I think that this was a good thread but I don't think there are any models that can predict our chances of getting out of the group until we know what that group is. But my question before we get our group is do we have baseline expectations? Even if we are in the group of death do you expect us to advance out of the group? If we are in the group of death and we don't advance does JK keep his job? For me anything less than getting out of the group is a failure, even if we are in one of the toughest groups available.