Rational Expectations for the 2014 World Cup

Discussion in 'USA Men: News & Analysis' started by USvsIRELAND, Oct 18, 2013.

  1. USvsIRELAND

    USvsIRELAND Member+

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    I think that this was a good thread but I don't think there are any models that can predict our chances of getting out of the group until we know what that group is.

    But my question before we get our group is do we have baseline expectations?

    Even if we are in the group of death do you expect us to advance out of the group?

    If we are in the group of death and we don't advance does JK keep his job?

    For me anything less than getting out of the group is a failure, even if we are in one of the toughest groups available.


  2. Moejangles

    Moejangles Member

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    We must get out of any group we are in, even if it is the Group of death. I think making it to the round of 16 is a reasonable goal and expectation (at this point). And I think Jurgen is coaching the United States in Russia barring a pretty bad world cup. 4 points gets him 4 more years coaching the USMNT. And that is in any group.
  3. beamish

    beamish Member+

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    We're ranked 12th in Elo, but the pot system conspires against a little bit by making it harder for us to be grouped with minnows., It's probably just over a shade over 50-50 that we'll advance out of the group stage

    If we get a group of death, that is, we don't get Belgium or Switzerland from the seeds and we get Holland, Italy, England, Portugal, or France from the UEFA pot, we probably won't advance.

    Past practice (I think) is that if the team doesn't advance out of the group stage the coach gets fired, and if it does, he keeps his job at least until the next Gold Cup. We'll probably do that.
  4. onefineesq

    onefineesq Member+

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    England? Heck, I don't even think Portugal is a bad draw for us. And France is also beatable. I just don't have the same fear as you. Hell, I'd rather play Uruguay than Belgium, for example, but you seem to think Belgium is a good draw. I don't.
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  5. dcole

    dcole Member+

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    Here's the hardest group available for us (in my opinion):

    1. Brazil (in Brazil)
    2. The Netherlands
    3. Any of Chile, Ghana or the Ivory Coast

    No one in his right mind would expect us to get out of that group. I'd give us no better than a 10% chance of getting out of that group. And I wouldn't deem it a "failure" to not get out of that group.
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  6. Excellency

    Excellency Member+

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    Besler v. looie-Looie - who could resist.

    Belgium will often cave in any one game. Uruguay is never deep. If Suarez and/or Cavani are out they lose.
  7. beamish

    beamish Member+

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    I was just going off the Elo ratings, which, given the spirit of the last thread seems appropriate for this one. We have the same rating as France, and I guess it would be a 50-50 thing, but I didn't feel like explaining that last post.

    Belgium (14) wouldn't be a great team to play, but I'd rather face a team without any players with world cup experience than Uruguay (7) with home continent advantage. Still, all the matches you mention would be close run things, and I would expect the bookies to favor Belgium over the US.

    I'm not afraid of any team.
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  8. FlipsLikeAPancake

    FlipsLikeAPancake Member+

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    I am going to wait until I see our draw before I say what's reasonable to expect. Regardless, getting out of the group is always the primary goal.

    Well, the one good thing about drawing Brazil is that we couldn't then also draw Chile - you can only have one CONMEBOL team in your group.
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  9. TheyCallMeBruce

    TheyCallMeBruce Member+

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    If we draw Germany/Spain, Chile, and the Dutch, I'd be shocked to see us clear that group. If that were the case, two of Germany/Spain, Chile, and the Netherlands would have to miss the knockout rounds. Doesn't that seem less likely than the US missing the knockout rounds?
  10. beamish

    beamish Member+

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    This will be obvious to some people, but it wasn't obvious to me when I made my earlier posts. It isn't true that if you are the third best team in the group, you probably won't advance. If you're close enough to the best team and the fourth best team is bad enough the odds could be 67%/67%/66%/0%.

