Promotion and Relegation Between Levels Comments and Questions

Discussion in 'League Championship' started by EvanJ, Jan 1, 2009.

  1. EvanJ

    EvanJ Member+

    Manchester United
    United States
    Mar 30, 2004
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    In a League Championship season, what's the probability that the best of the three teams that was in League One the previous season will finish ahead of at least one of the three teams that was in the EPL the previous season? Currently Swansea City doesn't have much chance of promotion to the EPL this season but they're still in the top half of the table and in much better shape than Nottingham Forest and Doncaster Rovers one or both of whom could be relegated back to League One.

    Derby County, who did horribly in the EPL last season, is currently 18th in League Championship. Is it rare for a team to go from EPL to the botttom third of the League Championship one year later like that?

    When was the most recent season in the EPL or other name for the top level if you go back to before it was the EPL (if the club has ever been there) for every club in League Championship? I'll start with I found out easily:

    Derby County: 2007-2008
    Reading: 2007-2008
    Birmingham City: 2007-2008
    Sheffield United: 2006-2007
    Charlton Athletic: 2006-2007
    Watford: 2006-2007
    Crystal Palace: 2004-2005
    Norwich City: 2004-2005
    Southampton: 2004-2005
    Wolverhampton Wanderers: 2003-2004
    Ipswich Town: 2001-2002

    Can somebody do Barnsley, Blackpool, Bristol City, Burnley, Cardiff City, Coventry City, Plymouth Argyle, Preston North End, Queens Park Rangers, Sheffield Wednesday, and Swansea City?
     
  2. SheffWedFan

    SheffWedFan Member

    Dec 23, 2005
    Thousand Oaks, CA
    Club:
    Sheffield Wednesday FC
    Nat'l Team:
    England
    BARNSLEY - last in top flight in 1997/98
    BIRMINGHAM CITY - last in top flight in 2007/08
    BLACKPOOL - last in top flight in 1970/71
    BRISTOL CITY - last in top flight in 1979/80
    BURNLEY - last in top flight in 1975/76
    CARDIFF CITY - last in top flight in 1961/62
    CHARLTON ATHLETIC - last in top flight in 2006/07
    COVENTRY CITY - last in top flight in 2000/01
    CRYSTAL PALACE - last in top flight in 2004/05
    DERBY COUNTY - last in top flight in 2007/08
    DONCASTER ROVERS - have NEVER played in top division. The last time they were even at this level (prior to this year) was 1957
    IPSWICH TOWN - last in top flight in 2001/02
    NORWICH CITY - last in top flight in 2004/05
    NOTTINGHAM FOREST - last in top flight in 1998/99
    PLYMOUTH ARGYLE - have NEVER played in the top division. Have been at this level since 2004/05
    PRESTON NORTH END - last in top flight in 1960/61
    QUEEN'S PARK RANGERS - last in top flight in 1995/96
    READING - last in top flight in 2007/08
    SHEFFIELD UNITED - last in top flight in 2006/07
    SHEFFIELD WEDNESDAY - last in top flight in 1999/2000
    SOUTHAMPTON - last in top flight in 2004/05
    SWANSEA CITY - last in top flight in 1982/83
    WATFORD - last in top flight in 2006/07
    WOLVERHAMPTON WANDERERS - last in top flight in 2003/04
     
  3. SheffWedFan

    SheffWedFan Member

    Dec 23, 2005
    Thousand Oaks, CA
    Club:
    Sheffield Wednesday FC
    Nat'l Team:
    England
    1981/82
    Previous year’s Division 3 Champions: Rotherham United – 7th
    Bottom of Division 1 in previous year: Crystal Palace – 15th

    1982/83
    Previous year’s Division 3 Champions: Burnley – 21st (relegated)
    Bottom of Division 1 in previous year: Middlesbrough – 16th

    1983/84
    Previous year’s Division 3 Champions: Portsmouth – 16th
    Bottom of Division 1 in previous year: Brighton and Hove Albion – 9th

