Stadium News and Speculation XXIV: Where Newbies Go to Get Flamed

Discussion in 'D.C. United' started by millwalldavey, Feb 13, 2010.

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  1. MagpieFan

    MagpieFan Member+

    Apr 25, 2004
    Back in DC
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Re: Odds on relocation?

    If you stay there could be trouble.
     
  2. Bootsy Collins

    Bootsy Collins Player of the Year

    Oct 18, 2004
    Capitol Hill
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Re: Odds on relocation?

    Yeah, but trust me -- if they leave, it will be double.
     
  3. Winoman

    Winoman Drinkin' Wine Spo-De-O-De!

    Jul 26, 2000
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Re: Odds on relocation?

    [​IMG]
     
  4. Godalfree

    Godalfree New Member

    Apr 17, 2004
    New Orleans
    Re: Odds on relocation?

    [​IMG]
     
  5. millwalldavey

    millwalldavey New Member

    Aug 17, 2009
    Coal Township
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Re: Odds on relocation?

    LOL. Ahhh... the "extreme" nickname.
     
  6. MagpieFan

    MagpieFan Member+

    Apr 25, 2004
    Back in DC
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Re: Odds on relocation?

    also. that scorpion logo...wtf.
     
  7. Footer Phooter

    Jul 23, 2000
    Falls Church, VA
    Re: Odds on relocation?

    Good god this is depressing.
     
  8. JayRockers!

    JayRockers! Member+

    Aug 4, 2001
    Re: Odds on relocation?

    When the rerfurbishment of RFK happened, about what '05 or '06 when the N*ts moved in, it was widely reported that the stadium had a lifespan that would expire in 2010. I'm sticking by that theory and if nothing is announced by the summer, DC United will be playing elsewhere come 2011.

    Thx,

    Jay!
     
  9. fairfax4dc

    fairfax4dc Member+

    Dec 5, 2008
    Fairfax, Va
    Re: Odds on relocation?

    Okay, I'm only responding because figure skating is on. I agree with the gist of this post, that a move to the Baltimore area would be promoted not as a team relocation but as locating the stadium in the northern area of the existing Washington-Baltimore market. It's no secret that DC area commutes are among the longest in the nation, so it's not unreasonable to anticipate that No Va fans will continue to attend games, especially if the team is not aggressively re-branded as a Baltimore franchise. Also, if I'm not mistaken, a significant number of DC-area fans attended Orioles games before the Nationals came to town (stats anyone?). But in the end I agree with Seahawkdad that it is at least as likely that a PG County plan will re-surface, albeit with some real money from ownership on the table this time.
     
  10. John L

    John L Member+

    Sep 20, 2003
    Alexandria, VA
    Re: Odds on relocation?

    Right now, I'd say the probability that DC United will move from the immediate DC area (within or 1 mile outside the Beltway) to somewhere else (including Baltimore) is 40% - We're still at RFK and the city govt might just realize they can use Lot 8 or Lot 7 as the site for a new stadium - Minimal cleanup and minimal EIS - The EIS for the Nats stadium was a complete whitewash and they could just take off the front cover and put a new one on that says "DC United at RFK Parking Lots"

    But with every year, the odds for relocation increase drastically - I'd say about 20% a year - The longer this goes on, the more assured we're gonna move - In 2011 the probability of relocation will increase to 60%, in 2012 the probability will be 80%, and if nothing changes by 2014 the probability will be 100%
     
  11. Black.White&Red

    Sep 9, 2009
    Club:
    DC United
    Re: Odds on relocation?

    I don't remember that exactly, but the supporter's side is starting to look like a terrace without the seats! (and that's a plus!) :D
     
  12. tallguy

    tallguy Member+

    Sep 15, 2004
    MoCoLand, MD
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Re: Odds on relocation?

    I think that our timeframe is a little shorter than that. I think that we know for sure that the team will play here in 2010 and we can be pretty sure that the team will play in RFK for the 2011 season. But, if a stadium deal isn't announced by the end of the 2011 season, watch out . . .

    What with all the hysterics & venom that were unleashed by the P.G. County Council (particularly by that obnoxious anti-growth councilmember whose name I have thankfully forgotten), I'd be surprised if something develops there. And, as long as Fenty is mayor, I'd don't see anything happening in the District. I can't think of a potential site that's close-in (i.e., within the Beltway in Northern Virginia.

    So, Baltimore is probably the most realistic possibility in the Balt-Wash metro area. I still think that the Shady Grove Metro Station area would be a good "Plan B" place to build a stadium, but what with the economy and the NIMBY factor I don't know if the Montgomery County Government would have the political will to do it.
     
  13. NicktheGreek

    NicktheGreek Member+

    Feb 15, 2001
    Re: Odds on relocation?

    Out of the District of Columbia-100% chance they will go.

