With no disrespect to GauchDan, who provides a great service, here is the first NCAA-announced RPI of the 2013 men's soccer season. http://www.ncaa.com/rankings/soccer-men/d1/ncaa_mens_soccer_rpi
If William and Mary's win over Creighton had been counted as a home game, it wouldn't have gotten any RPI bonus at all. But because they traveled a short distance (the game was played at ODU), it counts as a neutral site win and comes with a big bonus. They made out like bandits (not that I've ever made out with a bandit).
I can understand that NCAA and gauchodan perform independent calculations, and I would expect some slight differences, but these look like awfully big disagreements. Notre Dame 7 -> 14 Coastal Carolina 17 -> 10 UCSB 28 -> 22 Connecticut 22 -> 28 New Mexico 40 -> 29 NC State 39 -> 32 Charlotte 41 -> 34
Meh, close enough for government work. (Especially today!) Dan is in the ball park, and still very close on all of them and given that he updates it daily from the first game of the year AND provides a SOS rating, I really can't complain about being off by a few spots on a few teams.
Dan's calculations don't include bonus points as part of the calculation. If a team has road or neutral wins they will move up, if not someone else moves past them. UCSB has a road win at Northwestern and a road win at UCSB so pretty good bump for them. You can go through each team and see what they have done on the road or neutral to know why there is a difference. Notre Dame only has a neutral draw vs. UCLA and a road draw vs. BC (50+) which are very minimal bonus. New Mexico has a draw at VCU, win at Georgetown and win at UCSB so they will jump.
It's a few days old but here's the Top 40 as of Monday. I listed 40 because that's traditionally the line for the bubble, though there are always exceptions both ways. 1Michigan St.Big Ten7-1-1 2UMBCAmerica East10-1-0 3CaliforniaPac-127-0-2 4CreightonBig East6-2-2 5Notre DameAtlantic Coast6-0-3 6UCLAPac-126-2-1 7WashingtonPac-127-0-3 8UABConference USA8-1-1 9NorthwesternBig Ten7-3-0 10Cal St. NorthridgeBig West10-1-0 11GeorgetownBig East8-2-1 12VirginiaAtlantic Coast6-3-1 13Coastal Caro.Big South7-2-0 14DelawareColonial8-1-0 15William & MaryColonial5-3-1 16UC Santa BarbaraBig West7-4-0 17MarylandAtlantic Coast5-2-3 18FurmanSouthern7-1-1 19VCUAtlantic 104-4-1 20Penn St.Big Ten7-3-1 21ElonSouthern9-1-1 22TempleAAC7-3-1 23StanfordPac-126-2-1 24GonzagaWest Coast5-2-2 25Wake ForestAtlantic Coast6-2-2 26New MexicoConference USA5-3-2 27ButlerBig East8-2-1 28MarquetteBig East6-3-1 29ClemsonAtlantic Coast7-2-1 30CharlotteConference USA4-3-3 31St. John's (NY)Big East5-4-1 32MilwaukeeHorizon9-0-1 33ConnecticutAAC3-2-4 34LouisvilleAAC7-2-1 35North CarolinaAtlantic Coast3-1-5 36MemphisAAC7-3-1 37Fla. AtlanticConference USA5-1-1 38George MasonAtlantic 105-2-1 39East Tenn. St.Atlantic Sun4-3-3 40AkronMid-American7-3-0 For the record, Dayton, the lone unbeaten, untied team left, is 48.
The new official RPI is out for this week and the top FOUR teams are all from the West Coast - Cal, Washington, UC Santa Barbara and UCLA! This is such bullshit and I'm sick and tired of the West Coast bias of this system!!!!!! http://www.ncaa.com/rankings/soccer-men/d1 In all seriousness, if multiple West Coast teams are in the Top 10 it will be interesting to see how they line them up in the brackets to, hopefully, avoid having them play each other before the later rounds. It's likely going to mean some more travel for Eastern schools and the increased costs that come with that, something the NCAA usually doesn't like.
