I am veryy sad kashima wont win the league this season ='( after the WC break they have been horrible tieing or losing most of thier games,with only a couple of wins.I didnt think the leaving of Uchida would affect them so much.even tho there is like 9 or 10 games left,but Nagoya already ran away with the league they wont be stoped.they will be champions.what are your feelings of kashima this season ?
I don't think that Antlers have done anything different compared to their last 3 seasons. They are still very consistent, the difference this season is that there is a team that isnt losing winnable games. In the past seasons I'm more inclined to say that the title competitors lost the league rather than Antlers winning it. Kawasaki, Shimizu, Gamba all lost the league because they lost winnable matches. Antlers have done nothing wrong this season; Grampus just hasn't lost any matches that they should have won.
Kashima Antlers - Danilo - Tashiro - Uchida + Lee Jung-soo - Lee Jung-soo + one more year for already old players + Felimeh Gabriel = They're still the best team in the league IMO but they seriously need some fresh blood. You can't expect to win the league with only Koroki, Marquinhos et the completely unproven Osako upfront. Plus, I don't understand why Felipe would start over Yasushi Endo or Motoyama.
good points.I dont think Nagoya will lose any matches they shouldnt,they will continue thier incredible streak.
The numbers certainly dont agree with you. The last three seasons the Antlers have averaged 20 wins per season. To reach that average this year, they would have to have a perfect record in every match for the remainder of the season. That aint gonna happen.... and thats the reason why they arent in the race this year Really, if you look at the numbers its clear that the title chase is very different this season from in the past. Its not that Nagoya is doing such a great job (though its true they have managed quite a few wins with late-minute heroics). The reason theyre so far out in front is that nobody else has been performing anywhere near as well as usual. Normally at this time of year there are at least 3-4 teams with 15 wins. This year there is only one (Yup). Its within the realm of possibility, but I still dont think that Nagoya will match the 72 points Kashima won the title with in 2008. Or for that matter, even the 70 points Urawa got for second place. The jury's still out on whether they can surpass the 68 earned by third-place Gamba. PS : (Beware the possible sockpuppet from Dizzyworld)
Does this imply anything else? Does the lack of a select dominant group suggest an overall strengthening of the top tier/spread of talent throughout the league? Or does it have anything to do with transfers of top J-League to other continents? Would be interesting to hear your opinions.
I think there are a lot of factors involved, including the loss of talent to Europe, and greater parity in the league. But for me, there is one that overrides all the others. And though I admit I have a bit of an obsession with this issue, I also honestly believe that the facts are proving my point. Hint: What do Kashima, Kawasaki, Osaka and Hiroshima have in common, but Nagoya does not?
Matsu, for all these clubs ACL have ended in either April or May and both Antlers and Frontale have dropped long since – they were in the race even after the World Cup. Though there may be some issues about general fatigue, really, do six (or seven, in Antlers' case) matches make such a big difference? By the way, Grampus have played the same six games in the group stage of Nabisco; not exactly the match in intensity but still narrows the inequality. Also, S-Pulse have dropped without any Champions League – how to explain this?
SPulse have NEVER been able to stay in the race, so its not a pertinent question. The others teams, however, usually do. And youre far underestimating the impact of what those contests do to a team. The impact doesnt end the second they play their final ACL match The Antlers, its true, were in the race until summer. But they couldnt get through the summer because their older players were too fatigued by the summer, and couldnt keep up the effort in July and August. Plus dont forget that Lee Jung-Soo would still be in the team if it werent for the ACL (which is where Al-Hilal scouted him). Motoyama was hurt in an ACL match and hasnt been the same since. Even now, in October, that impact is hurting the team Frontale, on the contrary, were NOT in the race until summer. They started off slow, made a run after the ACL was over, and ALMOST caught up to the leaders. But it turned out to be too big a challenge. Eariler in the year they had to play without Kengo, Juninho and breifly without Renatinho as well - all directly due to ACL-related injuries. Gamba, meanwhile, have basically been matching Nagoya's pace since July. The only problem is that they were so far behind by the WC break that it was too late for them to catch up. Same is true of Sanfrecce, though they havent been as impressive as Gamba since the summer. In both cases, the ACL ruined their start to the season and took them out of the race before it even started. But why stop there? In Korea, most ACL teams are struggling for the same reason. In Australia, which has been the most consistent cheerleader for the ACL up to now, teams are starting to question the value of taking part, because it ruins their end-season efforts. Ive seen several articles where coaches have said quite specifically "Taking part in the ACL is a double-edged sword -- it boosts your profile and stimulates fan interest, but it hurts your league performance".
