Female manatees usually start breeding after the age of 7. Yeah, this might have been a bit of topic, but as far as information goes, it's certainly more definite and relevant.
What can I say, I'm a nasty person . But I really don't see the point in that post. All the problem I see with the new set-up are long term effects. As just one third of the first season of the new set-up is over, there's no way to see those. And what did people expect from the reserve sides? I don't think even a single one will be promoted to 3. Liga this season. There are still clubs in there that absolutely must (in order to survive - and sooner or later they will) get into 3. Liga (Kiel, Magdeburg, Essen, Waldhof). In the long run, there will be about 5 reserve sides in average in the 3. Liga at most (sometimes one or two more, sometimes one or two less), and there won't be much more reserve sides in the Regionalliga (although the number won't significantly decrease either). There just aren't that many pro teams that can finance a competitive 3. Liga or Regionalliga side. Only a handful for 3. Liga (those already there, plus a select few not yet) - and those clubs who could at least have a reserve side in the RL are mostly already there, except for Hoffenheim, the already mentioned NRW clubs and maybe St. Pauli. Kiel II (if Kiel I gets into 3. Liga) and Braunschweig II are also likely promotion candidates, but those won't stay in RL more than one or two seasons in a row [interestingly, those are exactly the reserves doing pretty good so far in the OL]. I don't think anyone expected Haching II or Fürth II to be anything else than bottom feeders... I know some people predicted the leagues to be flooded with reserve sides, but that is ignoring the economic realities. This might change in the future though. If the gap widens I wouldn't be surprised if in 10 years or so even a 2. Liga bottom feeder will be able to get his reserves into the RL. However, that's little more than specualtion so far. People keep saying that reserves don't dominate their leagues, which no one should have expected. The pronblem is that they are there, plain and simple. If Bayern II wins 3. Liga, it's not the 2nd place, or 3rd placed team that suffers most, it's the one in 18th place. If Bayern II finishs 17th 3. Liga, it's not the 2nd place, or 3rd placed team that suffers most, it's the one in 18th place as well. And so on. Then there's the general negative effect of reserve sides (attendance, media interest etc.), but no need to get into details here. And: at the moment a team like Essen still has enough to compete on the top of the RL. The question is what happens when a team of that size fails to get promoted 3 or 4 years in a row - that will be interesting. Finally: it's a bit early for predicitons yet - I for one thing Werder II won't be relegated (leaving the number of reserve sides at exactly 3 in next year's 3. Liga), their defense is horrible so far, but I think there will be at least 3 teams they can leave behind. It's equally ratly to make predictions for the RL - Cottbus II looks awful (had a very slow start last year as well, though), and Fürth II and Haching II are likely relegation candidates as well, everyone else is still not in much trouble. But those are pretty minor points right now. So yeah, I just don't think that post was relevant to the discusssion.
I thought his opinion was well thought out and well-expressed. I don't see how it wasn't relevant. If you read again, he wasn't making full predictions. He started his message with this: "It might be a bit early to call any long-lasting effects of the new set-up on German football, but we can look at the current situation: He ended his message with this: "Obviously, it's a bit early to say anything for certain, but at least for now it looks like the number of 2nd teams in the RL will be less dramatic next year than it is now. It also doesn't look like the other RL clubs aren't competitive anymore, though obviously this is just a short-term observation, in particular I have no idea how the clubs are doing financially." From what I saw, he wasn't making declarations, but simply stating what he sees to this point and what COULD happen. He didn't claim to know what would happen. Dude, it looked to me that you were just really annoyed that his opinion didn't jibe with yours and you dismissed his entire message. I get that you are passionate about this subject, but this subject is the first time I've seen you really go at people you don't agree with. I thought your response to him was a bit nasty. I was surprised by it. Trust me, I'm definitely not here trying to pretend to be some "Angel of Peace". I know there aren't many here nastier than me when I'm triggered. You make your points very well, but I thought that initial cold dismissal was particularly nasty man.
I think you're right concerning my previous post - I didn't really intend it to sound that way, but I can see how it appeared differently. I'm just annoyed by the whole football thing at the moment and I thought that that post totally missed the problem - but it wasn't really meant as a personal attack. So, sorry Cirdan if it looked that way. And yeah, what he wrote is right - and the predictions are valid, of course. And while I don't agree with all of them, they aren't unrealistic. My problem was that I think the discussion of the on the field performance of reserve sides usually deflects from what I think to be the true problem. And as I have read some truely idiotic stuff in football forums lately (note: not here - or even BS specifically, some German language forums mostly) I guess I overreacted.
I am not so sure, Werder II is in general an U19 side added with some experienced players (Oehrl 22, Holsing 25, Stallbaum 27, Pellatz 22). They are by far the youngest team in the league and some real hot prospects like Testroet or Austrian national player Harnik sadly suffered by injuries. If the team gets relegated it´s no breakdown, some good players will leave, but that happens every season, because only 3 players older than 23 are allowed to play for reserve sides.
