DonJuego - sorry if you don't agree that the table I'm posting is trying to do exactly the same thing as you. I am not trying to predict anything, I am just trying to show how teams have performed to date. I'm using the EXACT SAME approach, the only difference is in the points expected for home and away matches. The "historical" aspect is that the points expected I'm using are the points that MLS teams have historically earned in home or away matches. That doesn't mean that this is trying to predict anything, it's just trying to show the current status of how teams have performed compared to how an "average" MLS team would have performed. This is no way predicts the future, as teams can have easier or tougher schedules ahead due to opponents, not just the location. Teams can also improve and play better, bring in new players, etc.
Alternative Adjusted Table through June 2 Games: (Using 1.7 Expected Home ppg, 1.0 Expected Road ppg) (Points = total differential to Expected Values) Code: Team Points Points/Game Played EAST SKC 8.8 0.73 NYK 8.8 0.68 DCU 5.7 0.38 HOU 2.9 0.26 CLB 1.8 0.15 CHI 0.8 0.06 --------------------- NER -1.2 -0.09 MON -4.5 -0.35 PHI -6.5 -0.59 TOR -11.2 -1.12 WEST RSL 10.1 0.72 SJE 8.1 0.58 SEA 5.4 0.42 VAN 2.8 0.23 COL 1.8 0.14 ------------------- CHV -2.9 -0.22 POR -3.9 -0.33 LAG -6.9 -0.53 DAL -7.6 -0.51
So it turns out that SportsFan-Quakes had not seen my PM regarding setting up his table as an alternative to the one I do - rather than another alternative to the league table. So I apologize to him for the previous comment that assumed he decided to ignore me. He and I must agree to disagree to some aspects but they are fairly inconsequential. I felt his table is predictive because the expected points per game are based on a prediction of the number of draws that will happen using the historical distribution of results. His table ranks teams based upon this prediction of the number of points that will be awarded rather than the actual points available. Under SF-Q's system, if SKC wins all their home games and loses all their road games left this season, they will finish +12.1 points, or 63.1 points when adding that to 51 (which I'm not sure makes sense.) However, SKC's actual total points in the league table will be 58. Point being you can't look at the the current table and get to that 58 easily. In the end, all the systems (league, mine, SF-Qs) will order the teams the same AT THE END OF THE SEASON. Mine will match the actual point totals exactly by adding 51. As the season progresses mine will rank teams based on the expectation of home wins. SF-Qs will order teams mid-season based on a predicted distribution of results. It comes down to personal preference. I prefer simplicity. Further, my system does something SF-Qs does not which may or may not be of value to anyone other than me. It eliminates home wins from mattering. This means the table changes less often, but changes greater when it does change. I like that. Others mileage will vary.
Schedule Adjusted table after 6/10/12:One game, a home win, so no changes to the table. East ======= SKC 7 HOU 7 NYR 5 ----------- CLB 0 DCU 0 ----------- CHI 0 NER -2 MTL -3 PHU -7 TFC -15 West ======= RSL 8 SJE 6 VCW 1 ------------ COL 1 SEA 0 ------------ CHV -6 LAG -7 POT -8 FCD -11