Im sorry, but this isnt true. In 2009: 1 team with 15 or more wins ( Kashima with 15) In 2008: 1 team with 15 or more wins ( Nagoya with 15, Kashima with 12) In 2007: 2 teams with 15 or more wins ( Urawa with 16, Gamba with 15, Kashima with 13) In 2006: 2 teams with 15 or more wins ( Gamba and Urawa with 17, Kashima with 14) In 2005: 0 teams with 15 or more wins ( Gamba and Kashima best with 14) This certainly doesnt average 3-4 teams with 15 wins or more at this stage of the season (after 25 matches) . Actually its 1,2 teams pr season, which is pretty close to what we are seeing this year with Nagoya. And to take the title contenders and how they have done after 25 matches: Gamba have 43 points this year; 2009: 42 points / 2008: 43 points Frontale have 41 points this year: 2009: 43 points / 2008: 41 points Shimizu have 41 points this year: 2009: 43 points / 2008: 41 points Nagoya have 54 points this year: 2009: 35 points / 2008: 48 points Kashima have 45 points this year: 2009: 50 points / 2008: 43 points
J1 League table: Sep 27, 2009 1 Kashima Antlers 50 26 15 5 6 37 25 +12 2 Shimizu S-Pulse 49 27 13 10 4 41 27 +14 3 Gamba Osaka 46 27 14 4 9 47 35 +12 4 Sanfrecce Hiroshima 44 27 12 8 7 44 33 +11 5 Albirex Niigata 43 27 11 10 6 38 26 +12 6 Kawasaki Frontale 43 26 12 7 7 42 31 +11 7 Nagoya Grampus 41 27 12 5 10 38 35 +3 8 F.C.Tokyo 40 27 12 4 11 36 33 +3 9 Urawa Reds 40 27 12 4 11 35 35 +0 10 Yokoham･Marinos 37 27 9 10 8 36 30 +6 11 Kyoto Sanga F.C. 35 27 10 5 12 29 35 -6 12 Jubilo Iwata 35 27 10 5 12 42 49 -7 13 Omiya Ardija 33 27 8 9 10 32 37 -5 14 Vissel Kobe 33 27 9 6 12 35 41 -6 15 Montedio Yamagata 30 27 8 6 13 30 36 -6 16 Kashiwa Reysol 27 27 5 12 10 31 46 -15 17 JEF United Chiba 23 27 4 11 12 26 41 -15 18 Oita Trinita 15 27 4 3 20 17 41 -24 J1 League table: October 2, 2008 Team Pts GP W D L GF GA GD 1 Kashima Antlers 50 28 14 8 6 49 26 +23 2 Nagoya Grampus 50 28 15 5 8 41 30 +11 3 Kawasaki Frontale 48 28 14 6 8 51 37 +14 4 Oita Trinita 48 28 14 6 8 30 22 +8 5 Urawa Reds 47 28 13 8 7 45 31 +14 6 F.C.Tokyo 45 28 13 6 9 40 37 +3 7 Gamba Osaka 44 28 12 8 8 39 35 +4 8 Shimizu S-Pulse 40 28 11 7 10 37 36 +1 9 Vissel Kobe 37 28 9 10 9 34 31 +3 10 Kashiwa Reysol 36 28 10 6 12 38 36 +2 11 Kyoto Sanga F.C. 36 28 10 6 12 29 36 -7 12 Albirex Niigata 36 28 10 6 12 27 40 -13 13 Yokohama F･Marinos 35 28 9 8 11 28 27 +1 14 JEF United Chiba 33 28 9 6 13 29 43 -14 15 Jubilo Iwata 32 28 9 5 14 35 41 -6 16 Tokyo Verdy 32 28 9 5 14 36 43 -7 17 Omiya Ardija 32 28 9 5 14 28 39 -11 18 Consadole Sapporo 17 28 4 5 19 32 58 -26 J1 League Table: September 29, 2007 1 Urawa Reds 61 27 18 7 2 48 22 +26 2 Gamba Osaka 55 27 16 7 4 57 29 +28 3 Kashima Antlers 51 27 15 6 6 43 31 +12 4 Shimizu S-Pulse 47 27 14 5 8 40 29 +11 5 Kashiwa Reysol 46 27 13 7 7 37 22 +15 6 YokohamaMarinos 42 27 12 6 9 46 25 +21 7 Albirex Niigata 41 27 12 5 10 39 38 +1 8 Jubilo Iwata 41 27 13 2 12 46 47 -1 9 Kawasaki Frontale 37 27 9 10 8 46 42 +4 10 JEF United Chiba 37 27 11 4 12 42 41 +1 11 Nagoya Grampus 36 27 11 3 13 38 40 -2 12 Vissel Kobe 35 27 10 5 12 44 41 +3 13 F.C.Tokyo 35 27 11 2 14 42 45 -3 14 Oita Trinita 29 27 8 5 14 33 50 -17 15 Sanfrecce Hiroshima 29 27 8 5 14 38 58 -20 16 Ventforet Kofu 25 27 7 4 16 30 51 -21 17 Omiya Ardija 24 27 5 9 13 18 35 -17 18 Yokohama FC 11 27 3 2 22 17 58 -41 Perhaps my comments would have been more PRECISELY accurate if I had said 14 instead of 15 . . . . but the fact remains that 3-5 teams each with 14-16 wins is hugely different from