    Away from the "DC Metro Area" - Bet on it,

    Baltimore- I hear they are looking hard for a midfielder named Omar, There's lots of Nina Simone being played in the front office, and Goff is interviewing with the Sun.
     
  14. seahawkdad

    seahawkdad Spoon!!!

    Jun 2, 2000
    Lincoln, VA
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Re: Odds on relocation?

    If it weren't for the timing, I'd bet 'away from the Metro area' would be either at the intersection of Routes 606 or 772 and the Loudoun Greenway. The timing issue is that those Silver Line stations won't open until 2016.

    Assuming that it takes two years to build, that wouldn't put the start of construction until 2014. Even though Loudoun County is a welcoming jurisdiction for economic development and both locations are right next to flight paths to the airport with a mix of warehouses, concrete plants and some housing, there's got to be at least a year of political wrangling to get to the point of construction.

    That puts any announcement of a Loudoun solution at 2013.

    So, if that is the direction, can we live with RFK for six more years and, more importantly, our continued data-less discussions for another three?

    I think not.
     
  15. NicktheGreek

    NicktheGreek Member+

    Feb 15, 2001
    Re: Odds on relocation?

    There's this huge fixation that Metro is good and nothing can thrive unless there is Metro service. In the past year the system has virtually melted down. It's convenient, but so prone to delays, total stoppage, and mis-management. I'd like to see Loudon bid, it's good for the county and the Commonwealth. But hinging a plan on Metro service is planning to fail.
     
  16. John L

    John L Member+

    Sep 20, 2003
    Alexandria, VA
    Re: Odds on relocation?

    ditto
     
  17. Footer Phooter

    Jul 23, 2000
    Falls Church, VA
    Re: Odds on relocation?

    Yup. Still depressing.
     
  18. seahawkdad

    seahawkdad Spoon!!!

    Jun 2, 2000
    Lincoln, VA
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Re: Odds on relocation?

    Even more so with every piece of good stadium news from New Jersey, Philadelphia, Houston, Kansas City, San Jose and Portland.

    How is it that all of them have been able to pull it off and we haven't?

    The league is passing us by.
     
  19. Lowecifer

    Lowecifer Member+

    Jan 11, 2000
    Baltimore, MD
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    Belgium
    Re: Odds on relocation?

    I know you know the answer, but survey says:

    Political & Market forces
     
  20. tallguy

    tallguy Member+

    Sep 15, 2004
    MoCoLand, MD
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Re: Odds on relocation?

    There's really no nearby industrial brownfield wasteland to build a soccer specific stadium outside of the District and Prince George's County. Neither the mayor of the District of Columbia (to wit, Adrian Fenty) nor the Prince George's County Council are open to discussions leading to the construction of a soccer specific stadium. End of story.

    On the other hand, Baltimore has a large industrial brownfield near Camden Yards ballpark and Ravens stadium (both of which are build on landfill that is unsuitable for residential development, by the way) and the Maryland Stadium Authority (which understands the financial significance of hosting World Cup games in the foreseeable but distant future) is very interested in underwriting a soccer specific stadium and the Baltimore Government is (at this point in time) open to the idea. Is this the beginning of a beautiful relationship?

    Basically, we've got the same problem the San Jose Earthquakes have except for the fact that the 'Quakes are dealing with relatively friendly local governments. Overall, land is very expensive here and population growth is still off the charts.
     
  21. nick

    nick Member+

    Nov 23, 1998
    Potomac Falls, Va
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Re: Odds on relocation?

    That's the part that's really distressing. United is quickly becoming one of the have not teams and we are becoming desperate to see some even dim light at the end of the tunnel.
     
  22. greekchampion04

    greekchampion04 Member+

    Apr 2, 2006
    Richmond, VA
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Re: Odds on relocation?

    wheres the dislike button for this thread?
     
  23. Lowecifer

    Lowecifer Member+

    Jan 11, 2000
    Baltimore, MD
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    Belgium
    Re: Odds on relocation?

    Rate thread pull down menu at the top
     
  24. song219

    song219 BigSoccer Supporter

    Apr 5, 2004
    La Norte
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    Vanuatu
    Re: Odds on relocation?

    The mods might as well sticky the Stadium news thread because if it's not on the first page someone creates a new thread.

    Strange, the mods look different than I imagined.

    [​IMG]
     
  25. Knave

    Knave Member+

    May 25, 1999
    Re: Odds on relocation?

    I actually think this is the really critical measure. It's not so much a question of what the odds of DCU moving are right now, but how quickly those odds tend toward 100%.

    Let's say the current odds of relocation are John L's 40% and that they increase 20% a year. That would mean they'd be at 80% 4 years from now and 100% 5 years from now. I think that picture is far too rosy.

    I'm thinking the current odds are more along the line of 30%, but that those odds increase maybe 50% a year. Hence, next year the odds are 45%, two years from now about 70%, three years from now 100%.
     

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