Sept.16 2012 A couple of small upsets happenned between Friday and this Sunday. Sept.15 (19)BYU(WCC) 3-1 (17)Washington(Pac12) Sept 16 (BigEast) (34)Georgetown 1-0 (20)Rutgers Sept.16 (Big10) (50)Illinois 2-1 (38)Iowa Big East update. (26)Marquette, (28)Louisville, (32)Connecticut, (34)Georgetown, (35)Notre Dame all won today with Georgetown now getting a lock for the NCAA tournament. (20)Rutgers lost today against Georgetown, I'll talk more about Rutgers in their update. (20)Rutgers (7-3) 1-0 loss vs (34)Georgetown. If lossing to Villanova wasn't bad enough, they lost to Georgetown. Rutgers has now shown that their midfield cannot provide good service to Jonelle Filigno who is their only quality striker. Their passes are off, they are not technical enough to do short one touch passing to create a triangle where they can build up play from the midfield. Rutgers are going to need to change their formation. They need to goto a 4-4-2, dominate the midfield and use their backs to run overlapping routes so they can get free to get up forward to make crossing passes to the box and allow Filigno to attack the ball from there. Right now when Filigno gets the ball, she has 3 markers on her immedietely, forcing her to pass the ball away, but the rest of the midfield can't do anything with the ball when she does. Rutgers must get Filigno more touches if they have any hope of moving on to the NCAA tournament. Rutgers doesn't have a true holding midfielder that can direct the offense and that is their achilles heel. (26)Marquette (5-2-1) 2-0 win vs George Mason. Seton Hall will be their next opponent then (20)Rutgers. If they get the results, they should be closer to booking their tickets to the big dance. (28)Louisville (7-2) 2-0 win vs Depaul. They have a fairly easy week coming up with Syracuse and St.John's coming up. (32)Connecticut (5-3-1) 5-1 win vs St.John's. Their schedule really gets ugly from here on out. They have (34)Georgetown next and then later (35)Notre Dame and later still (26)Marquette. Any upsets here can really help UConn in their hopes for an at large bid. (34)Georgetown (8-1-1) 1-0 win vs (20)Rutgers. This win will be enough to get Georgetown to the big dance. They are in. They have (32)UConn next, so if they beat the Huskies they will help their cause even more. (35)Notre Dame (5-3-1) 7-0 thrashing of Cincinnati. Well if goal differential ever becomes an issue for the Big East playoffs, I think this game could help them, in either case another win which can only solidify their rankings. Big East NCAA Tournament profile currently. Locks: (34)Georgetown, (35)Notre Dame Teams that are near locks: (20)Rutgers, (28)Louisville On the Bubble. (26)Marquette, (32)Connecticut. SEC update. (11)Texas A&M, (14)Florida, (29)Missouri, (42)Kentucky and (48)Georgia all won today. (25)Old Miss and Auburn lost today with (22)Tennessee and (47)LSU with Alabama drawing. (11)Texas A&M (8-1) 4-0 win vs (25)Mississippi. Another strong win for the Aggies. They have another tough match coming up with South Carolina coming to College Station. The USC defense has been strong all season long, but the Aggies has answered the challenge by scoring when they needed too. (14)Florida (4-3-1) 2-1 OT win vs Auburn. Florida couldn't lose 2 straight games in a row and afford to have their tournament bid in jeopardy. Even though they had to do it in overtime, its a win and they needed it. They now have a crucial test coming up with 3 ranked opponents. (22)Tennessee, (48)Georgia and (25)Old Miss. Out of all these 3, Tennessee will be the real test for Florida. (22)Tennessee (6-1-2) 1-1 draw vs Vanderbilt. The only worse result then this draw would of been a loss. This draw will actually impact the RPI for Tennessee negatively. Not a result they wanted. They have a big game up next against (14)Florida, a match that should give us a clearer idea of how strong a side Tennessee is. (25)Mississippi (8-1) 4-0 loss vs (11)Texas A&M. Not a pretty result for Old Miss, though not completely unexpected either. They have (29)Missouri next, another opportunity to help their national profile. (29)Missouri (7-1) 1-0 win vs South Carolina. Solid win with (25)Old Miss next. Missouri just needs to keep winning and they have a good shot at getting a national seed. (42)Kentucky (8-1) 3-0 win vs Mississippi State. Well I knew the Bulldogs were paper tigers and Kentucky did what USC couldn't and that is score goals. Good result for the Wildcats. They have Arkansas and (47)LSU next, all doable wins. (47)LSU (4-2-3) 1-1 draw vs Alabama. They are really not helping their chances at an at large bid with this draw, they have Auburn and (42)Kentucky next, results here will make or break LSU for the SEC season. (48)Georgia (5-3-1) 2-0 win vs Arkansas. They have Alabama next, but then their road to the tournament gets tough. They have 4 ranked teams after Alabama. This will be a true test of character for Georgia. If they want to be a contender, then they need to win some of these key matches. South Carolina (3-3-2) 1-0 loss vs (29)Missouri. The first half USC dominated play, Missouri came roaring back and dominated the second half. USC is never out of their games, because of their strong defense and their tough midfield, they play a strong possession style of football. The problem though lies with USC's forwards, they need to finish their chances, because they are getting good looks, just not finishing them. I think with experience, they can correct this. USC dominated Missouri for long stretches in this match. Alabama (5-2-1) 1-1 draw vs (47)LSU. Bad result for LSU, but a good one for Alabama. Right now Alabama needs any result to help them with their RPI. They have (48)Georgia and (25)Old MIss up next. If they want to get to the big dance, they need some key results. Auburn (4-5) 2-1 OT loss vs (14)Florida. Auburn's hopes to get to the big dance are not dead yet, but they are on life support. They have (47)LSU then (11)Texas A&M next. They need a result against LSU, its very doubtful they can upset the Aggies, but LSU is within their reach. SEC NCAA Tournament profile currently. Locks: (11)Texas A&M, (14)Florida, (29)Missouri, (42)Kentucky Teams that are near locks: (22)Tennessee, (25)Mississippi On the Bubble: (47)LSU On the outside looking in: (48)Georgia, South Carolina, Alabama, Auburn
Does anyone know what the deal is with Alexa Newfield at Georgia? Has only played a couple of non-conference games and that's it. Is she injured or something else? They've never mentioned it from what I can find in Georgia which is strange to nto mention why your star player isn't playing for a couple of weeks.
She's injured. Knew she had surgery to repair a meniscus injury in the Spring, wasn't up to full speed in summer league, didn't seem to be fully healthy early this season either.