    1984/85
    Previous year’s Division 3 Champions: Oxford United – 1st (promoted)
    Bottom of Division 1 in previous year: Wolverhampton Wanderers – 22nd (relegated)

    1985/86
    Previous year’s Division 3 Champions: Bradford City – 13th
    Bottom of Division 1 in previous year: Stoke City – 10th

    1986/87
    Previous year’s Division 3 Champions: Reading – 13th
    Bottom of Division 1 in previous year: West Bromwich Albion – 15th

    1987/88
    Previous year’s Division 3 Champions: Bournemouth – 17th
    Bottom of Division 1 in previous year: Aston Villa – 2nd (promoted)

    1988/89
    Previous year’s Division 3 Champions: Sunderland – 11th
    Bottom of Division 1 in previous year: Oxford United – 17th

    1989/90
    Previous year’s Division 3 Champions: Wolverhampton Wanderers – 10th
    Bottom of Division 1 in previous year: Newcastle United – 3rd

    1990/91
    Previous year’s Division 3 Champions: Bristol Rovers – 13th
    Bottom of Division 1 in previous year: Millwall – 5th

    1991/92
    Previous year’s Division 3 Champions: Cambridge United – 5th
    Bottom of Division 1 in previous year: Derby County – 3rd

    1992/93
    Previous year’s Division 3 Champions: Brentford – 22nd (relegared)
    Bottom of Division 1 in previous year: West Ham United – 2nd (promoted)

    1993/94
    Previous year’s Division 2 Champions: Stoke City – 10th
    Bottom of Premier League in previous year: Nottingham Forest – 2nd (promoted)

    1994/95
    Previous year’s Division 2 Champions: Reading – 2nd (not promoted, lost in playoffs)
    Bottom of Premier League in previous year: Swindon Town – 21st (relegated)

    1995/96
    Previous year’s Division 2 Champions: Birmingham City – 15th
    Bottom of Premier League in previous year: Ipswich Town – 7th

    1996/97
    Previous year’s Division 2 Champions: Swindon Town – 19th
    Bottom of Premier League in previous year: Bolton Wanderers – 1st (promoted)

    1997/98
    Previous year’s Division 2 Champions: Bury - 17th
    Bottom of Premier League in previous year: Nottingham Forest – 1st (promoted)

    1998/99
    Previous year’s Division 2 Champions: Watford – 5th (promoted through playoffs)
    Bottom of Premier League in previous year: Crystal Palace – 14th

    1999/2000
    Previous year’s Division 2 Champions: Fulham – 9th
    Bottom of Premier League in previous year: Nottingham Forest – 14th

    2000/01
    Previous year’s Division 2 Champions: Preston North End – 4th
    Bottom of Premier League in previous year: Watford – 9th

    2001/02
    Previous year’s Division 2 Champions: Millwall – 4th
    Bottom of Premier League in previous year: Bradford City – 15th

    2002/03
    Previous year’s Division 2 Champions: Brighton and Hove Albion – 23rd (relegated)
    Bottom of Premier League in previous year: Leicester City - 2nd (promoted)

    2003/04
    Previous year’s Division 2 Champions: Wigan Athletic – 7th
    Bottom of Premier League in previous year: Sunderland – 3rd

    2004/05
    Previous year’s Division 2 Champions: Plymouth Argyle – 17th
    Bottom of Premier League in previous year: Wolverhampton Wanderers – 9th

    2005/06
    Previous year’s League 1 Champions: Luton Town – 10th
    Bottom of Premier League in previous year: Southampton – 12th

    2006/07
    Previous year’s League 1 Champions: Southend United – 22nd (relegated)
    Bottom of Premier League in previous year: Sunderland – 1st (promoted)

    2007/08
    Previous year’s League 1 Champions: Scunthorpe United – 23rd (relegated)
    Bottom of Premier League in previous year: Watford – 6th

    2008/09
    Previous year’s League 1 Champions: Swansea City (currently 11th)
    Bottom of Premier League in previous year: Derby County (currently 18th)

    Not sure what that tells you, but it's pretty interesting!
     