Here are the the highest rated teams in each conference this week and the top remaining 25 teams with a winning record and one team that would be (barely) in the top 25 if it had one. Top RPI-rated team in each conference is in bold. Then I have a line of demarcation and the next 10 or so teams that would be on the other side of the proverbial bubble for an at-large bid. 1. California Pac-12 9-0-2 2. Washington Pac-12 8-0-3 3. UC Santa Barbara Big West 9-4-0 4. UCLA Pac-12 7-3-1 5. UMBCAmerica East 10-1-1 6. Creighton Big East 6-3-2 7. Notre Dame Atlantic Coast 7-0-4 8. Michigan State Big Ten 7-1-2 9. Maryland Atlantic Coast 5-2-5 10. Georgetown Big East 9-3-1 11. Marquette Big East 8-3-1 12. Cal State Northridge Big West 11-2-0 13. William & Mary Colonial 5-3-1 14. New Mexico Conference USA 7-3-2 15. Penn State Big Ten 8-3-1 16. Northwestern Big Ten 8-3-1 17. Delaware Colonial 10-1-0 18. Virginia Atlantic Coast 6-3-3 19. Gonzaga West Coast 6-2-3 20. Clemson Atlantic Coast 8-2-2 21. UAB Conference USA 8-2-1 22. Wake Forest Atlantic Coast 6-2-4 23. Coastal Caroline Big South 9-2-0 24. Furman Southern 8-1-2 25. Connecticut AAC 5-2-4 26. Louisville AAC 8-2-1 27. North Carolina Atlantic Coast 4-2-5 28. Wisconsin Big Ten 8-2-1 29. Old Dominion Conference USA 6-3-1 30. Butler Big East 9-3-1 31. VCU Atlantic 10 6-4-1 32. Elon Southern 9-2-1 33. Providence Big East 8-2-2 34. Stanford Pac-12 6-3-2 35. Hartford America East 8-2-2 36. Milwaukee Horizon 10-1-1 37. Saint Francis (PA) Northeast 8-2-3 38. George Mason Atlantic 10 6-2-1 39. Temple AAC 7-3-3 40. Akron Mid-American 8-3-0 41. Charlotte Conference USA 4-5-3 42. Illinois-Chicago Horizon ----------- 43. St. John's (NY) Big East 6-5-1 44. Tulsa Conference USA 7-4-1 45. Drake Missouri Valley 5-5-2 46. Saint Louis Atlantic 10 7-3-1 47. North Carolina State Atlantic Coast 4-3-4 48. Army Patriot 9-1-1 49. Xavier Big East 6-5-2 50. Cal Poly Big West 8-6-0 51. Navy Patriot 6-3-2 52. Dayton Atlantic 10 10-0-2 53. Boston College Atlantic Coast 5-4-2 54. Loyola Marymount West Coast 6-3-2 55. UC Irvine Big West 7-4-2 ------------------ 59. Florida Gulf Coast Atlantic Sun 6-5-1 76. Denver Summit 6-3-3 91. Quinnipiac Metro Atlantic 3-3-4 95. Houston Baptist Western Athletic 7-3-0 97. Princeton Ivy 4-5-1
IU at 74. Was this an improvement from last week? I want to say we were 82, but maybe 68? can't remember. either way, looks like we're going to need to win the B1G tourney to get in. unbelievable.
If they run the table, the strength of schedule should put them close to the bubble as most of their remaining opponents have very good RPI ratings. vs. 26. Louisville @ 31 VCU vs. 90 Evansville @ 58 Michigan vs. 8 Michigan State @ 16 Northwestern Of course, that also means they're good teams. Going 4-1-1 would be a great set of results. Of course, all that would do is get them to .500.
I know you wrote this in jest, but you took a look at Massey (which is the only reasonably realistic objective measure I'm aware of) you'd see that you cherry picked two teams only 4 teams(UCLA and UCSB with Gonzaga and Cal Poly being the other two) in the 3 western conferences where the RPI is higher than their Massey ratings. Between the 4 they average 5 places higher in the RPI (at the moment - the west tends to get worse over time) than Massey. On the other hand the rest of the rest the teams under rated anywhere from 5 to 37 places. What really stinks is the two bubble teams in the WCC Gonzaga at Masssey 23 and LMU at Massey 45 could tie games between themselves and win the rest of their games in an above average conference yet have absolutely no chance of getting an at-large bid under the current system.