Sept. 21 2012 We have quite a few upsets this week. Probably the most important one is the Memphis upset considering it effects two teams in the SEC. Missouri and LSU. Both will benifit from this since Memphis was sitting outside the bubble. That win alone will probably be enough to propel Memphis into the NCAA tournament since the C-USA doesn't have a playoff structure, Memphis has a clear road now to either win their conference or go in as an at large bid. Sept. 20(ACC) (13)Wake Forest 2-0 (5)Boston College Sept.20 VCU(A10) 2-1 (37)William and Mary(Colonial) Sept.21(Big12) (43)Kansas 2-1 (14)Oklahoma State Sept.21(Big10) (41)Illinois 1-0 (27)Ohio State Sept.21(SEC) (28)Florida 2-1 (19)Tennessee Sept.21(SEC) Arkansas 3-2 (22)Kentucky Sept.21(C-USA) Memphis 2-1 OT (11)UCF Sept.21(Pac12) USC 1-0 (25)Washington Sept.21(Pac12) Arizona 2-1 (38)California Big East update. (23)Georgetown, (26)Notre Dame, (29)Marquette and (35)Rutgers all won today. (32)Louisville drew and Connecticut lost. (23)Georgetown (9-1-1) 4-0 win vs Connecticut. Despite the trashing they took from Stanford, Georgetown has had a surprising successful season. With the graduation of key alumni like Ingrid Wells, one would of thought Georgetown would be in a rebuilding year, but players like Daphne Corboz who now has 9 goals this season, shows that they have a replacement waiting in the wings. They have a few easy games coming up before (32)Louisville, but whatever happens from now on, Georgetown has had a remarkable good season and they will be at the big dance this fall. (26)Notre Dame (6-3-1) 2-1 win vs Pittsburgh. Their road to the Big East playoffs looks set. The only ranked team they have left is (35)Rutgers, but with Mandy Laddish and Cari Roccaro playing superbly since their return from the U20 World Cup. Notre Dame looks very dangerous now. I believe the comment from one of the announcers was Mandy Laddish is a wizard with her vision and passes and so it was during this game. (29)Marquette (6-2-1) 4-0 win vs Seton Hall. Still need quality wins and so this Sunday they will get their chance against (35)Rutgers. Even a win against Rutgers might not be enough to get them in, they need make a push in the Big East playoffs and knock off some good teams to help their cause. (32)Louisville (7-2-1) 1-1 draw vs Syracuse. This draw is disappointing to say the least. Not helpful in the least. They have St.John's next, then (29)Marquette. Louisville just needs a quality win to help insure their place at the big dance. A win against Marquette though might not do it since Marquette is sitting on the bubble, but it can be helpful later on. (35)Rutgers (8-3) 1-0 OT win vs South Florida. This has to start to worry people who follow the Rutgers team, its been a struggle in the last 3 games to score any goals. And that problem again persisted today, if it wasn't Jonelle Filigno connecting on a penalty shot in double overtime, they would have another ugly result. It won't get any easier when they meet up with (29)Marquette this Sunday. For Rutgers, this really is a must win to help turn around their Big East season. Connecticut (5-4-1) 4-0 loss vs (23)Georgetown. Trouble with a big T for the Huskies. They still have (29)Marquette and (26)Notre Dame on their schedule, with no quality wins, they are looking like they might miss the post season. Can they turn it around? They are running out of time to do so. SEC update. (7)Texas A&M, (18)Missouri, (28)Florida, Alabama and Auburn all won today. (19)Tennessee, (22)Kentucky, (34)Old Miss, South Carolina, Georgia and LSU lost today. (7)Texas A&M (9-1) 2-0 win vs South Carolina. With each win the Aggies get closer to sowing up a top seed. They still have a long SEC season to go, but as their rivals stumble, they are slowly moving up the rankings and RPI. (18)Missouri (8-1) 2-1 (34)Mississippi. The two teams that transfered into the SEC conference are now leading it with dominating performances. Texas A&M I expected this, but Missouri has suprised me at how good a side they are. Both have been quality additions to the SEC conference. (19)Tennessee (6-2-2) 2-1 loss vs (28)Florida. Tennessee really could of used this result because they still have few quality wins under their belt with William and Mary being the only one. They still will have more opportunties to get them, but they can't afford to flub too many of these chances. (22)Kentucky (8-2) 3-2 loss vs Arkansas. This loss is a real shock. After their performance against Florida, this has to be a letdown. Kentucky's RPI will take a hit, but overall they are still in a good position, just a chance at nailing a seed for the NCAA tournament is going to be harder now. (28)Florida (5-3-1) 2-1 win vs (19)Tennessee. Debatable how good this win will be since Tennessee has few quality wins under their belt, but a good result neverless. They have Georgia next and then (34)Old Miss. They just need to keep winning and take care of business. They still have a good shot at getting seeded, but the top seed is probably out of their reach now. (34)Mississippi (8-2) 2-1 loss vs (18)Missouri. This loss and the one against Texas A&M have brought the Rebels down a knotch. They were scoring in bunches against weaker sides, now against stronger opposition, the Rebels are getting tested. Their chances are still good at getting into the post season, they just need to capitalize on the chances they get if they want to get in. LSU (4-3-3) 3-1 loss vs Auburn. They had the good and bad happen today. The good, Memphis beat a top 10 team in UCF which almost assures them getting into the post season which will help LSU out in the RPI department. The bad, they lost to Auburn which unless they make a miracle will not be in the post season and LSU's RPI has taken a large hit. Lossing to Auburn was the worst of these results and with a slew of ranked teams left to play, its looking like a tough road to the NCAA tournament for LSU. South Carolina (3-4-2) 2-0 loss vs Texas A&M. Going down to 10 men with 50 minutes to play is a tough way to start on their road trip. Despite this setback, USC isn't out, with their solid defense, they can make some results happen if they play teams tough. This loss does put more pressure on USC to get wins now. Georgia (5-4-1) 2-1 loss vs Alabama. Losing this game, they have very little room now for errors, the writing is on the wall now, with (28)Florida, (18)Missouri, LSU and (34)Old Miss next. Its either win or lose any chance to move on to the post season. Alabama (6-2-1) 2-1 win vs Georgia. A win that probably won't be as helpful as Alabama would want it to be. With Georgia struggling, they are still going to need to get quality results to help them make it into the post season. Auburn (5-5) 3-1 win vs LSU. A desperately needed win to revive any faint hopes for Auburn in their post season ambition. They have a huge hurdle next in (7)Texas A&M. Any result, a draw would go a long way to help Auburn out.