I don't know how it looks in the other Regionalligas right now, but in the RL Nord the first two clubs, Wilhelmshaven (currently 5th) and Altona (currently 12) will most likely be voluntarily relegated at the end of the season. Altona's president has already stated this in an interview, and Wilhelmshaven has no stadium right now (they played in Wilhelmshaven's city owned stadium, but terminated the contract with the city during the current winter break because they can't afford the rent anymore (their average attendance is actually less than in the old Oberliga, while the salaries of the players are higher) and according to reports it seems likely that the club will either fold or go amateur at the end of the season.
I don't see this happening anytime soon - definitely not within the next decade or so. Clubs have a hard time financing play in a nationwide 3rd division already. Update: as it seems right now Wilhelmshaven will probably finish the season in their old stadium - the city will allow them to play there if they pay their debts to the city. The DFB has postponed the decision concerning the reduction of the TV money for RL clubs, following massive protests from the RL clubs. And Waldhof Mannheim, once again, seems to be close to bankruptcy.
Before he suddenly found his love for his hometown club Hopp also wanted to take over Waldhof Mannheim. He later still gave money to the club (some of it in relation to the stadium deal with Mannheim were Hoffenheim played the first half of the Bundesliga season). There are also some conspiracy theories from Mannheim fans here surrounding this - and Mannheim's president claimed in an interview last month that Hopp wants to destroy Waldhof and that he is out to get him personally or something like this. Anyway, taking money from Hopp is the worst thing that could happen to the club. They need to restart - Hessen Kassel would be a good model here.
Dude, all that "he wants to destroy us crap " is bullshit. It is common knowledge he gave them money not long ago to keep them afloat. If he wanted to "destroy" Waldhof, they would be f#cking destroyed already. They probably would already be bankrupt not only without the two cash infusions Hopp gave them, but also had Hopp chosen to play Hoffenheim's home matches elsewhere even though Mannheim made the most sense. I remember one Waldhof fool buddy of mine claiming that Hopp would rather put a temporary field in the Hockenheim Ring rather than help Waldhof by paying them rent for the Carl-Benz Stadion. I'd heard the first clubs Hopp discussed taking over were Waldhof (infastructure already in place, just needed renovating) and SV Sandhausen. From what I know, Waldhof resisted and Hopp didn't choose SV Sandhausen because there was nowhere to build the stadium and training facilities in Heidelberg. Easier said than done. They took money from Hopp already to survive. Perhaps that Waldhof president is talking such bullshit to keep his job. Perhaps Hopp might take over the club and put his ass out on the street.........
He already stepped down voluntarily anyway (Waldhof president of course wasn't his actual job - he is running a law firm, I think). And it's extremely easy actually - if the club goes bankrupt it's irrelevant what happened before, and they would restart completely free of debts. As I said, Hessen Kassel did this - bankruptcy in 1998, restart at the lowest level and multiple promotions in a row back into professional football. Much better then losing it's independence to Hopp, or any other big sponsor.
Yeah, I guess so, but don't tell the others I admitted that. I'm working on my "almsot omniscient wise man" image over there on the NSR board .
LOL, while I'm a regular on the NSR board as well, I'm willing to file this under the "almost" part...
Thanks, I really appreciate this. Still seems as if we have a first doubter here, but I'll just ignore that .
