Four years ago I used a Poisson model based on the previous five year's international match results to predict prior to the start of the Hex that the USA would finish 1st with a total of 20 pts. As this year's Hex has already started, I am a little late getting going, but I fired up my model again, and under the assumption that the results of the first round were not yet known, I calculated the expected outcome of this year's Hex as follows: Rnk Team W L D GD Pts 1 MEX 5.9 1.7 2.4 9.4 20.2 2 USA 3.9 3.4 2.7 1.0 14.5 3 HON 3.4 3.8 2.8 -1.1 12.9 4 CRC 3.3 3.8 2.9 -1.1 12.8 5 PAN 3.1 3.9 3.0 -1.7 12.3 6 JAM 2.1 5.2 2.7 -6.5 9.0 Note that this time GD is predicted cumulative goal difference over the 10 matches for each team. Rounding up, a rational expectation for the USA in this year's Hex is to win 15 pts and finish a distant second behind MEX, while qualifying just ahead a three-team dog-fight among HON, CRC, and PAN for the 3rd (automatic qualification) and 4th places (play-off with Oceana winner). Get your oxygen masks and defibrillators ready! The reduced expectations relative to last time are in part due to the poorer past results of Jurgen Klinsmann's side compared to the Bob Bradley side that preceded it, and in part due to PAN (in particular) and JAM being stronger teams than TRI and SLV were four years ago. Klinsmann and the USA team can meet rational expectations by winning 4 matches, drawing 3, and losing 3. Given 4-3-3 as the rational expectation, based on the strength of the opponent and location of the match (home or away) we can classify the USA’s upcoming Hex matches into three categories: Matches the USA must win (to meet rational expectations): vCRC, vPAN, vHON, vJAM Matches the USA can afford to draw: Jam,@CRC, @PAN Matches the USA can afford to lose: @HON, @MEX, vMEX All of which is summarized for ease of reference in the following table: Rnd Home Away Res Pts 1 HON USA L 0 2 USA CRC W 3 3 MEX USA L 3 4 JAM USA D 4 5 USA PAN W 7 6 USA HON W 10 7 CRC USA D 11 8 USA MEX L 11 9 USA JAM W 14 10 PAN USA D 15 Where Rnd indicates the Hex match day round number, Res is the required result to meet rational expectations, and Pts is the corresponding cumulative point total. So to play the rational expectations game, all you have to do is compare the USA’s actual point total to the expected Pts in the table after each round. Viewed through the lens of rational expectations, the loss @HON on match day one doesn't seem so terrible (HON were favorites), although I find it a bit depressing that the USA are calculated to be underdogs at home vs MEX on match day eight.
Interesting. Worse than the 16-18 points I estimated for the US in a different thread recently. If it plays out like this, that loss at home to Mexico in the 8th game will set up a very, very tense final two games. The US would be 3W-3L-2T after 8 games, for 11 points. Any spot between 5th and 2nd will be possible. The pressure for the last 2 matches will be immense. BigSoccer will become insane.
Thank you for that. Though I must say, how are JKs results poorer than BBs when we just had the best year ever (in terms of WPCT) for the USMNT? Goal difference may be down a bit, but not the results. Still, while we did not look terribly good Honduras, we shouldn't have expected a win there. Mexico lost both visits last cycle, and the Hondurans just had an excellent showing at the Olympics, and made the last WC. And it took a missed penalty for us to escape with a win last time. Our rational expectations should be to qualify. We should rationally expect Mexico to win the group (though they looked worse than we did). We should expect to be in a dogfight that will end with us finishing 2nd. If Donovan doesn't play much, then we should expect it to be even closer. I thoroughly agree with how you break the 10 games down: A) Need 3 points: home games: CRC, PAN, HON, JAM B) Need a draw: Jam, @CRC, Pan Bimbo C) Can afford to lose: @Hon, @Mex, MEX Of course, if we win a B or C category game, we can afford additional dropped points. And if we lose or draw a category A game, we need better results elsewhere to compensate. Still, 15 points gets us in. The early schedule is brutal. If we have 6 points after 4 matches, we are ahead of schedule. 4-5 is right on time. 3 is a bit behind, but not unmanageable. 2 or fewer is deep trouble.
I can't see Mexico blowing everyone away like that after the Jamaica game. Sure everyone has a bad game but drawing in Azteca?
"Rational" and "reasonable" are not generally good descriptors for thread titles in BS...! Nonetheless, I really think you are spot on re: the qualities of the teams and expectations. We(USMNT) should finish just above the others and a fair distance behind Mexico, based on the overall team quality... In regards to the statistical analysis, and with respect to USMNT and qualifying, don't you think a "survival" analysis is more appropriate than log-linear...!?! I'm not a Donovan apologist, but he has been our most productive player in terms of goals (and possibly more immediately relevant assists)...so... I'd love to see an analysis of our last ten years or so if we replaced Donovan with a Non-Donovan player with an average goals/assist rate...