In the Big East it is becoming clearer that Notre Dame, Marquette, and Georgetown are the class of the league so far. So who is next? UConn: Not showing it. Way overrated and it is showing now. Have good attackers with a terrible defense. Semis and finals for the Big East tournament are in Storrs, too bad as UConn won't be in the mix. Providence: 2-1 so far. Could pose problems for teams, especially at home. The postage-stamp field is an advantage for them apparently. Rutgers: Hard one to figure out. Filgno is great - anyone supporting her? Syracuse: Forgedias said Louisville would have an easy week. Cuse proved that wrong. After a draw at Louisville and a win against UConn, Syracuse is no pushover. A team many would not want to face in the Big East tournament. Villanova: Good win against Rutgers, tricky win against Providence, bad loss against Seton Hall. Which team are they? Louisville: High expectations for this program, just a year removed from making the Sweet 16. Need to have a quality result though. Will be interesting to see how these teams play out over the next few weeks.
Opps, your right, was looking at the wrong information, I blame the fact that I only started following the C-USA conference only last year. Thanks for the heads up.
Yeah I was totally off on Syracuse, then again if I was a betting man, I would not of bet Syracuse drawing with Louisville and Villanova beating Rutgers was a shock. Rutgers are playing a Jekyll and Mr.Hyde routine. They play well one week and badly in another. They really rely on Jonelle Filigno to do all their scoring and I blame that solely on their horrible midfield. I just don't know if they practice short passing at Rutgers because they try difficult passes that always gets intercepted and they don't seem to want to do overlapping runs to the outside, almost every build up is in the middle. The times that Filigno does make plays, she almost always has to make the plays by herself, her overtime goal against Ohio State, she beat 4 defenders and the goalie with the ball at her feet in the box. She rarely has easy looks for goals. They don't seem to understand at Rutgers that you need to create opportunites for attempts on goal. You just can't have Filigno solo the back 4 and hope she can carry you every game. Set up crossing passes, make overlapping runs so you can free outside backs so they can join in on the play and add numbers forward. These simple things Rutgers just don't do. As to Louisville, their defense seems to be weaker this year then the last. They really held it together in tough matches, now they seem to be letting far more goals in then they would want. And UConn lossing to Syracuse isn't that surprising. The Huskies haven't beaten any quality teams yet, so it really looks like they are a mid table team this year.
Sept. 23 2012 More upsets for today. ACC (24)Maryland 2-1 (13)Wake Forest BIG12 (40)West Virginia 1-0 (14)Oklahoma State WAC (45)Denver 3-1 (WCC) (16)Portland BIG10 (44)Michigan 3-0 (17)Wisconsin BIG10 Minnesota 1-0 (47)Michigan State WCC San Diego 1-0 (BigWest) (46)Cal State Northridge Not looking good for Oklahoma State, loss to Kansas and now to West Virginia isn't a good way to start their conference season off. Big East update. (23)Georgetown, (26)Notre Dame, (29)Marquette, (32)Louisville and UConn won today. (35)Rutgers was the only team on the list that lost. UConn is very close to being dropped from the watch list, their only hope is to make it into the Big East playoffs. (23)Georgetown (10-1-1) 1-0 win vs Providence. Georgetown's position is secure for now. Even if they flub the Big East playoffs, they should be a lock to make the NCAA tournament. (26)Notre Dame (7-3-1) 3-0 win vs Oakland, their last non conference game. Its intresting that Oakland were playing with all their players behind the ball. It took Notre Dame 60 minutes before they figured out how to break that defense down, then the goals poured in. Having Mandy Laddish lead Notre Dame is a huge plus since she is the focus of the attack for Notre Dame, but they have Cari Roccaro and Crystal Thomas who both are playmaking forwards and that is what separates Notre Dame and most of the teams in the NCAA. They have forwards that are willing to hold onto the ball and let the run of play develop, reminds me alot of how Melissa Henderson played. Ever since Mandy Laddish returned from the World Cup, Notre Dame has been a totally different beast. They are looking very scary and right now I am going out on a limb and saying they are a darkhorse pick for the NCAA tournament, despite their extreme youth. (29)Marquette (7-2-1) 2-0 win vs (35)Rutgers. Marquette did themselves a huge favor by beating Rutgers today. They really were lacking quality results, this will help, it won't give them a lock for an at large bid, but they are looking far more better now with this big win. They have (32)Louisville next, and a result will almost give Marquette a firm lock for the big dance. (32)Louisville (8-2-1) 6-0 win vs St.John's. You almost want to feel sorry for St.John's for being in Louisville's way. The Conference season started off slow for Louisville, this is a nice way to bounce back. They got (29)Marquette next, and they really need this result to help solidify a spot at the big dance. (35)Rutgers (8-4) 2-0 loss vs (29)Marquette. I'm going to sound like a broken record, but they seriously need to find a different strategy with their midfield, they got dominated by Marquette at that department. Part of Rutgers problems in scoring is the lack of service to their forwards, especially to Jonelle Filigno. They really need to find a way to get balls to Filigno. Connecticut (6-4-1) 2-1 OT win vs Villanova. UConn are not technically out, they could recover and if they get some key results, they can move their RPI up, there is still alot of games to be played. The problem from where I see it is that the Huskies haven't shown they can get those results. So its only time before they lose out on an at large bid. Big East NCAA Tournament profile currently. Locks: (23)Georgetown, (26)Notre Dame Teams that are near locks: (29)Marquette, (32) Louisville, (35)Rutgers On the outside looking in: Connecticut My early prediction was that 5 teams will come from the Big East to join the NCAA Tournament, we are still on track for that total. SEC update. (7)Texas A&M, (18)Missouri, (19)Tennesse, (22)Kentucky, (28)Florida, (34)Old Miss won today. Alabama, LSU, Georgia and Auburn lost with South Carolina drawing. (7)Texas A&M (10-1) 2-0 win vs Auburn. Right now they have a decent claim to one of the top seeds for the NCAA tournament. The Aggies just need to keep winning and they will secure a top seed. (18)Missouri (9-1) 2-0 win vs Vanderbilt. If they continue to keep their form, they should have a good shot at taking a national seed. They are in a strong position right now. (19)Tennessee (7-2-2) 6-0 thumping of Mississippi State. Right now they are in the same boat as Oklahoma State. They really don't have many quality results. So they must keep winning to help fix their RPI. (22)Kentucky (9-2) 2-1 OT win vs LSU. Good win against a potential bubble team. Kentucky actually has a chance to take a national seed. They just need to win the matches they are suppossed to win and not flub games like they did against Arkansas. (28)Florida (6-3-1) 4-1 win vs Georgia. They are far from out of the picture. They can easily take a national seed if they beat some of the key teams on their schedule. (34)Mississippi (9-2) 1-0 win vs Alabama. After