Projected 2012 At-Larges

Discussion in 'College & Amateur Soccer' started by jdgaucho, Nov 11, 2012.

  1. jdgaucho

    jdgaucho Member

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    Who ya got? If it were up to me, these would be my at-larges

    Atlantic-10: Charlotte, Xavier, VCU (3)
    ACC: North Carolina, Wake Forest, Boston College, Virginia (4)
    Big East: Georgetown, Connecticut, Marquette, Louisville, St. Johns (5)
    Big South: Coastal Carolina (1)
    Big Ten: Indiana, Michigan (2)
    Big West: UC Davis (1)
    Colonial: Drexel, Old Dominion (2)
    C-USA: SMU, UAB, Kentucky (3)
    Ivy: Brown (1)
    MAAC: Loyola (1)
    MVC: SIU Edwardsville (1)
    MPSF: New Mexico (1)
    Pac-12: Washington (1)

    South Florida and Rutgers being near the bottom of their BE division is why I'd leave them out.


  2. Sandon Mibut

    Sandon Mibut Member+

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    Here are the top 27 per the RPI, per GauchoDan, as of a 7:00 ET on 11/11. I'll let you decide if Rutgers .500 record is enough with their RPI. Next to the record is the team's Strength of Schedule ranking.

    4. Georgetown 17-3-1 9
    7. Connecticut 15-3-1 19
    8. Marquette 16-3-1 33
    9. North Carolina 15-3-2 25
    11. Va. Commonwealth 12-3-5 11
    12. Louisville 12-5-1 6
    14. New Mexico 16-3-1 47
    15. Virginia 9-6-4 2
    16. Wake Forest 11-3-5 22
    17. Charlotte 14-3-3 42

    18. Washington 12-4-3 30
    19. Indiana 11-5-3 14
    22. St. John’s 10-4-4 28
    23. Southern Methodist 10-5-4 16
    24. Old Dominion 11-3-2 64
    25. Drexel 12-3-3 71
    27. Rutgers 7-7-1 3
    28. Michigan 10-9-1 4
    29. Brown 12-2-3 114
    30. Alabama-Birmingham 10-7-2 17

    32. Xavier 13-2-5 89
    35. South Florida 8-5-4 24
    36. Coastal Carolina 18-2-2 155
    37. Boston College 8-5-5 29
    38. SIU-Edwardsville 13-7-0 53
    39. Kentucky 10-8-2 18
    40. Loyola (MD) 13-6-1 69

    ----

    Here are the first 10 on the outside (or 11 if you consider .500 teams worthy of an at-large bid).

    41. Villanova 12-6-2 67
    42. UC Davis 10-7-4 36
    44. Hofstra 12-5-4 76
    45. Denver 11-6-3 57
    46. Syracuse 12-6-0 80
    47. Northwestern 11-5-4 75
    48. James Madison 9-7-3 37
    49. California 8-7-3 31
    50. Campbell 12-5-2 92
    51. Duke 8-8-2 23
    52. Cal Poly 11-7-1 64
  3. Well Duh

    Well Duh Member

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    Wishful thinking
  4. jdgaucho

    jdgaucho Member

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    It's not Rutgers' .500 record that does it; it's that they finished near the bottom of their own division.


  5. jdgaucho

    jdgaucho Member

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    hardly.

    we saw New Mexico be given a 10 seed last year despite being ranked #1 and undefeated as well as having a top-5 rpi.

    The Big East won't be hogging every single at-large bid. someone is going to get snubbed from that league.
    unnamedsource repped this.
  6. Sandon Mibut

    Sandon Mibut Member+

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    But look at their strength of schedule?

    Is the committee going to punish them for having the third-toughest schedule - by their metric of record - in the country?

    Personally, I don't think .500 teams should get an at-large bid. I'd like the NCAA to change that criteria. But as long as .500 teams can be considered, I think a team with a 27 RPI and a 3 SOS should be in the discussion.
  7. collegesoccer

    collegesoccer Member

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    They will punish them for only playing 15 games and not making their playoffs with a .500 record and only 1 good win - Louisville.
  8. Sandon Mibut

    Sandon Mibut Member+

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    Hey, it's better than Akron's best win! ;)
  9. jdgaucho

    jdgaucho Member

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    It's true you should be rewarded for a strong schedule. It's also true you still need to win games at the end of the day. If they were one game over .500, no problem.