  4. RichardL

    RichardL BigSoccer Supporter

    May 2, 2001
    Berkshire
    Club:
    Reading FC
    Nat'l Team:
    England
    Very high, in fact it's pretty much taken for granted.

    I started doing what SheffWedFan had done or that exact question, but assuming you meant "the team that did best/worst in the next season" rather than comparing last in premier v champions of Lg 1, but found it a little futile and stopped - after 7 seasons or 81/2 there had only been two where all three promoted clubs had failed to finish higher than at least one relegated one.

    Averaging out over those 7 seasons, promoted clubs actually achieved, on average, a fractionally higher placing than relegated ones - both finishing an average 10th or 11th. (10.5)


    So I span on a bit, and just looked at the last 10 years, and there does seem to be a shift.
    The first three years told a similar story, with at least two of the three promoted clubs doing better than the worst relegated team. In the last seven years though, no more than one of the promoted teams has done better than the relegated sides in any season. In two seasons all of the relegated sides did better than all of the promoted ones.


    I think there are a couple of reasons for this. The obvious one is parachute money, and the higher standard of the premiership in general, meaning that unless clubs have to offload loads of players, they will usually be considerably better than most championship clubs.

    The other is that the championship looks to be pulling away slightly from League 1. 10 years ago the median league 1 crowd was about 5,500, compared to about 13,500 in the championship. The league 1 median has risen by about 1000, but has gone up by nearly 4000 in the championship. While promoted clubs don't face anything like the same problems that clubs promoted to the premier do in bridging the gap (only 5 of the 30 clubs promoted from league 1 in the last 10 years have gone straight back down) it is harder than it was.

    Relegated teams now on average, finish 8th or 9th (8.5), while promoted ones typically finish 14th (13.9).
     
  5. JackBastard

    JackBastard Member

    Jan 21, 2007
    Bridgend
    Club:
    Swansea City AFC
    Nat'l Team:
    Wales
    I was going to post something similar, although I haven't actually done any research, that you'll actually find it very rare for teams to come straight up from L1 and go to the Premiership. Even Wigan, Fulham & Reading, who spent a lot of money for this division, didn't manage it straight away.

    Looking at those D3 Champions since 96/97, only Wigan & Fulham (Prem) and Plymouth & Preston are still either at this level or above. (Discouting us, of course, because we have to be!). It is getting increasingly difficult for medium-sized clubs like Doncaster, Millwall, Southend etc. to establish themselves in the Championship. Over the last few seasons Rotherham, Gillingham, Crewe, Walsall, Luton, Southend & Scunthorpe have all come up, and gone back down within a season or two.
     
  6. RichardL

    RichardL BigSoccer Supporter

    May 2, 2001
    Berkshire
    Club:
    Reading FC
    Nat'l Team:
    England
    Off topic, but it's one of the "problems" (there are obviously advantages) of having a rich chairman is that people seem to assume we got promotion through spending heavily for the championship, and we were bankrolled at substantial loss to go up.

    In fact we had a below average wage bill for the division when we went up, and spent far less on the team than probably all the other promotion contenders. The only expensive players we had were Convey at £750,000 and Lita for £1 million, and they weren't bought in the same season.
     
  7. glennaldo_sf

    glennaldo_sf Member+

    Houston Dynamo, Penang FC, Al Duhail
    United States
    Nov 25, 2004
    Doha, Qatar
    Club:
    FL Fart Vang Hedmark
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    In general, teams being relegated from the premiership fare much better than teams promoted from League 1. It is very uncommon for teams to gain double-promotion within one season, in fact it only really happens once in a blue moon. Watford did it about 10 years agon, Bristol City almost did it last season, I can't think of anyone else who has done it in that quick a space of time. Maybe Manchester City...

    On the other hand, it's quite usually for at least 1, 2 or sometimes all three relegated clubs to jump straight back up. Look at this season, Reading + Birmingham are the favorites to go straight back up, while Doncaster and Nottingham could go down. Swansea/Derby is the obvious outlier. However, Derby were clearly not prepared for promotion to the premiership last season and are currently performing accordingly.
     