two straight losses to ranked teams, Old Miss comes back and takes care of business against Alabama. Despite the let down of lossing to Texas A&M and Missouri, they are still in a good position to grab an at large bid. LSU (4-4-3) 2-1 loss vs (22)Kentucky. This loss doesn't kill LSU's chances to make it to the big dance, but it does put it on life support. They need results against Mississippi State and Georgia which should be doable. If they don't get them, they have teams like Florida, Missouri and Tennessee coming up and that could spell the end of LSU's chances of getting an at large bid. Georgia (5-5-1) 4-1 loss vs (28)Florida. They have (18)Missouri, LSU and (34)Old Miss next. These next 3 games will tell if Georgia stays in the picture or fades away. South Carolina (3-4-3) 1-1 draw vs Arkansas. Despite Arkansas upset win over Kentucky, this result is not going to help USC achieve their hope for an at large bid. Their lack of bite at forward is really telling. Alabama (6-3-1) 1-0 loss vs (34)Old Miss. Tough loss for Alabama, their chances are not really good to make it into the big dance. They have Vanderbilt and (22)Kentucky next. They need results or their chances to make it to the big dance will fade. Auburn (5-6) 2-0 loss vs Texas A&M. Next week they have games against South Carolina and (34)Old MIss. They can't afford to miss any more opportunities now. SEC NCAA Tournament profile currently. Locks: (7)Texas A&M, (18)Missouri, (22)Kentucky, (28)Florida Teams that are near locks: (19)Tennessee, (34)Old Miss On the outside looking in: LSU, Georgia, South Carolina, Alabama, Auburn. My early prediction was that 8 teams will make it out of the SEC to join the NCAA Tournament. That is being revised down to 6 with a potential 7th if either LSU or USC can turn their season around. Current teams that have locks on national seeds for the NCAA Tournament. Florida State (ACC) Maryland (ACC) UCLA (Pac12) Stanford (Pac12) Texas A&M (SEC) Missouri (SEC) Penn State (Big10) BYU (WCC) Teams that are in the running for a national seed. Duke (ACC) Boston College (ACC) North Carolina (ACC) Portland (WCC) Florida (SEC) Kentucky (SEC) Oregon State (Pac12) Ohio State (Big10) Georgetown (BigEast) Wake Forest is actually out of the picture, but they can get themselves back in if they win some key matches. There are other teams that might force themselves into the picture as well if they upset some of the favorites. Santa Clara being one of them. One of the big surprises is Oklahoma State, even if they win out their conference, I can't see them winning a national seed which would be a big surprise. The BIG12 has been a big disappointment in the non conference season and with Oklahoma State losing to Kansas and Oklahoma, they are pretty well out of the picture for a national seed and may even be in trouble to even get an at large bid.
Forgedias, I like reading your input. But I do not agree with you tournament projections. I think you are correct with Notre Dame and Georgetown being locks, and Marquette being close. But you have Rutgers and Louisville after that, and UConn next. I see no difference between these programs and programs such as Providence, Syracuse, and Villanova. Rutgers sits at 1-3 and has scored 2 goals, both of which were PKs by Filigno. If you cannot score a goal in the run of play after 4 Big East games you have some serious concerns. And I do not see any big wins by Louisville or UConn, and they each have a couple spotty results. The only reason I can see why UConn and Rutgers are being thrown out there is because of their name. But tradition doesn't matter, it is about what you accmplish now and in this season. If tradition were the basis then Santa Clara would be the top team from the Bay area. But they no longer have that title, and got trashed 6-0 by Stanford. Nova, Cuse, and Providence are hard matches for anyone in the conference this year. Times are changing in the Big East as well and I for one am enjoying it.
Rutgers has a key in over (27)Ohio State, that win alone might be enough for Rutgers, why? Because Ohio State has turned their season around and beaten teams like (24)Maryland, who already are causing alot of upsets in the ACC. If Ohio state stays on form and beats every team in the Big10, with maybe the exception of Penn State, they should be able to take a national seed. That alone will probably get Rutgers into the NCAA tournament. Its not a lock at the moment for them, but Rutgers just needs to keep winning. In fact both Ohio State and Maryland have a good chance to pick up national seeds. Louisville has a few quality results, they have 2 wins that will probably help them as the season wears on. Win over UNC Greensboro, which may seem unlikely considering their record now, but UNC Greensboro actually has a good chance to pick up an at large bid, if they don't win their conference outright. They have a win over Wake Forest and played an absolutely killer schedule, taking on teams like (13)Wake, (2)Stanford, (12)North Carolina and (21)Santa Clara. If UNC Greensboro turns their season around, considering they took quite a few losses to these teams, they should get in as an at large bid which will help Louisville out. The other win for Louisville is Purdue, who will probably get an at large bid from the BIG10 conference. They have a draw with (40)West Virginia who beat (2)Stanford and the key result is a win over surprisingly Central Michigan, who beat Dayton and (40)West Virginia and a draw with (29)Marquette. So Louisville has wins over 2 potential at large bid teams, Rutgers is golden with a key win over Ohio State who may pick up a national seed. Note as I said before both are NOT locks, they have alot of work to do to ensure they punch their ticket to the big dance, but if they keep winning or get one more quality win, they will get a lock. Programs like Providence and Syracuse has no quality results and by that I mean wins over a top 50 team or teams that are in consideration for an at large bid. Providence actually has a good win/loss record 7-4-1 record, but none of those wins will help them get an at large bid if they play against bottom feeder teams. Villanova on the other hand have the quality results, but they have been very streaky and can't seem to get their act together. They have a draw against (24)Maryland,win over La Salle, who probably will get the auto bid from their conference and of course (35)Rutgers. But what they don't have is enough wins. They have a lossing record 4-6-2. They play great one day, and then lose to teams they shouldn't. They might turn their season around, but I have my doubts. UConn has one quality result, a draw against (21)Santa Clara. Other then that they have the same problems that Providence has, they have wins, but not enough quality wins/draws to help them move up the rankings. So to understand why I weight certain teams more then others, it really matters if a team gets a result over a top ranked team. Those results are valued more then results against a team that is the bottom 150 of the rankings. Your going to beat those teams, but beating teams in the top 50 matter, and the RPI reflects this. I don't bother going into the RPI number crunching, because for most people its fairly hard to understand, wins over decent opponents, move your RPI up, wins over bottom feeders actually hurt your RPI. Stuff like that is hard to understand sometimes. Which is why I try to clarify this, by looking at a teams strength of schedule and wins over top 50 teams to help people out.
