Soccer Source Top 25 Weekly Rankings

Discussion in 'Statistics and Analysis' started by Ed-D, Nov 11, 2007.

  1. Ed-D Member

    Member Since:
    Jun 13, 2005
    Location:
    NY
    I'm going to keep future weeks' polls within this post instead of starting new ones every week. To see past weeks' go here.
          
  2. Tiresias New Member

    Member Since:
    Nov 14, 2007
    I never understand this lists, They are too much based on stats and less on the heart and feeling. For example AC Milan isnt there but even in the bad form they are showing lately i will still put my money on milan in an importent match against 90% of the teams that have made the list.
    Stats have nothing to do with soccer and thats what makes this game so amazing.
  3. Ed-D Member

    Member Since:
    Jun 13, 2005
    Location:
    NY
    I agree in principle. But my ranking is not based purely on statistics--only on wins and losses and the quality of the opponent the team wins, loses or ties against :)

    Milan have barely beaten any quality opponents this year. Okay the win at Lazio was impressive and they did beat Benfica (but that was at home). Maybe they're just warming up, but they do not look like a top 25 team right now.
  4. Empshel New Member

    Member Since:
    Feb 13, 2007
    Location:
    Washington, DC
    This won't surprise anybody who has seen my rankings, but I believe there is a place for rankings based solely on stats and results. Such a ranking is reflective as opposed to predictive. It demonstrates what has happened, not what one believes might happen. For such a ranking, see www.worldclubrankings.com (I'm assuming Soccer Source won't mind me spamming his post.)

    I also believe that it's fine to do predictive rankings as opposed to reflective rankings. It's an artistic, beautiful game and certain teams evoke impressions of invincibility, even though the stats tell you that no team has that quality. I find it hard to quantify those emotions and impressions into an appropriate ranking system, but those who feel comfortable with it should do it that way.

    I've never seen two rankings alike and that's what makes ranking fun. It takes a village . . .
  5. Ed-D Member

    Member Since:
    Jun 13, 2005
    Location:
    NY
    very little changes this week, as can be expected with all the national teams in action.
  6. Ed-D Member

    Member Since:
    Jun 13, 2005
    Location:
    NY
  7. Ed-D Member

    Member Since:
    Jun 13, 2005
    Location:
    NY
  8. Ed-D Member

    Member Since:
    Jun 13, 2005
    Location:
    NY
    here's this week's list!
    I made some adjustments this week because I noticed certain teams in the list were ahead of ones they trailed in their domestic league standings. While this is due to happen for a number of reasons, I felt it should be adjusted at this time, especially in the Premiership where all "Big Three" teams have done well in the Champions League and with one exception (Chelsea's loss at Old Trafford back on Sept. 23) have not played any decisive matches against each other. As a result, you may see some discrepancies with the way teams moved this week versus other weeks.
  9. Ed-D Member

    Member Since:
    Jun 13, 2005
    Location:
    NY
    A massive week for club soccer, with the conclusion of FIFA's Club World Cup, the end of the UEFA Champions League group stage and the Big Four showdown in the Premiership. How did it affect things in the Soccer Source Top 25? Click here and you'll find out.
  10. Cirdan Member

    Member Since:
    Sep 12, 2007
    Location:
    Jena (Germany)
    Mmmh.. I agree with the comment on Schalke, they should not be on the list, at least not above Hamburg. They progressed from CL group stage more on the weakness of their opponents, especially Valencia, than on own strength, and they were not really convincing in the Bundesliga. And Hamburg played more matches than Schalke this half-season, I don't think Schalkes schedule is much tougher.

    I also wonder why Bayer Leverkusen never even made it to your watch list. They won 5 matches in the row before the recent defeat to Bremen... OK, they lost that one 5:2, and never won against a really strong opponent, which kind of proves you right, but ManCity is on your watchlist too, and Juve is 10th despite "only" drawing their strongest opponents. And of course Leverkusen was convincing in the UC, lost to Spartak, but won a decent group. So, I'd probably rank them above Schalke, and I think they deserve to be on the watchlist, and should be included in the top25 if they continue like this and finally manage to defeat a notable opponent. And the 5:0 routing of Zürich this wednesday kind of proves me right ;) I'd also consider Everton, Bordeaux and maybe Espanyol for similar reasons.

    As a last note, I don't think it is meaningless wether a team qualifies as group winner or second, since the group winners have notable advantages in the draw for the next stage, in both UEFA Cup and Champions League. Of course, some teams tend to rest one or the other player as soon as qualification is sure, but I still think it's different from a really meaningless match, when the exact position is already sure, like in the ManU - Roma group on the last matchday.
  11. Ed-D Member

    Member Since:
    Jun 13, 2005
    Location:
    NY
  12. Ed-D Member

    Member Since:
    Jun 13, 2005
    Location:
    NY
    I haven't been posting these updates but they have been continuing. Here is the latest from today.
  13. Ed-D Member

    Member Since:
    Jun 13, 2005
    Location:
    NY
    Things just got very interesting in the Top 25, with many top-ranked teams playing down to their competition or worse. Would it be enough to affect major changes? Click here to find out...
  14. Cirdan Member

    Member Since:
    Sep 12, 2007
    Location:
    Jena (Germany)
    A bit risky to put Olympiakos and Fener that high on the list despite not even leading their respective leagues ^^ did you watch their league matches or do you place them based on results and CL performance? I agree that they were pretty impressive in the CL, but I'm not really convinced about rating them above eg Lyon or Bayern, who top way stronger leagues and in Lyons case, are also in the next round of CL... they might not have been overly impressive in their most recent matches, but Ligue 1 and the Bundesliga are a bit tougher than the leagues of Turkey and Greece.
  15. Ed-D Member