  8. RichardL

    RichardL BigSoccer Supporter

    May 2, 2001
    Berkshire
    Club:
    Reading FC
    Nat'l Team:
    England
    it's certainly less common, but again going back to 81/82 as a nominal start point, it's happened 7 times since then - Oxford 85, Derby 87, Middlesbrough 88, Sheffield United 90, Notts County 91, Watford 98 and Man City 99.
     
  9. JackBastard

    JackBastard Member

    Jan 21, 2007
    Bridgend
    Club:
    Swansea City AFC
    Nat'l Team:
    Wales
    It's something that I've heard quite a lot in regards to Reading, however he did still build a stadium for you, and did provide a lot of money towards wages. I understand though that he is trying to make the club self-sufficient, which can only be a good thing.

    He's not done too badly for a man who used to own Auto Trader though!
     
  10. RichardL

    RichardL BigSoccer Supporter

    May 2, 2001
    Berkshire
    Club:
    Reading FC
    Nat'l Team:
    England
    It's an assumption people make. I think he bankrolled the debts in his earlier days (which were small by today's figures) but the stadium was built with a loan from him, which is still there on the books as a loan. And he has said he expects it to be paid back. Much of the stadium cost was actually thanks to the council as they gave us a huge site for £1, and we sold a chunk of it off to retailers for about £20 million.

    The sad thing is that there are so many new fans these days who see how premiership clubs work with sugar daddies pumping in millions for a taste of glory, and assume that's how all chairman should run clubs. The assumptions being that a) - he can afford it so he should spend it like a "proper" chairman, and b) even if we can't afford it, it would be better to "go for broke" than accept mediocrity.

    Yes, even at a club that's spent all but 2 years out of 138 outside the top division, there are fans who regard anything less than premiership football as "unacceptable"

    Autotrader is massive. There are autotraders all around the world.
     
  11. The Biscuitman

    The Biscuitman Member+

    Jul 4, 2007
    Club:
    Reading FC
    Season before we got promoted we had the 3rd lowest wage bill in the divison. Fair few of our starting XI during the promotion season were eather free transfers or 'bargain buys'. Doyle, Shorey, Hahnemann, Ivar, Little, Kitson, Sonko etc all spring to mind.

    Shame for most neutral's to think we spent our way up because actually it was one hell of an achievment done mostly by spending very little money.
     
  12. ranny fash

    ranny fash Member

    May 18, 2005
    notts
    Club:
    Nottingham Forest FC
    Reading and Birmingham won't slip down the table.

    Swansea are one of the better teams in the division - they have some very good players and play good football. They will comfortably finish well above Derby, and could conceivably get in the playoffs.

    Forest are better than Derby as well, and we all know it in the East mids. We just needed better leadership and direction - look at us now, we are the form team of the division. We also have much better players than the sheep despite having been 2 divisions below them last year. How did Paul Jewell manage that?! They do have a smattering of good players though (Paul Green, Giles Barnes, Miles Addison, Nacer Barazite), so I can't totally disregard them. They have a better goalie (Bywater) than us (Smith).

    Doncaster are a funny one, because despite their league position and the fact they were in the godawful 3rd tier last season, they are one of the better footballing sides in the division. They certainly won't finish bottom, but might struggle to get any higher than just above the bottom 3, because they have a small squad with limited quality despite their passing game. They also don't have the finance to get better players in unless they strike it lucky. They may still finish above Derby though!
     
  13. CrewDust

    CrewDust Member

    May 6, 1999
    Columbus, Ohio
    Club:
    Columbus Crew
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    There are three tradional big clubs that are staring at the drop right now.
     
  14. EPJr

    EPJr Member+

    Los Angeles FC
    United States
    Mar 21, 2009
    Richmond VA
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
  15. TOareaFan

    TOareaFan Member+

    Jun 19, 2008
    Greater Toronto Area
    Club:
    Toronto FC
    Nat'l Team:
    Canada

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