Friday Sept. 28 2012 Some good upsets for this week as well as a near one with Kentucky almost upsetting Texas A&M. Sept. 27 (ACC) (16)Maryland 3-1 (8)Virginia Sept.27 (BIG10) (50)Minnesota 3-2 (28)Wisconsin Sept.28 (BigEast) St.John's 1-0 (43)Rutgers Sept.28 (Pac12) Utah 2-1 OT (42)Washington State Sept.28 (SEC) Arkansas 1-0 (26)Tennessee Maryland's upsets in the ACC is now becoming routine, we may need to look at them as contenders and not just as underdogs in the powerhouse ACC. Rutgers loss to St.John's speaks volumes about their offense. Its not there, I think every team from now on now know what they need to do to shut down Rutgers and that is mark Jonelle Filigno out of the game. If they can't find a way to support her with other scoring options, Rutgers season might be short if they don't make it into the Big East playoffs. Arkansas big upset over Tennessee is fairly big. It actually might revive their faint hopes of getting into the NCAA Tournament. They first need to get into the SEC playoffs but they can do it. Tennessee though.... this loss could be very bad for them, they still don't have any quality wins. If they are not careful, they might play themselves out of an at large bid. Big East Update. (22)Marquette, (24)Notre Dame and Connecticut all won today. (39)Louisville and (43)Rutgers lost today, both did some heavy damage to their at large bid hopes. (14)Georgetown was idle today. (14)Georgetown (Overall 10-1-1 Conference 4-0) Idle for today. They have a couple of easy games coming up, then (24)Notre Dame and (39)Louisville around the corner. (22)Marquette (Overall 8-2-1 Conference 4-0) 2-0 win vs (39)Louisville. Another good win for Marquette. They are strining some good results together and now look like a lock to make it into the big dance. Their road to the Big East Tournament is super easy with no ranked teams from now to then. They should coast into the Tournament with a strong win streak. (24)Notre Dame (Overall 8-3-1 Conference 4-0) 1-0 win vs Providence. An own goal helped seal the win for Notre Dame. I think for Notre Dame that they will encounter more teams intent on only playing for the draw, having to spend the match breaking down a team and finding a way to score will be a learning experience for the baby Irish. They still have (14)Georgetown and (43)Rutgers coming up with Georgetown setting up the stage for Notre Dame looking for a national seed. It may be still too early to talk about a seed for Notre Dame, but a win over Georgetown can get Notre Dame in the discussion. (39)Louisville (Overall 7-3-1 Conference 2-2-1) 2-0 loss vs (22)Marquette. From the start of the season they started on a high knowing they reached the round of 16 the previous year, but now they are facing some questions about their mental fortitude. These games demand that they show up for that day and win these critical games. First the loss to Notre Dame and now to Marquette. They still have opportunities against (14)Georgetown and (43)Rutgers to get their season back on track, but right now they are slipping. They can't afford to lose these key games now. (43)Rutgers (Overall 8-5 Conference 1-4) 1-0 loss vs St. John's. Another ugly loss and even more worrying, their record in the Big East drops to 1 win - 4 losses. They are in serious trouble and in danger of missing the Big East playoffs. If they miss the playoffs, they will almost torpedo any chance of getting an at large bid. They still have (24)Notre Dame and (39)Louisville on their schedule. They must get results, but their poor form is costing them greatly. Connecticut (Overall 7-4-1 Conference 3-1) 3-2 win vs Depaul. They have (24)Notre Dame next and (22)Marquette down the road. Can they suprise with an upset? Any result would be helpful and getting into the Big East Tournament as well. Right now both (39)Louisville and (43)Rutgers are on the bubble. Rutgers is in alot of trouble because of their weak conference record. They are in danger of missing the Big East playoffs and if they do, even their win over Oho State who drew with Penn State to add more luster to the Buckeyes, will not help Rutgers. SEC update. (11)Missouri, (18)Florida LSU, and Auburn all won. (26)Tennesse, (33)Old Miss, Alabama. Georgia and South Carolina all lost today with (7)Texas A&M and (38)Kentucky drawing. (7)Texas A&M (Overall 10-1-1 Conference 4-0-1) 2-2 draw vs (38)Kentucky. Kentucky was leading 2-1 until the Aggies tied it. Kentucky really took it to the Aggies this game, very close result. It shouldn't hurt Texas A&M too much in their bid for a top seed, especially with Penn State's draw against Ohio State, this is still a better result for the Aggies then Penn State's result. (11)Missouri (Overall 10-1 Conference 5-0) 2-1 win vs Georgia. They have (26)Tennesse and (38)Kentucky next. With Tennessee upset this week and Kentucky almost pulling one off, Kentucky looks like the more dangerous side the Tigers will be facing. With results against both these sides, Missouri should all but lock themselves a seed. (18)Florida (Overall 7-3-1 Conference 4-1) 3-1 win vs (33)Old Miss. Solid win over another ranked opponent. They have Arkansas and LSU next. Arkansas has been playing the SEC tough with a draw against USC and now a win over (26)Tennessee. Care should be taken with an upset hungry side. (26)Tennessee (Overall 7-3-2 Conference 2-2-1) 1-0 loss vs Arkansas. I think its safe to say Tennessee is not the same side as last years. We can say Arkansas improved since they were a bottom feeder team last year, but Tennessee should of still rolled over them with their high octane offense. With no quality wins under their belt, Tennessee cannot afford to give points away like this to a team that may or may not be on the bubble. Their next game is against (11)Missouri. This is their chance to get a signature win to help them get an at large bid. They need to do more to control their own fate by winning these key games. (33)Mississippi (Overall 9-3 Conference 2-3) 3-1 loss vs (18)Florida. Another loss to a ranked team. They might be relying on that Texas Tech win to help them get an at large bid if this keeps up. It will be easier on them with Auburn and Georgia next on their schedule. (38)Kentucky (Overall 9-2-1 Conference 3-1-1) 2-2 draw vs (7)Texas A&M. A result that paired with their win over (18)Florida is going to look very good for them down the road. They just need to keep getting wins and they have a very good chance at getting a national seed. LSU (Overall 5-4-3 Conference 1-3-1) 1-0 win vs Mississippi State. Their first win in Conference play. They need alot of wins, but with teams like (18)Florida and (11)Missouri on their schedule still, time is running out for them. Georgia (Overall 5-6-1 Conference 1-3-1) 2-1 loss vs (11)Missouri. They have LSU and (33)Old Miss next. Georgia is almost out, they may be dropped after this weekend from the watch list if they don't get a key result against LSU. Alabama (Overall 6-3-2 Conference 1-2-2) 3-3 draw vs Vanderbilt. Not necessary the result that Alabama was looking for. They have a nightmare coming up with (38)Kentucky and then (7)Texas A&M next. These two matches may spell the end for Alabama's hopes for an at large bid. Auburn (Overall 6-6 Conference 2-3) 4-2 win vs South Carolina. Considering USC was leading 2-0 at one point. This was an impressive win over the USC stingy defense. With only (33)Old Miss and (38)Kentucky on thier schedule, things are clearing up for Auburn and their is a glimmer of hope. They have a decent chance to get into the SEC playoffs and that might help them get an at large bid if they do well there. South Carolina (Overall 3-5-3 Conference 0-3-2) 4-2 loss vs Auburn. This loss almost puts USC out of the picture now. They are last place in the Conference though strangely enough they still have a shot at the playoffs since the SEC takes 8 teams into the playoffs. They also have faced the best teams in the SEC already and with only Florida left and some good results, they might pull off a miracle. Right now though the USC is out, after this Sunday if they don't win against Vanderbilt, they will be dropped from the watch list. Looking at some of the out of conference results, one result stands out. The Penn State draw against Ohio State. There are now only a few teams on the radar for the top seed for the NCAA Tournament. Florida State, Stanford and UCLA are basically locks and would take some major upsets to knock them off their perches. The other teams vying for the last top seed are Penn State and Texas A&M. BYU may have a shot but they are going to need to beat Portland and Santa Clara to have any decent chance. The two sides that are in the driver seat at the moment is Penn State and Texas A&M. Penn State because of their Strength of Schedule and Texas A&M because of the strength of the SEC conference. If Texas A&M gets the wins they need, wins over Florida and Missouri, then they have a stronger bid for the top seed then Penn State does. Why you ask? The Big10 conference is weaker, in fact they would probably be the 5th strongest conference in the nation, with the SEC pulling up second. That fact alone will probably be enough to help push Texas A&M past Penn State. And Penn State's draw against Ohio State who is the second best team in the Big10 hurts Penn State more then TexasA&M's draw against Kentucky. After Ohio State, the RPI's for the rest of the teams in the Big10 drop off considerably, while in the SEC, Texas A&M still has Missouri and Florida who are higher up on the RPI rankings and wins over these two teams should clinch a top seed for them. This of course is all still very early so things can chance, but as it stands now, things have cleared up on which teams have the better bids for the top seeds.