    I do find it funny that everyone would project the 6th place team within the Blue division (Rutgers) to make the field while the 2nd place team in the same division (Syracuse), who won their h2h matchup, be left out. Yes I know Syracuse's numbers are much weaker relatively but it's still an oddity.

    If Rutgers gets the nod, does South Florida go as well? And who do they replace??
  10. Well Duh

    Well Duh Member

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    but VA finishing 6th in the ACC with a SOS of 2 is fine ...... right?

    Rutgers has a SOS of 3.....

    if either goes they go as the RPi's >42 and don't really replace anyone.....
  11. jiggaman123

    jiggaman123 Member

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    What do you think the chances are that the Big Ten will have three or four teams in ?
  12. collegesoccer

    collegesoccer Member

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    Atlantic-10: Charlotte, VCU, Xavier (3)
    ACC: UNC, Wake Forest, Virginia, Boston College (4)
    Big East: Georgetown, UConn, Marquette, Louisville, St. Johns, South Florida (6)
    Big South: Coastal Carolina (1)
    Big Ten: Indiana, Michigan, Northwestern (3)
    Big West: UC Davis (1)
    Colonial: Drexel, Old Dominion (2)
    C-USA - SMU, UAB, Kentucky (3)
    Ivy - Brown (1)
    MPSF: New Mexico (1)
    Pac-12: Washington (1)

    Couple thoughts: Left out SIUE since they were 0-4 vs. teams in tournament if you exclude Rutgers. If Rutgers included then that gives them a win so double edged sword. Coastal is 0-0 against teams in the tournament other than Winthrop so they could be on bubble even with 18 wins. Northwestern gets in with 4-1-2 record vs. top 30 tournament teams including win over #1 Notre Dame. UC Davis has to hope committee gives big credit for Tulsa win and giving them the nod for regional reasons over SIUE and Syracuse. Syracuse with only one win vs. South Florida if you eliminate Rutgers. Loyola's only win is Northridge.

    Last four in: Northwestern, Xavier, UC Davis, South Florida
    Last four out: SIUE, Syracuse, Rutgers, Loyola

    Don't think Boston College or Drexel should sleep that well either. BC has one win vs. Wake. Drexel one win vs. ODU.
  13. jiggaman123

    jiggaman123 Member

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    Does Penn State get in over Northwestern since they won the regular season Big Ten championship and also beat Northwestern at their place
  14. Well Duh

    Well Duh Member

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    Hararea repped this.
  15. jdgaucho

    jdgaucho Member

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    Virginia actually made their conference tournament; reached the semis too. They were over .500 as well.
  16. collegesoccer

    collegesoccer Member

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  17. jdgaucho

    jdgaucho Member

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    In 2011, UC Riverside (39) and Washington (43) were left out. The Big East will not get everyone in. Someone will be snubbed; happens every year.
  18. Soccer Joe

    Soccer Joe Member

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    Everyone in the ACC makes the conference tournament
    Sandon Mibut repped this.
  19. jdgaucho

    jdgaucho Member

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    all nine teams? wow. Virginia reached the semis. two ties, if I remember correctly.
  20. Sandon Mibut

    Sandon Mibut Member+

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    Everybody makes the ACC Tournament.

    Only 10 teams make the Big East Conference Tournament. Given that some conferences don't have a conference tournament, some conferences only allow a few teams in their tournament, some conferences have 15 members and others have 6, I don't think looking at where a team finished in its conference (unless its 1st) or if they made their conference tournament or not is germane since its apples and oranges so many times.
  21. jdgaucho

    jdgaucho Member

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    Any other conference comparison and I'd agree with ya. Not so much though, when the ACC vs. the Big East.
  22. headerdunce

    headerdunce Member

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    Yep UC Riverside should have been in last year. A couple of good friends were rightfully disappointed. But like you said, happens every year.
  23. Sandon Mibut

    Sandon Mibut Member+

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    Here are the Top 60 teams in the NCAA's RPI.

    Team's in bold have an automatic bid. In parenthesis next to the RPI ranking is SoccerDan's RPI ranking, which should show how close he was despite not having all the data the NCAA uses. (The NCAA has a bonus system of some sort, the formula for which they haven't fully explained, thus making it harder to replicate their rankings exactly.)

    If there isn't a number in parenthesis, the ranking is the same from the NCAA and GauchoDan.

