Rational Expectations for the 2014 World Cup

Discussion in 'USA Men: News & Analysis' started by USvsIRELAND, Oct 18, 2013.

  1. canchon

    canchon Member

    Aug 22, 2008
    Brooklyn
    Club:
    Sao Paulo FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Easy, lose 2 shootouts (3 points plus the loser point) against POR and GHA, eight points easy. lol
     
  2. Reccossu

    Reccossu Member+

    Jan 31, 2005
    Birmingham
    This is certainly debatable. But Donovan was heroic in 2010. Even if he plays very well in 2014 it's not hard to beleive that he won't reach the level of 2010. Dempsey is clearly not playing anyhting close to where he was in 2010. Maybe he will get his mojo back, but in the meantime, it's probably rainbows and ponies to think that the 2014 front six are vastly improved over 2010.
     
  3. Heist

    Heist Member+

    Jun 15, 2001
    Virginia
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Robbie Findley thanks you for this vote of confidence and rewriting of history. Fabian Johnson and Aron Johannsson think you are crazy.
    Even though Jozy is not particularly on form right now, he's a much better player.
    Dempsey is as good as he was then, although you are correct he is currently not playing too well.
    Michael Bradley is just so much better now I'm not sure how you missed that.
    Jermaine Jones (even if we don't like him all that much) is miles better than Clark, Edu, Feilhaber.
    Holden had promise, but was injured.
     
  4. Editor In Chimp

    Editor In Chimp Member+

    Sep 7, 2008
    3 months of bad club form. Stop overreacting.
     
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  5. Suyuntuy

    Suyuntuy Member+

    Jul 16, 2007
    Vancouver, Canada
    The great thing now is that with proper tactics, the subs can change the game. Guys like Johannsson, Cameron, Chandler, Bedoya, Diskerud, Zusi can do a lot of damage if used the proper way, once the coach has found the hole in the other team.

    This is a solid group, even if lacking in star power. I think a good coach can make them perform beyond what many here expect.
     
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  6. Editor In Chimp

    Editor In Chimp Member+

    Sep 7, 2008
    Solid is a good word; that's a fantastic description.
     
  7. Reccossu

    Reccossu Member+

    Jan 31, 2005
    Birmingham
    I don't think I am. Clint's had two competitive matches for the nats in the last several months. He was a bottom three performer in both. I don't think you can use Clint's national team play as evidence that all is well and we should just ignore his club form.

    Maybe he will rebound. But he is definitely off right now.
     
  8. Editor In Chimp

    Editor In Chimp Member+

    Sep 7, 2008
    In those two performances, he had a direct hand in creating two goals, hit a post, and had two other shots deflected at the last instant. He was far, far better than you remember. Rewatch the games
     
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  9. Reccossu

    Reccossu Member+

    Jan 31, 2005
    Birmingham
    That does sound a lot better than I remember. I will try to research this weekend. I recall the post. But I also recall a lot of slow play and a general lack of making himself available for Cameron/beckerman. I could be clouded on that.
     
  10. Editor In Chimp

    Editor In Chimp Member+

    Sep 7, 2008
    He was definitely not at the top of his game, and did look slow at times. But even despite that, he scored a PK and hit a post in Costa Rica, and very nearly sent LD through on goal twice in the second half were it not for last ditch deflections.

    Against Mexico, he had one very dangerous shot in the 1st half that only a deflection prevented from going in. He saved a ball from going out to touch with a great hustle play which directly led to LD's goal. He redirected ever so slightly Mix's cross into LD's path for the 2nd, and drew a PK which he subsequently, horribly missed.

    That's a lot of productivity for a guy who was probably playing at about 50-60% of his normal level. I have zero doubts about him in terms of being ready and in form next summer. He's the captain; he'll drive himself to be ready to captain his country at a World Cup.

    Ditto LD. This is their swan song at the international level; they're going to do everything possible to go out strong.
     
  11. Reccossu

    Reccossu Member+

    Jan 31, 2005
    Birmingham
    I respect your confidence. I hope you are right.
     
  12. drdi

    drdi Member

    Jun 6, 2002
    Porto
    Club:
    FC Porto
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    in Brazil the conditions will be of equatorial heat with amazonian rain in very "diferent"grass (comparing with the european fields) and long continental trips by plane.
    the games are going to be slower, mistakes will happen, and probably european countries will not be confortable playing in such tropical environement.
    i think Portugal and the USA have the same probabilities to go to the 1/8, ghana a little bit less and even Germany has not the 75% probability to go to the 1/8- they have perhaps 65%.
    with bad luck we do not pass to the next level.(50%)
    with normal luck we can go to the quarters (25%)
    with luck we can go to the semifinals(10%)
    with a lot of luck we can go to the final5(%)
    the 10 % left is to reach the 1/8 finals
    i do not think we can win yet- in 2018 yes, i think we have a small but real possibility to be WC
     
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  13. Stan Collins

    Stan Collins Member+

    Feb 26, 1999
    Silver Spring, MD
    #388 Stan Collins, Dec 20, 2013
    Last edited: Dec 20, 2013
    And for most of the last year and a half or so, it's been almost uncanny how often they have. It didn't even seem to matter which much guys we brought in, they improved things game after game, like 90% of the time.

    I wonder if some of it isn't improved team conditioning--we manage to work the opponents hard enough that the guys coming in fresh off the bench (who often aren't a big dropoff over the starters they came in for) are working against tired opposition, while meanwhile having players to work off of that could still produce comparatively well. Because there were really two trends I saw over and over in our good stretch, the US being the better team in the last 10-15 minutes, and the subs having an impact. I suspect they're connected to a degree.

    I also dovetail that with drdi's point about European teams, being out of their element, generally not doing as well as many people might think. I would not bet that high odds against the US scoring in the last minutes of any of our games. (Hopefully getting to train in Miami might be of some help to us as well, along with the experience our guys have obtained in playing a lot of their road qualifiers in tropical or subtropical conditions.)
     
  14. hirtme

    hirtme Member

    Nashville SC
    May 2, 2006
    Nashville
    Club:
    --other--
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    To me by far the best bet right now is Switzerland at 125 to 1. No I don't think they have a chance to win, but I think they will at least make the last 16 at which point you can start to hedge that bet. The USA is 125 to 1 and far less likely to make the last 16. I'll take the Swiss to go further than 66 to 1 Russia too. Guess all the press bashing them as being unworthy as a seeded team has really dropped their odds.

    Another thing I found interesting is Brazil's odds dropped a tiny bit after the draw. While they got a cupcake group was there any doubt they wouldn't make the last 16? I saw the draw as very bad for Brazil's chances as their last 16 opponent is going to be extremely tough no matter what.
     
  15. tab5g

    tab5g Member+

    May 17, 2002
    Brazil could face Australia in the Round of 16.

    (Not that it is likely, but certainly either or both of Spain and the Netherlands could have a very disappointing group stage.)

    But yes, there is a very strong chance that Brazil will be facing a very tough opponent -- Spain, the Netherlands or Chile -- at the start of the knock-out round.
     
  16. OGx3

    OGx3 Member

    Mar 12, 2004
    Davis, CA USA
    Ok, I got this one. Emerge from the group stage on four points, win each of the next four matches after extra time or on PKs for four more points from the draws. We get 8 points and Deuce hoists the Cup!!!! :thumbsup:

    What's that? Just from the group stage? Fine, we'll have to settle for 7 then. :whistling:

    ~OGx3
     
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