You keep talking about Penn State drawing with Ohio State. According to the game I watched and their website Penn State beat Ohio State 3-0.
Forgedias, you say that the SEC is stronger than than the Big 10, with the SEC likely being 2nd and the Big 10 likely being 5th. The only conference ranking that means much is the RPI, and the Big 10 and SEC as of last Sunday's games were just about equal in terms of average conference RPIs, splitting the 3rd-4th places among conferences. Massey's ratings, by the way, agree with this.
The only reason why I think the SEC is better then the BIG10 is how the RPI breaks down for all the teams involved. Right now if we look at the BIG10 there are only a few teams that break in the upper RPI teams, Penn State and I would then add in Ohio State. After that is drops off considerably. Looking at the SEC, Texas A&M, Missouri, Florida and Kentucky are all up there. Then you have Tennessee and Mississppi State which are probably near the top 50 as well. Right now the SEC are better then the BIG10 and I simply don't see how the BIG10 will improve as a whole because of where the teams are right now. But if your looking at the breakdowns on a weekly basis, then I have to give it to you on that, since I don't keep track of that. That is quite alot of work to do, so if you are tracking it on a weekly basis, kudos to you. Looking at each individual conferences, the ACC leads all conferences, then there is a good battle for second with the Pac12 and SEC. After that I actually think the WCC are better then the BIG10 conference.
I understand where you're coming from. The point of my post really was that from and end-of-season RPI perspective, it may be better to be playing in the Big 10 because it appears that will do more for your end-of-season RPI than playing in the SEC. Comparing the top halves or so of the conferences is a different matter. If you want to see a weekly statistical status report on how the individual conferences relate to each other, a very easy place to go is Massey's ratings here: http://masseyratings.com/rate.php?lg=csocw&yr=2012&c=1. Or, you can go to the RPI for Division I Women's Soccer website usually on Tuesday of each week and take a look at the weekly RPI report's second workpage, which is a conferences report that includes quite a bit of RPI-related detail on the conferences. The weekly reports are in Excel workbooks attached to the bottom of the page here: https://sites.google.com/site/rpifordivisioniwomenssoccer/rpi-reports. These two info sources might be a good resource for your writeups here, which I think are great and very well informed.
I'll check it out, thanks. You may have a point about the end of season RPI for the BIG10, especially since I fully expected to see 8 teams from the SEC make it to the big dance and now its looking like we won't.
Sunday Sept.30 2012 We actually had two upsets this Saturday Sept.29 and many more the next day. Sept.29 (32)Pepperdine (WCC) 1-0 (9)Boston College (ACC) Sept.29 (Ivy) Princeton 2-1 (49)Dartmouth Sept.30 (ACC) (8)Virginia 1-0 (5)Duke Sept.30 (ACC) (19)Virginia Tech 1-0 (16)Maryland Sept.30 (SEC) (26)Tennessee 1-0 (11)Missouri Sept.30 (SEC) Auburn 1-0 (33)Old Miss Sept.30 (SEC) Alabama 2-1 OT (38)Kentucky Sept.30 (Pac12) (47)California 3-1 (21)Oregon State Sept.30 (Pac12) Utah 2-0 (29)Washington Sept.30 (BigWest) Fullerton 2-1 (25)Long Beach Sept.30 (BigEast) Syracuse 1-0 OT (43)Rutgers Sept.30 (MAC) Eastern Michigan 2-0 (46)Central Michigan Some key upsets is Pepperdine's, which only helps them in the RPI and their at large prospects, Tennessee now has a markee upset they can hang onto and Auburn and Alabama helps their faint at large bids with their win over Old Miss and Kentucky. Big East update. (14)Georgetown, (22)Marquette and (24)Notre Dame all win today. (39)Louisville drawed, and (43)Rutgers loss to Syracuse almost putting their chances to make the Big East playoffs out of reach thereby ending their at large hopes for the NCAA Tournament. South Florida joins the watchlist after their draw with Louisville. If USF does well enough and makes the Big East playoffs and win some key games, they could join the NCAA Tournament with an at large bid. (14)Georgetown (11-1-1 Conference 5-0) 8-0 win vs Pittsburgh. They so far have had an easy ride in the Big East season play but they have (24)Notre Dame and (39)Louisville upcoming on their schedule. These will be bigger tests for Georgetown. We still need to see if they can contend with a side like Notre Dame who control the ball and possess it. After getting beaten badly by Stanford, there are still lingering questions whether Georgetown can stay with a top side and compete. (22)Marquette (Overall 9-2-1 Conference 5-0) 5-0 win vs Cincinnati. Providence and UConn are their next games, all of which should be fairly easy results for them. (24)Notre Dame (Overall 9-3-1 Conference 5-0) 4-0 win vs Connecticut. UConn played Notre Dame fairly tough with only 1 goal conceded by the second half, but as usual, Notre Dame began breaking down the oppossing defense and they started getting shots on goal and scoring. If Notre Dame can translate this type of play against stronger sides, they are going to be very dangerous. Its really strange to watch teams play very defensively and try to wait for counters to attack against Notre Dame. Not saying UConn played like this, but many teams are playing 9-10 players behind the ball and turtling up. I just don't know its so wise to try to play for a draw or hope for a counter when you allow a good side like Notre Dame control of the ball. They are too dangerous when you give them that much ball control. (39)Louisville (Overall 7-3-2 Conference 2-2-2) 1-1 draw vs South Florida. Considering how uneven their league season has been. This draw kinda hurts Louisville. They beaten the easy teams, lost to Notre Dame and Marquette, but a tough team like USF a draw is simply not good enough. In fact this draw actually helps USF out alot. If they make the post season, they may have a shot at NCAA Tournament. (43)Rutgers (Overall 8-6 Conference 1-5) 1-0 OT loss vs Syracuse. Its amazing to watch a side tank their league season as Rutgers has. They went into the Big East season with so much potential, but every chance they had to lock up their at bid chances has blown up in their faces. This loss will probably finally knock them out of the running for an NCAA at large bid. St.Johns, Syracuse and Depaul should of been teams that Rutgers should beat, but with losses to St.John's and Syracuse, their chances of making it into the Big East tournament is slim. They still have to beat Notre Dame and Louisville as well. Right now, it looks very bad for Rutgers. Connecticut (Overall 7-5-1 Conference 