The House

Discussion in 'Elections' started by Riz, Oct 24, 2008.

  1. ceezmad

    ceezmad Member+

    Mar 4, 2010
    Chicago
    Club:
    Chicago Red Stars
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    What will the house look like in 2011?

    I say 220 Republican
    215 Democrat

    What do you think?
     
  2. argentine soccer fan

    Staff Member

    Jan 18, 2001
    San Francisco Bay Area
    Club:
    CA Boca Juniors
    Nat'l Team:
    Argentina
    On what basis do you call Marco Rubio essentially a "wingnut"? Is it based on his call for fiscal responsibility, or for his ideas about overhauling Florida's tax system? Does it bother you that he thinks outside the box? What specifically makes him a nut?

    Or is it that you just like to call all conservatives wingnuts?

    You may dissagree with Rubio, you may consider him too conservative for your views, but he's not a nut. He's a very intelligent man, who earned his doctorate from the University of Miami with very high grades, and at a very young age began a successful political career in Florida. As a politician he is no doubt opportunistic in taking advantage of the present anger at Washington and the establishment, but he is not just a product of the tea party movement. He was a recognized potential star and an up-and-coming figure in Florida long before the economic crisis of the past couple of years and the anger that it created led to the tea party phenomenon.

    As far as him beating Charlie Crist, how much of an upset was it, really? Crist was a good candidate, but so was Rubio. And -judging it from a distance of course, a Floridian may have a better perspective- it seems to me that Crist did not run a very good campaign and left the opening for Rubio to beat him.

    No doubt Rubio was clever to take advantage of the anger against the establishment, and that may have acelerated his rise, and helped him beat Crist. But I think even without all the anger that exists, Rubio was going to be a strong candidate, and was expected to become an important political figure in Florida.

    Does it really surprise you that a Cuban-American conservative -and one who is as intelligent and articulate as Rubio- could win a Republican primary in Florida? I don't think this is the equivalent of what happened for example in Delaware.

    You know I'm a moderate, and had I voted in Florida I would have gone for Crist. But seriously man, Rubio a wingnut? That is the incendiary language of the leftist blogosphere. Some people here are part of it, but I think you are better than that.
     
  3. appoo

    appoo Member+

    Jul 30, 2001
    USA
    I made that post in May, when Rubio was in the midst of a primary battle, and openly courting the Tea Party. He catered to them.

    http://voices.washingtonpost.com/44/2010/02/marco-rubios-cpac-speech-the-t.html

    To me, everything about that speech was far right, and nothing moderate about that.

    Once Charlie Crist bowed out, THEN he moved towards the center, and dropped all the unnecessary crap and concentrated on a few things such as debt and fiscal responsibility. It's defitnitely worth noting that he never mentioned the phrase "tea party" in his acceptance speech after winning the Republican primary.

    I don't think the current Rubio is a wing nut at all, if this is the real Rubio I'm hoping he wins the Senate seat because it needs more intelligent, fiscal conservatives who aren't caught up in the demagoguery of immigration reform, islamaphobia, and socialism crap. I believe he'd be someone who the President could work with.
     
  4. argentine soccer fan

    Staff Member

    Jan 18, 2001
    San Francisco Bay Area
    Club:
    CA Boca Juniors
    Nat'l Team:
    Argentina
    Yeah, I'd say he's a cynical and clever young politician who took advantage of the current political mood to make his move in the primary. He's conservative, but I don't think he's a nut, or underqualified.
     
  5. appoo

    appoo Member+

    Jul 30, 2001
    USA
    Re: What will the house look like in 2011?

    Have a sneaking suspicion that the Democrats retain the house.
     
  6. dna77054

    dna77054 Member+

    Jun 28, 2003
    houston
    Re: What will the house look like in 2011?

    Maybe, but I think that would be the absolute worst thing for Obama's reelection hopes.
     
  7. appoo

    appoo Member+

    Jul 30, 2001
    USA
    Re: What will the house look like in 2011?

    A surging economy will take care of Obama's re-election. I think we're pretty close, and believe we'll have decent job growth in Sept (100K+), and eventually start seeing 300K/400K in November/December with commensurate GDP growth. That should start a cycle of hiring as corporations start using that money they've been sitting on and really get this recovery going. Too late to help the Dems in the mid-terms, but considering that we're at a low point in this recovery, and Obama's approval is at 45%, I think he'll be well north of 50%, if not 55%, within like 6 months.