Plus, of course, the season isn't over yet. Here is the average RPI ranking of the three west coast-dominated conferences: Pac-12: 35 (Massey: 32) Big West: 76 (Massey: 68) WCC: 94 (Massey: 78) National average: 102 (Massey: 102) As you indicate, the disparity between Massey and RPI is in the usual direction, but except for the WCC, the difference isn't big enough to care about right now. The question, however, is what's going to happen the rest of the way, during which time teams from these conferences will play (almost?) 100% of their games against one another. How far will these games pull their RPI down towards the national average? We'll have to wait and see.
Here are the updated official RPI rankings. Once again, the highest-rated team from conference is in bold as we estimate who the top 25 at-large teams are and where the cut-off for the dreaded bubble is. 1 CaliforniaPac-12 10-0-2 2 UC Santa Barbara Big West 10-4-0 3 UMBC America East 12-1-1 4 Washington Pac-12 10-0-3 5 Marquette Big East 9-3-1 6 Georgetown Big East 10-3-1 7 Notre Dame Atlantic Coast 8-0-5 8 Penn State Big Ten 9-3-1 9 Furman Southern 10-1-2 10 UCLA Pac-12 7-3-2 11 New Mexico Conference USA 8-3-2 12 Michigan State Big Ten 8-2-2 13 Coastal Carolina Big South 11-2-0 14 William & Mary Colonial 7-3-1 15 Cal State Northridge Big West 11-2-1 16 Maryland Atlantic Coast 6-3-5 --- 17 Creighton Big East 6-5-2 18 Alabama-Birmingham Conference USA 10-2-1 19 Connecticut AAC 6-2-5 20 Northwestern Big Ten 8-3-3 21 Wake Forest Atlantic Coast 7-3-4 22 North Carolina Atlantic Coast 5-2-5 23 Gonzaga West Coast 7-3-3 24 Clemson Atlantic Coast 9-3-2 25 Virginia Commonwealth Atlantic 10 7-4-2 26 Louisville AAC 9-2-2 27 Virginia Atlantic Coast 6-3-4 28 Old Dominion Conference USA 7-3-1 29 Delaware Colonial 10-3-0 30 Charlotte Conference USA 5-5-3 31 Stanford Pac-12 6-4-2 32 Butler Big East 9-4-1 33 Akron Mid-American 10-3-0 34 Elon Southern 10-3-1 35 Illinois-Chicago Horizon 11-3-0 36 Temple AAC 8-3-3 37 Navy Patriot 8-3-2 38 Wisconsin Big Ten 9-3-1 39 Saint Louis Atlantic 10 8-3-1 40 George Mason Atlantic 10 6-2-2 41 Providence Big East 8-3-2 ----- 42 Drake Missouri Valley 7-5-2 43 Michigan Big Ten 6-4-3 44 Milwaukee Horizon 10-2-1 45 Hartford America East 8-3-3 45 Xavier Big East 7-5-2 47 St. Francis (PA) Northeast 9-3-3 48 St. John's Big East 7-6-1 49 Tulsa Conference USA 7-5-1 50 Cal Poly Big West 9-6-0 51 Memphis AAC 8-6-1 52 Bucknell Patriot 8-4-1 53 Villanova Big East 7-6-1 54 Loyola Marymount West Coast 8-3-2 55 North Carolina State Atlantic Coast 4-4-4 --- 67 Denver Summit 8-3-3 73 East Tennessee State Atlantic Sun 6-4-3 85 Quinnipiac Metro Atlantic 5-3-4 89 Penn Ivy 5-6-1 137 Seattle Western Athletic 5-8-2
7 BE schools in the top 50 of the RPI 6 ACC schools in the top 50 of the RPI but all 6 in the top 27. 5 Big 10 teams 4 Pac 12 teams
So 1 (Cal), 4 (Washington), 5 (Marquette) and 7 (Notre Dame) all lost this week while 2 (UCSB) and 3 (UMBC) both tied, the latter to a team (Binghamton) that was 171 in the RPI last week. Among the top 7 this week, Only No. 6 (Georgetown), which beat Marquette, didn’t lose or tie. Will the computer make the Hoyas No. 1 this week?
Rankings by the different organizations (NCAA, TopDrawer, College Soccer, Soccer Maddness...) don't really offer the 'real picture' of a program. The NCAA's RPI and Gaucho Dan's RPI give the better representation of the quality of a program...in my opinion. There are so many good programs these days.
Why not to make an average of the various rankings? Am I too naive to think it could give a fair assessment of the teams' quality. If a team is regularly in the top of several rankings it must mean something....