Thought this would be worth mentioning. The Government got shot down in its effort to avoid defaulting on its debt obligations through tax raises and cutting government expenditures by 20% (Read: pensions). Election coming up in May I believe to replace the Socrates gov. Increased difficulty from the government in raising additional capital through free markets as their Bond interest hits an all time high of ~12 % has only made things worse. The result is some analysis saying Portugal will need a bailout from the European Union or IMF in the tune of 75 to 125 billion euros. Now while the situation is difficult it is better then Greece, and better then Ireland based on recent information that was released today. Interestingly enough, Brasil ex president. Mr. Lula told Portugal to reject IMF bailout. Their current female president even said Brasil could lend a helping hand to Portugal. http://blogs.forbes.com/afontevecch...on-faces-downgrade/?partner=relatedstoriesbox The tight macroeconomic policies that IMF usually impose never really help the smaller economic countries. Also, something to note, Portugal's growth rate over the past years has been stagnate at around 1 %. Whats your guys take on this? Use IMF, or Brasil?
Brazil lending Portugal money? That's a tough one to swallow. Then again, we already had to use Rio de Janeiro as our Capital but i still don't like this. Getting IMF help will be embarrassing. Not sure, maybe the crooks in the government should just give back all the euro money they have been swindling all these years.
I was there last year right after Socrates won. I had a great laugh at his first action which was to raise taxes. How does raising taxes on the poorest EU country make any sense? Set your tax rate at a sensible number THEN make sure everyone who is supposed to pay is paying. Then remind them that we once conquered countries and ruled the seas, so quit milking from the government and do something. Be proud. Then, you have to institute laws/regulations that will enable investment in private industry so that there are jobs once they get off the government cheese. Otherwise, they will just run around being proud until they starve to death...which is not a good solution. At this point, borrowing money without a clear agenda or path to develop the economy is like being broke with a mortgage and borrowing more money so you can sit at home and watch TV for a few more months. Most of my cousins have left Portugal for England to find jobs. It's frustrating for them to be unable to find consistent jobs years after graduating. Who wants to work a McJob when you're in your 30's? They see no future as far as gainful employment...and I know they're not the only ones.
I can see another huge wave of portuguese people in their late 20's and 30's leaving Portugal to find better opportunities in USA, Canada, France, England, Germany, Brazil, etc..... Pretty sad. We are now in 2011, long past 1974. We shouldn't be in this sorry state. My Great-Grandpa went to Brazil for more opportunity, then my grandpa had to go to France, most of my uncles and cousins are in France, Switzerland, and the States. It almost feels like all the hard-workers have imigrated and will imigrate outside of Portugal. Where the hell is the pride to be portuguese? The government needs to read some history.
For a minute there I thought you were the describing the United States of America. The fact is most states today (North America and Europe) are living on borrowed time. The modern welfare state is dead mate. Most states today are borrowing heavily, Portugal is no different. Mark my words, you wait until Spain seeks a bailout. Unemployment is running at 20% and their deficit and debt is enormous.
I've been hearing people talk about Portugal Annexing with Brazil and disjoining the EU Made me laugh.
Too true, things are getting tight in the US as well with several states in dire straits. As for Spain, it follows all the PIIGS will be in the same boat: Portugal Ireland Italy Greece and Spain... with 3 of the 5 already big headlines. Only a matter of time that Spain follows and next Italy. Now I'm depressed. Time for beer.
its a joke...but I'm thoroughly embarrassed that our politicians are a bunch of muppets. Of all the colonial powers who had imperial outposts in the past (Spain-Latin America, Netherlands-Indonesia and India, Italy-Somalia, Belgium-Congo, UK to a certain extent, but can still survive on their own) Portugal is the only one that looks to their former colonies for a handout. Straight up no shame from these pigs. Now, the optimist will say that Portugal did the best job colonizing, thats why Brazil is so successful. To a certain extent, sure. But how's about you focus on your own country finances rather than playing with taxpayers money like its the monopoly variety and then go ask little brother for a handout to feed your 'cocaine fix' aka making boneheaded decisions. I can't believe people were actually petitioning to build a new airport in Lisbon and the TGV connection. How the ******** do you think people in this state are going to afford something like that? Why isn't anyone asking "do we really need this"? This reminds me of some people in my town back home (a microchosim of Portugal really) who spend all their money on the front of the house (BMW, Mercedes, nice stuccoed facades, statues, cast iron gates) but their house is a shit hole! WAKE THE ******** UP! Spend money on essentials, infrastructure that you actually need...then get some investors who will see that you are stable rather than worrying about having to line the pockets of assholes looking for a handout in the government. I'm ranting, but this makes my blood boil.
