I know we've been discussing offseason free agency moves in a couple of different threads, but I figured it might be worthwhile to have a common place to discuss all the offseason free agency moves, trades, and the upcoming draft. to start off with, I must say I'm a little baffled by the 49ers pursuit of Manning. sure, Manning gives them a better chance than Alex Smith to win now, but by not re-signing Smith before they know for sure if they will land Manning, I think they're running a huge risk. what if Smith signs a deal with the Dolphins today or tomorrow? and then Manning ends up deciding on Tennessee or Denver? where will that leave the 9ers? I suppose if Manning goes to Tennessee, they can hope to trade for Hasselbeck, but what if Manning goes to Denver? they're going to trade for Tebow?? with Flynn already off the market, it doesn't give them many options. I think they're running a huge gamble to get Manning, and can potentially blow up a team that was a single play away from going to the SB last season. and this, just when Smith started showing signs of improvement; that he could be the QB the 9ers were hoping for when they drafted him first overall. I think Arizona did the smart thing and re-negotiated with Kolb, when they realized that they couldn't afford to wait on Manning to make a decision. I hate to say it, but with Manning taking so long to make his decision, it's beginning to feel a bit LeBron-esque. ultimately, he will only end up going to one team, so he will leave at least 2 teams very unhappy, and in a bad place in terms of other free agent signings. the Broncos have hardly made any moves a week+ into free agency, because they're waiting on Manning. and even the team he eventually signs with (unless it's the 49ers), will be handicapped to some degree in the free agent market by not having participated (at least not as much as they could have otherwise) earlier. what about the Patriots signing Brandon Lloyd? does that make them the prohibitive favorite in the AFC? - again... they will certainly have a potent offensive team again, but I don't think they've done much to shore up their leaky defense. but they still have the draft to go I suppose.
this just in via twitter: Adam Schefter Peyton Manning called John Elway this morning to tell him he's looking forward to coming to play for him.
that's where he was initially projected a few years back when he was drafted. he hasn't done anything since then to prove either his supporters or his detractors wrong. I'm thinking a 3rd rounder is reasonable.
I don't know about a 2nd, but I'd trade a 3rd round pick for Tebow, especially if I was a florida team like the Fins or the Jags. Even if he doesn't play well, you'll still sell a bunch of tickets. That's not bad value for just a 3rd round pick.
Jacksonville just signed Chad Henne, but I suppose they can trade for Tebow also, and let them compete for the starting job. either the 49ers or the Dolphins are really going to be SOL in this QB game. just not enough good QBs to go around in the NFL.
The Niners have a QB. Alex Smith re-signed, didn't he? Unless someone knows for sure that Tebow is leaving, my thinking is that he may not be going anywhere but the bench. He could be Manning's backup and learn for a season or two, learn about the position from Manning and Elway and come out the better. What's Tebow being paid? His salary might not hurt Denver all that much, I don't know.
last I heard Smith was visiting Miami - no? as far as Tebow learning from Manning, I don't think so. you saw how much the last guy backing up Manning learned from the experience. Manning is all about winning and studying the offense and getting better himself. he has neither the time nor the inclination to teach another person.
For whatever reason, players traded seem to have very little value for picks as a draft gets close. Many a good player gets traded for a 5th or 6th round pick(s). Usually you don't see premium picks get traded for a player near the draft.
that's true. and it has always baffled me, given just how much of a crap shoot the draft seems to be. but I guess it just goes to show the self confidence (arrogance?) coaches and GMs have - they always think they have a great player with every draft pick. it would seem to make more sense to go with a proven talent - even if he doesn't quite live up to the talent where he was initially drafted.
I thought you just said a few posts ago that SF re-signed Smith. I see now that your post was a hypo. Sorry. I wasn't thinking in terms of actual tutelage, but watching from up close and paying attention. Sorgi had that opportunity, but he isn't as good as Tebow might turn out to be, so he may well have taken that opportunity AFAWK. Tebow could probably get better sharing a locker and film-watching time with Manning for a season that he'd get on his own unless he went somewhere with a great OC.
