I was reading this: http://www.uefa.com/MultimediaFiles.../Regulations/01/64/08/14/1640814_DOWNLOAD.pdf and this: http://www.uefa.com/MultimediaFiles/Download/competitions/General/01/64/07/71/1640771_DOWNLOAD.pdf And two thoughts from these two links: 1 - Seems UEFA doesn't compensate for groups having one team less. Worse, given that you also get points per goal, the ability to maul an extra minnow will be doubly effective. Is this correct? It makes no sense to me, but that's how I'm reading the first link. 2 - Given the 40% and the fact we are less than 500 points from Russia (see 2nd link), we would still pass if we both win and we score 3 goals more than Russia. Obviously this is far-fetched, but it isn't impossible. I'd be more than happy to take a draw in Denmark, though.