands looked terrible in the Euros and I thought England looked to be a better team than them currently. Portugal looks to be in shambles right now but still Top 10. As for your question, I would bet England over Mexico right now even though I would have Mexico as 11 on my list actually. I think it would be a close game. After 5 on my list, the rankings could really go either way. Argentina is really gelling together as a team right now. Messi is learning how to lead that team and it seems guys like Aguero, Di Maria, and Higuain are starting to buy in. If they can defend better, it wouldn't shock me to see them win the World Cup in 2014. Italy looked fantastic in the Euros, aside from the Final where they simply just lost to a better team in La Roja. Their dismantling of Germany was very impressive. I can see why anybody would have them as #2. I think Brazil is another team that is starting to gel too. A lot of young and exciting players. You can flip-flop them with Germany in my rankings. Germany is still a Top 5 team, some would argue Top 3 but I have to drop them out of the Top 3 after they lost to Italy in the Euros.
Spain is not the best team in the world they got lucky at the world cup and the euros are overrated competition there is not as strong as copa america. []__[]
Actually they do change their odds if a lot more people are betting a certain way. That's kind of exactly the point, incentivizing people to take the less likely to payoff bet. They make money because they make money off of every bet, not because they "win" more bets than they lose.