I just saw Peter King tweeted that Smith is serious about the Dolphins, so there's that. 49ers could really be SOL if that happens. as for Tebow, I think he thinks he's a starter, and wants to go somewhere where he at least has the chance to compete for the starting spot. I suppose Tebow could learn by watching Manning, but their games are so different, I just don't know how much Tebow could actually learn, assuming he even understood what Manning was thinking and doing.
http://espn.go.com/blog/nflnation/post/_/id/55655/broncos-could-now-target-steelers-wallace If the Broncos get targets like Wallace and Clark, they could overnight become scary good. I really like Demaryius Thomas, who gives you a big fast target, but if you add in someone who can work the middle of the field as well as a deep threat to stretch the defense, now you can scheme all of those crazy combination routes that Peyton used at Indy and just carve up the defense. Plus, the Colts had a terrible run game, but Denver has a better run game. People think that Denver's line isn't good at pass protection, but if they can get the run going, Peyton is so good at play action your pass blocking doesn't need to be that great.
now the speculation begins on where Tebow goes. one thing is for sure, wherever he goes, he brings the circus. the guy is such a unique talent, virtually any team he goes to, will have to tailor their offense around him - which means he will have to be the starter, as it wouldn't make sense to run a conventional offense with Tebow as the backup, because he wouldn't be able to run a conventional offense should the starting QB go down.
That's a bad situation for any team to be in other than the team that initially drafted him. Do you start Tebow, hand him the ball, say, "win" and draft a backup with similar abilities? Why can't Tebow learn to run a conventional offense? I mean, he's not going to run it as well as a true NFL starter, but he can learn it well enough to be at least a backup. Otherwise, every team he goes to from here on out will have to do things his way. He's not good enough to demand that from anyone but the lottery picks, and they're getting better talent than him.
One writer suggested joining Philly as the backup, but I don't think that would work well. Yes, Tebow is a lefty who can run like Vick, but the Eagles run a west coast system based on precisely timed passes. Tebow has a long delivery and struggles with accuracy on shorter passes, so while he could execute the zone read type plays they have with McCoy, he probably would struggle picking up the rest of the playbook. How about the Packers? Now that Flynn is gone, who is the backup QB for Green Bay? Being the Packer backup seems to be a great resume builder these days.
yeah, but if he's the backup, even assuming he can learn to run a conventional offense well enough to be the starter, then the organization has the Tebow crazies to worry about, who are constantly going to be calling for him to start. and if they do give him a few starts, and he flops, then they'll be calling for the severed heads of the OC and HC because they're holding Timmy back! ugh, trust me, I've seen it here in Denver.
the Packers might work - just because they have an established QB who wouldn't be called on to be benched by even the Tebow crazies even if he struggles a bit. Tebow really needs a good QB coach to work with him on his mechanics for a year or two. but then if Rodgers goes down and Tebow has to step in - would he be able to execute the offense? that's the risk with Tebow - besides the circus coming to town.
Hines Ward retired today. I don't think he is a Hall of Famer, but for a 3rd round guy who wasn't even a definite #1 receiver type coming out of college and started out playing special teams, he had quite a career. One thing I liked about Ward was similar to Favre, he often looked like he had fun on the field when he was playing.
What is it about Bowlen, Fox and Elway that has them turning control of an offense over to a bunch of religion-crazed seatwarmers? Those tickets can be sold to thinking people and the show returned to normalcy. I know how to ignore somebody who doesn't know jack about football- surely an owner, coach and GM have that ability. God Bless Hines Ward and God Bless The Pittsburgh Steelers. I think he has a reasonable shot to go Hall. Maybe seven, eight years into his eligibility, depending on who else retires in that span.
I think they do have the intestinal fortitude to do what they think is best for the organization, despite the fan pressure, but I don't think you can say they are not influenced by the fans to some degree. when they made a decision to start Tebow, it was basically because Orton was playing so badly, not because fans were calling for Tebow. but the fan pressure can wear on you after a while, I think.
Yes, it was really McDaniels who put the Broncos in that situation. Fox played the cards that were dealt to him and he had Tebow as his 3rd string QB, but when your starter plays poorly and your 2nd string guy is Brady Quinn (again, a McDaniels move), you don't have many good alternatives. They didn't expect Tebow to play well (and for the most part he didn't), but the team kept winning in crazy ways and that train just kept on going all the way to the divisional round of the playoffs. In the end, it looks like it will work out for the team leadership, because they get to dump a QB they apparently don't really like while his stock is at a high point and he still has some trade value, and they landed a hall of fame QB who unexpectedly landed in their lap, which almost never happens in the NFL. Can we get Tebow and Jeremy Lin in the same city? I want to see a reality show where those two are roomates