3-2) 4-0 loss vs Notre Dame. They played Notre Dame tough and held them to one goal in the first half, but Notre Dame quickly broke the game open in the second half and scored 3 more goals. Chances to get that key win don't come that often, they have two more chances with USF and Marquette, both good quality sides. They need results badly. South Florida (Overall 6-4-2 Conference 2-1-2) 1-1 draw vs (39)Louisville. USF joins the watchlist this week after their result with Louisville. They have results over Miami and Indiana, but they weren't included because they had an uneven non conference season with losses to UCF, Dartmouth and Georgia. But all 3 were ranked or formerly were. Their progress in the Big East season has been decent, enough results that they have a good chance to make it into the Big East playoffs. If they do well there, they could turn their season around and grab an at large bid. Big East NCAA Tournament profile currently. Locks: (14)Georgetown, (24)Notre Dame Teams that are near locks: (22)Marquette On the Bubble: (39)Louisville On the outside looking in: (43)Rutgers, Connecticut, South Florida My prediction of 5 teams coming out of the Big East takes a hit with the struggles of Rutgers. Rutgers in essence needs to win all their remaining games to make it into the Big East playoffs with Notre Dame and Louisville still on their schedule, this is a tall order to do. SEC update. (7)Texas A&M, (18)Florida, (26)Tennessee, Alabama and Auburn all won today. (11)Missouri and (33)Old Miss lost with LSU, Georgia and South Carolina drawing. The key results are (26)Tennessee's win over Missouri, which gives them a lock for an at large bid and Alabama's big win over Kentucky reviving their at bid hopes. (7)Texas A&M (Overall 11-1-1 Conference 5-0-1) 2-0 win vs Mississippi State. They have Alabama and (18)Florida up next. Key games for the Aggies in their quest for a top seed. The one problem is their win over (43)Rutgers, its looking like that it won't turn out to be a quality result and may be a drag on their RPI as the season wears on. (11)Missouri (Overall 10-2 Conference 5-1) 1-0 loss vs (26)Tennessee. After the struggles of Tennessee, I did not see this coming. This loss to Tennessee is going to hurt Missouri. They still look good to take a national seed but they better hope Tennessee improves their RPI as they play out the Conference season. The good news for Missouri is the improving form of (36)Memphis. Their win over UCF and continued destruction of the C-USA is helping to repair their earlier RPI issues. With Missouri's win over Memphis this can only be good news as Memphis returns to the upper echelons of the rankings. (18)Florida (Overall 8-3-1 Conference 5-1) 4-0 win vs Arkansas. With LSU and then the key game against (7)Texas A&M next. These next games can define Florida's chances at grabbing a national seed. (26)Tennessee (Overall 8-3-2 Conference 3-2-1) 1-0 win vs (11)Missouri. An excellent win and more importantly a key win that they can hang onto that probably will be enough to help clinch an at large bid for Tennessee. (33)Mississippi (Overall 9-4 Conference 2-4) 1-0 loss vs Auburn. This is the wrong time for Old Miss to start struggling. They need these wins especially if they want to get into the SEC playoffs. With Georgia and (38)Kentucky next, they are going to need to work hard at making sure they get the points they need to make it into the playoffs. (38)Kentucky (Overall 9-3-1 Conference 3-2-1) 2-1 loss OT vs Alabama. This is not the result they want if they want a national seed. They have (11)Missouri and (33)Old Miss next. Tough group of matches, but important ones if they want that national seed. LSU (Overall 5-4-4 Conference 1-3-2) 2-2 draw vs Georgia. Their overall record isn't the real factor here, its their conference record and right now, they are lagging behind many of the teams in the SEC to make it into the playoffs. With (11)Missouri, (18)Florida, (26)Tennessee and (33)Old Miss still on their schedule, their chances of making it into the SEC playoffs are pretty slim and if they don't get into the playoffs, any hope for an at large bid is finished. Georgia (Overall 5-6-2 Conference 1-3-2) 2-2 draw vs LSU. They have the same problems as LSU has. Their conference record is at the low end of the league. With (7)Texas A&M, (26)Tennessee, (33)Old Miss and (38)Kentucky on their schedule. their chances to make it into the SEC playoffs are also fairly weak. Alabama (Overall 7-3-2 Conference 2-2-2) 2-1 OT win vs (38)Kentucky. Monster win for Alabama. A big result that will be a big boost to their RPI. Add to the fact they escape the logjam at the bottom of the Conference standings giving them some breathing room. They look to have a good shot to get into the SEC playoffs. Auburn (Overall 7-6 Conference 3-3) 1-0 win vs (33)Old Miss. Strong win for Auburn. And very much needed to help revive their faint at bid hopes. This win also gives them more of a cushion in the race to get into the SEC playoffs. South Carolina (Overall 3-5-4 Conference 0-3-3) 1-1 draw vs Vanderbilt. I've been debating whether I should drop USC from the watchlist, everytime I do, I think about their defense and how good they played some of the top teams in the SEC. Their only issues is goal scoring. For now I will keep them around because so long as they stay around near some of the teams vying for the last few spots in the playoffs, they have a chance. Arkansas (Overall 5-6-1 Conference 2-3-1) 4-0 loss vs (18)Florida. Arkansas rejoins the watchlist. Their wins over (26)Tennessee and (38)Kentucky has made them a possible bubble team. Their conference record also puts them in for a SEC playoff spot as well. For a team that had a rough 2011, this year has been a revelation to me. Right now they actually look better then Georgia and if they can do well in the playoffs, they just might come in with an at large bid. SEC NCAA Tournament profile currently. Locks: (7)Texas A&M, (11)Missouri, (18)Florida, (26)Tennessee, (38)Kentucky On the bubble: (33)Mississippi, Alabama On the outside looking in: LSU, Georgia, Auburn, South Carolina, Arkansas
Forgedias, since you're following both conferences closely, I'm wondering what you think about which teams might end up with overall records (including conference tournaments) below 0.500, since those teams cannot get at large selections to the NCAA Tournament no matter what. If you're up to projecting how the rest of the conference season might run, you could make some educated guesses about which teams won't meet the 0.500 minimum. It's something I've wondered about with teams generally, and I have a feeling that this year there may be quite a few pretty good teams that won't meet the minimum requirement.