one team with 17 wins and four teams with 12. Having said that, WTF are you trying to prove? That you have far too much time on your hands and have such a severe case of panty twist-itis that you are willing to spend an hour looking up data in order to "prove me wrong" ? Obviously, my comment was a general one, and a careful check of the data proves it to be quite accurate in the generalities it expressed, even if not in the specifics of the number "15". Was there some big "PAYOFF" you expected to receive by carefully looking up all the data and demonstrating conclusively, in specifically calculated terms, that I was incorrect by using the number 15, rather than 14 ????? Jeesus H. man . . . . Get a life.
Im not trying to prove anything. I just thought it was an interesting theory you came up with, and I had the same impression myself, so I decided to take a quick peek at the table the last couple of seasons to see if it actually was the case. This is something I do more or less every weekend anyway as a part of my job, so its not an attempt at "nit-pick" or the case of me having way too much time on my hands. And it took me 5 mins, not 1 hour ( u should try out www.nifs.no for statistics btw, its the best there is, although for Japan only dates back to 2003) And on the tables u are listing up the teams have played either 27 or 28 matches, which is a totally different case than 25, which is what the teams have played so far this season. This season is different from most of the others, cause of the WC-break, so u can't really look at the dates, u have to look at how many matches have actually been played. And no, i dont think the original generalization is correct still, because even if we go by 14 wins its only one occasion (2006) that we've had more than 2 teams with more 14 wins at 25 matches, with Gamba, Urawa and Kashima. I find this interesting, because atleast in the 3 last seasons, we can see that the league-winner have had a very strong finish ( last season Kashima ended the season with 6 straight wins, in 2008 3 straight wins, in 2007 a whopping 9 consecutive wins), which stands in contrast to how poor Gamba and Urawa finished their seasons in 2005 and 2006, but still managed to win the title. I like statistics, so thats why i check things like this. So this was meant as what I find as an interesting addition to the statistic u already put down, as well as a slight correction especially on the comment about it being 3-4 teams that usually stands out. So although we now have a 9 point gap between Nagoya and Kashima, with only 9 games left, I still think its possible for the latter to catch up on them. If Nagoya were to draw 3 matches, and Kashima win the same 3, the gap would suddenly only be 3 points, and keep in mind that Nagoya are playing Kashima away as well in November. Looking at Nagoya's remaing schedule, they got 4-5 difficult matches left, which I dont think they will be able to win all of. And if they lose once, then maybe the team will start to lose confidence and get nervous, and then we suddenly have a Nagoya in big trouble, and with Kashima's experience in title run-ins as well I dont think anything is settled yet. I certainly dont hope Kashima will win though, but I still feel it is a bit too early to call Nagoya champions or to write off the others completely. As for the others team I'm of course hoping for Cerezo still, but I will be happy if they can just stay within the top 3 and clinch an ACL-spot.