    So a real group of death would have one or two teams seriously favored over the US (say, Elo 1 through 4) and the rest of teams at about the same level as the US (say, Elo 5 through 20) with at least one of those teams favored over the US.
    Last edited: Oct 18, 2013
  11. Dr. Gamera

    Dr. Gamera Member+

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    Quoting my thoughts from another thread:
  12. DCUPedro

    DCUPedro Member

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    I don't know how you can say we MUST get out of any group before we even see the draw.

    This World Cup draw is a bear for us, because the seeds are so skewed, because there are new European powers like Belgium, and because the a lot of the UEFA powers figure to be in the UEFA pot.

    If we draw either Germany, Brazil, Argentina, or Spain from Pot A combined with Italy, the Netherlands, or even France/England/Portugal from the UEFA pot, it is not rational to say we MUST get out of that group. A group with two top ten ELO-rated teams is something we could advance from, but you wouldn't put money on. If we get Brazil/Netherlands, we would probably need to get a point off one of them to have a chance of advaning. How likely is that, really?

    My rational expectation, before I see the groups, is that we shock the world by playing attractive, attacking, team football and fight from whistle to whistle. I'll amend that expectation once I see the draw..
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  13. orcrist

    orcrist Member+

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    But wouldn't it be glorious?!
  14. Namdynamo

    Namdynamo Member

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    Some of you here think we're Spain/Germany/Brazil or something? o_O
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  15. tab5g

    tab5g Member+

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    Well-stated.

    My (perhaps irrational) expectations are for the team to get through the tournament without picking up a red card or giving up a PK.
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  16. Hachiko

    Hachiko The Akita on Big Soccer

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    Simulator gave me this:

    [​IMG]

    So waiter, I would like to order a second-place group finish combined with an appearance in the quarters, hold the mayo. Thanks.
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  17. tab5g

    tab5g Member+

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    Sure it would be.

    (But most people would still likely look back and talk about the "disappointing loss" that occurred at some stage of the knock-out rounds. Getting out of a group, no matter how tough, is only some baseline achievement. But more often than not, the historical analysis will be that said team didn't "go far enough" -- or "could have gone farther." Hypothetically, "Look at the US, they got out of a group with the hosts, the Dutch and the Ivory Coast (or Chile) and yet they stumbled against (team whatever) when they should/could have at least made the final 8 or semis (or whatever).

    Over-achieving is "glorious."

    But even while a team is (or might be) over-achieving, for 31 of the 32 teams, the WC will end "too soon."

    Expectations have to be kept realistic. (At least doing so, would help use later correctly identify how "glorious" some past point or WC was in the program's history.)
  18. tab5g

    tab5g Member+

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    You sure I can't super-size that order for you and have you win your group (to get an apparently easier Round of 16 opponent)?
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  19. Hachiko

    Hachiko The Akita on Big Soccer

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    As long as it's on the house. Brazil doe.
  20. oscar_in_fw

    oscar_in_fw Member

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    I doubt we would get grouped with Brazil; we will probably be one of the better teams in our "pool" and Brazil is sure to get an easy group.
  21. Hachiko

    Hachiko The Akita on Big Soccer

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    See if you can come up with something better, as per the simulator. :geek:
  22. keller4president

    keller4president Member+

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    Reaching for greatness requires lifting the chains of our rational expectations.
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  23. dcole

    dcole Member+

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    OK, but this is the thread called "Rational Expectations for the 2014 World Cup," not "Aspirations for the 2014 World Cup."
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  24. soccerusa517

    soccerusa517 Member+

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    Have to get out of the group, that should be the minimum expectation. Knockout round is icing on the cake, depends on who you play and a bit of luck. We don't have the talent/defense for a Quarter-final appearance.

    I think Klinsmann is staying on unless he resigns.
  25. keller4president

    keller4president Member+

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    I think we would have a shot to beat Chile, Ivory Coast or Ghana, and win/draw against Netherlands if we play to our best and have a fully healthy squad. So I wouldn't call it irrational to expect advancement out of that group. (Btw, I'm far more scared of Italy or France than the Netherlands.)

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