Alternative Adjusted Table through June 10 Games: (Using 1.7 Expected Home ppg, 1.0 Expected Road ppg) (Points = total differential to Expected Values) Now that teams have all played a reasonable mix of home and away games, this table and DonJuego's are starting to be closer together in terms of the ranking. The biggest differences are that this table shows Houston lower (4th instead of 2nd in the East), and also shows Seattle higher (3rd instead of 5th in the West). Interestingly, there are only 5 teams in the West that are doing better than expected (above average based on the averages the past two years in terms of points earned per game at home and away), while there are 6 in the East, and another in the East barely below average (indicated by a negative score). Code: Team Points Points/Game Played EAST SKC 8.8 0.73 NYK 8.8 0.68 DCU 5.7 0.38 HOU 1.9 0.16 CLB 1.8 0.15 ---------------------- CHI 0.8 0.06 NER -1.2 -0.09 MON -4.5 -0.35 PHI -6.5 -0.59 TOR -11.2 -1.12 WEST RSL 10.1 0.72 SJE 8.1 0.58 SEA 5.4 0.42 VAN 4.1 0.32 COL 1.8 0.14 ------------------- CHV -2.9 -0.22 POR -3.9 -0.33 LAG -6.9 -0.53 DAL -7.6 -0.51
Games that Mattered on 6/17/12: PHU o 1 DCU NER 0 0 CLB CHV 0 3 RSL Schedule Adjusted Table after 6/17/12: East ======== SKC 7 HOU 7 NYR 5 -------------- DCU 3 (+3) CLB 1 (+1) -------------- CHI 0 MTL -3 NER -4 (-2) PHU -10 (-3) TFC -15 West ========= RSL 11 (+3) SJE 6 VCW 1 --------------- COL 1 SEA 0 --------------- LAG -7 POT -8 CHV -9 (-3) FCD -11
The update for games of Saturday 6/16 were mislabeled 6/17. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Games that Mattered on Sunday 6/17/12: Two games, two homes wins. No changes. Schedule Adjusted Table after Sunday 6/17/12: East ======== SKC 7 HOU 7 NYR 5 -------------- DCU 3 CLB 1 -------------- CHI 0 MTL -3 NER -4 PHU -10 TFC -15 West ========= RSL 11 SJE 6 VCW 1 --------------- COL 1 SEA 0 --------------- LAG -7 POT -8 CHV -9 FCD -11
Alternative Adjusted Table through June 17 Games: (Using 1.7 Expected Home ppg, 1.0 Expected Road ppg) (Points = total differential to Expected Values) Not much movement positionally this week - Chicago moved up a slot in the East and Vancouver moved up a slot in the West. Interestingly, while Philly and TFC are cementing their spots as the two worst teams, the rest of the East is doing better than the best. Based on this table in terms of points per game (which is the points per game that the team is doing better than MLS historical average), 4 of the bottom 6 teams would be from the West, and 6 of the top 10 teams are in the East. Again, this only looks at results compared to how an average MLS team does at home or away, not the strength of the teams played though. Code: Team Points Points/Game Played EAST SKC 10.1 0.78 NYK 7.8 0.56 DCU 7.7 0.48 HOU 3.2 0.25 CHI 2.1 0.15 ---------------------- CLB 1.8 0.14 NER -1.9 -0.14 MON -3.2 -0.23 PHI -8.2 -0.68 TOR -12.2 -1.11 WEST RSL 12.1 0.81 SJE 8.1 0.58 VAN 5.4 0.39 SEA 4.4 0.31 COL 0.8 0.06 ------------------- CHV -4.6 -0.33 POR -4.9 -0.38 LAG -5.6 -0.40 DAL -8.6 -0.54