It's the culture. Live beyond your means then complain the country sucks because you have no money yet still go to Algarve or Dominican Republic every year
Bonds raised to a new high today of 8 %, making likely that Portugal will have even more trouble securing financing. In my opinion that are 3 main problems with Portugal. 1. The government structure is ridiculous. Portugal have something like double the number of senators compared to Canada. They are all paid very very high salaries in comparison to other industrialized countries. Hell I was reading that our representatives, get higher salaries then Obama, the president of the United States. 2. Portugal's economy is in pretty bad shape, and it has been for a while. The country has reported 5 consecutive years of ~1 % growth. 2010 GDP was expected to be 1.4 %, and those are relatively high assumptions. Portugal has been running a trade deficit for the past few years as well and the public was over 80 % of GDP in 2009. 3. We lack our own fiscal policy to correct inflation, and price points. Once we adopted the EURO, we gave up the monetary freedom and fiscal tools to allow our economy to fix itself. Our currency is now pegged with other nations in the Euro Union, with the EU determining interest rates across the free trade area. As a result, the nation may suffer from increased inflation, , and paying more for goods despite the appreciating Euro. As this Euro appreciate, exporting becomes less attractive, and tourism from countries outside the EU becomes less common.
Absolutely correct. However, on the third point (while you are correct) there are other tools the government can use to help grow the economy. These would mostly be in the form of incentives/tax breaks for firms to invest and build a stronger infrastructure. I'd be careful of applying the same policies that Ireland used, which worked great for a while. You have to have private enterprise to succesfully build a sustainable economy. One of my cousins got his college degree in physiotherapy/nutrition in England and came back. He was supporting all the policies Portugal had implemented and didn't want the "poor people" to starve. I then walked him through a business case (his own dream of opening up a gym/nutrition center) and showed him how current policies precluded him from doing this and actually penalized more as his business grew, employed more people and become successful. He was a little disturbed by the end of it. He was better off training people under the table and not trying to start a legit biz.
I didn't know that about the business aspect. If thats the case thats just absurd... Anyways, Portugal has officialy asked the Euro IMF for a Bailout. They didn't ask for a specific amount, but its expect to be in the region of 80 to 115 Billion Euros. Don't know how I feel about this...
It's all about the tax rates. The more people he hires the more he is absolute tax cost increases. You have to be able to generate larger profits to cover the extra expenses. If you have 2 workers, they won't necessarily each bring the same amount of revenues, and if you have diminishing returns then you are making less per worker for each additional worker which cuts your profits. Yes, your profits might increase but not exponentially...which means as a boss you work harder to cover a larger work force for less incremental profit. You may make more money overall, but the more you work the less you make per hour...so you are not as incentivized to work harder. I understand it's not the best business case, but it illustrates that there is no significantly greater rewards if you work harder. If you get paid $10/hour for 40 hours you know what you make. But if you only get paid an additional $5/hour after 40 hours and $2.50/hour after 50 hours...I'm pretty certain most people would stop working extra hours somewhere right below 50 hours. If you work 60 hours you make $75 more than if you worked 40 hours. But, you work an additional 20 hours to make what you generate in "regular time" 8 hours. Twice the work, half the pay? Give me the 40 hours, let me spend time with my family, go to Algarve in August, watch my futebol and eat my pasteis de nata and hope the government takes care of me when I'm old...sound familiar?
http://desporto.sapo.pt/futebol/pri...1/04/01/s_crates_vende_cristiano_ronaldo.html Sell Ronaldo to Spain ?
Recession breeds innovation. Portuguese film which was made on a budget of (allegedly) 27€ and a lot of trench digging sweat. [ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VhbFb1v-v7g]Comando[/ame]
You can still use the trenches to lay some water or sewage pipes, definitely a budget savings thinking-outside-of-the-box move.