Probably the best time of year to play in Azteca. How hot was it? Not that Jamaicans should have trouble dealing with the heat. I can't decide whether this was a good or bad result for USA. On one hand, I think its best for Mexico to sweep the table in its games, so as to now leak points to our actual rivals. If we think we have a shot at finishing ahead of Mexico, maybe its not so bad. If mexico fails to win its next away game, and we win at home against CR, our first two games went better than Mexico's.
[ Matches the USA must win (to meet rational expectations): vCRC, vPAN, vHON, vJAM Matches the USA can afford to draw: Jam,@CRC, @PAN Matches the USA can afford to lose: @HON, @MEX, vMEX All of which is summarized for ease of reference in the following table: Rnd Home Away Res Pts 1 HON USA L 0 2 USA CRC W 3 3 MEX USA L 3 4 JAM USA D 4 5 USA PAN W 7 6 USA HON W 10 7 CRC USA D 11 8 USA MEX L 11 9 USA JAM W 14 10 PAN USA D 15 .[/quote] You show us ending with 15 points which includes winning 4 points off Jamaica. We will take no points from Jamaica and end with 11 CR, PAN and USA will battle it out for a 1 week all expenses paid trip to beautiful NZ. Now, that is rational. Eventually it will come down to how bad CR and Panama are.
You show us ending with 15 points which includes winning 4 points off Jamaica. We will take no points from Jamaica and end with 11 CR, PAN and USA will battle it out for a 1 week all expenses paid trip to beautiful NZ. Now, that is rational. Eventually it will come down to how bad CR and Panama are.[/quote] Considering we took 4 points from Jamaica in the last round, and Jamaica only beat us at home thanks to two arguably out of the ordinary goals, why would it be "rational" to conclude that we will take no points from Jamaica?
Plus We were missing Donovan and Bradley the first match in Jamaica. I am thinking one or maybe both will play this time around.
Because Jamaica are an improved team. We are not. As an aside, you may have noted that Jamaica began playing us quite well when we played them here, after they went down a goal and began playing more aggressively to salvage a point. They are on an upward trajectory, we are not. Just as things have changed to make them favored, not us, our fate is in our own hands since we can put ourselves on an upward trajectory. I am not predicting the future, just saying what it looks like right now so we can decide if we need to change.
Improved or not Jamaica plays us right after playing Mexico at home. I don't think they will get 6 straight points against those two teams. We shall see.
Suppose they do. They beat us last time and tied Mexico at Azteca. Wuld you say they finish ahead of us in the table in that event, when all is said and done?
In that hypothetical world I would say yes. But as I implied in a previous post I think Donovan and/or Bradley can help us get a positive result in Jamaica. Maybe even a win.
I believe that one problem winning at the office is the condition of the field. U say Jamaica will play us there after playing Mexico there so they will be well used to the field. Our guys will need to make a big adjustment.
Strange things happen. Would be cool too see them beat Mexico and then have nothing left in the tank for us 3 says later. We should be the fresher team...
Any type of world that involves Jamaica finishing ahead of us or ahead of US and Mexico should involve lots of heads rolling everywhere. And I mean everywhere.
Jamaica is looking good, they should have won that game vs Mexico, they have better players now than the previous round. But we will see, I can see us losing @ Jamaica and winning at home. Provably not Mexico but Jamaica could finish top 3, if they can find a finisher and that is a HUGE IF. (Good thing the kid from Liverpool picked England over Jamaica) That is the one thing the models may not be able to predict, just how much improvement the English guys will bring to Jamaica.
It was about 55 degrees at game time. March, April, May, and June are their hottest months. That said, it should be around 65-75 degrees at game time when we play there.
If you go by what we think the odds are, rather than what we think the results will be.... vs. Costa Rica - W @ Mexico - L @ Jamaica - D vs. Panama - W vs. Honduras - D @ Costa Rica - L vs. Mexico - D vs. Jamaica - W @ Panama - W I count 15 points. Theoretically, this puts us in 4th place, with a chance to finish 2nd or 3rd depending on a betting upset. I also think I'm being somewhat generous to suggest that the oddsmakers would make a draw the most likely outcome of our match in Jamaica. Personally, my belief is that we finish 4th.
Our depth always saved us, and i think we will outlast all potential contenders (CRC, Jam, Hon) again this year. We've got our problems, they've got their problems too. I can see Mex waking up and running all other teams over, but those above-mentioned three will be dropping unexpected points - i can guarantee it.
I agree. US and Mexico might get an occasional tie at home but usually the other countries manage to lose once at home.
In my opinion CRC and Hon are the best candidates for dropping unexpected points this year. Jam seems to be quite consistent lately, they look very confident.