Alternative Adjusted Table through June 20 Games: (Using 1.7 Expected Home ppg, 1.0 Expected Road ppg) (Points = total differential to Expected Values) LA moves up a slot, and San Jose draws almost even with RSL. Code: Team Points Points/Game Played EAST SKC 10.1 0.72 NYK 7.8 0.52 DCU 7.7 0.48 HOU 2.5 0.18 CHI 2.1 0.15 ---------------------- CLB 1.8 0.14 NER -1.9 -0.14 MON -4.2 -0.28 PHI -8.2 -0.68 TOR -12.2 -1.02 WEST RSL 10.4 0.65 SJE 10.1 0.67 VAN 4.7 0.31 SEA 3.7 0.25 COL -0.9 -0.06 ------------------- CHV -3.3 -0.22 LAG -3.6 -0.24 POR -4.9 -0.38 DAL -8.6 -0.54
Games that Mattered of June 20, 2012: RSL 2 3 LAG HOU 3 3 TFC COL 1 2 SJE SEA 1 1 SKC VCW 1 1 NYR Schedule Adjusted Table after June 20, 2012: East ======== SKC 8 (+1) NYR 6 (+1) HOU 5 (-2) -------------- DCU 3 CLB 1 -------------- CHI 0 MTL -3 NER -4 PHU -10 TFC -14 (+1) West ========= SJE 9 (+3) RSL 8 (-3) VCW -1 (-2) --------------- COL -2 (-3) SEA -2 (-2) --------------- LAG -4 (+3) POT -8 CHV -9 FCD -11
Alternative Adjusted Table through June 24 Games: (Using 1.7 Expected Home ppg, 1.0 Expected Road ppg) (Points = total differential to Expected Values) Chicago moves up a spot in the East, while San Jose and LA move up a spot in the West. San Jose now has the best overall performance, followed by SKC. Note that this table shows the DCU is behind SKC and NY even though in the MLS table they are ahead, that is because DC has played so many more home games compared to SKC and NY. Code: Team Points Points/Game Played EAST SKC 9.1 0.61 NYK 9.1 0.57 DCU 6.7 0.39 CHI 3.4 0.23 HOU 1.5 0.10 ---------------------- CLB 0.8 0.06 NER -1.9 -0.13 MON -2.9 -0.18 PHI -6.9 -0.53 TOR -12.9 -0.99 WEST SJE 12.1 0.76 RSL 8.7 0.51 VAN 3.7 0.23 SEA 2.7 0.17 COL -0.9 -0.06 ------------------- LAG -2.3 -0.14 CHV -3.3 -0.21 POR -3.6 -0.26 DAL -9.3 -0.55
Schedule Adjusted Table for Weekend ending 6/24/12: Results that mattered: TFC 2 - 2 NER FCD 0 - 0 CHV RSL 1 - 2 SJE Table after 6/24/12: East ======= SKC 8 NYR 6 HOU 5 ------------ DCU 3 CLB 1 ------------ CHI 0 MTL -3 NER -3 (+1) PHU -10 TFC -16 (-2) West ========= SJE 12 (+3) RSL 5 (-3) VCW -1 --------------- COL -2 SEA -2 --------------- LAG -4 POT -8 CHV -8 (+1) FCD -13 (-2)
Schedule Adjusted Table, Game of 6/27/12: MTL 0 - 3 TFC Table after the game on 6/27/12: East ======= SKC 8 NYR 6 HOU 5 ------------ DCU 3 CLB 1 ------------ CHI 0 NER -3 MTL -6 (-3) PHU -10 TFC -13 (+3) West ======== SJE 12 RSL 5 VCW -1 -------------- COL -2 SEA -2 -------------- LAG -4 POT -8 CHV -8 FCD -13
Schedule Adjusted Table, Game of 6/29/12: SKC 0 - 1 CHI Table after the game on 6/29/12: East ======= NYR 6 SKC 5 (-3) HOU 5 ------------ DCU 3 CHI 3 (+3) ------------ CLB 1 NER -3 MTL -6 PHU -10 TFC -13 West ======== SJE 12 RSL 5 VCW -1 -------------- COL -2 SEA -2 -------------- LAG -4 POT -8 CHV -8 FCD -13
Alternative Adjusted Table through June 30 Games: (Using 1.7 Expected Home ppg, 1.0 Expected Road ppg) (Points = total differential to Expected Values) KC drops 2 spots in the East, while there are no changes in the relative position of anyone in the West. San Jose is starting to stretch out their lead in terms of points per game earned. Code: Team Points Points/Game Played EAST NYK 9.1 0.54 DCU 8.0 0.44 SKC 7.4 0.46 CHI 5.4 0.34 HOU 2.8 0.18 ---------------------- CLB 2.1 0.14 NER -2.6 -0.16 MON -5.6 -0.31 PHI -7.9 -0.56 TOR -11.6 -0.77 WEST SJE 13.4 0.79 RSL 7.7 0.43 VAN 3.7 0.23 SEA 2.7 0.16 COL 0.4 0.02 ------------------- LAG -3.3 -0.19 CHV -3.3 -0.21 POR -4.6 -0.31 DAL -9.3 -0.55
