Damage control for Rep. Bruce Braley (D-IA), who has issued an apology to Sen. Chuck Grassley after video was leaked of him at a donor event referring to Grassley as "an Iowa farmer who never went to law school". He's not running against Grassley.
I don't know how 538 came up with the NC numbers, but until the GOP primary, 50% is probably the perfect number.
Michelle Nunn trailing likely opponent David Perdue by 5 points, polling very close to other GOP nominees.
So an unknown Democrat that is running on the name of her father is within striking distance of a host of Republicans in a seat that was recently vacated by an incumbent Republican and, considering your history, you think this is a bad thing?
Did you post a link to the poll showing McConnell's approval rating in Kentucky is down to 32% and that he trails Grimes by 4%? Just checking.
I don't follow. Think of it what you will. I’m just the messenger. McConnell’s approval rating has been in the toilet for a while now. Not exactly news for anyone paying attention. However, you don’t necessarily have to be Nate Silver to understand that a poor approval rating for a Republican in Kentucky and one for a Democrat in North Carolina aren’t exactly analogous.
Who cares average voters don't pay attention to this crap or gaffes. Right now none of them know who braley is . even if he had a name on his shirt that said his name people still wouldn't know who he is.
I think the problem he and others have with you is that you just cherrypick whatever poll you find convenient for your narrative. That in and of itself is fine. Frankly we all do that. What makes you annoying is that there's zero acknowledgment that there's a counterpoint to your point. Look. We all know that there's plenty of evidence out there that the GOP has the upperhand today to take over the Senate in November's elections. We also know that there's plenty of evidence that points to the difficult task that that will be. It's a dance, a series of ups and downs of GOP and Dems. You portray it as a straight march to victory. Which is stupid.
I don’t cherrypick polls that fit “my narrative”. I cherrypick polls that are interesting, or reveal to us new information. I didn’t bother posting the Kentucky poll from February because it wasn’t especially noteworthy to anyone who’s really paying attention. A new poll released yesterday showed incumbent Jeff Merkley (D-OR) up by just 7 points against a potential GOP challenger in what would normally be considered a "safe" seat. But I didn't post it because since the primary isn't until May 20, it's not especially relevant. And I still don’t know what “point” or “counterpoint” you’re even talking about, but damn, I’m sorry if I have “annoyed” you by posting a poll that shows a competitive race in the red-leaning state of Georgia. Never have I EVER stated or implied that the GOP will have a straight march to victory in November. No one on earth is saying that. Now because I am saying that they are favored and you don’t like it, that does not make me a partisan. You, like your buddy, are creating a narrative in your brain that does not actually exist. I’m not a fan of either party in actuality, or getting into the minutia of whatever political ping-pong match is currently the flavor of the day, whether it be Obamacare, the debt ceiling, the Keystone pipeline, yada, yada, yada. What really concerns me most are Supreme Court appointments; that’s why I pay so close attention to elections.
You just seem eerily absent when someone posts new and revealing information that runs contrary to the new and revealing info you posted previously. And you seemingly have a propensity to put on ignore ppl that point that out. Plus, it's always one-sided. Be a more balanced poster by posting new and revealing info that shows more of the downs on the right and you'll be taken more seriously.
I put people on ignore who insist on being complete assholes to anyone they disagree with. If you can’t be civil in your disagreement, I don’t have the time or patience to bother with you. Frankly, these kind of people are much to blame for the divisive political climate in our country today. Democrats going absolute bonkers over the Kentucky poll are what Nate Silver refers to as the “hedgehog.” They are happily willing to be ignorant when the narrative suits them. While there have not been very many "downs" on the right, I will certainly post such “downs” when I believe they are relevant.
I find it interesting that the only people who post in any of the "Politics" threads are either Liberals or "Independents". Nobody, and I mean Nobody is a Conservative. Now that's odd! .....everyone voted for O'Bama in '08
What are you talking about? I think it's nice that these independent centrists with no agenda whatsoever give so willingly of their time to help the rest of us remove our ideological blinders. If only we would listen!
There we have it. Here's the thing: your definition of "relevant" belies your "independent centrist" ruse b/c it's straight out of the daily Talking Points spit out by Fox "News" and the right wing media. Just be honest about that.
I already explained to you what my definition of relevant is. But since you clearly view these races through an unabashedly partisan lens, I can guarantee that you are bound to dislike what I post at some point. Which is fine. I will not link every poll I run into. Now if I think it particularly noteworthy or tells us new information, I will. Since I don’t work for a campaign or for a television news source, I don’t have any reason to omit “negative” stories. I have my own personal beliefs, but that has nothing to do with how I view various races. I’m going to suggest reading Nate Silver’s piece that I linked above. He goes into separating what actually matters and what is just “noise.” And FYI, Rothenberg, Cook, Sabato, RCP, and FiveThirtyEight are anything but “right wing media.”
I'm kinda sorta familiar with Nate. I was right there with him in 2010 and now in 2014 regarding the realities of mid-term elections, but thanks for the heads up!
No problem. Also, if you reach your maximum level of tolerance of my posting, please do put me on ignore. No need to drive yourself mad.
Since we're talking 538 here: http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/senate-races-in-2014-lack-good-polling/ It is also important to note that Silver's equations are largely based on voting history this early in the cycle and the current polling only has minimal impact on that. It isn't until after the primaries and into the summer before he starts to rely more heavily on current polling.