So, now that we're well into the last quarter of the season I thought it's time for an update. 3 teams will definitely not get a RL license for next year so far (Sachsen Leipzig, Altona 93, Großbardorf). Here's a summary of all promotion and relegation candidates this season, I took into account license issues for 2009/2010. At the moment it looks like the number of reserve teams will roughly stay the same: Reserve teams in 2009/2010: 3. Liga: 3 (realistic best case scenario) or 4 (currently 3) Regionalliga: likely 20-22 (currently 22), 19 or 23 are still possible (18 and 24 doesn't seem likely) Details: 0) Relegation 3. Liga: Possible relegation into RL Nord: Werder II are in deep trouble (5 points behind), CZ Jena are still in danger as well Possible relegation into RL West: only Wuppertal is in danger, currently 2 points above a relegation spot Possible relegation into RL Süd: Stuttgarter Kickers are in deep trouble as well, still in danger: Aalen, Burghausen, Regensburg 1) RL Nord Reserve teams 2008/2009: 6 Promoted to 3. Liga: Holstein Kiel have the best shot, outside chances for Halle and Babelsberg Definitely relegated so far: Sachsen Leipzig, Altona 93 (both without license for 2010) Reserve teams relegated: likely 1 (Energie Cottbus), of the other teams only HSV II are still in danger but have a 5 points lead over the relegation spots (if more than 4 teams get relegated this season this would change, though) Promoted into RL Nord: - From Hamburg (0-1, play off with Bremen and SH): Victoria Hamburg, Bergedorf 85, and St. Pauli II have applied for a license - From Schleswig-Holstein (0-1, see Hamburg): Only Holstein Kiel II applied for a license - From Bremen (0-1, see Hamburg): Only Werder Bremmen III has applied for a license - From Niedersachsen (two groups with 1 promotion spot between them): three teams have applied for a RL license (Meppen, Oldenburg, Goslar) - the promotion play-off will almost guaranteed to be Oldenburg - Goslar, but Goslar's RL license is still questionable (they will definitely have to ply in another city, but haven't found a suitable stadium yet. Currently there are negotiations to play in Braunschweig) - Braunschweig II would be the only team that could replace Goslar in the promption play off (no license for everyone else in the East group), but would probably decline this year - From Nordost (2): definitely promoted are TeBe Berlin, second promotion spot: Auerbach, Meuselwitz or Lok Leipzig If everything stays the same: 6 or 7 (play off) reserve teams in 2009/2010 2) RL West: Reserve teams 2008/2009: 8 Promoted to 3. Liga: likely Dormund II, Kaiserslautern II or Köln II (everyone else is at least 12 points behind right now) Relegated: currently Cloppenburg, Kleve and Worms - Bochum II and Schalke II are still in danger (everyone else is at least 11 points above the relegation spots) Promoted into RL West: - From Südwest: Saarbrücken are definitely promoted (unless they don't get a license, but that seems unlikely) - From NRW: very likely Düsseldorf II and Bonner SC (Aachen II, Bielefeld II, and Westfalia Herne with outside chances) If everything stays the same: 8 reserve teams in 2009/2010, worst case scenario is 9 reserve teams, 6 would be the best case scenario but doesn't seem likely 3) RL Süd: Reserve teams 2008/2009: 8 Promoted to 3. Liga: likely Kassel or Heidenheim Relegated: Großbardorf without license for 2010, Unterhaching II are almost done, various teams still in danger (among them two reserve teams, KSC II and Freiburg II) Promoted into RL Süd: - From Baden-Württemberg: Großaspach or Hoffenheim II - From Hessen: definitely Bayern Alzenau, no other club applied for a license - From Bayern: likely SpVgg Weiden if they get a license If everything stays the same: 6 reserve teams in 2009/2010, (very unlikely) worst case scenario is 8 reserve teams
Little add: Werder III can´t get promoted to 4th division, if Werder II gets relegated to 4th division, because it is not allowed, that two teams of the same club play in the same league.
I'd be very surprised if Werder would actually get their 3rd team into the Regionalliga - it seems more likely that they would decline to participate in the play-off. There aren't individual licenses for the sepearte teams of a club, so Werder applied for both a 3. Liga and Regionalliga license for their second team - as they will get both of course the RL license would automatically be valid for Werder III as well if Werder II doesn't get relegated. I think the most likely scenario is that only two teams will play-off for the Bremen/Hamburg/Schleswig-Holstein promotion spot (or that, if Holstein Kiel doesn't win promotion and Kiel II can't be promoted because of this then, the Hamburg team will get promoted without a play-off).
I'm from London and I seriously can't believe there is any debate on this. Reserve sides are bad for club football and are no better for player development than loaning players out to 3. liga teams. Germany is already hindered by having a small top division and second division (There are 44 teams in England's top two, 42 in Italy, 40 in Spain). Despite having by far the largest popopulation in Europe. So the distribution of teams isn't as fair. So they make it even more unfair by having reserve sides take up places. Toni Kroos et al would've been loaned out to get their experience and would've been involved in "real" games, with real supporters where every point matters to the team your playing for and its opposition. Rather than for reserve teams where the points only matter to the opposition and by all accounts the atmosphere and interest from fans isn't there. The alternative is proven to work and the development of football is being hindered, so i say get rid of the reserve teams, put them in a reserve league like in England and eslewhere and loan your best youth products out to get experience, better still play them in the first team!!
Updates: - Promotion to RL Nord: Victoria Hamburg backed out from their license application - if Holstein Kiel manages promotion into the 3. Liga the play-off for RL promotion is sure to be Bergedorf - Holstein Kiel II (with Werder III declining to take part, I haven't seen it announced anywhere, but I'm still thinking that's the most likely outcome), if Holstein Kiel doesn't win the RL Nord Bergedorf has secured promotion. - Goslar got a provisional license. It's been agreed that they will play the 2009/2010 season in Braunschweig in case of promotion, so the promotion play-off will be Oldenburg-Goslar. - Relegation RL West: Schalke "forgot" to apply for a Oberliga license. If Schalke II gets relagted they will have to go down to the 6th division instead (which probably means Schalke will send a few pros down to make sure they stay up).