Schedule Adjusted table, games of 6/30/12. Results that mattered: TFC 1 - 1 NYR NER 2 - 2 SEA Table after 6/30/12: East ======= NYR 7 (+1) SKC 5 HOU 5 ------------ DCU 3 CHI 3 ------------ CLB 1 NER -5 (-2) MTL -6 PHU -10 TFC -15 (-2) West ======== SJE 12 RSL 5 VCW -1 -------------- SEA -1 (+1) COL -2 -------------- LAG -4 POT -8 CHV -8 FCD -13
Schedule Adjusted table, games of 7/3/12. Result that mattered: HOU 0 - 0 CHI Table after 7/3/12: East ======= NYR 7 SKC 5 CHI 4 (+1) ------------ DCU 3 HOU 3 (-2) ------------ CLB 1 NER -5 MTL -6 PHU -10 TFC -15 West ======== SJE 12 RSL 5 VCW -1 -------------- SEA -1 COL -2 -------------- LAG -4 POT -8 CHV -8 FCD -13
Schedule Adjusted Table, 7/4/12: [Insert fireworks here] Games that mattered on 7/4/12: MTL 1 - 3 SKC FCD 1 - 1 TFC COL 0 - 1 VCW RSL 0 - 0 SEA LAG 1 - 2 PHU Table after 7/4/12: East ======= SKC 8 (+3) NYR 7 CHI 4 ----------- DCU 3 HOU 3 ----------- CLB 1 NER -5 PHU -7 (+3) MTL -9 (-3) TFC -14 (+1) West ======== SJE 12 RSL 3 (-2) VCW 2 (+3) ------------- SEA 0 (+1) COL -5 (-3) ------------- LAG -7 (-3) POT -8 CHV -8 FCD -15 (-2)
Alternative Adjusted Table through July 4 Games: (Using 1.7 Expected Home ppg, 1.0 Expected Road ppg) (Points = total differential to Expected Values) KC jumps to the top in the East, Columbus jumps over Houston for 5th in the East and Philly moves up a spot. In the West, LA drops two spots. Code: Team Points Points/Game Played EAST SKC 9.4 0.55 NYK 9.1 0.54 DCU 8.0 0.44 CHI 5.4 0.32 CLB 2.1 0.14 --------------------- HOU 2.1 0.12 NER -2.6 -0.16 PHI -5.9 -0.39 MON -7.3 -0.38 TOR -11.6 -0.73 WEST SJE 12.4 0.69 RSL 7.0 0.37 VAN 5.7 0.34 SEA 2.7 0.15 COL -1.3 -0.08 ------------------- CHV -3.3 -0.21 POR -3.3 -0.21 LAG -5.0 -0.28 DAL -10.0 -0.56
Schedule Adjusted Table After 7/7/12 Road Results on 7/7/12: SKC 0 - 0 HOU FCD 0 - 0 SJE CHV 0 - 0 VCW Table after 7/7/12 East ======= NYR 7 SKC 6 (-2) HOU 4 (+1) ------- CHI 4 DCU 3 ------- CLB 1 NER -5 PHU -7 MTL -9 TFC -14 West ======= SJE 13 (+1) VCW 3 (+1) RSL 3 ------- SEA 0 COL -5 ------- LAG -7 POT -8 CHV -10 (-2) FCD -17 (-2)
Alternative Adjusted Table through July 8 Games: (Using 1.7 Expected Home ppg, 1.0 Expected Road ppg) (Points = total differential to Expected Values) Minimal movement - Columbus drops a spot, LA moves up two spots. Code: Team Points Points/Game Played EAST SKC 8.7 0.48 NYK 8.1 0.45 DCU 8.0 0.44 CHI 3.7 0.21 HOU 2.1 0.12 ---------------------- CLB 1.1 0.07 NER -1.3 -0.08 PHI -4.6 -0.29 MON -6.0 -0.30 TOR -12.6 -0.74 WEST SJE 12.4 0.65 RSL 8.3 0.42 VAN 5.7 0.32 SEA 4.0 0.21 COL -2.3 -0.13 ------------------- LAG -3.0 -0.16 CHV -4.0 -0.24 POR -4.3 -0.25 DAL -10.7 -0.56
Schedule Adjusted Table After 7/8/12 Road Results on 7/8/12: CHI 0 - 3 LAG Table after 7/8/12 East ======= NYR 7 SKC 6 HOU 4 ------- DCU 3 CHI 1 (-3) ------- CLB 1 NER -5 PHU -7 MTL -9 TFC -14 West ======= SJE 13 VCW 3 RSL 3 ------- SEA 0 LAG -4 (+3) ------- COL -5 POT -8 CHV -10 FCD -17
Some stats so far: Total Games in the season: 323 Games played so far: 172 (53%) Home wins: 88 (51%) Draws: 38 (22%) Away wins: 46 (27%)
