Crunching the Numbers after Chicago- Here are some more geeky stats coming out of last night's match.
It's the personal touch and care that gets through to people. It may work even better if you send them in red envelopes.
I'm a stats nerd, too. But, context is essential and inference has to be cautious. For instance, when looking at the high shots on goal percentages for midfielders, that may be a manifestation of RSL's strong tendency to look inside the 18 for a shot. Those shots are going to be much more likely taken by Forwards. The Midfielders, therefore, are probably taking shots that are better than the thing that Kreis doubtless pounds into their head: Look for the pass to the forward on the run towards goal. That is, the shot was so open (the goal so available) that it simply had to be taken. The Forwards, however, are getting closed down tightly when receiving the ball, they have few options but know that they must make a try, they are close, a little luck and it's a goal, so they shoot, maybe a deflection, maybe a rebound, and it's in. So, they are taking worse shots because worse shots are all that are available. But, their job is to shoot, so they do, even when the chances are lower.
I interviewed RSL Strength and Conditioning coach Dan Barlow about the mi Coach training system that the team has started to use. Read about it here.
pretty cool stuff, i imagine there is going to be a massive shift in the data when comparing game situations and practice situations. this can help coaches find ways to replicate game situations rather than letting players get complacent with practice situations. the added stress and motivational forces that a player experiences immediately before and during a game are something that you always here cant be replicated. it was a tangible thing that you often heard reflected in "you can practice all you want, but to really get better you need game time." well maybe this system will help put numbers and data towards describing just what makes the game situation so different physiologically compared to a practice session. then coaches can construct practice sessions to better mirror that.
Here is my latest Monday morning article. Crunching the Numbers- San Jose I also had the chance to interview Garth Lagerwey to talk with him about his thoughts on stats in general and the team's use of statistical analysis. You can find that on RSL Soapbox
This is pretty amazing to me: It seems like just surfing the net it takes an incredible amount of effort to even find small amounts of general information on players (when we get rumors about who the team is scouting). It's even crazier when you consider the millions of kids/players that exist outside this country on other continents who are playing and vying for a dream scenario. That's a huge amount of data that has to be collected and organized in a usable fashion. Given the resources (or more precisely, the lack there of) a lot of countries have for those types of things it's incredible such a system exists.
To expand on what I wrote in the article, there are various sources around the world that collect the data. From the sounds of it, there wasn't one source that has all the data. Depending on where the player was playing, they would have to go different places to find out the information that they were looking for. Garth said though that for the most part, Africa is a big black hole because there are no sources collecting the data there.
Well ya, I can imagine one company trying to do all that would be impossible. Still pretty cool though.
I had some of these numbers in the Forward thread but here is the current stats on our striker partnerships.
Very good observations, I completely agree with the analysis. Let's also not forget that while we might see the retirement/departure of Sabo, Morales, Borchers, Rimando, etc, they will also open up a HUGE amount of salary space. A meaty portion of that will probably go to giving raises to these youngsters should they grow into the players we all hope they can be, but there should still be plenty available to go out and make some decent "veteran" signings should we need them.
I also liked your assessments with one disagreement. Gil. I don't see what makes him a lock for Europe, at least not in a way that would be financially beneficial to RSL. If, IF he goes to Europe it will be a lateral or even step down from MLS play. Yes, he is only 19 but shouldn't he be playing at a higher level for all of the love he gets about his possible future accomplishments? He does have 2 goals and an assist but he goes long, long stretches of games where he doesn't even touch the ball. He has disappeared more often than Wondo this season for a lot less money which is nice. Perhaps his play with the U20 team will be enough to warrant teams from Europe wanting to pay for his services but if he can't light up the MLS at 19 how on earth would he be expected to do so anywhere else that is considered steps above play in the US? I hope I am wrong but I'm not seeing it.
I really look forward to the next few years and how the players develop. If they trend in the right direction we'd be pretty set in the forward dept with Findley, Plata, Garcia, and Sandoval. Midfield I think we'd need to recruit for depth and replacing Ned/KB. I'm not convinced Alvarez is starting material so I think KB will be the bigger loss when he eventually declines or retires. Our defense overall looks good for the future, possibly needing help on the outside backs if Mansally/Palmer don't pan out. Assuming people want to stay, I think we're in a good position over the next few years and won't need to replace many parts year to year.
You make some very good points about Gil. In fact, by my geeky stats the team plays way better when he is off the field than when he is on. But there is a lot of talk about him eventually moving on. There was an article in the Trib about it today even. http://www.sltrib.com/sltrib/sports/56421378-77/gil-rsl-luis-cup.html.csp I think the key is the U-20's. If he plays well, I can see the team getting offers for him. And it really wouldn't surprise me if they take them. I think the hype for Gil is higher than what he is actually worth. My guess is that the team sees this as well and will try and sell him now while he is high. Especially with someone like Velasquez on the roster.
goob, I also don't see him leaving for Europe, but I also wouldn't be surprised if a lower level team took a shot on him. He's the type of guy that could really explode over the next few years, or fade like Adu. It's really hard to tell at this point. For the right price a team might take a shot on him.
This is why recruiting/scouting is difficult. You can't simulate how people will grow and play against top level speed/technicality/physicality etc. Often times guys that excel at lower levels top out early and have hit their ceiling.