    The final number next to the school's WLT record is the team's SOS, from GauchoDan.

    I also included the RPI and records for the teams with auto bids outside the Top 60.

    1. Notre Dame 16-3-1 1
    2. Akron 17-1-2 27
    3. Maryland 17-1-2 15
    4. Georgetown 17-3-1 9
    5. UCLA 13-2-3 8
    6. Saint Louis 16-4-0 11
    7. Connecticut 15-3-1 19
    8. Marquette 16-3-1 33
    9. (10) North Carolina 15-3-2 26
    10. (14) New Mexico 16-3-1 47

    11. (9) Creighton 15-3-2 24
    12. (13) Tulsa 13-5-1 12
    13. (12) Louisville 12-5-1 6
    14. (11) Va. Commonwealth 12-3-5 10
    15. Virginia 9-6-4 2
    16. (19) Indiana 11-5-3 14
    17. Charlotte 14-3-3 41
    18. (16) Wake Forest 11-3-5 22
    19. (18) Washington 12-4-3 30
    20. (22) St. John’s 10-4-4 28

    21. (24) Northeastern 13-2-4 78
    22. (20) Elon 15-4-2 51
    23. (21) Cornell 15-1-0 147
    24. (25) Old Dominion 11-3-2 62
    25. (39) Kentucky 10-8-2 18
    26. (35) South Florida 8-5-4 25
    27. (29) Michigan 10-9-1 4
    28. (23) Southern Methodist 10-5-4 16
    29. (27) Cal State Northridge 15-6-0 55
    30. (34) Michigan State 11-9-1 13

    31 (26) Drexel 12-3-3 72
    32. (32) Alabama-Birmingham 10-7-2 17
    33. (28) Rutgers 7-7-1 3
    34. (30) Brown 12-2-3 114
    35. (38) SIU-Edwardsville 13-7-0 53
    36. (33) Xavier 13-2-5 90
    37. (36) Coastal Carolina 18-2-2 156
    38. (37) Boston College 8-5-5 29
    39. (32) Niagara 13-1-4 130
    40. (46) Syracuse 12-6-0 80

    41. (45) Northwestern 11-5-4 74
    42. UC Davis 10-7-4 37
    43. (41) Villanova 12-6-2 67
    44. (40) Loyola (MD) 13-6-1 69
    45. (50) Duke 8-8-2 23
    46. (48) California 8-7-3 31
    47. (44) Denver 11-6-3 57
    48. (49) Campbell 12-5-2 92
    49. (47) James Madison 9-7-3 35
    50. (52) Stanford 9-8-1 36

    51. (43) UMBC 11-4-5 79
    52. (51) Cal Poly 11-7-1 64
    53. (55) Penn State 9-5-3 77
    54. (59) Santa Clara 11-6-2 88
    55. (53) Hofstra 12-5-4 76
    56. (58) Stony Brook 11-6-1 91
    57. West Virginia 9-6-2 71
    58. (56) Dayton 11-5-2 111
    59. (66) Clemson 6-9-5 20
    60. Dartmouth 9-7-0 58

    65. (54) Florida Gulf Coast 11-5-2 102
    73. (76) Winthrop 12-8-1 98
    80. (83) Cleveland State 11-5-3 160
    81. (86) San Diego 11-8-0 127
    83. (77) Air Force 10-8-4 83
    108. (87) Farleigh Dickinson 9-5-6 135
    115. (98) Lafayette 9-7-4 126
    170. (149) Western Illinois 7-8-5 186
  24. Sandon Mibut

    Sandon Mibut Member+

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    I think South Florida gets in. I don't think Rutgers does.

    Could the NCAA leave out an 18-win Coastal Carolina? They have zero quality wins and the Winthrop loss hurts. Still, 18 wins is a lot but the 156 SOS is pretty low.

    With the exception of Rutgers, I think everyone in the Top 38 gets an at-large bid.

    That leave ONE bid for teams 40-45 and I think Northwestern gets, in large part because they have a win over the No. 1 team in the country on their resume. When the committee looks at your body of work, it's always nice to have a W over the top team in the country on your resume.
  25. jdgaucho

    jdgaucho Member

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    I'll just say I am a champion of Loyola getting an at-large bid.
    Leaving a top-10 ranked team like Coastal Carolina out would be extremely harsh.

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