What he wrote below is what he is trying to prove. Gamba, no difference. Frontale, no difference. Shimizu, no difference. Kashima, lower than 2009 but pretty much the same as 2008. Nagoya, much higher than previous years. No one cares how many wins they got. They care about the points. If the stat above is accurate, then what you said below is not. Therefore, what SamuraiBlue2002 first said is not wrong. That is the logic I got out of that. Maybe you see it differently and have a different pov.
Thats actually a legitimate point - the first paragraph not the second. I didnt take the time to count matches, I merely said "At this time of year . . . ." And thats how I remember title chases. I recall what the situations was like at the start of October every year. You might have noticed that I write articles about the J.League... .... and for that reason I tend to develop a pretty clear memory of what the situation was like on (for example) the first weekend of October every year. Based on those recollections my comment was pretty accurate (in fact, if I was simply trying to prove a point I could make it even MORE accurate by using the exact date that I posted the comment. Instead I was using the date when the last match was played this year - Oct2/3.) My initial comment was entirely accurate. AT THIS TIME OF THE YEAR in most previous years there have been numerous teams with 14-15 wins. This year there is only one - Nagoya. Now that you point out the fact, I see that there have been fewer matches than usual, and that changes my view slightly, but not entirely. I suppose on that basis you could indeed argue that Nagoya is indeed doing better than usual. But that would also be arbitrary because the Reds were doing better in 06, and Kashima was doing better up to September in 09, but then went on a monthlong slump. Essentially the point I was making when I first entered the discussion - that Kashima are doing less well than in previous years - is correct no matter HOW you parse the numbers. But I also can see now that the other perspective is convincing when you consider that there have been fewer games. If you just pointed that out, instead of trying to phrase it like "Gotcha - your data is inaccurate", I would have to agree that there is a legitimate argument say that Nagoya is excelling this year. Its still extremely arbitrary because if you choose two weeks earlier and use Kashima 09 (nine points clear with 15 wins), or two weeks later for Urawa 06 (eight points clear and 10 points over the ultimate winners, Kashima, with 19 wins) you see the same pattern as for Nagoya this season. But yes, its true that there are different ways of looking at the data. But Im not sure what that is supposed to prove
Well, Im glad there is someone around here who is qualified to tell us what "everyone" thinks. Then again, I think maybe you missed two or three people when you were polling "everyone". A couple years ago Phil McNulty and Martin Samuel - two very famous UK-based football writers - analyzed that the best way to forecast a league winner when looking at mid-season data was to look solely at wins, and to ignore draws or total points. The logic was that teams which rarely lose - and pile up draw after draw after draw - can often LOOK like theyre doing very well at midseason, but down the stretch what matters is whether or not you can get all three points from each match. Thus, a theoretical team with 10 wins, 1 draw and 6 losses (31 points) is MUCH more likely to finish the season as champion than a team with 8 wins 7 draws and 0 losses (31 points) - they actually quantified it and it was a huge disparity - something like 4 or 5 TIMES as likely. So yes, I do pay attention to wins more than points. Maybe next time you ask "everybody" what they think, you should make sure that you actually ask "everybody"
Yeah fair enough, I know now what u were originally basing your comments on. I still dont think i formulated my post as being a "gotcha"-comment though. I just disagreed with you on the comments about the title-chase being different this year, as well as the comments about the other teams being poorer ( which is not the case as u see in my first post). As you mention in ur last paragraph, we've had one single team having a big lead at this stage of the season on several occasions earlier as well, and even Nagoya did so in 2008 ( when they had 48 points), so I dont think its a unique situation, which u said in ur first post. About Kashima, I still dont agree with you that they have done alot