    I'm not sure what happens with a Democratically controlled House though. I still think we'll end up with a large amount of gridlock, thanks to a tightened up Senate.
     
  8. dna77054

    dna77054 Member+

    Jun 28, 2003
    houston
    Re: What will the house look like in 2011?

    You assume we are at the low point, no one really knows. And yes a surging economy will certainly help him, but IMHO a surging economy is more likely to happen with a Republican House because, rightly or wrongly, business will have the perception that they will not see any "anti-business" laws or any business related tax hikes enacted, thus giving them more freedom to invest. I make no value judgments of either party's policies here, just how they tend to be viewed.

    Of course business may just decide to wait a couple of years for the other shoe to drop with health care when it is fully enacted, regardless of who is in charge.
     
  9. tomwilhelm

    tomwilhelm Member+

    Dec 14, 2005
    Boston, MA, USA
    Club:
    Fulham FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    The Senate is so broken that I honestly don't think it particularly matters how big the majority is, so long as it's short of 60. A non-supermajority is effectively not a majority anymore.
     
  10. appoo

    appoo Member+

    Jul 30, 2001
    USA
    Legislatively speaking, I don't think Obama has much left on his candidate agenda.

    With the energy investment that the Stimulus made, I don't see an energy bill as a necessity. IMO this is something that can be handled with grant money to the private industry. I also don't see a pressing need for Immigration reform, accept at lower levels. Such as reconfiguring the requirements for immigration.

    The thing he's got left with is whatever the Debt commission comes up with, and that's not going to necessarily be a partisan battle...it's going to be a true fiscal conservative vs. Bring home the money to my state/district battle. I think you'll see BOTH parties split in that debate.
     
  11. HouseHead78

    HouseHead78 Member+

    Oct 17, 2006
    Austin, TX
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Grayson (D) catching heat for his equating Webster (R) with the Taliban in a Florida house race.

    I say what's good for the goose is good for the gander. Repubs sure know how to play victim when it suits them.
     
  12. VFish

    VFish Member+

    Jan 7, 2001
    Atlanta, GA
    Club:
    Atlanta
    I am going to miss that guy.
     
  13. Mattbro

    Mattbro Member+

    Sep 21, 2001
    A supermajority wasn't even a majority!

    (Thanks a bunch Ben Nelson and Joe Lieberman.)
     
  14. tomwilhelm

    tomwilhelm Member+

    Dec 14, 2005
    Boston, MA, USA
    Club:
    Fulham FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Wouldn't that be a SMINO? :)
     
  15. Metrogo

    Metrogo Member

    Apr 6, 1999
    Washington Hghts NY
    Re: What will the house look like in 2011?

    This isn't how business makes decisions.
     
  16. Anthony

    Anthony Member+

    Chelsea
    United States
    Aug 20, 1999
    Chicago
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Considering my genetic Republicanism (my mother was one of 10 Catholics in America to vote for Nixon in 1960, while my father voted for JFK (the only time he voted for a Democrat for president) he used to get very angry when you reminded him) some acquaintances have asked why I am not more excited about the prospects of a Republican House and the outside chance of a Republican Senate.

    Frankly, I cannot stand our politicans anymore. Either party. All they know how to do is spend money the government does not have on things in order to get reelected. No one is serious about entitlement reform or getting our fiscal house in order. "TAX CUTS!" and "SPEND MORE!" have replaced any serious discussion of the issues.

    Frankly, I believe that the GOP will win the election on a promise of fiscal responsibility and regulatory sanity and then spend the first 6 months trying to ban gay marriage. I want them to prove me wrong, but I fear (know) they will not. So I have given up.

    Long live anarchy!
     
  17. Mattbro

    Mattbro Member+

    Sep 21, 2001
    The GOP is going to win the House and it's not going to make any sense. So people would rather vote for the asshole party that got us in this mess in the first place than the incompetent party that has its heart mostly in the right place? Then they'll get the government they deserve. Even sadder is that the "Party of No" strategy looks like it will actually pay off, and the voters are going to reward the party that obstructed progress rather than punish it. Unreal. At least the Tea Party is doing the Democrats a favor by letting the Dems snatch victory from the jaws of defeat in the Senate.
     