    Member Since:
    Jun 13, 2005
    Location:
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    The Bundesliga is indeed a bit stronger than the Turk and Greek leagues, so you can expect to see Bayern back on top of those two when their season resumes (assuming they keep winning of course). You can also expect to see Werder Bremen, Hamburg and maybe others return to the list at that point. Remember this is supposed to be their CURRENT rank as in up-to-the-minute (or whatever's closest) so the Greek/Turkish teams are at an advantage due to having played most of the last month while German teams have not. I'm not sure the French league is at all better than Turkcell and Super Leagues on the other hand. Teams that are normally very good (PSG, Auxerre, Marseille) are having off years so the cream at the top is thinner than usual (and it was pretty thin to begin with, at least recently).
  16. Cirdan Member

    Member Since:
    Sep 12, 2007
    Location:
    Jena (Germany)
    Now, that's a tough statement, seeing that French teams always did way better than Turkish and Greek teams in European competitions, with the exception of the current season so far and even this season the French are not that unsuccessfull, see Lyon, Girondins Bordeaux topping a UC group with Galatasaray and Panionios in it and Marseille staying ahead of Besiktas in CL to reach the UC knockout stage.

    I get that current form part, since the teams from stronger leagues had lapses lately, but I still think you rate a winning streak in a minnow league to strong... but then, I'm certainly no expert in international club football and it's your list. But maybe the next CL matches will prove my point, we'll see :)
  17. Ed-D Member

    Member Since:
    Jun 13, 2005
    Location:
    NY
    The plot thickened this week as several top teams were put to the test. Most passed by the slimmest of margins, while not impressing (Chelsea, Bayern). One did not even get that far. Read on.
  18. frasermc Take your flunky and dangle

    Member Since:
    Jul 28, 2006
    Location:
    Newcastle-Upon-Tyne
    Club:
    Celtic FC
    Country:
    Scotland
    i'll be expecting to shoot in at around no.20 after we take care of barcelona on wednesday night (20th feb). aiden mcgeady is one of the best young players in europe at the minute and if he pairs up against someone like olegeur then he'll take him to the cleaners.

    we've strengthen significantly in the january window and it's paying off with immediate effect.

    two 5-1 away wins on the bounce and hearts at home before a victory against barca should see us safely into that no.20 position ;)
  19. Ed-D Member

    Member Since:
    Jun 13, 2005
    Location:
    NY
    if you beat Barca you'll deserve at least 20th, no question about that
  20. Ed-D Member

    Member Since:
    Jun 13, 2005
    Location:
    NY
    The return of continental play (Copa Libertadores and UEFA Cup) last week threw open a large portion of the Top 25. With Champions League games on the docket for this week, things are about to get even more interesting. But to see where we stand today, click here.
  21. Ed-D Member

    Member Since:
    Jun 13, 2005
    Location:
    NY
    Liverpool's shocking victory over Inter meant there would be room at the top of the Top 25 list. But who to move into it? Click here to find out...
  22. Ed-D Member

    Member Since:
    Jun 13, 2005
    Location:
    NY
  23. Ed-D Member

    Member Since:
    Jun 13, 2005
    Location:
    NY
  24. Cirdan Member

    Member Since:
    Sep 12, 2007
    Location:
    Jena (Germany)
    Again I think German clubs were underrated... I mean, Aalborg and Liège in the season-top-50? Leverkusen beat Gala and Hamburg in the UEFA Cup and reached the quater finals... Also won in St Petersburg, though they were humiliated at home a week earlier. OK, their season finish was horrible, and they were thrown out of the DFB Pokal pretty early, but I still think they were better than Aalborg.

    In the pre-season-list, I'd probably rate Bayern a couple of places higher, but of course they still have to prove how good they are on an international level, so that's ok. However while I'm not really an expert on La Liga, I think you seriously overrate some Spanish teams. I mean, Atlético on 11, ahead of Liverpool? Not sure... And Valencia 14th? Villareals ranking is also bloated in my opinion. I also have less faith in Ajax,
    Galatasaray and Shakhtar than you seem to have, while I would rate Fener way higher (top 15 even, I mean they bought the top scorer of the Spanish League and the coach of the European Champions!), and I would definitely include Zenit... it looks like Arhsavin will stay, but even if he leaves they have a good team. I'd also consider including Olympique Marseille, Sporting or Celtic.

    I hope that Werder or at least Schalke will prove that they belong into the top 20, but with the transfers so far, I can't really argue with not including Werder at all. I'm a bit unsure about Schalke, the squad is pretty strong now, but they are always prone to internal trouble. Nevertheless, I would be much less surprised about them beating Atlético than you, as it seems... pretty much a 50-50 tie for me :)
  25. Ed-D Member

    Member Since:
    Jun 13, 2005
    Location:
    NY
    well Aalborg won their league and also knocked Sampdoria out of UEFA qualifying. Plus Aalborg has Yanks :) Seriously though, Leverkusen just finished too poorly for me to include them. Though it was close...

    I hope Bayern does well internationally. I've always liked Klinsi. But who's their goalie? And they didn't really upgrade their roster much.

    Liverpool is overrated. They were last year too. And they didn't improve that much either. Look at Atletico though, all the players they added (of course now watch them lose to Schalke). They could do some serious damage.

    Villareal upgraded a team that finished second in La Liga. Fener could be very good but they had a lot of turnover so they're a bit of an unknown for now. Shakhtar I think will surprise people.

    yeah but they're seventh in the Russian league! And Arshavim will probably go...

    Thought very hard about all three, but each had issues. OM lost Nasri, Sporting has too many holes and not enough stars and Celtic looks a bit thin.

    we'll see. Let the games begin!

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