worse this season than earlier, because, based on the statistics its only last season that they really excelled point-wise compared to other seasons. As i mentioned, they have 45 points now, had 50 in 2009, 43 in 2008, 45 in 2007, 46 in 2006 and 47 in 2005.That seems to me more like 1 point below average compared to previous seasons, which wouldnt have made that big of a difference anyway. And i think u mentioned ACL as one of the reasons for Nagoya being ahead of Kashima, which I partially agree on, but I also agree with artml with it not being too big of a factor. They got knocked out pretty early, and they've been a part of ACL for several years in a row now, so its not something that is limited to this year. And yes, one of their main rivals for the title this season were not involved in the ACL, but that as well have happened before. They've also been blessed with relatively few injuries ( Motoyama has been out for most of the season, but that is not the first time, and I personally dont see him as important as he used to be anyway. Except for him they've barely had any injuries at all). They lost Uchida and Lee midway through the season, but they already knew they were gonna lose UChida, and therefore brought in Gilton, and about Lee I dont think he was that big of a loss anyway, as afterall Inoha and Iwamasa were their preferred CB-lineup for the previous seasons. So although I think ACL might have played a minor part ( but other teams had Nabisco anyway, which of course is not the same but it still counts), I think the main reasons for Nagoya excelling this season is their many investments in new players. We knew Tulio would be a hit, Danilson have been great, Kanazaki have given their attack a new dimension, and its the first full season for Kennedy as well. Given they didnt lose any important players in the off season I believe that it is these players that are the main reasons for Nagoya being ahead of Kashima now. Simply put I think Nagoya is a better team than Kashima this season. But whether or not it will mean they will lift the title is too soon to tell. There is a couple of things or arguments in the last post you wrote which I didnt quite understand, so I dont want to comment on them.
thats an interesting theory. Have u done a similar analyzis on J.League and how that looked at mid-season? I could do one myself, but if u already have one I mean...
I don't disagree with that Matsu because ties can ruin teams but at the end of the season, all teams care about is how many points they end up with. You say team with 10 wins, 1 draw and 6 losses (31 points) is much more likely to finish the season as champion than a team with 8 wins 7 draws and 0 losses (31 points). Well, since the first team played 17 games and the second team only played 15 games, its uncomparable. Say the second team is 9 wins 8 draws and 0 losses (35 points). They both played same amount of game now and second teams is 4pts ahead in the middle of the season. Its still a long way to go but thats 2 games in hand. Now ask McNulty and Samuel what the percentages are.
I think the ACL plays a part because (and correct me if I'm wrong) Gamba, Kawasaki, and Kashima have been playing the games with extra travel for 4 years now.....their cores are not completely different for the most part and they have added a ton of miles. Guys like Endo and Kengo have also been playing NT games non-stop for the past 4 years so the mileage is there on key players.
OK sorry, I was not quoting their article, just making up numbers. Change the second team to 8 wins, 7 draws and 2 losses. The point is that their analysis concluded that you should look at wins and losses when deciding if a team is in line to make a title run, not total points. And again, that leads back to my initial comment on the Antlers. You might say they have more points this season than in xx season, but the same is NOT true of wins. Thats the point Im making. Im not trying to argue that Nagoya is doing BAD this year, or that some other factor explains the lack of parity - simply that it was incorrect to say "the Antlers are not doing anything different this year than in the past". In actual fact, the Antlers are NOT winning as many games this year as they usually do: They have 12 wins from 25 games this season - less than in any previous season (25 games) except 2008 2005 - 14 2006 - 14 2007 - 13 2008 - 12 2009 - 14
Marquinhos is 34 rite ? he is a great scorer but i wonder how long he's going to last with kashima,does anyone know his contract status ?