  18. Michael Russ

    Michael Russ Member

    Jun 11, 2002
    Buffalo, NY
    When exactly do you think "this mess" began?

    How long have the Democrats been in control of the congress?

    During most of Clinton's term, who controlled congress?
     
  19. Mattbro

    Mattbro Member+

    Sep 21, 2001

    So let's say, evening assuming that Clinton and the Republican Congress worked together in joyful harmony to ensure the peace, prosperity and budget surpluses that characterized the 90s, then that casts a pretty gloomy shadow on the Bush years, for most of which the GOP controlled all three branches of government. Or are you arguing that things didn't start to fall apart until the Democrats took full control of Congress in 2006?
     
  20. Michael Russ

    Michael Russ Member

    Jun 11, 2002
    Buffalo, NY
    I would say most people would prefer the pre 2006 economy to the post 2006 economy.

    And for most of us who are old enough to remember the late 70's when the Democrats controlled both houses of congress and the presidency things did not go so well either.

    I think the "middle" is perfectly happy with a president of one party and a congress controlled by the opposition. I think your statement that "The GOP is going to win the House and it's not going to make any sense" is just not based on an objective consideration of the facts. Given the economy and the recent history it makes perfect sense.
     
  21. Anthony

    Anthony Member+

    Chelsea
    United States
    Aug 20, 1999
    Chicago
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I have come to the conclusion that the best political situation for America is a conservative Republican lead Congress with a centrist Democrat as a president. Once they get past the inital silliness (think 1997, not 1995)

    IF the GOP wins control of Congress, and that is still a IF (a big "if" get it? haha), there will be a period of initial silliness. But after they get that out of their system, maybe they can work well together. After all, once Clinton stared down Gingrich and told him to behave, Clinton was he was able to ditch the "progressives" in his party and work well with the GOP (even with the whole impeachment mess).

    Could Obama do the same with a GOP Congress (or at least a GOP House)?

    I am not so sure. Clinton after all was a southern Democrat and clearly his heart was in the pragmatic center (though he started off on the left). So moving to the center for him was simply a matter of moving home, to where he was most comfortable. Where is Obama most comfortable?

    In any event, the GOP is the stupid party and they will blow it. They will spend 6 months debating gay marriage and the ground zero mosque instead of important issues.
     
  22. tomwilhelm

    tomwilhelm Member+

    Dec 14, 2005
    Boston, MA, USA
    Club:
    Fulham FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Most people would be wrong. This is the logic of the heroin addict.
     
  23. Mattbro

    Mattbro Member+

    Sep 21, 2001
    It doesn't though, because the economy crashed to nearly historically poor levels during the Bush presidency, and then the GOP did everything humanly possible to keep the Democrats from doing anything about it, including fighting the stimulus, fighting financial reform, etc. etc. So it's like they're saying "Hey voters, the economy went down the toilet under our tenure, then we tried to prevent the Democrats from fixing it - now vote for us again!" How does that make sense?

    That being said, I don't fully blame the economic collapse on Bush, as pretty much everyone since Reagan whole-heartedly embraced the derugulation that led to it. But if you look at the other dire problems facing the country - the wars, the massive deficits - it's difficult to see how the Democrats are largely to blame for them. Looks more like the voters have completely forgotten how bad things were under Bush and are punishing the Dems for not completely fixing everything he broke within a mere two years.
     
  24. ceezmad

    ceezmad Member+

    Mar 4, 2010
    Chicago
    Club:
    Chicago Red Stars
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    The issue with democrats is that they can not be trusted to balance the budget.

    I would love to vote republican for this reason alone, but the Religious wing of the GOP scares the shit out of me, that is what usually keeps me from voting republican.

    I do agree that I prefer a Republican congress and a Democrat white house; I think the country does best with a divided government.
     
  25. ceezmad

    ceezmad Member+

    Mar 4, 2010
    Chicago
    Club:
    Chicago Red Stars
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Are you saying Heroin is wrong? :confused:


    My finance teacher once described the current economy of low finance (buying cars was his analogy) as why would people pay 5% interest on a car loan when we are all now used to paying 1.9%?

    I guess is the same with the economy, Corporations/banks love the Interest rate at close to 0 values. What is going to happen when the rate goes up? Will politics even allow for the rate to move up?
     

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