Spain have themselves in a tough spot right now, it is a must win against les blues in Paris, otherwise they will be runners up and most likely will not get to the KO stage because they are in a small group.
It obviously doesn´t work like that(would be a scandal). The points the runner up´s in the "big" groups made against the last placed team of their group will be erased. Spain would easily be one of the best runner ups.
Ranking of second-placed teams http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_FIFA_World_Cup_qualification_(UEFA) Because one group has one team fewer than the others, matches against the Last-placed team in each group are not included in this ranking. As a result, eight matches played by each team will count for the purposes of the second-placed table. The eight best runners-up will be determined by the following parameters in this order: Highest number of points Goal difference Highest number of goals scored Grp Team Pld W D L GF GA GD Pts Notes Last-placed team A Croatia 5 4 1 0 8 2 +6 13 1,3,6 Scotland G Greece 5 3 1 1 6 4 +2 10 1,3,6 Liechtenstein I Spain 4 2 2 0 7 2 +5 8 1,3 D Hungary 4 2 1 1 7 7 0 7 1,3,6 Andorra B Bulgaria 4 1 3 0 4 3 +1 6 1,3,6 Malta E Iceland 4 2 0 2 4 4 0 6 1,3,6 Slovenia H England 3 1 2 0 7 2 +5 5 1,3,6 San Marino C Sweden 3 1 2 0 6 4 +2 5 1,3,6 Faroe Islands F Israel 3 0 2 1 4 8 -4 2 1,3,6 Luxembourg 1 – Team may potentially finish first in its group 3 – Team may potentially finish third or worse in its group 6 – Sixth-placed team in group may change (so ranking of second-placed team may improve or worsen even if it does not play)
In addition to what neutral2 wrote in response, it's technically not a 'must-win' in Paris either. If it ends in a draw, they'll still only be 2 points behind. Not exactly insurmountable.
I think that they will both participate at World Cup. I don't think that additional qualifications could destroy their participation. France played allready in additional qualifications for World Cup 2010 against Ireland and they came through. Spain also played once in additional qualifications for World Cup 2006. After that they played against Slovakia (5-1, 1-1).
If we observe current ranking of second placed teams, it's obvious that Spain will be the carrier in these draws, so they can probably get these teams: Hungary, Bulgaria and Iceland. Israel can't participate in these additional qualifications currently. Not sure which four teams could be the carriers, I assume: Croatia, Spain, England and someone between Greece and Sweden. Of course this could be changed in the future matches. Key information is that we will have carriers again, better teams are protected and they play their first match away. Weaker team becomes scared, complete media and audience pressure could play significant role here.
The way I look at it is that Sweden and Portugal are essentially in 2nd place now. Austria and Israel are temporarily holding those spots now because they have better goal difference BUT they've played more games and/or had an easier schedule. So really SWE and POR are in 2nd place. That means that Iceland and England are tied for the worst-2nd place standing. England still have Montenegro at home plus 2 others and only 1 away match so they should be able to win the group, but they have to be careful because if they don't they probably won't even get to the playoff. But as it stands, using FIFA rankings, the playoff draw will look like this: Seeded teams: England, Croatia, Portugal, Greece Unseeded teams: France, Sweden, Hungary, Bulgaria Long way to go still, but could have one very good team end up in the 'unseeded' playoff pot due to Greece's high FIFA ranking (Greece seem destined to finish 2nd in their group). A worry for France and Belgium (and for the seeded teams too).
11. April, FIFA Ranking: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIFA_World_Rankings Second place teams: Croatia, France, Greece, Hungary, Bulgaria, England, Iceland and Austria. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_FIFA_World_Cup_qualification_(UEFA) Seeded teams: Croatia, England, Greece, France. Portugal is at third position in their group, behind Israel, weaker goal difference. They could be second soon, Russia has played only 4 matches, Israel and Portugal played 6. This still seems to early to predict, they all played half of their matches, plenty points in the game. In some groups we know first two national teams: A: Belgium, Croatia B: Italy (5 matches), Bulgaria (6 matches), Czech Republic and Denmark (5 matches). Czech Republic could get this second position if they win in their sixth match. C: Germany (6 matches), Austria (5 matches), Sweden (4 matches, they are in better position), Ireland (5 matches). D: Netherlands, Hungary and Romania (6 matches). I think that Turkey doesn't have chances to qualify. They have 3 defeats, usually 2 defeats is some kind of limit to get one of the first two positions. E: Switzerland, Iceland, Albania, Norway (5 matches) F: Russia, Israel, Portugal. G: Bosnia and Herzegovina, Greece, Slovakia H: Montenegro, England, Ukraine and Poland. Last two have one match less. I: Spain and France. B, C, H groups seem as most interesting now.
I'm pretty confident Spain will pull through and win the group and I'm sure France will be able to still qualify.
I don't know why, it's been a long time I have the feeling this will end in a playoff game between France and England, which willl both end 2nd of their group. The more things go and the more this looks possible. Because of its awful FIFA ranking, France will necessarily end in the bracket of the 4 lowest and England in the one of the 4 highest. That makes 25% chance for France to meet England in a qualifying playoff. That would be so sad. I fear this so much for the good of the game. We need both teams in Brazil!
I think that they will avoid the match between France and England. It's enough to observe Champions League semifinals, they avoided Barcelona - Real Madrid match. If they connect France and England, it would hard to say who would win here. French players have advantage because they play/ed in English league, so they understand English mentality, style and they can recognize advantages: Lloris, Evra, Clichy, Koscielny, Mbiva (defenders can predict English attackers). Also Cabaye, Sissoko, Remy, Giroud, Debuchy, Sagna, Kaboul, Malouda, Nasri and Ben Arfa play there. It would be great to avoid this second place. For example, Croatia played three times in this roulette system and they passed all three opponents, but it's not pleasant at all to watch these matches. I don't understand how do they calculate FIFA Ranking. If you organize 5,6 easy friendly matches during the year and if you don't achieve World Cup or EURO status, you can be in Top 30. France is on 19th position, but they also participate in both competitions. Some teams from Top 30 we can't see at all on World Cup's or EURO's: http://www.fifa.com/worldranking/rankingtable/index.html
*Bump* Well, still a long way to go but the 0-0 draw in Kiev yesterday might help France in the sense that they could be seeded for the playoff draw since England are now likely to win their group. As it stands: Seeded teams: Russia/Portugal, Croatia, Bosnia/Greece, France Unseeded teams: Sweden, Romania/Turkey/Hungary, Iceland/Slovenia/Norway, Ukraine Granted this is still based on August FIFA rankings.