This is a heck of a thread by forgedias and cp. I started to read it for the Big East info and am learning a lot about SEC soccer.
I think at this point it is pretty hopeful to think that the Big East will get more than 3 bids. Marquette, Notre Dame, and Georgetown are in great shape. The Notre Dame-Georgetown game on 10/12 will be massive and will most likely determine who the 1-2 seeds are in the National Division. As for the others it will be tough to get a 4th team into the dance, but it is doable if someone gets on a run and can pull off a couple wins in the Big East tournament. I'll comment on the contending teams, as far as their outlook for at least making it to the Big East tournament. NO ONE here is in shape to get an at-large bid at this time: Louisville at 2-2-2 could do it but they have some work to do. Upcoming schedule: Villanova, Georgetown, Rutgers, Seton Hall, Cincinnati. The only 'tough' game is Georgetown, though Villanova will be tricky. They could finish well and definitely get to 6 wins in the conference. South Florida at 2-1-2 is in the running for the 2 seed in the American Division. Upcoming schedule: UConn, Providence, Syracuse, St. John's, Marquette. Could get to 5 wins with 2 ties, which would at least get them in. Games like the one versus UConn and Syracuse could determine who the 2 seed is in the American Division. Syracuse is in pretty good shape at 4-1-1. Upcoming schedule: Pitt, South Florida, Marquette, St. John's. They should get to 6 wins and a possible 2 seed. Big game at USF on 10/12 which could be a classic 6-pointer for those teams. They have 'upsets' against Rutgers, UConn, and a tie at Louisville. At what point are those games considered 'upsets' instead of Syracuse being a legit squad? Providence at 2-3 is playing right now in a make-up, they need to win versus DePaul. Upcoming schedule: Marquette, South Florida, Pitt, UConn. Tough road ahead, they could get to 5 wins. UConn is 3-3. Upcoming schedule: USF, Marquette, Pitt, Providence. 4-0 loss to Notre Dame shows they are not in the top class of the league. Should get 5 wins, 6 if they if they finish well. Not as strong as their preseason expectations placed on them. Villanova at 3-2 got a win at Pitt in their only match last week. They are at Louisville, Cincinnati, DePaul, Notre Dame, Georgetown. Brutal end for them. Should get 5 wins, maybe 6 if they can pull off 3 wins in their next 3 games. And can we please stop talking about Rutgers? I thought UConn was the most over-hyped team. It is pathetic when you have played 6 games and still do not have a goal in the run of play. They have 2 PKs and that is it. 1-5 in the league, they are toast. They could get wins against Cincinnati, DePaul, and Seton Hall, but Notre Dame and Louisville will be tough. They will be lucky to get to 5 wins and a berth into the Big East tournament. Postseason hopes are over for them after another disastrous weekend. With a weapon like Filigno you can do better than that. Will be great to see what happens these 3 weeks.
Forgedias, along the lines of your analysis of the relative strengths of the top conferences, here are two interesting tables. The first shows the Average Adjusted RPIs of the top 7 conferences using the NCAA's RPI formula. The second shows the Average Adjusted RPIs of the top 7 conferences using my "Improved" RPI formula. The Improved RPI is set to minimize the RPI's problem rating teams from different regional playing pools in a single national system: NCAA ARPI RankConferenceAverage ARPI 1ACC0.6286 2Pac 120.6169 3SEC0.6001 4Big 100.5992 5West Coast0.5831 6Big Twelve0.5778 7Big East0.5582 Improved ARPI RankConferenceAverage ARPI 1ACC0.6170 2Pac 120.6101 3SEC0.5925 4West Coast0.5810 5Big 100.5790 6Big 120.5601 7Big East0.5467
Here are the Big East schools in the top 100 RPI as of yesterday's list: Notre Dame - 20 Georgetown - 26 Louisville - 46 Marquette - 48 Rutgers - 53 (was at 27 a week ago) UConn - 67 Providence - 89 Syracuse - 93 South Florida - 96 Louisville is in better shape than I would have thought so if they get results they could possibly snag an at-large bid. I would have assumed Marquette would have been higher so they still have some work to do.
Its nice to see some comments on the Big East and SEC side. As for teams not making it into the tournament because they don't have a .500 record, yeah I expect to see some from the SEC in that situation. The teams I think that are in trouble is LSU, Auburn and Arkansas. All 3 of these teams have very tough schedules coming up. Auburn and Arkansas have pretty good chances of making it into the SEC playoffs. LSU is going to need to surprise us and get an upset or two to make it in with their weak conference record hampering them. The Big East, the only team that has really surprised me is Rutgers, their collaspe has been stunning to watch. If they weren't busy self destructing their league season, all they had to do is have a decent win/loss record and they probably would be in the NCAA tournament with their win over Ohio State. That is how huge that win is for Rutgers. Right now I can't even invision them beating teams like Notre Dame or Louisville. If they lost to Notre Dame that wouldn't kill their chances, but they would then need to win every other game, and right now I don't see that happenning. Rutgers would surprisingly enough might have the RPI to actually make it into the NCAA tournament even if they missed out of the Big East playoffs, but would have a lossing record and would miss out on the NCAA tournament.
Glad we could help. The Big East has always been a conference I watched because I follow Notre Dame, so its always intrested me and will continue to intrest me with Memphis transfering in next year. The SEC is well one wild conference. Unlike this year, usually you can fully expect to see no favorites, with a ton of upsets. Texas A&M and Missouri has changed that to a degree, but we are still seeing some upsets and alot of good close matches in the SEC so I am not disappointed.